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The North Korean nuclear missile crisis came in 2017 as a result of DPRK improving their missile capabilities. The crisis exacerbated the tension in the relationship between the US and North Korea. Both sides now openly declare that they are ready to use nuclear weapons. The purpose of this article is to conduct a comprehensive study of possible US strategies of tackling North Korean nuclear crisis and to identify the most probable option. The research is based primarily on statistical data as well as on the analysis of the official US political discourse. In the course of this study, we come to the conclusion that the likelihood of a military escalation of the crisis is extremely low. The strategy chosen by the US is that of economic and military pressure, and the US intends to coerce its counterpart to negotiations from a position of strength. Russia's involvement in the negotiation process is extremely unlikely. The US has chosen to act unilaterally.Key words: North Korea, USA, nuclear missile crisis, policy, Trump, Kim Jong-Un, international security. ; Северокорейский ракетно-ядерный кризис в 2017 г. стал результатом совершенствования КНДР своего потенциала в области ракетных технологий. Кризис обострил отношения между США и КНДР. Обе стороны конфликта открыто заявляют о готовности применения ядерного оружия. Цель данной статьи – провести комплексное исследование возможных стратегий США в отношении северокорейского ядерного кризиса и выявить наиболее вероятный сценарий действий администрации США, основываясь в первую очередь на статистических данных, а также на анализе официального американского политического дискурса. В ходе данного исследования мы приходим к выводу, что вероятность военной эскалации кризиса крайне низка. Стратегия, избранная США, – это преимущественно экономическое и военное давление, принуждение к переговорам. Вовлечение России в переговорный процесс крайне маловероятно. США выбрали стратегию односторонних действий.Ключевые слова: КНДР, ядерно-ракетный кризис, политика, Д. Трамп, Ким Чен Ын, международная безопасность.

The paper deals with the analysis of crisis overcoming in 2008 by Australia on the basis of statistical data. An econometric model is elaborated. The econometric model is based on Cobb-Douglas production function for the Australian economy for the period of 2006–2014. Calculations are performed at 2005 values. Gross domestic product (GDP) at constant prices is calculated using Australia yearly GDP deflator index for the period of 2005–2014. R2determination coefficient is high for the Cobb-Douglas model. The R2 value is close to 1 and α + β > 1 for the second model that considers oil barrel price, government expenditures and investments. Capital elasticity is negative, and gross regional product (GRP) elasticity is positive that means high dependency of GRP on labor costs than capital costs. The significance of all coefficients is above 0.96. Calculations demonstrate that timely anti-crisis measures of the Australian Government contributed to GDP growth and mitigated the effects of crisis.DOI 10.14258/izvasu(2016)1-24 ; Осуществлен анализ преодоления кризиса 2008 г. Австралией на основе статистических данных и построения эконометрической модели. Эконометрическая модель была построена посредством производственной функции Кобба-Дугласа для экономики Австралии за 2006–2014 гг. Вычисления произведены в ценах 2005 г. Валовый внутренний продукт (ВВП) в постоянных ценах вычислен с использованием погодового индекса-дефлятора ВВП Австралии за период 2005–2014 гг. Для модели Кобба-Дугласа коэффициент детерминации R2 высокий. Для второй модели с учетом цены за баррель нефти, государственных расходов и инвестиций коэффициент детерминации R2 близок к 1 и α + β > 1. Эластичность по капиталу отрицательна, а эластичность валового регионального продукта по труду положительна, что означает большую зависимость этого продукта от затрат труда, чем от затрат капитала. Значимость всех коэффициентов выше 0,96. Вычисления показывают, что своевременные антикризисные меры правительства Австралии способствовали росту ВВП и тем самым смягчили последствия кризиса.DOI 10.14258/izvasu(2016)1-24

The article considers the concept of anti-crisis business regulation and outlines its main goals and objectives both for preventing the crisis in the enterprise and for overcoming it. According to the methodology of the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 367 of June 25, 2003 "On Approval of the Rules for Conducting Financial Analysis by the Arbitrator," a diagnosis was made of the financial and economic state of the enterprise, which is one of the largest producers and distributors of household chemicals in Russia. Based on the analysis, recommendations were developed to strengthen the company's financial stability. ; В статье рассмотрено понятие антикризисного бизнес-регулирования и выделены его основные цели и задачи как для предотвращения кризиса на предприятии, так и для его преодоления. По методологии Постановления Правительства Российской Федерации от 25.06.2003 № 367 «Об утверждении правил проведения арбитражным управляющим финансового анализа» была проведена диагностика финансово-экономического состояния предприятия, являющегося одним из крупнейших производителей и дистрибьютеров бытовой химии в России. На основе проведенного анализа были разработаны рекомендации по укреплению финансовой устойчивости компании.

The following article considers the origins, external and internal factors of the modern crisis in Yemen. It is particularly noted that one of the reasons that Yemen has always been the arena for a clash of interests of the powers due to its strategic position on the sea route connecting Europe with the Indian ocean. It describes in detail how, along with the external threat, North and South Yemen in the second half of the XXth century was torn by internal contradictions. It is noted that after the integration of Yemen in 1990, opposition intensified its activities against the conditions of unification, which led to a new civil war. The article has a strong focus on the fact that in Yemen in the end of twentieth century political factor has been supplemented by religious factor, i.e., the confrontation escalated between the northerners Shia zaidis and the South Sunni. Attention is drawn to the fact that the spread of Wahhabism in Yemen as an ideological and political force, the creation of "al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula" has further aggravated the explosive situation in the country. The analysis of the process of transformation of the theological movement of the Houthis-zaidis into a military-political force, which managed in the Wake of the "Arab spring" and in Alliance with the supporters of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, not only to seize power in Sana'a in January 2015, but also to expand its position up to Aden. The particular emphasis has been placed on the fact that since March 2015 the conflict in Yemen has acquired an international character, when the Saudi coalition (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Qatar, Sudan and UAE, Egypt) sided with the President in the exile of Abd Rabbo Mansur Hadi and forced the Houthis to retreat from Aden and Bab El-Mandeb Strait by force of arms. It is noted what changes have occurred in the US policy towards the support of the Saudi coalition in recent years. The role of Iran in Yemen and the nature of its relations with the Houthis cause disputes between researchers. Based on the analysis of recent events, it is concluded that the military actions of the Saudi coalition can lead to the elimination of Yemen as a state. The ongoing armed conflict and the futility of attempts at a political solution make the possibility of a peaceful settlement in Yemen problematical.

Purpose: the main goal is to improve the methodology for assessing the effectiveness of state crisis business support based on the analysis of the experience of foreign countries.Methods: the information base of the study is data from the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD. The study was conducted on the basis of methods of logical and comparative analysis (induction, deduction, comparative studies) using statistical data processing tools. The theoretical basis of the research is the theory of bankruptcy of companies of the scientific school of the Financial University «Crisis Management».Results: the approaches to assessing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy based on the theory and practice of governments of developed countries have been studied, a methodology for analyzing the crisis component of such a policy has been developed, including the definition of efficiency criteria, and proposals for improving crisis policy in the context of the coronavirus pandemic have been formulated. The effectiveness of using the rehabilitation potential of bankruptcy procedures on the example of some countries to restore the economy in a crisis is proved.Conclusions and Relevance: the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic differs from all previous economic crises, including significant amounts of state support for business. At the same time there is no strict correlation between the volumes of such support and losses in the economy. Despite the projected rates of economic growth in the coming years, some crisis factors have been ignored by the states (the high level of debt burden, the existence of zombie companies). The imposed moratorium on bankruptcy has postponed the problem of accumulated debts, which will subsequently negatively affect the pace of economic growth in the world as a whole. Existing studies have not confirmed the effectiveness of this business support measure.Assessment of the effectiveness of state support for crisis business, along with macroeconomic effects, should include crisis, due to the rehabilitation potential of the institution of bankruptcy. Existing scientific studies do not analyze the contribution of the insolvency regime to economic growth. According to the results of the study, the inefficiency of state support for crisis business from the point of view of crisis management has been established. ; Цель: анализ зарубежного опыта государственной антикризисной поддержки бизнеса в условиях пандемии коронавируса на основе усовершенствованной методологии оценки эффективности такой поддержки.Метод или методология проведения работы. Исследование проведено на основе методов логического и сравнительного анализа (индукция, дедукция, компаративистика) с применением статистического инструментария обработки данных. Базис исследования – теория сохранения бизнеса компании от разрушения в рамках процедур банкротства научной школы Финуниверситета«Антикризисное управление» во взаимосвязи с теорией макроэкономики. Информационная база – данные МВФ, Всемирного банка, ОЭСР.Результаты работы. Исследованы подходы к оценке эффективности макроэкономической политики на основе теории и практики правительств развитых стран. Разработана методология анализа антикризисной составляющей такой политики, включая определение критериев эффективности. Сформулированы предложения по совершенствованию антикризисной политики в условиях пандемии коронавируса. Доказана эффективность применения реабилитационного потенциала процедур банкротства на примере некоторых стран для восстановления экономики в условиях кризиса. Полученные результаты исследования являются актуальными и для сегодняшнего кризиса в экономике, обусловленного геополитическими факторами.Выводы. Кризис, обусловленный пандемией коронавируса, отличается от всех предшествующих экономических кризисов в том числе существенными объемами государственной поддержки бизнеса. При этом отсутствует строгая корреляция между объемами такой поддержки и потерями в экономике. Несмотря на прогнозируемый экономический рост в ближайшие годы, некоторые кризисные факторы (высокий уровень долговой нагрузки, существование зомби-компаний) государствами проигнорированы. Введенный мораторий на банкротство отсрочил проблему накопленных долгов, что впоследствии негативно скажется на темпах экономического роста в мире. Существующие исследования не подтвердили эффективности данной меры поддержки бизнеса.Оценка эффективности государственной поддержки кризисного бизнеса наряду с макроэкономическими эффектами должна предусматривать антикризисные, обусловленные реабилитационным потенциалом института банкротства. Существующие научные исследования не анализируют вклада режима несостоятельности в экономический рост. По итогам исследования установлена неэффективность государственной поддержки кризисного бизнеса с точки зрения антикризисного управления.

Anti-crisis financial stabilization mechanisms are mainly based on the method of analyzing the financial condition of the organization, enabling it to assess the financial activities only in the dynamics of the past and what was then that led to the insolvent status and do not predict the financial status of the organization in the future. In modern conditions it is necessary to form a model of financial analysis aimed at the development of a dynamic analysis of the financial condition of the organization's past, present and future.In this paper we consider a model of analysis of financial development organization aimed at adequate prediction of the state, taking into account the possibilities and limitations of the legislation on insolvency (bankruptcy), including a system of indicators to provide the financial condition of the debtor in the post-crisis development. ; Антикризисные механизмы финансовой стабилизации в основном основаны на методике анализа финансового состояния организации, позволяющей оценивать ее финансовую деятельность только в динамике прошлых лет и тогдашней деятельности, которая привела к неплатежеспособному состоянию, и не прогнозируют финансовое состояние организации в будущем. В современных условиях необходимо формирование модели анализа финансового развития, направленной на динамический анализ финансового состояния организации в прошлом, настоящем и будущем.В работе рассмотрена модель анализа финансового развития организации, направленная на адекватное прогнозирование ее состояния с учетом возможностей и ограничений законодательства о несостоятельности (банкротстве), включающая систему показателей, позволяющих представить финансовое состояние должника в посткризисном развитии.

Anti-crisis financial stabilization mechanisms are mainly based on the method of analyzing the financial condition of the organization, enabling it to assess the financial activities only in the dynamics of the past and what was then that led to the insolvent status and do not predict the financial status of the organization in the future. In modern conditions it is necessary to form a model of financial analysis aimed at the development of a dynamic analysis of the financial condition of the organization's past, present and future.In this paper we consider a model of analysis of financial development organization aimed at adequate prediction of the state, taking into account the possibilities and limitations of the legislation on insolvency (bankruptcy), including a system of indicators to provide the financial condition of the debtor in the post-crisis development. ; Антикризисные механизмы финансовой стабилизации в основном основаны на методике анализа финансового состояния организации, позволяющей оценивать ее финансовую деятельность только в динамике прошлых лет и тогдашней деятельности, которая привела к неплатежеспособному состоянию, и не прогнозируют финансовое состояние организации в будущем. В современных условиях необходимо формирование модели анализа финансового развития, направленной на динамический анализ финансового состояния организации в прошлом, настоящем и будущем.В работе рассмотрена модель анализа финансового развития организации, направленная на адекватное прогнозирование ее состояния с учетом возможностей и ограничений законодательства о несостоятельности (банкротстве), включающая систему показателей, позволяющих представить финансовое состояние должника в посткризисном развитии.

On the basis of statistics of anomalous socio-natural, political and economic phenomena collected from various sources, all crisis events are considered as a manifestation of a certain cyclicality, largely due to periodic processes of solar activity. In this article, the authors not only analyze the rhythm of these events in the past, but also using a specially developed neural model predict their cyclical manifestation for the coming period - until 2030 - 2050.

At the beginning of the 20th century the Mordovian villages in the Fedorovsky district of the Bashkortostan Republic were characterized by the maximum growth rates and population density among settlements with another ethnic structure of the population. During the 20th century, the average population of Mordovian villages in the district decreased by 79%, and many of the settlements disappeared. High rates of depopulation of Mordovian villages within zone with favorable agro-climatic conditions have no analogues among villages with another ethnic structure of the population. The article provides a geographical analysis of a rapid growth of the Mordvins ethnic area in the 18-19th centuries and its reduction in the 20th century. Specific features of the development of Mordovian villages influenced by natural conditions (attraction to water sources and forest areas), the "periphery of settlement", the peculiarities of the economic structure (gardening) and dominant psychological universals (closeness, individualism, etc.) are discussed. The evolution of factors driving the transformation of Mordovian villages at different stages of its development is described. The main factors of the "Mordovian village crisis" in the 20th-21st centuries - migration, institutional, economic and ethno-cultural, are identified. To demonstrate the scope of settlement transformation, a modern schematic map of the Alyoshkino (typical Mordovian) village has been compiled showing inhabited and inoccupied homesteads, abandoned and developed territories. Based on the results of in-depth interviews and characteristics of the population, the main groups of residents of the modern Mordovian village are identified: "old people", "young families", "new kulaks (farmers)" and "urban cottagers".

The article examines postmodern as the crisis in the being of human and society in terms of the unity of theory and practice. There is compares postmodern society with the communist and information. There is analysis some variants of development, especially European society in terms of a new source of passionate impulse: new ethno genesis in connection with the increase in the number of migrants, passionate impetus from the US, China, Russia, emergence of a new syncretic religion. The conclusion is that the difference between the post-modern and the freedom not to have an ontological character are only apparent. Postmodern tolerance is a consequence of the absence of ontological foundation of postmodern existence.

Purpose. The article deals with analyzing the linguistic ways of the implementation of argumentative strategies in the British crisis discourse used by the British politician T. May.Methodology. The linguistic, descriptive methods and the method of logic and semantic analysis are used as basic methods of the survey.Results. The crisis discourse is marked by the use of certain strategies, language tools and techniques that have a stronger impact on the audience in a crisis situation than in a more peaceful period. The speech of the British politician T. May includes all the main strategies of crisis discourse: the strategy of legitimization, interpretation, orientation, motivation, demonstration of control, integration and agonality.Practical implications. Research results can be applied in political linguistics, cultural science and rhetoric. ; Цель. Авторы ставят целью выделить и проанализировать свойственные британскому политическому лидеру Терезе Мэй лексические средства реализации аргументативных стратегий кризисного дискурса.Метод и методология исследования. Основными методами исследования данной работы являются лингвистический, описательный и логико-семантический анализ.Результаты. Кризисный дискурс отмечен употреблением определенных стратегий, языковых средств и приемов, оказывающих более сильное воздействие на аудиторию в условиях кризисной ситуации, чем в более благополучный период. В речи британского политика Т. Мэй присутствуют все главные стратегии кризисного дискурса: стратегия легитимизации, интерпретации, ориентации, мотивации, демонстрации контроля, интеграции и агональности.Область применения результатов. Результаты исследования могут быть применены в области политической лингвистики, культурологи и риторики.

The present article is concerned with the nexus of masculinities and environment. The authors present their critical analyses of two configurations of masculinities the authors refer to as 'industrial/breadwinner' and 'ecomodern' masculinities that dominate politics worldwide. The authors stated their opinion on the fact that the first two configurations of masculinities are acutely but distinctly in conflict with the wellbeing of the planet. The paper presents an empirical and theoretical analysis of 'ecological masculinities', which considers the insights and limitations of masculinities studies, deep ecology, ecological feminism and feminist care theory. In this article, the authors focus their attention on the necessity of ecologisation of masculinities as well as on the need for men and masculinities to 'ecologise' relationally and create more caring encounters with self and others. In support of the need in a transition from hegemonisation to ecologisation, necessary configurations beyond the constraints of industrial/breadwinner and ecomodern masculinities are presented. The authors also argue that the potential to expose and resolve the anthropocentric discord between Earth, others and human beings is possible within the very constructs of manhood. The notion of ecological masculinities suggested in the article is a constructive response to the roles of men and masculine identities in the Anthropocene. The exit politics central to the notion of ecological masculinities represent a theoretical framework and plurality of practices reflective of a masculine ecologisation process. The authors encourage scholarly masculinities inquiries and practices towards broader, deeper and wider care for the 'glocal' (global and local) commons.

Introduction. The article is devoted to the origins, grounds and possible consequences of the political crisis in modern Italy. The paper shows that the Italian crisis has acquired a scale that challenges the interests of political establishment of the country and the very principles of the EU existence.

Methods and materials. The authors seek a combination of General theoretical and special methods, focusing on the historical, socio-cultural and political analysis. They are based on the analysis of periodicals, as well as using articles and materials of researchers on the problems of political development in Italy.

Analysis. The source of the crisis is the protest of citizens against the state authority and strategies of the political class of Italy, which is accompanied by the requirement of institutional reforms and socio-economic policy for benefit of the majority, in order to establish new political rules and form a truly legitimate political mechanism. These demands came from various social groups and led to a number of political and legal transformations, culminating in the "populist government", which came to power as a result of the parliamentary elections of 2018. The "Populist government" intended to revise many previous approaches in domestic and foreign policy. It is the Alliance of the right-wing and left-wing populists that was entrusted by Italian society with necessary reforms.

Results. According to the authors, it is political populism as a possible platform for social and political transformations, along with a number of possible risks, that contains a positive potential associated with the possibility of overcoming ideological divisions, corporate selfishness of Italian politicians and parties, as well as alienation in the relations of the power and society. This approach to resolving issues by the "populist government" will contribute to the gradual resolution of the problems that have caused the long-term political crisis in Italy.

A distinguishing feature of town-forming organization is a high socio-economic importance, and therefore very large number of persons, including the government, is interested in its functioning. The economic problems of financial recovery and enterprise restructuring can only be solved at the state level. However, the blind "infusion" of money to any town-forming organizations in a state of crisis is not a solution. The purpose of this work is to considerate the cases of state intervention during the anti-crisis restructuring of town-forming organization and assessment the suitability of such involvement. ; Отличительным свойством градообразующей организации является высокая социально-экономическая значимость, в связи с чем в ее функционировании заинтересовано очень большое количество лиц, в том числе государство. Экономические задачи финансового оздоровления и реструктуризации градообразующих предприятий могут быть решены лишь на государственном уровне. Однако слепое «вливание» средств в любую градообразующую организацию, находящуюся в кризисном состоянии, не является решением проблемы. Цель данной статьи – рассмотреть случаи необходимости государственного вмешательства в процесс антикризисной реструктуризации градообразующих организаций и оценить приемлемую степень такого вмешательства.

A distinguishing feature of town-forming organization is a high socio-economic importance, and therefore very large number of persons, including the government, is interested in its functioning. The economic problems of financial recovery and enterprise restructuring can only be solved at the state level. However, the blind "infusion" of money to any town-forming organizations in a state of crisis is not a solution. The purpose of this work is to considerate the cases of state intervention during the anti-crisis restructuring of town-forming organization and assessment the suitability of such involvement. ; Отличительным свойством градообразующей организации является высокая социально-экономическая значимость, в связи с чем в ее функционировании заинтересовано очень большое количество лиц, в том числе государство. Экономические задачи финансового оздоровления и реструктуризации градообразующих предприятий могут быть решены лишь на государственном уровне. Однако слепое «вливание» средств в любую градообразующую организацию, находящуюся в кризисном состоянии, не является решением проблемы. Цель данной статьи – рассмотреть случаи необходимости государственного вмешательства в процесс антикризисной реструктуризации градообразующих организаций и оценить приемлемую степень такого вмешательства.