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As barragens brasileiras na Amazônia têm grandes impactos sociais e ambientais, que são sistematicamente subestimados nos Estudos de Impacto Ambiental (EIA) no processo de licenciamento. A equipe técnica no IBAMA, responsável pelo licenciamento, tem sido ignorado para aprovar uma série de barragens, apesar dos altos impactos, da falta de consulta aos povos indígenas e dos EIA inadequados. Há projetos de lei e propostas de emendas constitucionais que ameaçam a desconfirurar ou até eliminar o sistema de licenciamento como um todo. O uso de "suspensões de segurança" neutraliza, em grande parte, o sistema judicial em seus esforços para fazer cumprir a lei que exige a consulta aos povos indígenas ou para obrigar o cumprimento das exigências do licenciamento ambiental. A gravidade deste quadro é evidente, mas entendê-lo é o primeiro passo para que sejam mudados os sistemas de tomada de decisão e de licenciamento que levam aos impactos ilustrados pela história recente na Amazônia. O Brasil dispõe de amplas opções energéticas com menos impactos socioambientais do que as barragens que recebem prioridade hoje.

Las represas amazónicas de Brasil tienen importantes impactos sociales y ambientales que sistemáticamente se subestiman en los estudios de impacto ambiental (EIA) presentados para la concesión de licencias. Los impactos incluyen el desplazamiento de la población, la pérdida de pesquerías, la metilación del mercurio y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Se ha ignorado al personal técnico del Instituto Brasileño de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales Renovables (IBAMA), responsable de la concesión de licencias, para aprobar una serie de presas a pesar de los grandes impactos, la falta de consulta con los pueblos indígenas y las EIA inadecuadas. Hay proyectos de ley y enmiendas constitucionales que amenazan con destruir o abolir por completo el sistema de licencias. El uso de "suspensiones de seguridad" ha neutralizado en gran medida al sistema judicial en sus esfuerzos por hacer cumplir las reglamentaciones que requieren consultar a los pueblos indígenas u obligan al cumplimiento de los requisitos de licencia ambiental. La gravedad de la situación es evidente, entenderlo es el primer paso para cambiar los sistemas de toma de decisión y de concesión de licencias que conducen a los impactos ilustrados por la historia reciente en la Amazonia. Brasil tiene amplias opciones energéticas con menos impacto socio-ambiental que las represas que hoy reciben prioridad. ; As barragens brasileiras na Amazônia têm grandes impactos sociais e ambientais, que são sistematicamente subestimados nos Estudos de Impacto Ambiental (EIAs) no processo de licenciamento. Impactos incluem deslocamento de população, perda de pesca, metilização de mercúrio e emissão de gases de efeito estufa. A equipe técnica no Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis (IBAMA), responsável pelo licenciamento, tem sido ignorado para aprovar uma série de barragens, apesar dos altos impactos, da falta de consulta aos povos indígenas e dos EIAs inadequados. Há projetos de lei e propostas de emendas constitucionais que ameaçam a desconfigurar ou até eliminar o sistema de licenciamento como um todo. O uso de "suspensões de segurança" neutraliza, em grande parte, o sistema judicial em seus esforços para fazer cumprir a lei que exige a consulta aos povos indígenas ou para obrigar o cumprimento das exigências do licenciamento ambiental. A gravidade deste quadro é evidente, mas entendê-lo é o primeiro passo para que sejam mudados os sistemas de tomada de decisão e de licenciamento que levam aos impactos ilustrados pela história recente na Amazônia. O Brasil dispõe de amplas opções energéticas com menos impactos socioambientais do que as barragens que recebem prioridade hoje. ; Brazil's Amazon dams have major social and environmental impacts, which are systematically underestimated in the environmental impact studies (EIAs) submitted for licensing. Impacts include population displacement, loss of fisheries, mercury methylation and greenhouse-gas emissions. The technical staff of the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) responsible for licensing has been overridden to approve a series of dams despite high impacts, no consultation with indigenous peoples and inadequate EIAs. Pending legislation and constitutional amendments threaten either gutting or abolishing outright the entire licensing system. The use of "security suspensions" has largely neutralized the judicial system in its efforts to enforce regulations requiring consulting indigenous peoples or for fulfilling environmental licensing requirements. The seriousness of this picture is evident, but understanding it is the first step in changing the decision-making and licensing systems that lead to the impacts illustrated by recent history in the Amazon. Brazil has ample energy options with less socio-environmental impacts than the dams that receive priority today.

Las represas amazónicas de Brasil tienen importantes impactos sociales y ambientales que sistemáticamente se subestiman en los estudios de impacto ambiental (EIA) presentados para la concesión de licencias. Los impactos incluyen el desplazamiento de la población, la pérdida de pesquerías, la metilación del mercurio y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Se ha ignorado al personal técnico del Instituto Brasileño de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales Renovables (IBAMA), responsable de la concesión de licencias, para aprobar una serie de presas a pesar de los grandes impactos, la falta de consulta con los pueblos indígenas y las EIA inadecuadas. Hay proyectos de ley y enmiendas constitucionales que amenazan con destruir o abolir por completo el sistema de licencias. El uso de "suspensiones de seguridad" ha neutralizado en gran medida al sistema judicial en sus esfuerzos por hacer cumplir las reglamentaciones que requieren consultar a los pueblos indígenas u obligan al cumplimiento de los requisitos de licencia ambiental. La gravedad de la situación es evidente, entenderlo es el primer paso para cambiar los sistemas de toma de decisión y de concesión de licencias que conducen a los impactos ilustrados por la historia reciente en la Amazonia. Brasil tiene amplias opciones energéticas con menos impacto socio-ambiental que las represas que hoy reciben prioridad. ; As barragens brasileiras na Amazônia têm grandes impactos sociais e ambientais, que são sistematicamente subestimados nos Estudos de Impacto Ambiental (EIAs) no processo de licenciamento. Impactos incluem deslocamento de população, perda de pesca, metilização de mercúrio e emissão de gases de efeito estufa. A equipe técnica no Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis (IBAMA), responsável pelo licenciamento, tem sido ignorado para aprovar uma série de barragens, apesar dos altos impactos, da falta de consulta aos povos indígenas e dos EIAs inadequados. Há projetos de lei e propostas de emendas constitucionais que ameaçam a desconfigurar ou até eliminar o sistema de licenciamento como um todo. O uso de "suspensões de segurança" neutraliza, em grande parte, o sistema judicial em seus esforços para fazer cumprir a lei que exige a consulta aos povos indígenas ou para obrigar o cumprimento das exigências do licenciamento ambiental. A gravidade deste quadro é evidente, mas entendê-lo é o primeiro passo para que sejam mudados os sistemas de tomada de decisão e de licenciamento que levam aos impactos ilustrados pela história recente na Amazônia. O Brasil dispõe de amplas opções energéticas com menos impactos socioambientais do que as barragens que recebem prioridade hoje. ; Brazil's Amazon dams have major social and environmental impacts, which are systematically underestimated in the environmental impact studies (EIAs) submitted for licensing. Impacts include population displacement, loss of fisheries, mercury methylation and greenhouse-gas emissions. The technical staff of the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) responsible for licensing has been overridden to approve a series of dams despite high impacts, no consultation with indigenous peoples and inadequate EIAs. Pending legislation and constitutional amendments threaten either gutting or abolishing outright the entire licensing system. The use of "security suspensions" has largely neutralized the judicial system in its efforts to enforce regulations requiring consulting indigenous peoples or for fulfilling environmental licensing requirements. The seriousness of this picture is evident, but understanding it is the first step in changing the decision-making and licensing systems that lead to the impacts illustrated by recent history in the Amazon. Brazil has ample energy options with less socio-environmental impacts than the dams that receive priority today.

The struggle to stop Brazil's Belo Monte Dam, whose reservoir was filled in December 2015, has lessons for other resource struggles in Amazonia and beyond. Among the impediments that failed to halt the dam were the resistance efforts of both indigenous and non-indigenous victims of the dam's impacts, as well as the nongovernmental organizations and other actors supporting their cause. The pro-dam side had massive political and financial support from the top levels of the Brazilian government, including vigorous involvement of the country's president. At the same time, achievements of the anti-dam side, particularly the local grassroots organizations, have provided inspiration for resource struggles elsewhere (although the victories of the resistance are significantly less definitive than was thought by many at the time).

The reservoir of Brazil's Belo Monte Dam was filled in December 2015. The dam's planning, licensing and construction had rolled inexorably forward despite opposition from local victims of this development and from a wide array of other actors. Logical, legal and ethical arguments had less effect than the political and business forces prioritizing the dam. Part of the environmental destruction and human-rights violation at Belo Monte was apparently financed by taxpayers in North America and Europe with funds passed through Brazil's National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) from development policy loans (DPLs) to Brazil by the World Bank. This opens the opportunity for World Bank reforms to eliminate loopholes allowing funding through financial intermediaries. The human and environmental cost of Belo Monte should also give pause to governments and financial institutions in promoting dams as their primary response to energy issues.

Tropical forest in Brazil, as in other countries, faces threats stemming from decision making that favors destructive development and gives only token consideration to lost environmental services and other impacts. History, particularly the most relevant period covering the recent years of rapid development in Amazonia, is a source of useful lessons for changing the decision-making process to favor outcomes that are less destructive and more sustainable. Development decisions set processes in motion with consequences extending far into the future, adding urgency to the task of assimilating these lessons. Decisions in the coming decade will determine the fate of Brazil's Amazon forest, as is also the case for other countries that could benefit from the lessons of recent history in Brazil.

Brazil plans to build 43 "large" dams (>30 MW) in the Tapajós Basin, ten of which are priorities for completion by 2022. Impacts include flooding indigenous lands and conservation units. The Tapajós River and two tributaries (the Juruena and Teles Pires Rivers) are also the focus of plans for waterways to transport soybeans from Mato Grosso to ports on the Amazon River. Dams would allow barges to pass rapids and waterfalls. The waterway plans require dams in a continuous chain, including the Chacorão Dam that would flood 18 700 ha of the Munduruku Indigenous Land. Protections in Brazil's constitution and legislation and in international conventions are easily neutralized through application of "security suspensions," as has already occurred during licensing of several dams currently under construction in the Tapajós Basin. Few are aware of "security suspensions," resulting in little impetus to change these laws.

Climate changes predicted for Brazilian Amazonia place much of the forest in danger of dieoff from the combined effect of drought and heat within the current century, and much sooner for some areas. Increases are expected in the frequency and magnitude of droughts from both the El Niño phenomenon and from the Atlantic dipole. These changes imply increased frequency of forest fires. Forest death from drought, fires or both would be followed by a transformation either to a savanna or to some type of low-biomass woody vegetation, in either case with greatly reduced biodiversity. This risk provides justification for Brazil to change its negotiating positions under the Climate Convention to accept a binding target now for national emissions and to support a low atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (400 ppmv or less) as the definition of "dangerous" interference with the climate system.

The context of Brazil's environmental policies has changed in multiple ways over the past two decades, some positive for the environment and others not. Positive changes include creation of a Ministry of the Environment and a system of environmental licensing, increased organization of civil society, creation of reserves and demarcation of indigenous areas, and the advent of international conventions on climate and biodiversity. However, development projects in Brazilian Amazonia have circumvented environmental restrictions in various ways, and past and present modifications to the system are weakening environmental protection. The current hostility of the political climate in Brazil in environmental matters makes efforts to strengthen environmental policies even more dependent on careful selection of strategies. Making the best of instability by being prepared for conservation opportunities is one method, as is the use of science and technology in relevant areas. Understanding the complex nature of Brazilian bureaucracy is essential in this process. The value of environmental services provided by maintaining Amazon forest could be a key element in determining the future of environmental policy and of the forest.