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Trade Hyperglobalization is Dead. Long Live…?
In: Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 23-11
SSRN
Understanding protectionism: Empirical analysis of protectionist attitudes in the EU
A changing landscape in trade policy in recent years is undoubtedly related to changing voter preferences. Based on Eurobarometer survey data, the present paper investigates both the factors determining the level of support for protectionism and the striking inconsistency of responses to questions related to free trade and protectionism. EU citizens are more likely to support protectionism when the economy runs smoothly and rejects protectionism if the national economy is not in the best shape. Unemployment, bad economic situations as well as negative feelings regarding immigration are identified as possible reasons to call for protectionism while respondents are favouring free trade at the same time. The inconsistent attitudes toward free trade and protectionism are a matter of lacking knowledge of political issues. Better educated EU citizens are all less likely to support free trade and protectionism at the same time. This applies to respondents who show a higher level of knowledge regarding basic EU-related facts as well as to those who discuss political matters with friends more often. A possible way to tackle this problem is a broad information strategy covering the topics of international econom-ics across several media channels. Especially radio, press and internet are identified as media which seem to contribute to a better understanding of these complex issues.
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Governance over economics: Making globalisation good for the poor
Abstract. The paper employs different definitions of inequality/ equality and investigates how globalisation is associated with these welfare measures. The nations' proximity to post modernism development culture through international cooperation may enable countries to strengthen their social, economic, legal and political institutions. We find that adopting well developed institutional governance practices as matter of greater integration with modern 21st century governance culture creates thriving middle classes in developing countries enabling a downward pressure on inequality of incomes and wages. In contrast, integration of goods and services with world markets puts upward pressure on the wages of skilled in contrast with the unskilled causing industrial wage inequalities in both developed and developing countries. The paper recommends in line with the recent literature on pre mature de industrialisation phenomenon that countries may protect their local industries to provide jobs to locals and thus enable the gains of trade to be more equally distributed among the populations. This can be done by choosing the second best option towards global integration and that is to promote regionalism within geographical clusters.Keywords. Globalisation, Governance, Middle Class, Inequality.JEL. F60, G30, G38.
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Free Trade and FDI in Kosovo: Prospects for Integration into the EU and Turkish Production Networks
Abstract. Kosovo has recently signed two major trade agreements, the SAA with the EU, andan FTA with Turkey. However, as the experience from developing countries shows, trade liberalisation is a precondition, but it does not ensure economic growth and prosperity, especially when the supply-side constraints limit country's ability to reap the benefits of free trade. Violencein the nineties; years of underperforming post-war institutions; the neglect of policy reforms, especially poorly managed privatisation process; reduced greatly Kosovo's industrial base and its manufacturing capacities. Moreover, these factors, coupled with problems with the rule of law, produced a high-risk environment that is deterring the inflow of foreign capital. Following the signing of the two agreements, one can expect that Kosovo will become more attractive tothe European and Turkish investors. In addition to other benefits, the flow of foreign capital may enable Kosovo's industries to integrate intothe global value chains. However, as with free trade, the impact of FDI inflow and the integration into global value chains depend largely on domestic market conditions. This paper provides a discussion on the developments regarding trade liberalisation and FDI, and the opportunities the latter create on the integration of Kosovo's industries into global production networks. In terms of policy directions, the paper argues that, although the trade liberalisation will act as a pull factor, the existingstructural impediments in Kosovo will mostlikely limit the flow of foreign capital and the impact of the existing FDI in Kosovo, specifically, integration into global value chains.Keywords. Trade liberalisation, FDI, GVC, Kosovo.JEL. F15, F23, F60.
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Covid-19 and capital flows: The responses of investors to the responses of governments
This paper examines the effect of national government response measures to Covid-19 on German international capital flows. Analyzing highly disaggregated monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics over the period from January 2019 through January 2021, we find that bilateral financial interactions are negatively affected by stricter containment and closure policies as well as health system policies of a partner country, while German capital flows benefit from a partner's economic support policies. Moreover, to the extent that public interventions to fight the pandemic affect financial interactions, the adjustment mainly takes place along the intensive margin.
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Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments
This paper examines the effect of national government response measures to Covid-19 on German international capital flows. Analyzing highly disaggregated monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics over the period from January 2019 through January 2021, we find that bilateral financial interactions are negatively affected by stricter containment and closure policies as well as health system policies of a partner country, while German capital flows benefit from a partner's economic support policies. Moreover, to the extent that public interventions to fight the pandemic affect financial interactions, the adjustment mainly takes place along the intensive margin.
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Covid-19 and capital flows: He responses of investors to the responses of governments
This paper examines the effect of national government response measures to Covid-19 on German international capital flows. Analyzing highly disaggregated monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics over the period from January 2019 through January 2021, we find that bilateral financial interactions are negatively affected by stricter containment and closure policies as well as health system policies of a partner country, while German capital flows benefit from a partner's economic support policies. Moreover, to the extent that public interventions to fight the pandemic affect financial interactions, the adjustment mainly takes place along the intensive margin.
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Angst im Aufschwung
Deutschland hat zehn Jahre ohne Rezession hinter sich. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist drastisch zurückgegangen. Selbst die Einkommen steigen kräftig. Trotzdem deuten das Kriseln der großen Parteien, diverse Umfragen und der Aufstieg der Alternative für Deutschland auf eine tieferliegende Unzufriedenheit hin. Hat dieser Unmut ganz andere Gründe, als Folge der Zuwanderung der vergangenen Jahre eher kulturelle? Oder gibt es doch sozio-ökonomische Fakten wie etwa ein Gefühl des Kontrollverlusts in Zeiten fortgeschrittener Globalisierung? Eine repräsentative Umfrage lässt auf letzteres schließen – und auf eine sehr viel profundere Krise des Paradigmas, das über drei Jahrzehnte Wirtschaftspolitik und Globalisierung geprägt hat.
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Working paper
Globalization and Cultural Identity Dilemmas
This paper aims to present an important phenomenon of our world, namely the contradictory relationship between globalization and cultural identity. In this work identity is understood as a cultural practice therefore it cannot be analyzed without taking into account global communication and diversity. The multidimensional transformation of our society in the XXI century is marked by increased interconnectivity and affirmation of singular identities. These identities come in constant tension with the context in which the existing political forms that are in crisis and the restructuring processes through new projects are struggling to set up a new society. Globalization versus cultural identity it's not a zero-sum game even though the two might be perceived as opposite processes this paper argue that it globalization cultural identity can go hand in hand with globalization.
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Pulin B. Nayak, Economic Development of India
Abstract. The paradigm shift in economic policy in the 1990s elicited a tremendous interest in the pace and pattern of economic development of India. Indian economic policies as also the process of her development is being closely monitored and written about by academics, global institutions, think tanks, media, political analysts and civil society within and outside the country. The development issues of erstwhile British colonies did not attract adequate academic attention for the most part of the twentieth century. A four volume compendium of 75 papers giving a comprehensive account of the development process of the Indian economy by Pulin Nayak is a timely and valuable contribution to the pool of studies being carried out on India in different parts of the globe. Introduction to the four volume book reflects the scholarship of the author, which will be of immense academic value to anyone who is interested in the historical backdrop of the development path chosen by the Indian leaders after Independence of the country in 1947. It builds on the discourse of development economics for low income countries.Keywords. Economic Development, Indian economy.JEL. F60, F63, I15, I25, N01, O00, O10.
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The costs and benefits of leaving the EU
What would be the economic effects of the UK leaving the European Union on living standards of British people? We focus on the effects of trade on welfare net of lower fiscal transfers to the EU. We use a standard quantitative static general equilibrium trade model with multiple sectors, countries and intermediates, as in Costinot and Rodriguez-Clare (2013). Static losses range between 1.13% and 3.09% of GDP, depending on the assumptions used in our counterfactual scenarios. Including dynamic effects could more than double such losses.
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Regional Variations in the Brexit Vote: Causes and Potential Consequences
There were large regional differentials in the Brexit vote. Most notably, the percentage voting to leave the EU ranged from 38% in Scotland and 40% in London to 59% in the East and West Midlands. Turnout also varied across Britain, from a low of 67% in Scotland to 77% in the South East and South West. Existing empirical studies have tended to focus on the demographic composition of geographical areas to identify the key socio-economic characteristics in explaining spatial and other variations in the leave vote - with age and education found to be important drivers. We use the British Social Attitudes Survey to provide a more nuanced picture of regional differences in the Brexit vote by examining in particular the role that national identity and attitudes towards immigration played. In addition to education, we find that national identity exerted a strong influence on the probability voting leave in several English regions, including the East, North East, London and South East. Whereas, over and above this, concerns about immigration had a quantitatively large and highly significant impact in all regions bar London, and the East to a lesser extent. Differences by country of birth are also explored, with national identity and concerns about immigration having a larger impact for the English-born. Our findings are then discussed in the light of changes that have affected regional economies during the process of increased globalisation, austerity, the current Covid-19 crisis and recent UK government announcements to rebalance the economy.
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Low-wage import competition and populist backlash: The case of Italy
This paper empirically studies the role of trade globalization in shifting the electoral base towards populism. We proxy trade shock with swiftly rising import competition from China and compare the voting pattern at the parliamentary national elections from 1992 to 2013 in about 8,000 Italian municipalities differently exposed to the trade shock. We instrument import competition with Chinese export flows to other high-income countries and estimate the model in first differences. Our results indicate that trade globalization increases support for populist parties, besides fostering a tendency to cast invalid votes or even abstain from voting. To rationalize these findings, we offer evidence that import competition worsens labor market conditions - higher unemployment, lower income and durable consumption - and increases inequality. Finally, we point out that public expenditure plays a role in mitigating the political consequences of the trade shock, arguably because it alleviates economic distress. ; Dieses Papier untersucht empirisch die Bedeutung der Handelsglobalisierung für die Entwicklung populistischer Tendenzen. Wir betrachten den schnell zunehmenden Importwettbewerb aus China stellvertretend für den Handelsschock und vergleichen das Abstimmungsverhalten bei den Parlamentswahlen von 1992 bis 2013 in rund 8,000 italienischen Gemeinden, die dem Handelsschock unterschiedlich stark ausgesetzt sind. Wir nutzen chinesische Exportströme in andere Länder mit hohen Einkommen als Instrumentvariable für Importe aus China nach Italien und schätzen ein First-Differences-Modell. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Handelsglobalisierung die Zustimmung bei der Wahl populistischer Parteien begünstigt und darüber hinaus die Tendenz fördert, ungültige Stimmen abzugeben oder sich sogar der Stimme zu enthalten. Um diese Ergebnisse zu erklären, liefern wir Belege dafür, dass der Importwettbewerb die Arbeitsbedingungen verschlechtert - höhere Arbeitslosigkeit, geringeres Einkommen und weniger Ausgaben für langlebigen Konsum - und das Einkommensgefälle verschärft. Schließlich weisen wir darauf hin, dass vermehrte öffentliche Ausgaben eine Rolle bei der Milderung der politischen Folgen des Handelsschocks spielen, wohl weil sie die wirtschaftliche Misere der Wähler lindern.
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