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This article analyses the effects of government expenditures on German business cycle fluctuations by means of an estimated DSGE model based on low frequency oscillations. The results highlight that fiscal policy has a strong impact on the amplitude of fluctuations while hardly any on the duration of business cycles. To the extent that fiscal policy shocks are an important source for triggering economy-wide fluctuations, fiscal policy also strongly reacts to shocks originating elsewhere. Thus standard specifications of government expenditures in terms of simple AR(1) processes ignore the fact that there can indeed be a strong dependence of governmental variables on economic fluctuations. JEL Classification: C13, C32, E3, E62

This lecture is a tour d'horizon of the financial crisis aimed at extracting lessons for future financial regulation. It combines normative recommendations based on conventional welfare economics with positive assessments of the kind of measures likely to be adopted based on political economy considerations.

Zusammenfassung
Der vorliegende Aufsatz zielt auf die erstaunliche Vermutung, die in Politik und Wirtschaft ebenso wie in den Medien häufig genutzt wird. Dort wird so getan, als ob die Konjunktur zum Allgemeinwissen gehört. Davon abweichend wird dargelegt, dass es keine Evidenz für den Konjunkturzyklus gibt, dass es sich um eine Fiktion, um eine Einbildung handelt, die von statistischer Beobachtung inspiriert wird. Drei Verdikte von Hayek sprechen dafür, die Konjunkturpolitik und ihren gesetzlichen Rahmen einer kritischen Überprüfung zu unterziehen (1) "die Irrtümer der Makroökonomik", (2) "der keynesianische Traum" und (3) "die Anmaßung von Wissen".

The effectiveness of economic policies depends on the nature of expectations. Under adaptive expectations, the Philipps curve allows a governement to 'surprise' agents. Under rational expectations, there is less room for economic policies. We assume that only an (endogenously determined) proportion of agents form rational expectations and show that this leads the government to optimal policies which result in a policy cycle with real effects ; info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Written during the Second World War against the background of the economic and political futility of the 1930s, this book deals with the changing role of government, and particularly fiscal policy as an instrument for regulating the national income and its distribution. Arguing that the war had an economic basis - the inability of the great industrial nations to provide full employment at rising standards of real income - the book discusses how the failure to achieve a world order in the political sphere must be sought in the facts of economic frustration

Written during the Second World War against the background of the economic and political futility of the 1930s, this book deals with the changing role of government, and particularly fiscal policy as an instrument for regulating the national income and its distribution. Arguing that the war had an economic basis - the inability of the great industrial nations to provide full employment at rising standards of real income - the book discusses how the failure to achieve a world order in the political sphere must be sought in the facts of economic frustration.

Intro -- BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS AND ECONOMIC POLICY -- CONTENTS -- PREFACE -- ASYMMETRIC BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS VIA TIME SERIES MODELS AND NEURAL NETWORK LINEARITY TESTS -- ABSTRACT -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS -- 3. TIME SERIES LINEARITY TESTS -- 4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 5. CONCLUSION -- 6. REFERENCES -- NEURAL NETWORK FORECASTS EVALUATIONS AND BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS -- ABSTRACT -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. NEURAL NETWORKS -- 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 4. CONCLUSION -- 5. REFERENCES -- A ROBUST EVIDENCE OF BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRIES IN G7 COUNTRIES -- ABSTRACT -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. EMPIRICAL MODEL -- 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 4. CONCLUSION -- 5. REFERENCES -- ASYMMETRIC BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS AND CONTAGION EFFECTS IN G7 COUNTRIES -- ABSTRACT -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. EMPIRICAL MODEL: ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK -- 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 4. CONCLUSION -- 5. REFERENCES -- BUSINESS CYCLE ASYMMETRIES IN ASIAN ECONOMIES VIA NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS AND NEURAL NETWORKS -- ABSTRACT -- 1. INTRODUCTION -- 2. EMPIRICAL MODELS -- 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- 4. CONCLUSION -- 5. REFERENCES -- INDEX.