Suchergebnisse

Since its early beginnings peace and conflict research has focused on causes of phenomena such as civil war, terrorism, and state failure. The author merges this approach with a peace causes perspective and asks why civil war happened in Peru (1980-1995) though not in Bolivia, which is striking given the structural similarities with Peru as well as a number of escalation episodes leading the country to the brink of civil war (2000-2008). He explores the political measures such as reforms and political dialogue, which prevented the country from rather hazardous consequences.

Since its early beginnings peace and conflict research has focused on causes of phenomena such as civil war, terrorism, and state failure. The author merges this approach with a peace causes perspective and asks why civil war happened in Peru (1980-1995) though not in Bolivia, which is striking given the structural similarities with Peru as well as a number of escalation episodes leading the country to the brink of civil war (2000-2008). He explores the political measures such as reforms and political dialogue, which prevented the country from rather hazardous consequences.

"Jenseits des Fokus der öffentlichen Debatte zur Rolle des Bundesnachrichtendienstes (BND) in der Spähaffäre um die National Security Agency (NSA) untersucht der Beitrag, inwiefern der BND in der Lage ist einen Beitrag zur Eskalation und/oder Deeskalation von Konflikten zu leisten. Vor dem Hintergrund eines erschwerten Datenzugangs werden mithilfe von Wikileaks und Sekundärliteratur die Aktivitäten des Auslandsnachrichtendienstes und deren Wirkung untersucht. Die von der Bundesregierung vorgegebenen Schwerpunkte auf Proliferation und internationalen Terrorismus bilden die empirische Kontrastfolie. Die Analyse zeichnet das ambivalente Bild eines Nachrichtendienstes, der 'Erfolge' vorweisen kann, erlaubt jedoch wenig Aussagen über Operationen, die im Verborgenen bleiben." (Autorenreferat)

The Arab Spring took policymakers and academics by surprise. The starting point, the scope, nor the impact had been seen coming. This was primarily because of academics' irrevocable belief in the stabilising power of authoritarian regimes. In light of this failing, the article will critically discuss the production of crisis knowledge on the basis of four major early warning tools. These are World Bank's greed/grievance model, the predictive model by the Political Instability Task Force, the risk and capacity approach applied by the Failed States Index, and the International Crisis Group. The article will add to the debate in two ways. First, the analysis will show that prevention research can be biased in ways that crucially influence policymakers' assessment of states at risk. Second, the article will argue in favour of a complementary perspective that includes the analysis of conflicts that do not erupt into large-scale violence against all odds (so-called 'negative cases').