Für das Projekt "Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz V" (Politikszenarien V) wurden Szenarien für die Entwicklung der Treibhausgasemissionen in Deutschland für den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2030 erarbeitet. Im Rahmen der Szenarienanalysen erfolgt eine detaillierte Bewertung der jeweiligen klima- und energiepolitischen Maßnahmen hinsichtlich ihrer Effekte für die Entwicklung der deutschen Treibhausgasemissionen. Berücksichtigt werden dabei die Emissionen der vom Kyoto-Protokoll erfassten Treibhausgase Kohlendioxid (CO$_{2}$), Methan (CH4), Lachgas (N$_{2}$O), halogenierte Fluorkohlenwasserstoffe (HFKW), perfluorierte Kohlenwasserstoffe (FKW) und Schwefelhexafluorid (SF$_{6}$) für die Quellsektoren Energie, Industrieprozesse, Produktverwendung, Landwirtschaft und Abfallwirtschaft. Der Quellbereich Landnutzungsänderungen und Forstwirtschaft wurde in den Analysen nicht berücksichtigt [.]
In the "Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection VI" project the greenhouse gas emissions for Germany are assessed based on model analyses for detailed specific energy and climate policy instruments.In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) all measures which have been implemented by 8 July 2011 (and those which entered into force for the first time or were changed after 1.1.2005) are taken into consideration. Compared to the reference year of 1990, a 34 % reduction of the emissions of greenhouse gases falling under the Kyoto Protocol4 is achieved by 2020. By 2030 the emissions are reduced by 44 %. Over half f of the emission reductions originate from policies that target the energy conversion sectors, most notably from electricity production. In terms of the instrument-specific effects, the largest share of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions stems from instruments geared to saving electricity (e.g. the emission trading scheme (ETS))5, building rehabilitation programs, the promotion of renewable energies in electricity and heat production, (European) efficiency standards for passenger cars and the use of bio fuels. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases by 9 % by 2020 and by 19 % by 2030 compared to 20086. The contribution made by renewable energies to the primary energy supply approximately doubles by 2020; by 2030 the contribution increases by approx. a factor of 2.5. Overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases from approx. 9 % in 2008 to 19.5 % in 2020 and to more than 27 % in 2030. Alongside the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, substantial emission reductions in the Current Policy Scenario are achieved by measures and developments in industrial processes and waste management.In the Energy Transformation Scenario (ETS) additional measures which go beyond the ones described above are taken into account. These additional measures bring about an emission reduction of approx. 42 % by 2020 and of more than 58 % by 2030 (compared to 1990). More than half of the ...
As a background study for the preparation of the German 2007 Projection Report and other projects of climate policy, scenarios are created in the "Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection IV" project with regard to the development of greenhouse gas emissions from German source sectors for the time period of 2000 to 2030. They are: $\bullet$ a $\textit{with measures scenario}$ (WMS), in which climate protection and energy policy measures adopted within the time period of 2000 to mid-2006 are taken into consideration and which is awarded a high level of prognostic relevance; $\bullet$ a $\textit{without measures scenario}$ (WOMS), in which a hypothetical development is described, had these measures not been adopted; $\bullet$ a $\textit{with additional measures scenario}$ (WAMS), in which the impact of further instruments - defined in coordination with the sponsoring agency - of climate protection and energy policy (or of relevant targets) are also taken into account in the scenario development. Within the scope of the scenario analyses, a detailed assessment is undertaken of the measures of climate protection and energy policy which have been adopted to date and which go beyond, in view of their impact on the development of German greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions of the greenhouses gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol – carbon dioxide (CO$_{2}$), methane (CH$_{4}$), nitrous oxide (N$_{2}$O), halogenated chlorofluorocarbons (HCFC), perfluorinated hydrocarbons (PFH) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF$_{6}$) – are considered for the following source sectors: energy, industrial processes, product use and waste management. Agriculture (in view of the CH$_{4}$ and N$_{2}$O emissions), land use change and forestry were not incorporated as source sectors in the analyses in accordance with the commission of the sponsoring agency. For the scenario development, an energy system model is deployed, with the help of which the results of detailed – and in part, model-based – sectoral analyses are consolidated to a consistent and ...
