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Making EU climate governance fit for net zero: an analysis of the current landscape of relevant EU climate policy processes and recommendations for alignment with the climate neutrality objective
In: Scientific opinion paper February 2022
The paper "Making EU Governance Fit for Net Zero" analyses the current landscape of climate policy governance against eight core parameters at EU level and for Member States, and identifies a number of remaining weaknesses. Improvements should address several key processes, such as updating of the NECPs in 2023-2024 and of national LTSs and the new progress and consistency assessments under the EU Climate Law. The paper identifies a number of specific actions in 2022 and 2023 to enhance these processes: Targeted revisions of the Governance Regulation,e., to improve standards for NECPs and LTSs and improve the overall alignment towards the climate neutrality goal (e.g., via the ESR); A transparent process to develop progress monitoring based on net zero indicators to inform several processes (NECPs, LTSs, progress checks); An update to the EU LTS to inform overall policy and the 2040 target and to as a coordinating hub for sectoral strategies; A dialogue with Member States about where coordinated EU policy is needed most – and support to their efforts to improve governance (incl. greater emphasis on national LTSs).
Risikokommunikation und -wahrnehmung im Kontext globaler Klimaänderungen
In: UBA-FB 2398
In: Umweltforschungsplan des Bundesministeriums für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit
Systematic analysis of the Rayleigh–Wood anomalies and the symmetry relations of 2D‐periodic nanostructures by imaging spectroscopic ellipsometry
In: Applied research, Band 2, Heft 6
ISSN: 2702-4288
AbstractPeriodic arrays of metallic nanostructures were fabricated by electron beam lithography and studied by means of spectroscopic imaging ellipsometry in the near infrared to ultraviolet spectral ranges. The sample consists of gold nanodisc and nanorod gratings on a silicon substrate. Spectroscopic imaging ellipsometry, allowing for the simultaneous observation of all gratings with microscopic resolution, was used to systematically analyze the varying grating and nanostructure parameters. The ellipsometric spectra obtained for a full in‐plane sample rotation proved to be a highly sensitive measure of the gratings' Rayleigh–Wood anomalies. Their dependence on the sample azimuth was in excellent agreement with the Rayleigh lines calculated from the grating parameters and could be tracked for both the ambient‐to‐grating and the grating–substrate interfaces. Contrary to other studies on similarly sized nanoparticle arrays, we found no indication of localized plasmon resonance in the visible range of the spectrum, but only a weak NIR response truncated by the Rayleigh lines. Finally, the symmetry of the structures was investigated by imaging Mueller‐matrix measurements.
Support to the development of ambitious climate change scenarios in Europe: final report
In: Climate change 2021, 73
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
A long-term vision for climate protection is essential for triggering the actions and policies needed to bring about economy-wide decarbonisation. The scientific basis for long-term climate planning comes in the form of so-called climate protection scenarios. These studies model emission pathways and potential mitigation options with a time horizon of mid-century and, like national strategies, differ substantially country to country in their scope, content and ambition, i.e., the magnitude of foreseen emission reductions. This document summarises the findings of a assessment of European climate protection scenarios initiated by the German Environment Agency (UBA) project: "Supporting the development of ambitious climate change scenarios in Europe." The principle finding from a descriptive evaluation and exemplary comparative analysis is that scenario development varies substantially by EU Member State - with countries emphasising different mitigation options and pathways based on inter alia national context. Considering the importance of long-term scenario development in the strategy development process, a process for alignment and a more unified basis for scenario development in Europe could improve modelling and thus long-term climate planning overall - and facilitate also effective regional and EU level approaches as complement to national strategies.
Criteria for the evaluation of climate protection scenarios: substudy report
In: Climate change 2021, 57
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Climate protection scenarios are a key part of long-term climate policy planning, which has been given a further boost by the Paris Agreement. The modelling performed in such scenarios informs the development of 2050 national climate strategies—which themselves serve as roadmaps for the decarbonisation of the economy. By early 2020, all EU Member States were called to deliver some form of a national climate strategy for 2050, but these will likely vary substantially in ambition, scope and content, in large part also due to the different content inputs provided by respective national policy scenarios and emission pathways modelling. This document outlines a catalogue of criteria for the comparative and normative evaluation of longterm climate protection scenarios, both in Europe and internationally.
Implications of Paris Agreement on the national emissions reduction efforts: final report
In: Climate change 2021, 15
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
The adoption of the Paris Agreement with the long-term temperature limit has important repercussions for the distribution of effort between its signatories. The application of the equity and least-cost approaches to the distribution effort leadsto different outcomes. The disparity of the results from the equity and cost-effectiveness approaches can be closed by granting support to those countries for which least cost approach indicates much deeper emissions reduction than equity approaches. Since the transformation away from fossil fuels towards renewables can contribute to meeting a number of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the specific socio-economicand politicalcircumstances need to be taken into consideration when distributing emissions reduction effortand supporting. Contrary to the socio-economic framework which with few exception changes only slowly, the political environmental within which climate mitigation is taking place may change rapidly. These changes –positive and negative –have a spillover effect on other countries. This effect takes place even if the external impacts of a policy are not the explicit objective of certain policies (or lack thereof). But it can be considerably strengthened if domestic climate mitigation effort is accompanied with active leadership and support of transfer agents. The spillover effect creates an opportunity for the EU to influence emissions reductions well above those targeted by its own measures. Thus,it is essential for the EU to further specify its emissions reduction goal for 2050, adopt an ambitious emissions reduction goal for 2030, and create a robust policy framework to reach these goals.
Advancing multilateral cooperation on climate action: ideas for new initiatives across four policy areas and how to use existing international venues as stepping stones : final report
In: Climate change 2021, 70
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Multilateral cooperation initiatives (or "climate clubs") can generate some of the additional action that is needed to achieve the goals agreed in the Paris Agreement. An analysis of the state of collaboration in the four policy areas energy transition, synthetic fuels, food systems and forest protection identified several possible additional themes and formats for additional initiatives. A number of these are highlighted as particularly promising following specific analyses of opportunities provided in the context of the UNFCCC, the G7 and G20 and through the pro-climate action agenda of the Biden Administration in the US. Expert consultations have further highlighted the need for a focus on access to sustainable finance as a key horizontal topic for targeted multilateral collaboration and also pointed to the strategic consideration of a sequential use of political fora to promote new initiatives. The analysis reveals diversity in the landscape of international cooperation across these policy areas. They differ in several ways: the extent to which countries are already cooperating, the scope of multilateral initiatives and what instruments are available to them vary. Those factors depend on the development of the policy area itself, but also on (perceived and real) political support for action. Thus, advancing multilateral cooperation on climate change in specific policy fields requires smartly addressing multiple channels and processes for which this report presents potential starting points.
Background paper: Key mitigation options to close the global 2030 ambition and action gap: interim report
In: Climate change 2020, 27
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
Achieving the Paris Agreement Long-term temperature goal (PA LTTG) requires closing the 2030 ambition and action gap between emissions levels consistent with the Paris Agreement and emissions levels projected with current targets and policies. G20 countries have a crucial role to play in realising increased climate policy ambition, given their economic power and prosperity, as well as their influence on investments, technology deployment and financial flows. This briefing paper provides an overview of mitigation options that have been analysed in recent literature and that can contribute to closing the emissions gap in 2030. This provides the basis to identify key policy areas and promising options for intergovernmental cooperation between the G20 nations, as well as possibly other relevant actors.
Analysen zum direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Risiko europäischer Industrieunternehmen: Abschlussbericht
In: Climate change 2020, 32
In: Ressortforschungsplan des Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit
Die Ergebnisse des Projekts "Zuteilung für Industrieanlagen im EU-ETS nach 2020 - Analyse und Weiterentwicklung der direkten und indirekten Carbon-Leakage-Regelung" sind in diesem Gesamtbericht zusammengeführt. Ziel des Projekts war die methodisch und empirisch fundierte, zeitnahe und politikrelevante wissenschaftliche Analyse verschiedener Aspekten des Themas Carbon Leakage bei der anstehenden Weiterentwicklung des EU-Emissionshandels für die Zeit nach 2020, und insbesondere der Ausgestaltung der Carbon-Leakage-Regelungen für die vierte Handelsperiode (2020 – 2030) und darüber hinaus. Die Arbeiten wurden vom Ecologic Institut und dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW) Mannheim durchgeführt. Im ersten der insgesamt drei Arbeitspakete wurde der Begriff "Carbon Leakage" genauer geklärt. Insbesondere wurden die wesentlichen Einflussfaktoren bestimmt, die einen Einfluss auf das Carbon Leakage-Risiko haben. Innerhalb des zweiten Arbeitspakets wurde eine vergleichende Analyse der klimapolitischen Ambitionsniveaus der EU und ihrer größten industriellen Handelspartner-Länder erstellt. Sie liefert ein möglichst aktuelles und möglichst umfassendes Bild des klimabezogenen regulatorischen Rahmens für energieintensive Industrien in den wichtigsten Handelspartnerländern der EU. Im dritten Arbeitspaket wurden die indirekten CO2-Kosten von Industrieunternehmen näher betrachtet. Unter indirekten CO2-Kosten werden die zusätzlichen Kosten im Rahmen des EU ETS verstanden, die durch eine Überwälzung der in der Stromerzeugung anfallenden CO2-Kosten auf den Strompreis entstehen.
The European Commission's 2050 Vision "A clean planet for all" – implications for sector strategies and climate governance: final report
In: Climate change 2022, 17
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection
In November 2018, the European Commission published its Strategic Long-Term Vision entitled "A Clean Planet for all" calling for the target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This proposal was subsequently agreed upon by EU heads of state and government, it features centrally in the European Green Deal and has now been made a legally binding objective in the EU Climate Law. The Strategic Long-Term Vision was supported by a detailed In-depth Analysis. The central objective of the work presented in this report was to assess the European Commission's Strategic Long-Term Vision and supplementary materials and reflect on them in light of state-of-the-art sector analyses. The report is a summary of a series of publications. These publications provide insights on the In-depth Analysis along with an assessment of the role of the Strategic Vision and how it can be turned into an effective long-term strategy for the EU. In addition, sector analyses for the transport sector, the industry sector and the buildings sector provide insights on the action needed to reach long-term decarbonisation in those sectors. An assessment of the inception impact assessment to the Effort Sharing Regulation shed light on different options for a meaningful combination of CO2 pricing (emissions trading) and regulation under the Effort Sharing Regulation. Lastly, a stocktake on the overall landscape of EU climate governance as of autumn of 2021 identified remaining weaknesses and recommends ways to strengthen the existing processes to ensure that they can get the EU on a path towards climate neutrality. A central recommendation is the call for an update to the EU long-term strategy as a central hub to provide oversight and guidance for sectoral and horizontal strategies as well as the next policy package (beyond 2030) that is due in 2024.
Assessment of the in-depth analysis accompanying the strategic long-term vision "A clean planet for all" of the European Commission: full report
In: Climate change 2019, 35
In: Ressortforschungsplan of the Federal Ministry for the Enviroment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety
In 2018, the European Commission presented its long-term Strategic Vision "A clean planet for all", which calls for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of the European Union by 2050. The Strategic Vision is accompanied by the In-depth Analysis containing a detailed impact assessment based on a scenario analysis. This paper presents the findings of an assessment of the In-depth Analysis, in particular its suitability as the analytical input for the Strategic Vision. In summary, the In-depth Analysis covers the key aspects for building an adequate long-term climate strategy and is thus a strong foundation for the Strategic Vision, in spite of certain limitations. The presented pathways to net-zero emissions cover all the relevant sectors and GHGs and are in accordance with other studies. However, they are not fully assessable, because important input and output data are not provided for all scenarios. Moreover, it is unclear why none of the scenarios maximises the use of renewable energies. The variety of models used provides evidence for the economic feasibility of such a transition. In this regard, the restricted set of scenarios used for the macro-economic assessment is a shortcoming. In the scenarios with net-zero GHG emissions in 2050, all sectors have to pursue very ambitious emission reductions early on. Nonetheless, some remaining GHG emissions have to be compensated by a combination of natural and artificial carbon sinks. Detailed considerations of the economic and social implications of the mitigation scenarios show moderate impacts on GDP and labor in comparison to other societal drivers, but also indicate the need for a strong shift from consumption to investment in mitigation technologies and infrastructure. International cooperation is seen as essential to foster the transformation to net-zero GHG emissions.