Suchergebnisse

A three-day joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections was held in Belgrade from 25 to 27 November 2019 and was hosted jointly by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the Minister in charge of Demography and Population Policy, and the Demographic Research Centre of the Institute of Social Sciences. This presented a great opportunity for participants from Serbia to take part in the meeting and exchange experiences with leading researchers and experts from around the world.

Barring a major catastrophe, the health services will have to provide for massive pop growth in the decades ahead. A reasonable forecast gives increases of 19% for the present decade & 44% for the period 1960-1980, with a corresponding increased need for Med services. This will be added to existing unfulfilled needs for the care of the aged & those suffering from chronic illness. The aged will continue to increase rapidly in number, but the largest absolute growth of pop will be among children & later, among young adults. Contrary to popular impressions, the greatest % increase in future need for Med services may well be in the treatment of acute conditions rather than chronic conditions more characteristic of the aged. Further, the general upward trend in soc & econ characteristics & expectations means an increased demand for all Med services over & above those arising from pop change. There will be a much larger pop, better informed & able to command improved Med services. Fortunately, demographic changes offer part of the solution as well as part of the problem; during the next decade, there will be a rapidly growing reservoir of young people from which to recruit nurses, doctors, & other health service personnel. AA.

Barring a major catastrophe, the health services will have to provide for massive population growth in the decades ahead. A reasonable forecast gives increases of 19 per cent for the present decade and 44 per cent for the period 1960-1980, with a corresponding increased need for medical services. This will be added to existing unfulfilled needs for the care of the aged and those suffering from chronic illness. The aged will continue to increase rapidly in number, but the largest absolute growth of population will be among children and, later, among young adults. Contrary to popular impres sions, the greatest percentage increase in future need for medical services may well be in the treatment of acute condi tions rather than chronic conditions more characteristic of the aged. Further, the general upward trend in social and eco nomic characteristics and expectations means an increased demand for all medical services over and above those arising from population change. There will be a much larger popu lation, better informed and better able to command improved medical services. Fortunately, demographic changes offer part of the solution as well as part of the problem. During the next decade, there will be a rapidly growing reservoir of young people from which to recruit nurses, doctors, and other health service personnel.

Intro -- Contents -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- The Value of Population Projections -- Projections, Forecasts, and Estimates: Definitions -- The Basic Demographic Equation -- Overview of the Book -- 2 Mathematical Extrapolation I -- The Linear Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Polynomial Functions -- Linear Transformation of a Polynomial Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- The Hyperbolic Function -- Linear Transformation of the Hyperbolic Function -- A Numerical Example -- Summary -- 3 Mathematical Extrapolation II -- The Modified Exponential Function -- Linear Transformation of the Modified Exponential Function -- A Numerical Illustration -- Mathematical Extrapolation: A Review -- Choosing among Extrapolations -- Measuring the Prediction Error -- A Four-Step Projection Procedure -- Summary -- 4 Comparative Methods -- Ratio Methods -- Constant Share Method -- Projected Share Methods -- Difference Methods -- Constant Difference Method -- Projected Difference Method -- Choosing among Methods -- Summary -- 5 The Cohort-Survival Population Model -- The Basic Cohort Model -- A Numerical Illustration -- An Algebraic Summary -- Mortality -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Death Rates -- Fertility -- Basic Measures -- Projecting Birth Rates -- Summary -- 6 Migration Models -- Basic Concepts -- Immigration and Emigration -- In-Migration and Out-Migration -- Gross and Net Migration -- Causes of Migration -- Estimating Past Migration -- Direct Estimation of Migration -- Indirect Estimation of Migration -- Projecting Future Migration -- Extrapolation of Past Trends -- Regression Models -- Summary -- 7 A Final Note -- Mathematical Extrapolation -- Comparative Methods -- The Cohort-Survival Model -- Migration Models -- Summary.

Is education the best contraceptive? Using the multistate human capital projection model, our analysis shows that the projected changes in India population vary depending on investments in education and helping women reduce unwanted fertility rates, that investments in both education and helping women in each education category—but particularly less educated women—meet their wanted fertility will have the largest impacts on India's population projections, and that the impact from investment in reducing unwanted fertility will be much more immediate and significant than only investments in education. Our analysis also reveals that an increasing education transition rate in India will not only help to achieve a population age structure that is favorable for economic growth, but also result in a larger share of skilled labor force that help to achieve higher economic growth rate. More importantly, investment in girls' education and achieving gender equality in education will be the most effective measure to increase India's population education level and improve its overall values of human capital.