Suchergebnisse

The agricultural sector is the primary economic sector. Therefore, the production factors released form the agricultural production process can be employed in the remaining economic sectors, thus generating additional gross value added. In addition, substantial public support is allocated for the agricultural sector. As in the European Union, these processes are regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy. Consequently, researches in the agricultural efficiency are of great importance from the economic standpoint. Indeed, the conventional methods of the efficiency analysis suffer from certain caveats. Accordingly it is important to employ the robust mathematical - statistical methods. This paper aims to establish a methodology for analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency, based on the robust frontier and econometric methods. The paper discusses the following methodological issues: the measures of efficiency and models for efficiency analysis, methodology of the agricultural efficiency analysis. Some state-of-the art frontier methods are presented, namely partial frontiers, double bootstrap, conditional measures of efficiency, multi-directional efficiency analysis. As a result, the proposed methodology for the analysis of Lithuanian family farm efficiency enables to estimate both aggregate efficiency along with its determinants and the input-specific efficiencies. The aggregate efficiency was estimated by the means of the double bootstrap, whereas the multi-directional efficiency analysis was employed to estimate the input-specific efficiencies. The proposed methodology was employed to a sample of Lithuanian family farms.

The agricultural sector is the primary economic sector. Therefore, the production factors released form the agricultural production process can be employed in the remaining economic sectors, thus generating additional gross value added. In addition, substantial public support is allocated for the agricultural sector. As in the European Union, these processes are regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy. Consequently, researches in the agricultural efficiency are of great importance from the economic standpoint. Indeed, the conventional methods of the efficiency analysis suffer from certain caveats. Accordingly it is important to employ the robust mathematical - statistical methods. This paper aims to establish a methodology for analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency, based on the robust frontier and econometric methods. The paper discusses the following methodological issues: the measures of efficiency and models for efficiency analysis, methodology of the agricultural efficiency analysis. Some state-of-the art frontier methods are presented, namely partial frontiers, double bootstrap, conditional measures of efficiency, multi-directional efficiency analysis. As a result, the proposed methodology for the analysis of Lithuanian family farm efficiency enables to estimate both aggregate efficiency along with its determinants and the input-specific efficiencies. The aggregate efficiency was estimated by the means of the double bootstrap, whereas the multi-directional efficiency analysis was employed to estimate the input-specific efficiencies. The proposed methodology was employed to a sample of Lithuanian family farms.

The agricultural sector is the primary economic sector. Therefore, the production factors released form the agricultural production process can be employed in the remaining economic sectors, thus generating additional gross value added. In addition, substantial public support is allocated for the agricultural sector. As in the European Union, these processes are regulated by the Common Agricultural Policy. Consequently, researches in the agricultural efficiency are of great importance from the economic standpoint. Indeed, the conventional methods of the efficiency analysis suffer from certain caveats. Accordingly it is important to employ the robust mathematical - statistical methods. This paper aims to establish a methodology for analysis of the productive agricultural efficiency, based on the robust frontier and econometric methods. The paper discusses the following methodological issues: the measures of efficiency and models for efficiency analysis, methodology of the agricultural efficiency analysis. Some state-of-the art frontier methods are presented, namely partial frontiers, double bootstrap, conditional measures of efficiency, multi-directional efficiency analysis. As a result, the proposed methodology for the analysis of Lithuanian family farm efficiency enables to estimate both aggregate efficiency along with its determinants and the input-specific efficiencies. The aggregate efficiency was estimated by the means of the double bootstrap, whereas the multi-directional efficiency analysis was employed to estimate the input-specific efficiencies. The proposed methodology was employed to a sample of Lithuanian family farms.

In order to assess how Baltic region electricity power sector may change in the future, depending on the different fossil fuel prices and European Union's carbon dioxide emission reduction objectives, prospective analysis was carried out. In this Master's theses existing research on prospective development of Baltic region power sector was reviewed. Also analysis was carried out on the current electricity sector situation in 9 Baltic region countries (Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany). Analysis of Baltic region coutries' power sector prospective development is based on created mathematical optimization model using MESSAGE software. In this work there is a detailed description of modelling principles. 4 possible scenarios were analysed by using created mathematical optimization model: low, medium and high fossil fuel price scenarios and a scenario with removed restrictions in which there are no limitations on construction of new nuclear power plants and EU's CO2 emission reduction targets are not considered. Time period from 2016 to 2045 was simulated. Simulation results of 4 different scenarios are presented for Baltic region as a whole and for each country individually.

In order to assess how Baltic region electricity power sector may change in the future, depending on the different fossil fuel prices and European Union's carbon dioxide emission reduction objectives, prospective analysis was carried out. In this Master's theses existing research on prospective development of Baltic region power sector was reviewed. Also analysis was carried out on the current electricity sector situation in 9 Baltic region countries (Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany). Analysis of Baltic region coutries' power sector prospective development is based on created mathematical optimization model using MESSAGE software. In this work there is a detailed description of modelling principles. 4 possible scenarios were analysed by using created mathematical optimization model: low, medium and high fossil fuel price scenarios and a scenario with removed restrictions in which there are no limitations on construction of new nuclear power plants and EU's CO2 emission reduction targets are not considered. Time period from 2016 to 2045 was simulated. Simulation results of 4 different scenarios are presented for Baltic region as a whole and for each country individually.

In order to assess how Baltic region electricity power sector may change in the future, depending on the different fossil fuel prices and European Union's carbon dioxide emission reduction objectives, prospective analysis was carried out. In this Master's theses existing research on prospective development of Baltic region power sector was reviewed. Also analysis was carried out on the current electricity sector situation in 9 Baltic region countries (Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany). Analysis of Baltic region coutries' power sector prospective development is based on created mathematical optimization model using MESSAGE software. In this work there is a detailed description of modelling principles. 4 possible scenarios were analysed by using created mathematical optimization model: low, medium and high fossil fuel price scenarios and a scenario with removed restrictions in which there are no limitations on construction of new nuclear power plants and EU's CO2 emission reduction targets are not considered. Time period from 2016 to 2045 was simulated. Simulation results of 4 different scenarios are presented for Baltic region as a whole and for each country individually.

In order to assess how Baltic region electricity power sector may change in the future, depending on the different fossil fuel prices and European Union's carbon dioxide emission reduction objectives, prospective analysis was carried out. In this Master's theses existing research on prospective development of Baltic region power sector was reviewed. Also analysis was carried out on the current electricity sector situation in 9 Baltic region countries (Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Germany). Analysis of Baltic region coutries' power sector prospective development is based on created mathematical optimization model using MESSAGE software. In this work there is a detailed description of modelling principles. 4 possible scenarios were analysed by using created mathematical optimization model: low, medium and high fossil fuel price scenarios and a scenario with removed restrictions in which there are no limitations on construction of new nuclear power plants and EU's CO2 emission reduction targets are not considered. Time period from 2016 to 2045 was simulated. Simulation results of 4 different scenarios are presented for Baltic region as a whole and for each country individually.

The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in Lithuania). The objective of this dissertation is to develop the compound methodology of profit tax modelling and predicting, based on the use of legal information, economic information, and analysis of statistical relations. The main attention is paid to the analysis of profit tax revenue and the two-stage modelling methodology is presented here. Financed by the Lithuanian State Fund of Science and Studies, the project of "Mathematical Models of Lithuanian Economy to Predict Processes of Macroeconomy", aimed at the creation of a macroeconometric model of Lithuanian economy, have been pursued for several years. The system of equations of the government finances sector is an important part of the project and the last part of the dissertation is dedicated to its formation.

The accurate (exact) prediction of tax revenue is a very important task for state budget planning. Both underestimation and overestimation of the planned revenue could cause problems in case the revenue is used to finance government functions. In the past few years planning of profit tax revenue was not very exact: the sum of the profit tax collected was considerably smaller or considerably larger than the planned profit tax revenue. The difference between the actual and planned revenue was about 12–56 % every year. There are several related factors which aggravate profit tax revenue modelling. It is doubtful if the indicator of profit tax revenue is stationary. The assumption of the stationarity of indicators is usually made when applying econometric models to the indicators. This problem is caused by a frequent change of the Profit tax law. In addition, transitional processes, invoked by privatization, integration to EU, and etc were typical of the Lithuanian economy in the past few years. Therefore very general equations used to describe the profit tax revenue of macroeconometric models of many countries are not relevant to model and predict the profit tax revenue in Lithuania. In order to predict budget revenues accurately, their modelling methodology needs to be created so as to be effective in the situation where regression relations are complicated while disposable series of observations are rather short (the quarterly profit indicators have been known since 1998 in Lithuania). The objective of this dissertation is to develop the compound methodology of profit tax modelling and predicting, based on the use of legal information, economic information, and analysis of statistical relations. The main attention is paid to the analysis of profit tax revenue and the two-stage modelling methodology is presented here. Financed by the Lithuanian State Fund of Science and Studies, the project of "Mathematical Models of Lithuanian Economy to Predict Processes of Macroeconomy", aimed at the creation of a macroeconometric model of Lithuanian economy, have been pursued for several years. The system of equations of the government finances sector is an important part of the project and the last part of the dissertation is dedicated to its formation.

A new United Nations sustainable development Agenda underlines the relevance of Organic farming development. In the same line the Government of the Republic of Lithuania seeks to create economically efficient and competitive agriculture, based on low environmental impact farming, to develop organic farming and high quality certified agricultural and food production, conserve natural resources. Transition to the sustainable agricultural development faces the main difficulty, which is formulated as a scientific problem: how to reconcile the economic and political interests? This research is carried out by the purpose to offer alternative possibilities for organic farming development. The research was carried out using mathematical programming model and scenario analysis. Model is formulated as a linear mathematical programming optimization model, consisting of objective function, constraints, expressed as inequalities and fulfilling non-negative values conditions. The model includes existing and results provide the maximum gross value added ensuring crop production structure, taking in to account farming practices applied in Lithuania: conventional, organic, organic in conversion and integrated. The analysis of three scenarios has shown that the majority of compensatory payments and prices of organic production (2013) are insufficient to increase organic crop area to the extent of 10 percent of total agricultural land in Lithuania by 2020: only by one third (31 percent) higher organic production prices, lead to reached 10.5 percent of organic crop area from the total agricultural land. The research results provide scientifically based knowledge to the policy makers about the impact of the policy measure "Organic farming" on the development of organic farming.

A new United Nations sustainable development Agenda underlines the relevance of Organic farming development. In the same line the Government of the Republic of Lithuania seeks to create economically efficient and competitive agriculture, based on low environmental impact farming, to develop organic farming and high quality certified agricultural and food production, conserve natural resources. Transition to the sustainable agricultural development faces the main difficulty, which is formulated as a scientific problem: how to reconcile the economic and political interests? This research is carried out by the purpose to offer alternative possibilities for organic farming development. The research was carried out using mathematical programming model and scenario analysis. Model is formulated as a linear mathematical programming optimization model, consisting of objective function, constraints, expressed as inequalities and fulfilling non-negative values conditions. The model includes existing and results provide the maximum gross value added ensuring crop production structure, taking in to account farming practices applied in Lithuania: conventional, organic, organic in conversion and integrated. The analysis of three scenarios has shown that the majority of compensatory payments and prices of organic production (2013) are insufficient to increase organic crop area to the extent of 10 percent of total agricultural land in Lithuania by 2020: only by one third (31 percent) higher organic production prices, lead to reached 10.5 percent of organic crop area from the total agricultural land. The research results provide scientifically based knowledge to the policy makers about the impact of the policy measure "Organic farming" on the development of organic farming.

The dissertation investigates issues related with the assessment of impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector in absence of theoretical foundation for addressing the practical problem of matching between private economic and public policy interests. The aim of the research is to create and approve the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector. The area of application of the prepared methodology and the developed model is simulations of agricultural policy. The prepared model may also be used as a practical and methodical tool. The dissertation addresses the following key objectives: having analysed the scientific literature, to pursue the most appropriate methods for the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures, to create the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental, based on neoclassical theories of microeconomics and economy of ecosystems mathematical programming model, and validate it empirically under the conditions of Lithuania, to carry out sensitivity analysis by using different scenarios, to prepare recommendations for the improvement of agri-environmental measures aimed at contributing to the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Lithuania. The dissertation consists of the introduction, three chapters, general conclusions, references and the list of scientific publications on the topic of the dissertation. The introduction presents the problem, relevance of the topic, describes the object, formulates the aim and objectives of the re-search, describes the research methodology, highlights the scientific novelty, practical value, significance of the results and statements to be defended. Scientific publications of the author and presentations at conferences on the topic of the dissertation, and the structure of the thesis are presented at the end of the introduction. The first chapter reveals the matter of agri-environmental measures, theoretical assumptions of their introduction, historical and political developments in the European Union and Lithuania, discussing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, and impact assessment methods. The second chapter offers the methodology of impact assessment of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, highlights problems, evaluates the effectiveness of compensatory payments and the benefit for the public interest. Describes the developed mathematical programming model, presents its structure, modeling assumptions, verification and modeled scenarios. The third chapter presents the analysis and evaluation of the modeled scenarios. The author has published one scientific study and three scientific articles on the topic of the dissertation, made three presentations at scientific conferences in Lithuania and one presentation abroad.

The dissertation investigates issues related with the assessment of impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector in absence of theoretical foundation for addressing the practical problem of matching between private economic and public policy interests. The aim of the research is to create and approve the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector. The area of application of the prepared methodology and the developed model is simulations of agricultural policy. The prepared model may also be used as a practical and methodical tool. The dissertation addresses the following key objectives: having analysed the scientific literature, to pursue the most appropriate methods for the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures, to create the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental, based on neoclassical theories of microeconomics and economy of ecosystems mathematical programming model, and validate it empirically under the conditions of Lithuania, to carry out sensitivity analysis by using different scenarios, to prepare recommendations for the improvement of agri-environmental measures aimed at contributing to the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Lithuania. The dissertation consists of the introduction, three chapters, general conclusions, references and the list of scientific publications on the topic of the dissertation. The introduction presents the problem, relevance of the topic, describes the object, formulates the aim and objectives of the re-search, describes the research methodology, highlights the scientific novelty, practical value, significance of the results and statements to be defended. Scientific publications of the author and presentations at conferences on the topic of the dissertation, and the structure of the thesis are presented at the end of the introduction. The first chapter reveals the matter of agri-environmental measures, theoretical assumptions of their introduction, historical and political developments in the European Union and Lithuania, discussing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, and impact assessment methods. The second chapter offers the methodology of impact assessment of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, highlights problems, evaluates the effectiveness of compensatory payments and the benefit for the public interest. Describes the developed mathematical programming model, presents its structure, modeling assumptions, verification and modeled scenarios. The third chapter presents the analysis and evaluation of the modeled scenarios. The author has published one scientific study and three scientific articles on the topic of the dissertation, made three presentations at scientific conferences in Lithuania and one presentation abroad.

The dissertation investigates issues related with the assessment of impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector in absence of theoretical foundation for addressing the practical problem of matching between private economic and public policy interests. The aim of the research is to create and approve the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector. The area of application of the prepared methodology and the developed model is simulations of agricultural policy. The prepared model may also be used as a practical and methodical tool. The dissertation addresses the following key objectives: having analysed the scientific literature, to pursue the most appropriate methods for the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures, to create the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental, based on neoclassical theories of microeconomics and economy of ecosystems mathematical programming model, and validate it empirically under the conditions of Lithuania, to carry out sensitivity analysis by using different scenarios, to prepare recommendations for the improvement of agri-environmental measures aimed at contributing to the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Lithuania. The dissertation consists of the introduction, three chapters, general conclusions, references and the list of scientific publications on the topic of the dissertation. The introduction presents the problem, relevance of the topic, describes the object, formulates the aim and objectives of the re-search, describes the research methodology, highlights the scientific novelty, practical value, significance of the results and statements to be defended. Scientific publications of the author and presentations at conferences on the topic of the dissertation, and the structure of the thesis are presented at the end of the introduction. The first chapter reveals the matter of agri-environmental measures, theoretical assumptions of their introduction, historical and political developments in the European Union and Lithuania, discussing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, and impact assessment methods. The second chapter offers the methodology of impact assessment of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, highlights problems, evaluates the effectiveness of compensatory payments and the benefit for the public interest. Describes the developed mathematical programming model, presents its structure, modeling assumptions, verification and modeled scenarios. The third chapter presents the analysis and evaluation of the modeled scenarios. The author has published one scientific study and three scientific articles on the topic of the dissertation, made three presentations at scientific conferences in Lithuania and one presentation abroad.

The dissertation investigates issues related with the assessment of impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector in absence of theoretical foundation for addressing the practical problem of matching between private economic and public policy interests. The aim of the research is to create and approve the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector. The area of application of the prepared methodology and the developed model is simulations of agricultural policy. The prepared model may also be used as a practical and methodical tool. The dissertation addresses the following key objectives: having analysed the scientific literature, to pursue the most appropriate methods for the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental measures, to create the methodology for assessing the impact of agri-environmental, based on neoclassical theories of microeconomics and economy of ecosystems mathematical programming model, and validate it empirically under the conditions of Lithuania, to carry out sensitivity analysis by using different scenarios, to prepare recommendations for the improvement of agri-environmental measures aimed at contributing to the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Lithuania. The dissertation consists of the introduction, three chapters, general conclusions, references and the list of scientific publications on the topic of the dissertation. The introduction presents the problem, relevance of the topic, describes the object, formulates the aim and objectives of the re-search, describes the research methodology, highlights the scientific novelty, practical value, significance of the results and statements to be defended. Scientific publications of the author and presentations at conferences on the topic of the dissertation, and the structure of the thesis are presented at the end of the introduction. The first chapter reveals the matter of agri-environmental measures, theoretical assumptions of their introduction, historical and political developments in the European Union and Lithuania, discussing the impact of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, and impact assessment methods. The second chapter offers the methodology of impact assessment of agri-environmental measures on agricultural sector, highlights problems, evaluates the effectiveness of compensatory payments and the benefit for the public interest. Describes the developed mathematical programming model, presents its structure, modeling assumptions, verification and modeled scenarios. The third chapter presents the analysis and evaluation of the modeled scenarios. The author has published one scientific study and three scientific articles on the topic of the dissertation, made three presentations at scientific conferences in Lithuania and one presentation abroad.