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Foreign-imposed Regime Change and the American War in Afghanistan
In: Political science quarterly: a nonpartisan journal devoted to the study and analysis of government, politics and international affairs ; PSQ
ISSN: 1538-165X
Abstract
Why did America's twenty-year war in Afghanistan fail to establish a self-sustaining non-Taliban government? Analysts have cited cultural obstacles in Afghanistan, bureaucratic inertia in Washington, and a lack of strategic commitment, in part because Iraq dominated national security policy. Such claims tend to draw evidence from Germany, Japan, and Iraq, places where the U.S. military achieved some measure of success establishing pro-American governments. The present article broadens the comparison to consider Afghanistan alongside Germany, Japan, Iraq, and two examples of post-Cold War regime-change success: Panama (1989–1990) and Haiti (1994–1995). The cases indicate that U.S. influence in the postwar environment has depended on the prospects for integrating old regime elites into the new government and on the strength of indigenous opposition forces. Both variables were unfavorable in Afghanistan, and they shaped the boundaries of political order—no matter how hard U.S. forces fought or how long they stayed.
Cognitive shortcuts and public support for intervention
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 64, Heft 2-3, S. 261-289
ISSN: 1552-8766
Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own "pretty prudent" conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data set of aggregate US public opinion, covering 1,080 nationally representative survey items about launching operations, across thirty-five countries, during 1981 to 2016. Tests show that PPO matters: pursuing "internal policy change" is less popular than restraining international aggression. However, language reflecting White House cues and one prominent cognitive shortcut (the "availability heuristic") statistically and substantively outperforms PPO at predicting intervention support. The results indicate that when ordinary Americans are polled about using force against salient foes (Saddam Hussein, al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), elements of bounded rationality can overtake the prudence expressed toward less vivid problems.
World Affairs Online
Jordan and the Arab Uprisings: Regime Survival and Politics Beyond the State. By Curtis R. Ryan. New York: Columbia University Press, 2018. 296p. $90.00 cloth, $30.00 paper
In: Perspectives on politics, Band 17, Heft 4, S. 1229-1230
ISSN: 1541-0986
Cognitive Shortcuts and Public Support for Intervention
In: The journal of conflict resolution: journal of the Peace Science Society (International), Band 64, Heft 2-3, S. 261-289
ISSN: 1552-8766
Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own "pretty prudent" conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data set of aggregate US public opinion, covering 1,080 nationally representative survey items about launching operations, across thirty-five countries, during 1981 to 2016. Tests show that PPO matters: pursuing "internal policy change" is less popular than restraining international aggression. However, language reflecting White House cues and one prominent cognitive shortcut (the "availability heuristic") statistically and substantively outperforms PPO at predicting intervention support. The results indicate that when ordinary Americans are polled about using force against salient foes (Saddam Hussein, al-Qaeda, Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), elements of bounded rationality can overtake the prudence expressed toward less vivid problems.
Social relationships and the prevention of anti-christian violence in Egypt
In: The Middle East journal, Band 72, Heft 1, S. 66-88
ISSN: 1940-3461
World Affairs Online
The limited reach of authoritarian powers
In: Democratization, Band 24, Heft 7, S. 1326-1344
ISSN: 1743-890X
Paths Out of Dixie: The Democratization of Authoritarian Enclaves in America's Deep South, 1944–1972. By Robert Mickey. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2015
In: The journal of politics: JOP, Band 79, Heft 1, S. e29-e30
ISSN: 1468-2508
Mariz Tadros. Copts at the Crossroads: The Challenges of Building Inclusive Democracy in Egypt. Cairo and New York: The American University in Cairo Press, 2013. 320 pages, acknowledgements, notes, bibliography, index. Paper US$29.50 ISBN 978-977-416-591-7
In: Review of Middle East studies, Band 48, Heft 1-2, S. 110-112
ISSN: 2329-3225
Elections and Distributive Politics in Mubarak's Egypt. By Lisa Blaydes. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 288p. $81.45
In: Perspectives on politics, Band 9, Heft 4, S. 958-960
ISSN: 1541-0986
Peace Before Freedom: Diplomacy and Repression in Sadat's Egypt
In: Political science quarterly: a nonpartisan journal devoted to the study and analysis of government, politics and international affairs ; PSQ, Band 126, Heft 4, S. 641-668
ISSN: 1538-165X
The Transnational Challenge to Arab Freedom
In: Current history: a journal of contemporary world affairs, Band 110, Heft 739, S. 317-323
ISSN: 1944-785X
The White House has not repealed the doctrines that in the Middle East prioritize the stability of allied autocracies over democratization.
Executive elections in the Arab World: when and how do they matter?
In: Comparative political studies: CPS, Band 44, Heft 7, S. 807-828
ISSN: 0010-4140
World Affairs Online
The transnational challenge to Arab freedom
In: Current history: a journal of contemporary world affairs, Band 110, Heft 739, S. 317-323
ISSN: 0011-3530
World Affairs Online