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If there is a "Chekhov's gun" in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, it consists of circa $300 billion worth of central bank assets sitting in the coffers of the U.S. and (more so) its close allies. Frozen at the outset of Moscow's invasion, the money represents both the object of the strongest sanctions taken so far against a state outside of a UN-authorized regime, and, at the same time, the possible target for even more dramatic further escalatory measures.The question at the moment is whether G7 states will make the crucial transition from "freezing" to "seizing" – i.e., liquidate the funds and then reallocate them to assist Ukraine. The issue has gathered urgency amidst flagging support in the U.S. and in Europe for continuing to expend funds on shoring up Ukraine's struggling defenses.At home in the U.S., the bipartisan REPO Act endorsed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee would empower the President to "confiscate ... Russian sovereign assets'' and to then deposit them into a "Ukraine Support Fund" that would aid in reconstruction, recovery, and the "welfare of the Ukrainian people." Those goals, if vague, are hardly objectionable. But using seized sovereign assets to promote them is, as a matter of law, untested and problematic. As a matter of economic statecraft, meanwhile, it is still more inadvisable, for several reasons. These include the significant risk of alienating allies, further discrediting U.S. "dollar power", boosting China's prestige and its own "yuanization" aims, and endangering U.S. assets abroad.Piercing the Veil of SovereigntyThe legal objections are quite simple to summarize. The norm of sovereign immunity is one of the most well-established customs in international law. In the eyes of many experts, it is precisely the firmness of this bedrock principle that has allowed exceptions, such as litigation for commercial disputes involving states, to become reliable.The rule is reflected in the law of countries around the world, including in the U.S.'s own Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. China, notably, has only as of this year finally implemented legislation for immunity that clearly separates commerce from matters of state, putting foreign businesses and investors on equal footing as litigants — which should be seen as a victory for U.S. interests in its market.Despite immunity's inarguable applicability to central banks, advocates of asset seizure have pointed to the custom of "countermeasures'' to justify their project. These are illegal acts taken by states injured by a previous wrong of another state, and intended only to induce the latter to cease its misbehavior. Usually, only a directly injured party (here, Ukraine) can take such actions, but emerging arguments for "collective countermeasures"would extend the field of retaliators for some core wrongs to include any state in the global community.Experts critical of asset seizure have pointed out, however, that doctrinal support is lacking. As Vanderbilt Law School's Ingrid (Wuerth) Brunk rightly summarizes: "There is little or no state practice on countermeasures for reparations ... There is little practice of third-party countermeasures, little or no practice of countermeasures used to deny immunity, and no practice that provides clear support for denying central bank immunity as a countermeasure."Meanwhile, given that most of the funds currently lie in special accounts at the financial services company Euroclear, any repercussions would also be primarily borne not by Washington, but rather by its European allies. That fact has prompted considerable opposition to the initiative among European policymakers, despite their willingness to join earlier rounds of sanctions. After all, Europe's leaders are, in effect, being deputized to carry out a policy of financial warfare whose costs they will have to bear right along with that policy's targets.First of all, the precedent of a geopolitically-motivated confiscation could threaten the euro's hard-won status as the world's second reserve currency. The euro's attractiveness has been based on numerous ingredients, obviously including Europe's economic productivity, stability, and growth potential; however, its apparent security for asset-holders as compared with the more thoroughly weaponized U.S. financial system is also a key factor. And then there is, of course, European states' relatively far greater vulnerability than Washington in the case of any escalations of the broader NATO-Russia conflict.It is understandable why the EU has so far balked on agreement to a plan of outright confiscation of Russian funds. It has, instead, begun to implement a much more moderate approach of reallocating to Kyiv the sizable interest payments being generated by the frozen assets. However, the G7 is still due to discuss the proposal for seizure at its next meeting. The Biden administration, along with Canada and Japan, remain strong backers of this idea.A Financial Coalition of the Willing?Debates are intensifying. For example, when Swiss lawmakers discussed reparations involvement this month, the motions were adopted in the Senate by 21 votes to 19, with three abstentions. Some senators worried about "weakening" international law protections, which "exist to protect small states." Those misgivings are still more widely shared beyond Europe, of course, as large swathes of the Global South know precisely how vulnerable they can already be to Western sanctions. A dubious new practice of asset confiscation would make U.S. dollar power, already a subject of widespread discontent, even more unpalatable.If the G7 financial offensive provokes as much backlash as it seems poised to, could China stand to benefit? Certainly, Beijing is likely to reap diplomatic dividends from perceptions that Western financial warfare has become too extreme. Xi Jinping's Party center has emphasized portraying China as a law-abiding global power, especially by embracing UN institutions (where it, of course, exerts great influence at little cost). The contrast with a G7 maneuvering around the UN at every turn makes a potent impression in the Global South.A separate question is whether China's vision of a "de-dollarized" world could receive a boost from Western confiscation efforts. Certainly, Beijing has long sought to increase the yuan's share of global foreign currency reserves and cross-border usage, and has made some recent progress. The RMB would indeed become more attractive as dollar and euro accounts began to look ever more vulnerable to seizure.But it has a long way to go. Currently, the yuan is only the fifth global reserve currency, still narrowly trailing the yen and the pound. It is also limited by domestic economic issues and, especially China's strict capital controls and heavily managed exchange rates. As a recent article produced for a PRC Ministry of Education research project phrased it, given all of the current obstacles to international use of the RMB, even for Russia itself, "de-dollarization cannot be a complete renminbization."Still, intensified weaponization of Western currencies could indeed boost China's yuan efforts, and, more significantly, provide a major stimulus to plans for a BRICS basket reserve currency. The move would simultaneously improve Beijing's reputation as an apparently more responsible actor with respect to foreign assets, while also perversely incentivizing it to further experiment with its own nascent unilateral sanctions regime.A managed process of de-dollarization with cross-bloc participation could be a good thing, but a chaotic transition triggered by Western hubris, provoking similar ventures by great power rivals, would not be. Like the "coalition of the willing" that supported the illegal Iraq War in 2003, arguably helping to normalize behaviors like those of Russia today, the coalition now aligning for ever-escalating financial warfare may ultimately weaken international law protections for everyone, not only their intended targets. It is time to put a freeze on the transition to seizure.

Muhammad Zia Mehmood is a PhD candidate in the Business and Public Policy Program at the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley. In his job market paper, Zia studies the demand for and potential of business trainings provided over text messages to impact outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in Kenya. This study was supported by CEGA's Development Economics Challenge initiative. This blog post was originally published on the Econ That Really Matters blog.A small business welder at work. Credit: Adobe StockIntroductionSmall businesses form the economic backbone of low-income countries and strengthening these enterprises is fundamental to alleviating poverty. Poor management practices is a major factor constraining firm productivity in these contexts, and over $1 billion is spent annually to address this constraint by providing business trainings to entrepreneurs. However, most of these are conventional, in-person, classroom-style trainings, which are expensive and hard to scale, and can exclude those who are unable to participate in person. Due to their low costs, scalability, and reach, phone-based trainings are gaining popularity as a potential solution, but there is limited evidence on whether remotely provided trainings are effective for micro-entrepreneurs in low-income settings.In my job market paper, I study the demand for and potential of text message-based business trainings using a field experiment in Kenya, in which access to an SMS-based training was randomized across 4,700 micro-entrepreneurs. I estimate short- and longer-run impacts using phone-based surveys conducted three months (Midline: 307 observations) and twelve months (Endline: 2,780 observations) after the intervention. I also elicit ex ante predictions for 12-month treatment effects from researchers through the Social Science Predictions Platform (SSPP), to assess whether the main findings depart from existing priors. Finally, I measure demand for the trainings through Take-It-Or-Leave-It (TIOLI) offers and the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) willingness-to-pay elicitation method for a subset of the sample.Context and InterventionAccording to a 2016 nationwide survey of small businesses in Kenya, 90 percent of micro-entrepreneurs had never received any type of business training. This was reflected in their business practices: More than three-fourths did not advertise any of their products, over two-thirds didn't keep any business records, and less than a tenth accounted for prices set by their competitors when choosing their own prices.I partnered with a local firm specializing in digital content development and dissemination to implement an SMS-based training aimed at addressing these management gaps and others. Available in English and Swahili, the training modules covered best practices, including marketing, advertising, pricing, record-keeping, and stock management. The content was structured around stories about the decisions of hypothetical micro-entrepreneurs in different scenarios. Users accessed the trainings through self-paced engagement with an interactive chat-bot, which sent bite-sized chunks spanning about 150 text messages. The entire training could be completed in five to seven hours, and all content was retained indefinitely on users' phones. Weekly text reminders were sent to those who stopped engaging, and these reminders stopped if engagement was resumed or after two consecutive months of inactivity.The primary sample for the study was sourced from a list of micro-entrepreneurs compiled by my implementation partner and a local microfinance institution. Half of the study sample consists of female micro-entrepreneurs, and roughly 45 percent is based in rural areas. The average individual was about 35 years old, and had completed almost twelve years of education (high school level).Figure 1: Screenshots of user engagement with the chatbot. Note: This figure shows screenshots of interactions with the SMS-based chatbot as it pushes out content to users. In this context, most micro-entrepreneurs set prices just based on their buying costs, without accounting for prices of their competitors, so the content pushes them to change their pricing strategy. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodResultsThree months after the intervention, I find that the SMS training increased knowledge and adoption of best practices by 0.20 and 0.33 standard deviations, respectively. I also find large positive, but statistically insignificant, effects on business performance in the overall sample, and significant positive effects for younger (below-median) micro-entrepreneurs on sales (109 percent increase), profits (38 percent increase), and business survival (11.6 percentage points increase). These positive effects for younger entrepreneurs are driven by higher engagement with the content, and larger effects on time spent on business, and loan amounts applied for and received.However, these positive results dissipate in the longer run; twelve months after the intervention, I see no effects on knowledge and adoption of best practices, as well as business sales, profits and survival. Additionally, the positive effects on business outcomes observed for younger entrepreneurs at three months disappear after twelve months. The lack of long-term impact was likely driven by micro-entrepreneurs abandoning all interactions with the content within the first few months of the intervention. The survival curve in Figure 2 shows how all cumulative aggregate engagement with the platform ended by May 2022 — five months into the intervention.Figure 2: Survival curve of interactions with chatbot. Note: This figure illustrates how interactions with the chatbot were distributed throughout the study period. The plot shows reverse cumulative engagement over time; for example, it shows that 80% of all the interactions with the chat-bot throughout the course of the study, had ended by 4/1/2022. The shaded areas represent the time-spans during which the Midline and Endline surveys were conducted. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodFigure 3: Predictions vs observed treatment effects. Note: This figure shows how predicted treatment effects for the Endline compare with observed Midline and Endline effects. Error bars represent 90% confidence intervals. Credit: Muhammad Zia MehmoodFigure 3 illustrates how these results compare with predictions for 12-month treatment effects elicited ex ante through the SSPP. I find that SSPP researchers overestimated the engagement levels, both in terms of the proportion of the treatment group that would start engaging with the content (50 percent vs 30 percent) and how much training content the average user would complete after twelve months (40 percent vs 7 percent). Furthermore, predictions for the 12-month treatment effects on knowledge and adoption of best practices are somewhat similar to observed effects at three months, but significantly overestimated in light of observed 12-month treatment effects. Effects on business performance offer a similar story: SSPP predictions for the 12-month treatment effects on sales and profits are similar in magnitude to effects observed at three months (albeit statistically insignificant), but they grossly overestimate the effects at twelve months.Additionally, notwithstanding the low engagement and lack of longer-run effects, I find positive demand for SMS-based trainings among micro-entrepreneurs; both methods of elicitation — the TIOLI offers and the BDM exercise — reveal that individuals are willing to pay a small amount for an additional SMS-based training, suggesting that they value access to the content.Policy ImplicationsThese results indicate that SMS-based trainings are unlikely to improve outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in the long run, despite their growing popularity in low-income and less accessible settings. These findings also highlight the lack of engagement with trainings as a major challenge that limits the potential of remotely-provided information-based support.Further, the forecasting exercise reveals that social science researchers overestimate the potential of SMS-based trainings to improve outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs, and the findings from this study are thus contrary to priors. Updating these priors is important because policymakers and practitioners often rely on social science experts to make decisions about how to invest in remote, information-based support programs.Lastly, the results on willingness to pay suggest that engagement with the content might not reflect the actual demand for SMS-based trainings, pointing towards possible behavioral drivers constraining engagement. To capitalize on the full potential of digital content delivery in low-income settings, further research is needed to shed light on how to encourage engagement with remotely provided content.Short Messages Fall Short for Micro-Entrepreneurs: Experimental Evidence from Kenya was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Are you looking for the perfect foreign policy book to start the New Year right? We spent the last few weeks asking our favorite thinkers what new titles they loved this year. Here are the seven books that stood out in 2023.Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy

By Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman"Underground Empire" tells the story of how America used the unipolar moment to create a vice grip on the international economy, making it impossible for most countries to do business with each other (or even exchange messages) without using U.S. payment systems or IT infrastructure. The world order, once defined by multiple dueling blocs, thus became synonymous with U.S. power.But empire isn't free. As Farrell and Newman note, Washington's constant use of sanctions and spying tools risks alienating other states and potentially bringing down the international system as we know it. Their book is a frightening reminder of the potential costs of overreach and a must-read for anyone interested in grand strategy and the future of global commerce. Ambitious readers may want to pair it with Chris Miller's "Chip War," a 2022 bestseller about America's quest to remain the kingpin of the world microchip industry.Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East

By Steven SimonWhen observing the parlous state of the Middle East today, it's hard to avoid a fundamental question: How could well-meaning American policymakers have gotten the region so wrong? In "Grand Delusion," Simon argues that most of our missteps boil down to a mismatch between pie-in-the-sky ends and limited means, made worse by a conviction that "facts don't matter, only intentions." The biting and well-researched book is made all the more powerful by Simon's long background of government service, including top-level roles in both the Clinton and Obama administrations, where he argued in favor of many policies that he now badly regrets.Simon brings a palpable sense of anger at four decades of American overreach in the Middle East, dedicating a chapter to each of the last eight presidents, all of whom found their own unique ways to leave the region worse than it was when they took office. His book is a must-read for those who want to understand where U.S. policy went wrong — and how to do things better next time. (Simon, we should note, is a senior research analyst at the Quincy Institute, which publishes RS.)The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism

By Keyu JinThese days, most English-language books about China begin from a place of deep skepticism. Government statistics are taken as carefully crafted fictions, official statements as likely lies. What else would one expect as a new cold war dawns?"The New China Playbook" is different. Written by a London-based economist whose father is a prominent Chinese Communist Party official, the book offers a rigorous yet sympathetic view of Beijing's rise. Jin's work provides crucial insights into the complex and sometimes surprising balance that the Chinese economy has struck between different systems. By demystifying China's economy, she urges us to consider a future of cooperation instead of conflict.Some have argued that Jin glosses over the darker aspects of Beijing's government policies. Readers can decide for themselves. But one thing is certain: Her book offers a thoughtful point of view on China that you won't find anywhere else.Victory at Sea: Naval Power and the Transformation of the Global Order in World War II

By Paul KennedyCould any list of foreign policy must-reads be complete without a book about WWII? We certainly didn't think so. Enter "Victory at Sea," a wide-ranging yet page-turning look at the naval activities that defined last century's greatest war from an eminent military historian. Kennedy's book, which features new paintings from marine artist Ian Marshall, narrates the fall of old great powers and the rise of new ones, first and foremost led by the United States.Readers with a limited background in naval history shouldn't fear this book, which is less about the details of each individual battle than the broader trends in geopolitics playing out at the time. Some reviewers have noted minor factual errors emanating from some less-than-ideal sourcing, but all in all, "Victory at Sea" is a helpful and provocative overview of a vital moment in military history. (This one was technically published in 2022, but the paperback edition doesn't come out until next year, so we'll call it even.)A Day in the Life of Abed Salama: Anatomy of a Jerusalem Tragedy

By Nathan ThrallThe book starts with a living nightmare: A truck slams into a Jerusalem school bus carrying kindergartners, leaving one teacher and six children dead. Many survivors left the resulting fire with life-changing burns."A Day in the Life of Abed Salama" tells the story of the father of one of those children. Thrall narrates Salama's desperate efforts to find his son, an emotional struggle made all the more difficult by the fact that the life-long resident of Jerusalem could not legally enter Jewish-controlled parts of the city.The book expands on a 2021 essay in the New York Review of Books in which Thrall interlaces stories about the accident with a crash course in Jerusalem's history. The extra space allows Thrall to dive deeper into Salama's life, in which everything from his marriage to his child's education is shaped by the brutal realities of life under occupation. As war rages in Gaza, this book offers a moving testimony of the more mundane forms of violence that define life between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.Getting Russia Right

By Thomas GrahamSome books argue that the U.S. and Russia are natural enemies, doomed to fight until one side wins. Others blame one country or the other for a laundry list of sins that made cooperation impossible after the heady days of the 1990s. "Getting Russia Right," to its great credit, does neither.Graham combines a realist sensibility with the hard pragmatism of a long-time policymaker, drawing on a wealth of experience as in both government and academia. In his view, structural factors — chief among them the difference in how each side views Russia's rightful place in the world — combined with a series of impertinent decisions by both sides to leave bilateral relations in their current sorry state.By insisting on the agency of both Washington and Moscow, "Getting Russia Right" argues that better-informed decisions could actually lead to better outcomes. And Graham, in his typical style, lays out a clear and specific set of recommendations to encourage such a shift. His relatively short book is required reading for those who feel like one Cold War was more than enough.Beyond the Water's Edge: How Partisanship Corrupts U.S. Foreign Policy

By Paul PillarThere's an old truism that, while American politicians play partisan games over domestic problems, such petty squabbles give way to unity "at the water's edge." Pillar's book destroys this fiction, illuminating how party interests have all too often taken precedence over sober-minded analysis by patriotic bureaucrats. This phenomenon, in his telling, leads to unnecessarily long wars and corrodes our own democracy at home.While "Beyond the Water's Edge" largely focuses on the past three decades, Pillar sometimes reaches further back into U.S. history to demonstrate the ways in which officials have overcome this tendency. But Pillar, who is a former intelligence official and current non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute, is far from pollyannaish: The book recommends myriad policies to reduce the influence of partisanship on foreign policy but deems their implementation highly unlikely. Little wonder that Francis Fukuyama described the slim treatise as an "ominous warning."

The Houthis are creating a global shipping crisis as they draw support and tribute from other Muslim countries and peoples for standing up for Palestinians in Gaza. But how far will it go before the West punches back in defense of "world trade" and regional security?On December 18, the Department of Defense announced the formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian. The ten-nation force aims to ensure maritime security in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb, which is a shipping chokepoint between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Since October 7, the Houthis have launched more than a hundred armed drone and missile attacks — including several aimed at US warships on Saturday — claiming that they are targeting any and all vessels with links to Israel.These threats have caused global shipping companies to divert away from the Red Sea. Many are now sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, which can add over a week to sailing times and as much as 20% to shipping costs. The diversions are also impacting Egypt's fragile economy. Tolls from the Suez Canal are a significant source of hard currency for the Egyptian government. Additionally, the Israeli port of Eilat has seen its revenues decline by 80%. While the global costs of the Houthis' attacks on shipping are steadily increasing, the attacks are paying hefty political and even strategic dividends for the Houthis, who appear to be winning on the public relations front both in and outside Yemen. In Yemen, support for the Houthis, even among some enemies, has increased. In many other Muslim nations, the Houthis are viewed as being "the only Muslim group standing against Israeli aggression." The high profile attacks, including the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, have stoked national pride among many Yemenis. The Houthis' sophisticated strategic communications operations draw all of these attacks to the attention of domestic and international audiences. According to Yemeni sources who spoke to this author, this has supercharged recruitment for the Houthis and has also led to an influx of donations to the war effort from Yemeni businesses and individual citizens. The attacks are also a demonstration of the Houthis' geographical reach and of their emergence as a regional power.The only negative consequence of the anti-Israel campaign, at least so far, has been a reduction of the number of ships docking in the Houthi-controlled ports of Hodeidah and Salif. Yemen imports well over 90% of its food and a majority of the imports arrive via Hodeidah. Duties and taxes arising from the port are an important source of revenue for the Houthis. Reduced dockings at Hodeidah and rising maritime insurance costs will begin to bite, too.However, it is the Yemeni people who will pay the heaviest price. The Houthis enjoy multiple revenue streams which include everything from a range of efficiently collected taxes, the seizure of businesses and properties, to interests in illicit activities that range from human and arms trafficking to the manufacture and distribution of various drugs.The Houthis are hardwired for resilience and adaptability. Nearly two decades of war have honed the Houthis' war fighting capabilities. After the effective fall of the Yemeni government in September 2014, the Houthis further enhanced these capabilities by grafting their organization into what remained of the Yemeni military and intelligence services. Since 2014, the Houthis have systematically taken over almost every aspect of civil governance, security, education, and the economy in northwest Yemen.While the Houthis were and remain one of the finest guerrilla fighting forces in the region, if not the world, their success on and off the battlefield in Yemen has been aided by the ineptitude and disunity of their enemies. Yemen's Internationally Recognized Government (IRG) and the cobbled together Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) have consistently failed to unify the dozens of militias that operate in those areas outside Houthi control. Additionally, the IRG has failed to reign in endemic corruption. A considerable portion of the Houthis' arms and materiel comes from what Saudi Arabia and the UAE provide to their proxies in Yemen. Many of these Saudi and Emirati supported militias sell weaponry into Yemen's thriving arms market where the Houthis or their agents buy the weapons. This is not to argue that there isn't corruption within the Houthi organization. There is. However, the corruption is managed and largely limited to senior members of the organization. The Houthis exercise tight command and control over their arsenals, weapons assembly facilities, government ministries, and a burgeoning economic empire in Yemen. Northwest Yemen has never had a more efficient or brutal government than the current Houthi-led regime.Since October 7, the U.S. and its allies have focused on defensive measures aimed at intercepting the Houthis missiles and drones. The costs of these measures are steadily increasing. The U.S. and its allies cannot easily continue to expend large numbers of scarce multimillion-dollar missiles to take out drones that can cost as little as a thousand dollars. The Houthis have factories, many of which are located in hard-to-target dense urban areas, which can manufacture — supplies permitting—dozens to hundreds of low-end drones per week. More sophisticated drones are produced at a slower pace, but the Houthis can still assemble several hundred of these over the course of a few months. While the Houthis have and continue to receive assistance and materiel from Iran, almost all the Houthis' drones and missiles are assembled in Yemen. The Houthis are also increasingly focused on modifying and adapting Iranian designs for missiles and drones to suite their own particular requirements.To date, the Houthis have only used a fraction of the armed drones and missiles that they currently possess. Nor have the Houthis made use of their more sophisticated longer-range drones and missiles. The Houthis also possess large numbers of naval mines, including hard to detect influence mines.The U.S.-led collation of ships that is now assembled in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, combined with the on-shore assets in neighboring countries, possesses enough firepower to degrade the Houthis' military capabilities, at least over the short term. However, such a campaign will need to be sustained for what could be months and will come at a tremendous cost for all involved. The Houthis are masters of asymmetric warfare—as clearly evidenced by their Red Sea campaign—and will respond to U.S.-led strikes by attacking energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Houthis will also deploy more sophisticated missiles and armed drones. While U.S. and coalition warships will likely be able to defend themselves against these weapons, commercial shipping, especially tankers, will be increasingly vulnerable. The Houthis have already effectively closed the Bab al-Mandeb to many global shipping companies. Higher-intensity conflict in and around the Bab al-Mandeb could mean that Red Sea shipping traffic is diminished—or even stopped altogether—for months. The Houthis have largely achieved their objectives: impose costs on Israel and its allies, demonstrate their regional reach, and bolster domestic support. The U.S. and its allies have no good options when it comes to dealing with the Houthis. Apart from acting to constrain Israel's unrelenting offensive in Gaza, the only way of avoiding entering an escalatory loop is for the U.S. to continue to support Saudi and Omani led efforts aimed at reining in the Houthi's threats and attacks. Yet, at the same time, the Houthis only respect force. The current U.S. response is viewed as toothless by the Houthis, and many other nations and non-state groups will view the response or lack thereof in the same way. The conflict in the Red Sea is a harbinger of what the future holds as the diffusion of low-cost but increasingly capable weapons systems continues. The U.S. and its allies are inevitably going to face more and more situations in which there are no good options as the asymmetry between high and low-cost weapons systems increases.

Key Takeaways from the Africa Evidence Summit CIDR PanelAt the 2023 Africa Evidence Summit, panelists Jeanine Condo (Chief Executive Officer, The Centre for Impact, Innovation and Capacity building for Health Information Systems and Nutrition), Rose Oronje (Director of Public Policy and Knowledge Translation, and Head of Kenya Office, AFIDEP), Aurelia Munene (Founder of Eider Africa), and Constantine Manda (Assistant Professor of Political Science, UC Irvine) joined moderator Daniel Posner (Professor of International Development, UCLA) to explore the varied incentives for African scholars to publish. Amy Shipow (Project Manager, CEGA Global Networks) and Maya Ranganath (Associate Director, CEGA Global Networks and Inclusion) synthesize the discussion to shed light on the publication gap and generate insights on how barriers can be alleviated to allow African scholars to participate fully in scholarly publication.Jeanine Condo speaks on the panel at the 2023 Africa Evidence Summit | Luft Ventures"The research infrastructure on the [African] continent remains very low. Few publications are a reflection of the limited investments governments are putting into research […] There are biases in journals. As a PhD student studying in the US, I was told that I should have my Western professor as a co-author to get published." — Rose Oronje, Director of Public Policy and Knowledge Translation, and Head of Kenya Office, AFIDEP.The Collaboration for Inclusive Development Research (CIDR), co-led by CEGA and the Network for Impact Evaluation Researchers in Africa (NIERA), aims to shift norms in global development research towards a more inclusive ecosystem. At the 2023 Africa Evidence Summit in Nairobi, we organized a panel to discuss how differing incentives and resources contribute to publishing disparities between researchers from high income countries (HIC) and those from low- and -middle-income countries (LMICs). The panel also probed the role of journals, universities, and researchers in HICs in exacerbating (or mitigating) this problem.We present the major themes of the discussion below, which shed light on the barriers and opportunities that African scholars face along the education to evidence-use pipeline.Co-authorship with scholars from HICs can serve as a helpful career stepping stone; however, it is only a small step in changing the research ecosystem to produce more African scholarship.Dr. Condo shared that working with and publishing together with CEGA affiliated professor Paul Gertler was an important lever for her career. Yet, African scholars often face internalized pressure (due to external biases) towards co-authoring with scholars from HICs. When Dr. Oronje asked the nearly 500 Summit attendees, "How many African scholars here are first authors when you submit a publication?," hardly anyone raised their hand, leading her to share that not even she submits academic publications as a first author.Panelists shared the structural obstacles African researchers face to conduct their own rigorous social science research.Since most African universities are "teaching" institutions and prioritize this over research, scholars are left with limited time to pursue their own research agendas. Moreover, faculty are rarely trained to mentor or share resources with their students — challenges that are further exacerbated by the significant time constraints they face. Access to scholars with experience publishing at top-tier universities is also privileged for HIC students, who can more easily build subject-matter expertise simply by attending office hours and speaking with other students and faculty. Without this similar exposure to the most relevant literature and resources, African students instead spend more self-directed time finding, reading, and engaging with a variety of potentially less relevant work."Last year, I was challenging the Vice Chancellor of the University of Rwanda — I am breastfeeding but I am expected to publish three papers. How can I have more space and time to be an equal competitor?" — Jeanine CondoFemale scholars face additional barriers to publishing, even at the highest levels of academia.Dr. Condo recently published a paper on gender inequities in publishing, which outlined that in papers from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), men comprised 61% of first authors, 65% of last authors, and 66% of single authors. A recent survey of over 200 alumni of SSA STEM PhD programs confirmed that women obtain less university and external funding for graduate studies than their male counterparts. Female panelists shared that they had to push back against senior leadership with regard to career expectations in the face of reproductive and domestic responsibilities; they are expected to achieve the same results as their male counterparts but are constrained by additional, invisibilized labor.Given these constraints to African-led authorship, what are the potential solutions to incentivize and support publishing?"Money is the problem and the solution," Dr. Manda shared. Existing funds should be leveraged to support and nurture African researchers so that journals will be eager to publish their work. Dr. Condo recently wrote a grant to research the effects of providing monetary incentives for researchers to publish, instead of accepting small consultancies, where their contributions were less likely to be recognized by name. Preliminary results suggest that this is an effective incentive for SSA researchers. Similarly, panelists cited the dedicated research and pilot funding that CEGA provides to African scholars helps them pursue their own research interests.Investing in the quality of African journals is essential, and can be accomplished through different mechanisms.Panelists urged researchers to publish important work in African journals, which can signal the quality of the journal, can make findings more accessible, and uphold the ethical responsibility to share results with the communities of study. Dr. Oronje also emphasized the need for African scholars to sit on the editorial boards of such journals.Concurrently, HIC journals are making strides to improve geographic equity; for example, PLOS recently announced a policy that authors conducting research outside of their country of origin will be asked to complete a questionnaire that details the ethical, cultural, and scientific considerations taken to uphold inclusivity in their research, including if local authors are included among the authorship list. Making journals open access was another solution proposed by the panel. Initiatives like the Northwestern Research Feedback Project provides LMIC scholars, who have a desk-rejected paper from the Journal of Development Economics (JDE), the opportunity to be matched with a HIC scholar for feedback. While the author is not reconsidered for JDE, it is hoped that the paper can be improved for other submissions.Both Africa-based and HIC-based non-governmental organizations can complement African universities by offering dedicated mentorship to African scholars.Through her work as the founder of Eider Africa, panelist Aurelia Munene is striving to decrease the sense of isolation researchers experience, especially among recent graduates looking to publish. Her organization offers mentorship on essential research and writing skills as well as supports enhancing curricula at African universities. Additionally, panelists mentioned the importance of identifying resources (such as Afrobarometer, the Harvard Dataverse, or datasets of published papers) and training students to use them.While the panel began with discussion about differing incentives to publish, the conversation evolved to mirror CIDR's fundamental goals: how can we best support African researchers so that journals will actively seek out African scholars to publish their research and policymakers will hasten to apply their results?If you are working in this space, we invite you to let us know what you think! We will soon launch an online survey for students, faculty, research professionals, journal editors, and funders to share their thoughts on the current state of inclusion in the evidence ecosystem and ways to improve it. Please watch for the official announcement of this online survey later this month. The results of the survey and other CIDR research will be released in 2024.It Takes a Village to Raise a Researcher was originally published in CEGA on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

Countries with consulates in Hong Kong are trying to figure out how to reengage with the Chinese special administrative region (SAR). Diplomacy and people-to-people interaction (including tourism) stopped in 2019 when anti-government demonstrations erupted. The freeze continued as the protests were quelled, first by Covid-19 fears and infection-control measures and then by China's imposition of a national security law (NSL) for Hong Kong.With conferences and big-ticket events resuming, Hong Kong is back in business. Tourists have returned, though arrivals in the first six months of 2023 were less than half the pre-pandemic level. Business, academic and civil society delegations have trickled in, what with mainland China itself open again.On the political front, countries are only gingerly reengaging with Hong Kong. Official visits by foreign government representatives are not happening – with one exception. In May, Dominic Johnson, Britain's minister for investment, became the first UK minister to visit in five years. In a local newspaper op-ed, he explained that, while Britain would engage "robustly and constructively" with China and Hong Kong when interests converge, it would "stand up for our values and be clear about our right to act when Beijing breaks its international commitments or abuses human rights."In March, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Rick Waters spent a few days in Hong Kong on an unofficial visit before making similarly low-key stops in Shanghai and Beijing. Even as the U.S. and China have reengaged in senior-level talks, including between national leaders, Washington seems intent on keeping its distance from Hong Kong. The White House is reported to be barring Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee from participating in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders' Meeting in San Francisco in November. After the NSL was imposed in 2020, the U.S. sanctioned Lee, then Hong Kong's secretary for security, along with 10 other SAR and Chinese officials. What are the obstacles to U.S. reengagement with Hong Kong? Domestic political pressure from supporters of Hong Kong democracy activists, many in prison in the SAR or in exile, has played a part. The Congressional-Executive Committee on China recently issued a report on the Hong Kong judiciary and the NSL in which it called for sanctions to be imposed on 29 of the city's judges, including the chief justice. The Hong Kong government has not made it easy for the U.S. and other countries to reengage. The announcement of bounties for fugitive dissidents, prosecutions of politicians and activists, the closing down of media outlets, refusing visas to overseas scholars or blocking civil-society figures from entering the SAR, the legal effort to force online platforms to remove a protest anthem from the internet, and other actions by the SAR government have meant that diplomatic outreach can be politically problematic, especially for Washington, given that it no longer recognizes Hong Kong's autonomy. Apocalyptic narratives about life in the SAR have only gained currency inside the Beltway.Has the NSL eviscerated "one country, two systems?" Hong Kong continues to have agency, but under pressure, the government chooses to act in ways that it perceives Beijing would want it to. For example, Hong Kong's ban on seafood imports from Japan after Tokyo began to release Fukushima waste water into the ocean on August 24 hewed to Beijing's position. Second-guessing the sovereign has been a well-established modus operandi of Hong Kong public administration since British colonial days. That the common law still underpins Hong Kong's rule of law remains evident – the legal system continues to function as before, albeit with security-related cases in a separate domain. Consider court judgments such as the rejection of the government's request to remove the protest song from online platforms. (The government is appealing.) Or the overturning of the conviction of an investigative journalist for making false statements. Or a judgment by the Court of Final Appeal on a sentencing case that rejected lower-court references to mainland legal texts. As British minister Johnson argued for his country, it is still in the interest of the U.S. to engage with Hong Kong. The SAR will remain an important international financial center — granted, an international financial center in China – closely aligned with China's growth needs. Hong Kong's role in China's financial and economic development is secure, especially now that the city has restored law and order and moved beyond Covid. Should the U.S. continue to work with the SAR, despite the argument that doing so would benefit China and the Chinese Communist Party? American business and the market will answer that question, if Washington will let them rather than fixate on escalating decoupling. Ask local business leaders or foreign investors in Hong Kong, and many will say that the NSL has at least restored order, public safety and predictability. Whatever one's perspective on the law, what is clear is that the SAR's operating system remains distinct from the mainland's. Indeed, for some in Hong Kong, that Beijing moved ahead with the NSL, despite expectations of sharp criticism from the U.S. and the West, has put paid to the idea that China is setting up Shenzhen or Shanghai to eclipse the SAR. One China watcher in Hong Kong points to the city's universities and their academic freedom, still broader than in mainland institutions, as another key indicator.Cora Chan, a law professor at The University of Hong Kong, has analyzed the relationship between the Hong Kong and Chinese legal orders using German political scientist Ernst Fraenkel's "dual state" framework, which is useful for understanding why it is crucial for the U.S. and other countries that have had robust working relationships with Hong Kong to continue doing so. It is critical to bolster the normative state, which includes the judiciary and higher-education system, that exists in the SAR even as mechanisms of the prerogative state, as represented by the national security apparatus, are applied. Those who care about defending norms should step up — not limit — people-to-people exchanges and other contacts. Now is not the time to shun Hong Kong. In the aftermath of the 2019 protests, the U.S. and other nations sought to attract immigrants from Hong Kong. Facilitating a brain drain may help the destination country in manpower and skills development, but it does not benefit Hong Kong's people and society. For Washington, finding politically palatable ways to work with Hong Kong is challenging. There are collaborative frameworks already in place that could be strengthened, including those for academic exchange, countering human and drug trafficking, customs facilitation, and programs such as the U.S. Container Security Initiative for safeguarding maritime trade and the China-US agreement to allow a U.S. accounting oversight board to investigate audit firms in Hong Kong and the mainland. One obvious low-hanging fruit: the restoration of the Fulbright educational exchange programs for Hong Kong, which Donald Trump suspended in 2020 along with those for China. In March, three members of the House of Representatives introduced a bill to restart the exchanges for both China and Hong Kong. Congressional staffers familiar with the proposed legislation are skeptical that it will pass, especially with the 2024 elections looming. Joe Biden could be politically "bold" and reinstate the exchanges — even if just for Hong Kong — with one signature. Doing so would be a significant sign of support for the SAR's daily norm defenders.

Public libraries, which are undergoing technological and socio-cultural changes, today become centres of socialization of communities, creating social and cultural well-being, therefore, their effective management becomes the object of research. This is also relevant in the implementation of public policy: strategic documents ("Europe 2030", "Lithuania 2030"), which guide public sector bodies to achieve a sustainable economy, also actualize the ability to anticipate the necessary changes in the organization.In addition to the usual long-term strategic goals (providing high-quality various services, programs, resources to people of all ages; developing existing collections; creating an environment that responds to community needs and promotes creativity), municipal libraries aim to strengthen the institution's management and develop local communities. Due to COVID-19, the revised strategic plans of public libraries of the Republic of Lithuania have made the accessibility aspect of services even more relevant. Long-term goals testify to the need for strategic change, at the same time raise the problematic questions: what are the essential aspects of science in the management of strategic change in the municipal public library? What is the situation of strategic change management in Lithuanian municipal public libraries? The research aims to practically investigate the situation of strategic change management in Lithuanian municipal public libraries and to discern the aspects to be improved.Based on the scientific literature, we define strategic change as significant fundamental changes in the organization aimed at positive change: to eliminate shortcomings, negative consequences and take on new challenges inherent in the organization's strategy. They are always linked to the strategic goals of the organization, are changing or touching the entire organization, requiring strategic and change management competencies.The strategic changes implemented in the libraries of the Republic of Lithuania in this decade are more attributable to adaptation or evolution, as there are changes in sustainable growth. According to the hierarchical structural model, strategic administrative (changes in management structures, processes) or strategic functional changes (e.g. changes in personnel, financial management strategy, etc.) are usually initiated in the municipal public libraries themselves. Strategic political and strategic changes in work are mainly driven by politicians. Strategic change requires leadership at all levels of an organization's governance and is generally seen as a significant factor in increasing employees' commitment to change.The management of strategic change in libraries as a process has much in common with the management of strategic change in other public sector institutions. Their management in libraries is influenced by external and internal factors, in particular public policy. Among the internal factors for municipal public libraries, the process of managing changes, in general, is important, as it was common practice in Lithuanian municipalities to work in accordance with the municipal cultural policy strategy without developing a separate strategy for the development of their own, separate institution. In the current context of increasing decentralization of governance, it is increasingly the responsibility of libraries to take the initiative and take care of the long-term goals of the organization.The public libraries of two neighbouring municipalities (Akmenė district and Mažeikiai district) were selected for the research, a strategy of mixed methods was applied, combining qualitative research methods (content analysis of documents) and quantitative research methods (total questionnaire survey of both library employees except director and deputy director usingapklausa.lt, after receiving participants' consent via e-mails).Having analysed the strategic plans and activity reports of the years 2011–2021 of public libraries in municipalities of Akmenė district and Mažeikiai district, it was revealed that the most important strategic changes in the recent period correspond to the guidelines of Lithuanian cultural policy (2010) and were mostly technological changes or technological-organizational: related to building reconstructions, renovations; with the digitization of administrative management and services; with the socialization of socially excluded groups, with the increase of digital literacy of communities through education, etc. The documents testify that the public library in Mažeikiai district, during the research, already had its own strategic plan, while the public library in Akmenė district, was developing its first strategy. Different experiences of strategic management have also led to partly different expressions of strategic change management in libraries. The library in Mažeikiai district constantly performs the analysis of external factors, while the library in Akmenė district yet only intends to do so. Among the external factors, the project activities carried out by Martynas Mažvydas National Library of Lithuania, including public libraries, are important in both cases. By strategizing activities, both libraries conduct the performance analysis using SWOT, highlighting similar weaknesses (limited funding for modernization), strengths (systematically training staff, modernized public library infrastructure, strong collaborative relationships with other public and county libraries).Wider cooperation with business is not yet visible. The library in Akmenė district sees the consideration of the needs of stakeholders and the use of social partners' resources as an opportunity, whereas the library in Mažeikiai district is already planning more active partnership relations, also with Lithuanian and foreign libraries.After conducting the opinion research of the employees of public libraries in Akmenė district and Mažeikiai district, the following most important aspects of the management of strategic changes in the studied municipal public libraries have been revealed:Situation– libraries undergo strategic changes initiated by external institutions through programs and projects; they have experience in implementing strategic change, communicating the results of change; there is no resistance to innovations in libraries; employees begin to be involved in strategic change management through separate sub-processes, while for the time being, managers take the lead in strategic change management; organizations lack a deeper understanding of strategic change, the competencies to initiate them involving the entire library community.Potential– employees would like to be more involved in the management of strategic change: 1) relatively good internal communication about already implemented (mostly project-based) strategic changes is revealed; 2) over 10 percent of employees are already involved in managing strategic change; 3) half of the surveyed employees feel able to offer ideas for innovations and strategic changes, the other 50 percent of employees feel "not invited" to do so; 4) Most staff feel ready to take on good practice from other (including foreign) institutions.This research has confirmed the insights of scholars and cultural strategists that public libraries today are undergoing tremendous change, making long-term perspective knowledge and strategic planning a necessity in every organization. With the growth of decentralization of management as well as the uncertainty due to global changes, in the public sector this is achieved through greater involvement of the community in governance and inter-institutional cooperation. Leadership alone is not enough.This research shows that municipal public libraries have the potential to initiate and manage strategic change themselves, as they have been involved in the implementation of changes initiated by external institutions for 10 years, there is no anti-change attitude in organizations. On the other hand, there is a lack of experience and competencies to anticipate change, initiate change, motivate employees to get involved themselves. This research also raises the debate questions that require broader research: Knowing that municipal public libraries are accustomed to working according to the programs, projects and plans coming from above, the question arises whether the current 2016-2017 legislation on improving library management approved by the Minister of Culture of the Republic of Lithuania is effective and meets today's challenges; why there is no methodological assistance to public libraries on how to improve their management. What governance structure of municipal public libraries would be conducive to increasing staff involvement in strategic change management? What managerial innovations would increase employee motivation to initiate change? ; Išsikėlus teorines prielaidas,kad strateginiais pokyčiais siekiama tobulinti organizacijos veiklą įgyvendinant nacionalinę, vietos kultūros politiką atliepiančius strateginius tikslus, kurių išsikėlime dalyvauja organizacijos bendruomenė, kad pokyčių valdyme svarbi vadovų lyderystė, jų kompetencija valdyti pokyčius, empiriniu tyrimu siekiama ištirti Lietuvos savivaldybių viešųjų bibliotekų strateginių pokyčių valdymo situaciją, įžvelgti tobulintinus aspektus. Bibliotekų vidinių dokumentų analizė bei darbuotojų apklausa parodė, kad bibliotekos geba įgyvendinti kitų inicijuotus pokyčius. Iš organizacijos vidaus pareinančioms iniciatyvoms valdyti, panaudoti turimą pozityvų nusiteikimą dalyvauti pokyčiuose trūksta strateginio valdymo, pokyčių, bendruomenės įtraukimo į pokyčių valdymą kompetencijų, motyvacijos.

"KUNST IST KEINE AUSREDE", lautet der Titel des 2020 veröffentlichten Manifests des auawirleben Theaterfestivals in Bern, in welchem das Festivalteam auf eine transparente Kommunikation ihres Wertesystems abzielt und zu Themen wie Lohnpolitik, Diskriminierung und Nachhaltigkeit klar Position bezieht. Laut der Theaterwissenschaftlerin Alexandra Portmann illustriert dieses öffentliche Statement, wie Festivals politische Diskussionen zu "faire[r] und nachhaltige[r] Kulturproduktion" eröffnen und dabei als "Innovationsmotoren für Arbeitsweisen im Gegenwartstheater" fungieren (S. 25). Die Reihe itw : im dialog positioniert sich an der Schnittstelle zwischen Theorie und Praxis im zeitgenössischen Theater und umfasst Arbeitsbücher zu den gleichnamigen Symposien und Workshops des Berner Instituts für Theaterwissenschaft in Kooperation mit dem ebenfalls dort angesiedelten auawirleben Theaterfestival und der Schweizerischen Gesellschaft für Theaterkultur (SGTK). Der von Alexandra Portmann und Beate Hochholdinger-Reiterer herausgegebene vierte Band, Festivals als Innovationsmotor?, entstand im Rahmen des internationalen Doktorand*innenworkshops 2019 und vereint theoretische Auseinandersetzungen mit Aufführungsanalysen, verschriftlichten Interviews, Künstler*innengesprächen und einer Podiumsdiskussion. Der erste Teil des Bandes verhandelt theaterwissenschaftliche Forschungspositionen zu Innovation, Internationalität, Institutionskritik, Arbeitspraktiken, Freiwilligkeit sowie Zeitlichkeit auf Festivals. Er bietet den theoretischen Rahmen für die nachfolgenden, praxisnahen Interviews mit Sandro Lunin, künstlerischer Leiter der Kaserne Basel, und Philippe Bischof, Direktor der Schweizer Kulturstiftung Pro Helvetia. Der zweite Teil der Publikation beinhaltet je zwei Analysen zu drei sehr unterschiedlichen Inszenierungen der Ausgabe "Wir müssen reden" des auawirleben Theaterfestivals im Jahr 2019, sowie Gespräche der daran beteiligten Künstler*innen. Den Rahmen dafür bilden das Interview mit den Festivalkuratorinnen Nicolette Kretz und Silja Gruner zum Auftakt sowie eine Podiumsdiskussion zur titelgebenden Fragestellung Festivals als Innovationsmotor? zum Abschluss, in welcher Franziska Burkhardt, Leiterin der Kulturabteilung in Bern, Marc Streit, Gründer und Leiter des zürich moves! Festivals, und Alexandra Portmann, Theaterwissenschaftlerin an der Universität Bern, Stellung beziehen. In ihrem einleitenden Beitrag erörtert Portmann die begriffliche Verankerung von Innovation im kulturwissenschaftlichen Diskurs und referenziert u. a. auf Andrea Livia Piazzas Konzept des Neuen (vgl. Piazza 2017). In Gegenüberstellung zu dem sozialwissenschaftlich geprägten Begriff der Innovation, der "die Substitution von etwas Altem" impliziert, verhandelt laut Piazza das Neue in geisteswissenschaftlichen Diskursen "die Beziehung zum Alten jenseits von Substitution" (S. 17). Folglich ist hier anstelle einer linearen Fortschrittslogik von einer "Überlagerung verschiedener Dispositionen" und einer "potentielle[n] Gleichzeitigkeit von Diskursen" die Rede (S. 15). Das Neue steht in diesem Sinne als "Möglichkeitsraum" außerhalb der Norm, der "sich als Alternative zu einem kapitalistischen Realismus präsentiert" (S. 18). Laut Portmann fungiert das Veranstaltungsformat Festival als ein eben solcher Möglichkeitsraum für die Erprobung neuer Arbeits- und Produktionsweisen, die in weiterer Folge für lokale Theatersysteme adaptiert und übernommen werden können. Potential für Innovation ist auf Festivals insbesondere dadurch gegeben, da sie aufgrund des klar definierten Zeitraums, des umfassenden professionellen Netzwerkes sowie schlanker institutioneller Strukturen im Gegensatz zu etablierten Stadt- und Staatstheatern über mehr Flexibilität verfügen. Franziska Burkhardt bestätigt diese Annahme in der abschließenden Podiumsdiskussion: "Anders als feste Häuser können sich Festivals jedes Jahr neu erfinden." (S. 181) Dass der Innovationsbegriff nicht zwangsläufig positiv konnotiert ist, sondern oftmals mit technologisch-ökonomischen Optimierungsbestrebungen und neoliberalen Denkmustern assoziiert wird, zeigt sich im Experteninterview mit Philippe Bischof, der stattdessen für die Umschreibungen "Zukunftsorientierung" und "Zukunftsfähigkeit" plädiert (S. 92). Im Hinblick auf Kulturförderung beschäftigen ihn Fragen nach dem Wirkungspotential und künstlerischen Risiko von neuen Kreationen. Auch Marc Streit verknüpft den Innovationsbegriff mit "einer permanenten Optimierung" (S. 180) und hält diesen folglich nicht für den richtigen Ansatz in den darstellenden Künsten. Sandro Lunin benennt Innovation im Sinne einer Fortschrittslogik nicht als Priorität, sondern befürwortet vielmehr eine "institutionelle Öffnung für andere Arbeitsweisen" (S. 83). Da die "Theaterhäuser stark in komplexen strukturellen Dynamiken verhaftet sind", gilt es, über produktionsorientierte Arbeitsweisen der freien Szene nachzudenken und sich die Frage zu stellen, ob diese übertragbar oder "kompatibel mit klassischen Stadttheater- und Ensemblestrukturen sowie einem Repertoirespielplan" sind (S. 83f.). Lunin endet mit der Feststellung: "Innovation um der Innovation willen ist relativ sinnlos." (S. 85) Wie bereits aus der Deutungsvielfalt des Innovationsbegriffs ersichtlich wird, stehen Festivals im Spannungsfeld zwischen neoliberaler Eventkultur und potenziellem Möglichkeitsraum. Dies zeigt sich ebenso am Beispiel der Freiwilligenarbeit auf Festivals, die sich auf einem schmalen Grat zwischen ausbeuterischen Mechanismen und nachhaltigen Alternativen des Zusammenwirkens bewegt. Regina Rossi begreift das Konzept der Freiwilligkeit am Beispiel der Hamburger HALLO: Festspiele nicht als kostensparende Strategie und Ausbeutung unbezahlter Arbeitskräfte, sondern als "Möglichkeit des Austausches und der Zusammenarbeit im Kreativbereich" (S. 60). Der Vorschlag, ehrenamtliche Tätigkeit auf Festivals als "Keim einer anderen, neuen Form von Unternehmertum" (S. 63) jenseits kapitalistischer Profitzwänge zu begreifen, wirkt angesichts unserer neoliberalen Gesellschaft jedoch äußerst utopisch und läuft Gefahr, die auf Freiwilligkeit basierenden Arbeitsverhältnisse im Kultursektor als unhinterfragten Standard zu festigen. Zwar hat sich in den letzten Jahren gezeigt, dass sogar inmitten höchst kompetitiver, kommerzieller Fringe Festivals Künstler*innen non-monetäre Gegenveranstaltungen gründen und diese alternativen Mikro-Festivals durchaus als gemeinschaftliche Praxis leben (Zaiontz 2018, S. 73–79), zugleich darf nicht verschwiegen werden, dass diese löblichen Projekte vor allem der Eigeninitiative und dem Eigenkapital der Künstler*innen selbst entstammen. Der Beitrag von Sophie Osburg verhandelt den Innovationsbegriff aus einem anderen Blickwinkel. Am Beispiel der Performance-Ausstellung 12 Rooms auf der Ruhrtriennale 2012 analysiert die Autorin das Potential für veränderte Wahrnehmungs- und Rezeptionsweisen auf Festivals, in diesem Fall von Aufführungen im Museumskontext. Hierbei kontrastiert Osburg die Zeitlichkeit auf Festivals, die "ein Temporäres, Kurzweiliges und darin zugleich Komprimiertes suggeriert", mit dem anhaltenden Vollzug der Performance-Ausstellung, die wiederum innerhalb des Festivalgefüges einen "Moment des Andauerns" bzw. laut Roland Barthes eine "Zeit des Innehaltens" markiert (S. 71f.). Am Beispiel der Volksbühnen-Debatte 2017 im Zuge des offiziellen Antritts Chris Dercons als Intendant stellt Ann-Christine Simke Überlegungen zu konstruktiver Institutionskritik an. Befürchtungen vor einer mit der neuen Intendanz einhergehenden "institutionelle[n] Entleerung sowie rhetorische[n] Konformität mit hegemonialen Marktstrukturen" wurden mit Castorfs Intendanzübernahme Anfang der 1990er Jahre kontrastiert sowie mit dessen grundsätzlichem "Willen zur Umdeutung und Neustrukturierung der Institutionen aus einem antagonistischen Geist heraus" (S. 49). Die Bezugnahme auf die thematische Ausrichtung des Sammelbands erschließt sich erst auf den zweiten Blick: Simke warnt vor einer problematischen Gegenüberstellung eines "neoliberalen Kurators" mit einem "widerständigen Künstler-Intendanten" (S. 50), in anderen Worten, vor einer verkürzten Kontrastierung von "Innovation" als neoliberale Marktstrategie mit dem "Neuen" als künstlerischem Versprechen (S. 44ff.). Einen Ausreißer zur geographischen und zeitlichen Verortung der analysierten Theaterfestivals und Spielstätten im deutschsprachigen Raum des 21. Jahrhunderts bildet der englischsprachige Beitrag von Helen Gush, in welchem der Einfluss der World Theatre Season von 1964 bis 1975 auf das internationale Repertoire diverser Londoner Theater sowie auf das Entstehen künstlerischer Kollaborationen anhand etlicher Beispiele exemplifiziert wird. Das Ende der World Theatre Season ging schließlich mit Festivalneugründungen einher, u. a. des London International Festival of Theatre (LIFT), welches ebenso "a genealogical link between the humanist internationalism and the promise of innovation" erkennen lässt (S. 40). Bei näherer Betrachtung ist festzustellen, dass die theaterwissenschaftlichen Forschungspositionen des Sammelbands die titelgebende Fragestellung anhand sehr unterschiedlicher Perspektiven und Fallbeispiele verhandeln. Unbestritten bleibt, dass das Veranstaltungsformat Festival aufgrund seines ephemeren Charakters innerhalb eines klar definierten Zeitraums, seiner Nähe zu Produktionen der freien Szene, der schlanken institutionellen Struktur, den oftmals flachen Hierarchien, des breit gefassten Netzwerkes sowie einer grundsätzlichen Neugierde und Offenheit des Publikums durchaus das Potential birgt, Neues auszuprobieren – sei dies auf, vor oder hinter der Bühne –, um damit auch feste Theaterhäuser zu inspirieren und zu verändern. Die zweite Hälfte des Sammelbands widmet sich schließlich den Aufführungsanalysen, deren individuelle Schwerpunkte hinsichtlich der heterogenen Theaterproduktionen eine abwechslungsreiche Lektüre versprechen. Die polnische Produktion Jeden Gest unter der Regie von Wojtek Ziemilski, ein linguistischer Seiltanzakt zwischen Kommunikationssystemen, eröffnet dem Publikum die soziale Wirklichkeit von vier polnischen Gehörlosen. Johanna Hilari diskutiert dabei die "Auseinandersetzung mit sozialer Realität und theatraler Praxis" (S. 110) in dokumentarischen Theaterformen und deren Vermittlung durch kontextualisierende Programmangebote, die eine "nachträgliche Aktivierung" des Publikums "durch diskursive, didaktische oder performative Formate" erwirken (S. 113). Benjamin Hoesch setzt sich am Beispiel dieser Inszenierung kritisch mit der Terminologie der Regiehandschrift in dokumentarischen Theaterformen auseinander und kommt zu dem Schluss, dass "Kommunikation in der Aufführung […] nie auf 'eine' Subjektivität, Intention, Wirkung und Verfügung zu reduzieren ist" (S. 124). In der ironisch angelegten Inszenierung Workshop erklären in collagenhaft aufeinanderfolgenden Kurzvorträgen drei Männer die Welt: Mart Kangro, Juhan Ulfsak und Eero Epner aus Tallinn lassen dabei Fragen zu Machtasymmetrien und Geschlechterverhältnissen entstehen, ohne diese explizit selbst zu formulieren geschweige denn zu beantworten. Alina Aleshchenko greift das Phänomen des "mansplaining" auf, ein "Erklären, ohne darin Experte zu sein" (S. 138), und diskutiert anhand dessen Machtasymmetrien zwischen Erzählenden und Zuhörenden im Theater. Die konventionelle Wissenshierarchie im westlichen Theater der "stimmvollen" Darsteller*innen und "stimmlosen" Zuschauer*innen (S. 141) wird auch in dieser Inszenierung reproduziert, woraufhin Aleshchenko schlussfolgert, Workshop eröffne einen spannenden Diskurs, stelle "selbst jedoch keine Reflexion darüber auf ästhetischer oder Produktionsebene" an (S. 142). Yana Prinsloo untersucht in eben jener Inszenierung die Position der Zuschauer*innen als Prosument*innen nach Hanno Rauterberg (Rauterberg 2015) und kontrastiert die auf der Bühne zu beobachtende "Überforderung gegenüber der selbstermächtigten und individuellen Lebensgestaltung" (S. 149) mit der Vorstellung eines (als männlich markierten) "konsumatorischen Kreativsubjekts" nach Andreas Reckwitz (Reckwitz 2020). In dem Ein-Personen-Stück Un faible degré d'originalité, einer Lecture-Performance an der Schnittstelle zwischen akademischem Vortrag und Theaterinszenierung, führt Antoine Defoort das Publikum auf eine zugleich didaktische und amüsante Reise durch den Dschungel des Urheberrechts. Am Beispiel dieser Inszenierung widmet sich der Beitrag von Vera Nitsche der kreativen Wissensproduktion und -vermittlung auf der Bühne. "Ohne vierte Wand und das Publikum direkt adressierend", präsentiert Antoine Defoort ein "conférence-spectacle" (S. 160) und strukturiert dessen Aufbau gemäß der strengen Gliederung einer französischen Forschungsarbeit ("dissertation"). Nitsche sieht in künstlerischer Forschung das Potential, "den klassischen akademischen Wissenschaftsbegriff zu hinterfragen" und "neue Sicht- und Vorgehensweisen sowie andere Formen der Expertise" in einen "pränormativen Raum" der wissenschaftlichen Forschung einzubringen (S. 166). Géraldine Boesch untersucht die eben beschriebene Inszenierung als "(laut)malerische Bergwanderung" im Hinblick auf die detailreiche Wortkulisse und onomatopoetischen Effekte zur "Untermalung der expressiven Gestik und Mimik" (S. 169). Zusammenfassend wäre zu sagen, dass die vielseitigen Beiträge des Sammelbands eine kurzweilige Leseerfahrung bieten. Theoretische Überlegungen werden in praxisnahen Künstler*innengesprächen diskutiert und mittels beispielhafter Aufführungsanalysen überprüft. Die Mehrheit der Beiträge orientiert sich an der titelgebenden Fragestellung Festivals als Innovationsmotor?; andere wiederum sind weniger stark in die inhaltliche Gesamtkomposition des Sammelbands eingeflochten, dies ist jedoch nicht weiter störend. Wie schon der Buchtitel mit einem Fragezeichen endet, so gibt auch diese Publikation anstelle von Antworten vielmehr Denkanstöße für eigene Überlegungen und eröffnet neue Fragestellungen für die Festivalforschung. Literatur: auawirleben Theaterfestival: "KUNST IST KEINE AUSREDE. Das Manifest von auawirleben". Bern: 09.01.2020. https://auawirleben.ch/verantwortung/manifest#/. Zugriff am 25.03.2021. Piazza, Andrea Livia: The Concept of the New. Framing Production and Value in Contemporary Performing Arts. Opladen/Berlin/Toronto: Budrich UniPress 2017. Rauterberg, Hanno: Die Kunst und das gute Leben. Über die Ethik der Ästhetik. Berlin: Suhrkamp 2015. Reckwitz, Andreas: Das hybride Subjekt. Eine Theorie der Subjektkulturen von der bürgerlichen Moderne zur Postmoderne. Berlin: Suhrkamp 2020. Die dazu auf [rezens.tfm] erschienene Buchbesprechung von Theresa Eisele ist unter folgendem Link abrufbar: https://rezenstfm.univie.ac.at/index.php/tfm/article/view/4325. Zaiontz, Keren: theatre & festivals. London: Macmillan Education Palgrave 2018.

Εισαγωγή: Η πολυνοσηρότητα ορίζεται ως η συνύπαρξη δύο ή περισσότερων χρόνιων ασθενειών. Καθώς το προσδόκιμο ζωής αυξάνεται, το ίδιο ισχύει και για τον επιπολασμό της πολυνοσηρότητας. Ο εντοπισμός των παραγόντων που σχετίζονται είτε με υψηλή είτε με χαμηλή πολυνοσηρότητα στον πληθυσμό είναι σημαντικός. Υπάρχουν περιορισμένες ενδείξεις σχετικά με τη συσχέτιση της Μεσογειακής διατροφής με την ύπαρξη πολυνοσηρότητας σε ένα άτομο. Οι στόχοι αυτής της διδακτορικής διατριβής ήταν: α) να εκτιμηθεί ο επιπολασμός της πολυνοσηρότητας στην Κύπρο και να εντοπιστούν οι πιο συχνές χρόνιες ασθένειες, β) να εξεταστεί η απήχηση της Μεσογειακής διατροφής στον ενήλικο γενικό πληθυσμό της Κύπρου και η σχέση της με την πολυνοσηρότητα, και γ) να υπολογιστεί η ποιότητα του ύπνου στην Κύπρο και να αξιολογηθεί η σχέση της με την πολυνοσηρότητα. Μέθοδοι: Η μελέτη ήταν συγχρονική και εφαρμόστηκε στρωματοποιημένη δειγματοληψία. Ένα αντιπροσωπευτικό δείγμα ατόμων άνω των 18 ετών ερευνήθηκε κατά την περίοδο 2018-2019 στις πέντε επαρχίες της Κυπριακής Δημοκρατίας που βρίσκονται υπό τον έλεγχο της Κυπριακής κυβέρνησης. Δημογραφικά στοιχεία, πληροφορίες για τη διατροφή, δεδομένα για την ποιότητα του ύπνου, το κάπνισμα και τη σωματική δραστηριότητα, καθώς και η παρουσία χρόνιων, κλινικών και ψυχικών ασθενειών συλλέχθηκαν χρησιμοποιώντας ένα επικυρωμένο ερωτηματολόγιο. Οι ασθένειες ταξινομήθηκαν σύμφωνα με τη διεθνή ταξινόμηση των ασθενειών, 10η αναθεώρηση (ICD-10). Αποτελέσματα: Η μέση ηλικία των 1140 συμμετεχόντων ήταν 41 ± 17 έτη, 56% από αυτούς ήταν γυναίκες, 76% ήταν κάτοικοι αστικής περιοχής, 54% ήταν παντρεμένοι, 64% είχαν ανώτερη εκπαίδευση και το 50% είχαν ετήσιο μέσο εισόδημα €6,500- €19,500. Ο τυποποιημένος ως προς την ηλικία και το φύλο επιπολασμός της πολυνοσηρότητας ήταν 28.6%. Η πολυνοσηρότητα σχετίζεται με την ηλικία (p <0.01), με το υψηλότερο ποσοστό να παρατηρείται σε άτομα ηλικίας 65 ετών και άνω (68.9%). Η πολυνοσηρότητα ήταν υψηλότερη στις γυναίκες παρά στους άνδρες (28.2% έναντι 22.5%, p <0.01), ενώ τα ποσοστά ήταν παρόμοια στις αστικές και στις αγροτικές περιοχές (26.4% έναντι 23.8%, p = 0.40). Οι πιο διαδεδομένες χρόνιες ασθένειες μεταξύ ατόμων με πολυνοσηρότητα ήταν η υπερλιπιδαιμία (44.7%), ακολουθούμενη από υπέρταση (37.5%), γαστρική παλινδρόμηση (23.9%) και ασθένειες του θυρεοειδούς (22.2%), ενώ οι πιο συνηθισμένοι συνδυασμοί ασθενειών ήταν στο κυκλοφορικό και ενδοκρινολογικό σύστημα. Το προφίλ του ατόμου με πολυνοσηρότητα δείχνει ένα άτομο μεγαλύτερης ηλικίας, με υψηλότερο δείκτη μάζας σώματος, που είναι καπνιστής και έχει υψηλότερο μισθό. Η μέση βαθμολογία της Μεσογειακής Διατροφής ήταν 15.5 ± 4.0 με τους άνδρες και τους κατοίκους των αγροτικών περιοχών να έχουν μεγαλύτερη συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή Διατροφή σε σύγκριση με τις γυναίκες και τους κατοίκους των αστικών περιοχών, αντίστοιχα (p<0.05). Το να έχει ένα άτομο μεγαλύτερη συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή Διατροφή σχετίζεται με χαμηλότερες πιθανότητες πολυνοσηρότητας και αυτό το αποτέλεσμα ήταν στατιστικά σημαντικό ακόμη και μετά την προσαρμογή των αποτελεσμάτων για την ηλικία, το φύλο, τις συνήθειες καπνίσματος και τη σωματική δραστηριότητα (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.99). Η μέση βαθμολογία ποιότητας ύπνου των συμμετεχόντων ήταν 5 (q1=3, q3=7) με τη μέγιστη βαθμολογία να είναι 17. Οι γυναίκες, οι κάτοικοι της Πάφου και οι παντρεμένοι είχαν χαμηλότερη ποιότητα ύπνου (p <0.05). Η καλύτερη ποιότητα ύπνου συσχετίστηκε με χαμηλότερες πιθανότητες πολυνοσηρότητας, ακόμη και μετά την προσαρμογή για δημογραφικούς και κοινωνικοοικονομικούς παράγοντες καθώς και τρόπο ζωής (OR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.16). Συμπεράσματα: Περισσότερο από το ένα τέταρτο του γενικού πληθυσμού της Κύπρου έχει πολυνοσηρότητα και το ποσοστό αυτό είναι σχεδόν 70% μεταξύ των ατόμων άνω των 65 ετών. Η πολυνοσηρότητα είναι σχετικά συχνή ακόμη και σε νεότερες ηλικίες. Η συμμόρφωση στη Μεσογειακή διατροφή και η καλύτερη ποιότητα του ύπνου σχετίζονται με χαμηλότερο κίνδυνο πολυνοσηρότητας. Τα αποτελέσματα της μελέτης υπογραμμίζουν την ανάγκη για στρατηγικές πρόληψης και προγράμματα ευαισθητοποίησης για την υγεία για ολόκληρο τον πληθυσμό. Προγράμματα πρόληψης και οδηγίες πρακτικής δημόσιας υγείας στην Κύπρο και αλλού θα πρέπει να λάβουν υπόψη τα παραπάνω αποτελέσματα και θα πρέπει να αναπτυχθούν κατευθυντήριες γραμμές για τη δημόσια υγεία υπογραμμίζοντας τη σημασία της τήρησης της Μεσογειακής διατροφής και της καλής ποιότητας του ύπνου και της συσχέτισης τους με την πολυνοσηρότητα. ; Introduction: Multimorbidity is defined as the co-existence of two or more chronic conditions. As life expectancy is increasing so does the prevalence of multimorbidity. Identifying the factors associated with the presence of multimorbidity is important. Furthermore, limited evidence exists on the association of Mediterranean Diet or of quality of sleep with the development of multimorbidity in an individual. The aim of this PhD dissertation work was: a) to estimate the prevalence of multimorbidity in Cyprus and identify the most prevalent diseases; b) to evaluate the level of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in the adult general population of Cyprus and investigate its relationship with multimorbidity; and c) to assess the quality of sleep in Cyprus and examine its association with multimorbidity. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study and a stratified sampling procedure was implemented. A representative sample of individuals over 18 years old was surveyed during 2018-2019 in the five government-controlled municipalities of the Republic of Cyprus. Demographic data, dietary information, data on sleep quality, smoking, physical activity, stress, and quality of life, as well as the presence of chronic, clinical, and mental conditions were collected using a validated questionnaire. Diseases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10). Results: The mean age of the n=1140 participants was 41 ± 17 years old, 56% of them were women, 76% lived in an urban area, 54% were married, 64% had completed a higher education, and 50% had a yearly average income in the range €6,500 - €19,500. The age and sex standardized prevalence of multimorbidity was 28.6%. Multimorbidity was associated with age (p<0.01), with the highest rate observed among people aged 65 years old or older (68.9%). Multimorbidity was higher in women than men (28.2% vs. 22.5%, p<0.01) but similar in urban and rural regions (26.4% vs. 23.8%, p=0.40). The most prevalent chronic diseases among people with multimorbidity were hyperlipidemia (44.7%), followed by hypertension (37.5%), gastric reflux (23.9%), and thyroid diseases (22.2%), while the most common combinations of diseases were in the circulatory and endocrine systems. The profile of the multimorbid individual indicated this to be a person at an older age, with a higher BMI, being a current smoker, and having a higher salary. The average Mediterranean Diet score was 15.5 ± 4.0 with men and residents of rural regions being more adherent to the Mediterranean Diet, compared to women and residents of urban regions, respectively (p<0.05). Being in the higher tertile of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet was associated with lower odds of multimorbidity, compared to the lower tertile, and this result was statistically significant even after adjusting for age, sex, smoking habits, and physical activity (adjusted OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.99). The median Pittsburgh Sleep Quality score of the participants was 5 (q1=3, q3=7) with the maximum score being 17. Women, residents of Paphos, and married people had a poorer quality of sleep (p<0.05). Having a better quality of sleep was associated with lower odds of multimorbidity, even after adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors (adjusted OR=2.21, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.16). Conclusions: More than one quarter of the general population of Cyprus has multimorbidity, and this rate is almost 70% among the elderly, with multimorbidity being relatively common even in younger ages too. Adherence to the Mediterranean Diet and better quality of sleep were associated with lower risk of multimorbidity. The results of the study underline the need for prevention strategies and health awareness programs for the entire population, including in relation to dietary and sleeping habits. Prevention programs and public health guidelines in Cyprus and elsewhere should take these results into account and public health guidelines should be developed in regards to the importance of adherence to the Mediterranean Diet and good quality of sleep, highlighting their association with multimorbidity. Further research on multimorbidity should be carried out, including in specific subgroups of the population. ; Completed

Funding text #1 We thank all the hospitals and clinical microbiology laboratories who submitted data and isolates to the reference laboratories as part of their surveillance programmes. We acknowledge the assistance of laboratory personnel who made important contributions to the microbiological data in this study: Wendy Keijzers, Ilse Schuurman, and Agaath Arends in the Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Marie-C?cile Ploy, Carole Grelaud, and all the microbiologists of the French Regional Observatory of Pneumococci Network (Limoges, France); Alice Enefer, Anna Lewis, Karina Micah, Samuel Rose, Chenchal Dhami, and Roger Daniel at the Public Health England Respiratory and Vaccine Preventable Bacteria Unit, London, UK; Xilian Bai, Aiswarya Lekshmi, Jay Lucidarme, Andrew Walker, Lloyd Walsh, and Laura Willerton at the Public Health England Meningococcal Reference Unit in Manchester, UK; Ana Paula Silva de Lemos and Samanta Cristine Grassi Almeida at the .View all Funding text #2 We thank all the hospitals and clinical microbiology laboratories who submitted data and isolates to the reference laboratories as part of their surveillance programmes. We acknowledge the assistance of laboratory personnel who made important contributions to the microbiological data in this study: Wendy Keijzers, Ilse Schuurman, and Agaath Arends in the Netherlands Reference Laboratory for Bacterial Meningitis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Marie-Cécile Ploy, Carole Grelaud, and all the microbiologists of the French Regional Observatory of Pneumococci Network (Limoges, France); Alice Enefer, Anna Lewis, Karina Micah, Samuel Rose, Chenchal Dhami, and Roger Daniel at the Public Health England Respiratory and Vaccine Preventable Bacteria Unit, London, UK; Xilian Bai, Aiswarya Lekshmi, Jay Lucidarme, Andrew Walker, Lloyd Walsh, and Laura Willerton at the Public Health England Meningococcal Reference Unit in Manchester, UK; Ana Paula Silva de Lemos and Samanta Cristine Grassi Almeida at the .View all Funding text #3 The following authors received support for work unrelated to this study: MPGvdL has received grants from Pfizer, Merck, and the Robert Koch Institut; RB has done contract research on behalf of Public Health England for GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur, but received no personal remuneration; MC has received grants from Pfizer; SAC has done contract research on behalf of Public Health England for GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur, but received no personal remuneration; SD has received a grant from Pfizer; SJG did contract research (carriage studies) for vaccine manufacturers (GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer) on behalf of Public Health England, but received no personal remuneration; MH has received grants from Pfizer and the Federal Office of Public Health, and personal fees (for being on an advisory board) from Pfizer and Merck Sharp & Dohme; HH has received grants from Astellas and Pfizer; KAJ has received a grant from Wellcome Trust and personal fees from GlaxoSmithKline; SNL has done contract research for vaccine manufacturers (GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur) on behalf of St. George's University of London, but received no personal remuneration; DJL has received grants from GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer; SM has received a grant from Sanofi Pasteur; CM-A has received grants from Quiastat, Roche, Pfizer, and Genomica, and personal fees from Roche, Pfizer, and Qiagen; LS has received a grant from GlaxoSmithKline; H-CS has received a grant from Pfizer; MI has received non-financial support from GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer, personal fees from Pfizer (speaker fees) and Merck Sharp & Dohme (speaker fees), and grants from Merck Sharp & Dohme; M-KT has received grants from GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Sanofi Pasteur; ASk has received grants and non-financial support from Pfizer, and personal fees from Pfizer, Merck Sharp & Dohme, and Sanofi Pasteur; CLS has received grants from Pfizer and GlaxoSmithKline for investigator-led research; EV has received grants on behalf of her institution (Intercommunal Hospital of Créteil) from Pfizer and Merck Sharp & Dohme; MT has received grants from GlaxoSmithKline and Pfizer; NKF's institution (Public Health England) has received funding for investigator-initiated research from GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Affinivax, but NKF received no personal remuneration; AvG has received a grant from Sanofi Pasteur; NMvS has received a grant from Pfizer, a fee for service paid to their institution from Merck Sharp & Dohme and GlaxoSmithKline, and also has a patent (WO 2013/020090 A3) on vaccine development against Streptococcus pyogenes, unrelated to this study, with royalties paid to University of California San Diego, CA, USA; and MKT has a patent (630133) for a vaccine for serogroup X meningococcus with GlaxoSmithKline. All other authors declare no competing interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license ; Background: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. Findings: 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 837 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By contrast, no significant changes in the incidence of invasive S agalactiae infections were observed. Similar trends were observed across most countries and territories despite differing stringency in COVID-19 control policies. The incidence of reported S pneumoniae infections decreased by 68% at 4 weeks (incidence rate ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·27–0·37]) and 82% at 8 weeks (0·18 [0·14–0·23]) following the week in which significant changes in population movements were recorded. Interpretation: The introduction of COVID-19 containment policies and public information campaigns likely reduced transmission of S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis, leading to a significant reduction in life-threatening invasive diseases in many countries worldwide. Funding: Wellcome Trust (UK), Robert Koch Institute (Germany), Federal Ministry of Health (Germany), Pfizer, Merck, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (Ireland), SpID-Net project (Ireland), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (European Union), Horizon 2020 (European Commission), Ministry of Health (Poland), National Programme of Antibiotic Protection (Poland), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Poland), Agencia de Salut Pública de Catalunya (Spain), Sant Joan de Deu Foundation (Spain), Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Sweden), Swedish Research Council (Sweden), Region Stockholm (Sweden), Federal Office of Public Health of Switzerland (Switzerland), and French Public Health Agency (France). ; Peer reviewed

Prilagodba nacionalnog okvira za dijalog dionika poljoprivrednog sektora o pitanjima Zajedničke poljoprivredne politike prema standardu dijaloga koji se provodi na razini Europske unije važna je zbog kreiranja učinkovitih politika, a posebice sprječavanja netransparentnih političkih odluka. U istraživanju se polazi od pretpostavke kako nacionalni okvir za dijalog dionika o pitanjima ZPP-a nije strukturno prilagođen formalnom standardu EU-a te dionici poljoprivrednog sektora RH nisu koordinirani za dijalog o pitanjima ZPP-a prema protokolu komunikacije i standardu EU-a. Cilj ove disertacije bio je ustanoviti razlike između nacionalnog okvira za dijalog dionika o pitanjima ZPP-a i okvira EU-a. Nadalje, cilj je bio identificirati ključne nacionalne dionike i njihovu ulogu u dijalogu te odrediti mogućnosti prilagodbe nacionalnog dijaloga o pitanjima ZPP-a prema standardu EU-a. Istraživanje je provedeno u pet faza: (1) analiza okvira dijaloga, (2) dubinska analiza dionika poljoprivrednog sektora, (3) analiza stajališta 17 stručnjaka, (4) ispitivanje 31 poljoprivrednika putem fokus grupa (5) testiranje rezultata prethodnih faza istraživanja anketnim ispitivanjem 132 ispitanika. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su kako nacionalni okvir za dijalog dionika o pitanjima ZPP-a nije strukturno prilagođen formalnom standardu EU-a te postoje razlike u dijelu analitičkih, organizacijskih i edukacijskih kapaciteta. Prema ispitanicima, nedostaje razmjena informacija i znanja koja je temelj za koordinaciju javnih politika. Predloženim istraživanjem metodološki su identificirani ključni dionici dijaloga te su znanstveno potvrđeni potreba i mogućnosti prilagodbe nacionalnog okvira dijaloga prema standardiziranom postupku EU-a. Predložena unaprjeđenja moguće je proceduralno primijeniti i na izradu poljoprivrednih politika za druge države koje su u postupcima pregovora za članstvo u EU-u. Istraživanje može poslužiti kao koncept za izradu nacionalnog okvira za transparentan i redovit dijalog u poljoprivrednom sektoru. ; The adjustment of the national stakeholder dialogue on questions of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) according to the EU-level dialogue standard is important for the creation of effective policies, in particular the prevention of non-transparent policy decisions. The research is based on the assumption that the national framework for stakeholder dialogue on CAP is not structurally adjusted to the formal EU standard and that national stakeholders are not sufficiently coordinated for dialogue on CAP questions. The aim of this dissertation was to find the differences between the national framework for stakeholder dialogue on CAP and the EU framework. Furthermore, the aim was to identify key national stakeholders and their role in the dialogue and to identify options for adapting the national dialogue on CAP to the EU standard. The research was conducted in five phases: (1) analysis of the dialogue framework, (2) in-depth analysis of the agricultural stakeholders, (3) analysis of the dialogue from 17 expert standpoints, (4) focus groups with 31 farmers on the dialogue framework and stakeholders, (5) questionnaire for 132 relevant stakeholders in order to test previous phases of the research. The proposed research methodologically identified key stakeholders in the dialogue and scientifically confirmed the need and possibilities to adapt the national dialogue framework to the EU standardized procedure. By analysing the documents, performing individual interviews with experts, examining the four focus groups and conducting a survey, H1 was confirmed, according to which the national framework for stakeholder dialogue on CAP issues is not structurally adjusted to the formal EU standard. The results showed that according to C1, there are differences between the national framework for stakeholder dialogue on CAP issues and the EU framework, especially in terms of analytical, organizational and educational capacities. It was confirmed that although there are a number of formal meetings, e-Consultations do not follow the tempo of the negotiations at EU level as well as standards related to the publicity of data from meetings, the openness of the information system and the time frame for presenting opinions. The general consultations on agricultural policies with public comments are partially covered through the e-Consultation portal. However, abstracts are necessary in order to facilitate the understanding of the documents under discussion, as well as longer time frames. The e-Consultation portal is not a tool that stakeholders can follow yet and additional consultations are needed. Furthermore, the paper confirms H2, in which the stakeholders of the agricultural sector of the Republic of Croatia are not coordinated for dialogue on CAP issues according to the information, communication and dialogue structure protocol. The results of the second phase survey through C2 and the identification of key national stakeholders and their role in the dialogue on CAP issues according to EU standards, the interviewing of experts and farmers through focus groups and the final survey showed that a large number of different associations, sometimes politically coloured, offer weak arguments during debates and institutions perceive them lightly. Also, the selection of stakeholders is not completely transparent. There is no public invitation to participate in the work of the committees and the selection takes place according to decisions of the officials or heads of the Ministry. There is a need for a transparency register, which could determine who is entitled to present views and be invited to meetings according to certain criteria. Associations initiate meetings themselves and they depend on the good will of the leaders. There is a high level of politicization, mistrust and division in large and small, which contributes to weaker cooperation among stakeholders compared to EU policies. According to the respondents, there is a need for an institution or a coordinating body that will profile the interests of farmers towards decision makers. The Croatian Chamber of Agriculture (HPK) is most often mentioned as a key institution that should connect the views of farmers and CAP decision makers. The exchange of information and knowledge, which are the basis for policy coordination, were assessed negatively by experts (third phase), farmers (fourth phase) and stakeholders participating in the negotiations (fifth phase). The component of an analytical approach to planning and joint organized action at the EU level through the linking of the CAP positions of national representatives in the Council, EU representatives and member associations at the EU level is missing. According to C3, the paper identifies the possibilities of adjusting the national dialogue on CAP issues according to the EU standard. The results showed the need for: •establishing a regular dialogue on CAP at the national level modelled on the CDG of the EC, •establishing a transparency register and clear criteria for selecting stakeholders, •producing summaries that will facilitate the understanding of the documents that are discussed and allow for longer time frames for consultations, •increasing the number of representatives of the real agricultural sector in the negotiation process, especially those for whom agriculture is of vital importance, •offering education and accreditation of the stakeholders who participate in CAP negotiations, •strengthening the overall AKIS (synergy of advisory service, science and farmers) system, bringing the CAP closer to stakeholders in the field with the help of an advisory service and local action groups, •public disclosure of data from meetings at the Ministry of Agriculture and feedback on the implementation of the agreed changes, •strengthening the human and financial capacities of associations participating in negotiations at the EU level, •facilitating the translation of documents that are in the process of negotiation and meetings that include civil society stakeholders. The proposed improvements can be procedurally applied to the development of agricultural policies and to other countries that are in negotiations for EU membership. The research can serve as a concept for developing a national framework for transparent and regular dialogue in the agricultural sector.

Background. The unfavorable medical and demographic situation in Ukraine requires an affordable, high-quality and efficient Palliative and Hospice Care (PHC) System substantiation, creation and development that requiring of Primary Health Care (PMC) providers (GPs) and health specialists involvement in PHC, such as Health Facilities (HF) of various Ministries and Departments, different forms of ownership Health Facilities (HF) work coordination. The purpose was to substantiate the optimal PHC System in Ukraine at the PMC level the modern conceptual model. Materials and methods. Medical statistics data, national and international literary sources, results of sociological research, bibliosemantic, statistical and sociological research methods, methods of systemic and structural-functional analysis were used in this work. Results. The optimal PHC System in Ukraine at the PMC level conceptual model is substantiated, in particular, the PHC involved institutions are substantiated: 1) PMC HF; 2) Multi-disciplinary PHC teams; 3) Licensed Pharmacy Facilities; 4) Social Care Facilities. At the PMC level it provides: 1) Identification, organization of status determination and registration of palliative patients (PP); 2) Providing palliative medical care, organization of PP hospitalization to stationary PHC HF, according to testimony; 3) PP and their families members of psychological, social and religious/spiritual support organization; 4) PP and their families members counseling, information and education; 5) Co-ordination and cooperation with a PHC multi-disciplinary team, or PHC HF stationary, health specialist according to the PP's nosology, social care institutions, NGOs, charitable foundations, volunteers. Conclusions. The medical and social analysis of demographic indicators, morbidity and mortality in Ukraine indicates a rapid decline in population and population aging, a high mortality rate from malignant neoplasms and chronic non-communicable diseases (HNCD) severe complications, which determine the high need of the population in PHC and require the affordable, high-quality, and efficient PHC System creation and development. The existing stationary PHC HF network and capacity is extremely inadequate, which results in a signi­ficant need for PHC at the PMC level with the PMC HF specialists involvement. The PHC System conceptual model that based on a patient-family-oriented, multidisciplinary, inter-departmental and multisectoral approach at all health care levels, with an emphasis on PMC, which is consistent with modern international standards and norms, in order to integrate PHC into the Health Care System is substantiated. The proposed optimal PHC System conceptual model is a highly professional component of Health Care System that requires modern high-tech equipment and effective medicines, personnel special training and motivation, a relevant regulatory framework and, of course, adequate the Government of Ukraine, regional and local authorities financial and political support and the interest and support of the whole society. ; Актуальность. Неблагоприятная медико-демографическая ситуация в Украине определяет необходимость обоснования, создания и развития доступной, качественной и эффективной системы паллиативной и хосписной помощи (ПХП), что требует привлечения к оказанию ПХП медицинских работников учреждений здравоохранения (УЗ) первичной медицинской помощи (ПМП) и специализированных УЗ, координации работы учреждений, подчиненных различным министерствам и ведомствам, различных форм собственности. Цель работы: обосновать современную концептуальную модель оптимальной системы оказания ПХП населению Украины на уровне ПМП. Материалы и методы. В работе были использованы данные медицинской статистики, национальные и международные литературные источники, результаты социологического исследования, библиосемантические, статистические и социологические методы исследования, методы системного и структурно-функционального анализа. Результаты. Обоснована концептуальная модель оптимальной системы оказания ПХП на уровне ПМП, в частности, определены учреждения, которых привлекают к оказанию ПХП: 1) УЗ ПМП; 2) Выездные мультидисциплинарные бригады ПХП; 3) Лицензированные аптечные учреждения; 4) Учреждения социальной защиты населения. На уровне ПТП обеспечивается: 1) Выявление, организация определения статуса и учет паллиативных пациентов (ПП); 2) Оказание паллиативной медицинской помощи, организация госпитализации ПП в стационарные УЗ ПХП, по показаниям; 3) Организация психологической, социальной и религиозной/духовной поддержки и сопровождения ПП и членов их семей; 4) Консультирование, информирование и обучение ПП и членов их семей; 5) Координация и сотрудничество с выездной мультидисциплинарной бригадой ПХП или стационарными УЗ ПХП, врачами-специалистами, соответственно нозологии ПП, учреждениями социальной защиты населения, НПО, благотворительными фондами, волонтерами. Выводы. Медико-социальный анализ демографических показателей, заболеваемости и смертности в Украине свидетельствует о быстром сокращении численности и старении населения, высоком уровне смертности от злокачественных новообразований (ЗН) и тяжелых осложнений хронических неинфекционных заболеваний (ХНИЗ), определяющих высокую потребность населения в ПХП и требуют создания и развития доступной, качественной и эффективной системы ПХП. Существующая сеть и мощность стационарных УЗ ПХП – крайне недостаточна, что обусловливает значительную потребность оказания ПХП и паллиативного ухода на уровне ПМП с привлечением медицинских работников УЗ ПМП. Обоснована, разработана и апробирована на уровне отдельных инновационных составляющих концептуальная модель системы ПХП, основой которой является пациент-семья-ориентированный, мультидисциплинарный, межведомственный и межсекторальный подход на всех уровнях оказания медицинской помощи, с акцентом на ПМП, что соответствует современным международным стандартам и нормам, с целью интеграции ПХП в систему здравоохранения, которая обеспечит ее непрерывность и преемственность и обратную связь. Предложенная концептуальная модель оптимальной системы ПХП представляет собой высокопрофессиональную составляющую здравоохранения, требует современного высокотехнологичного оборудования и эффективных лекарственных средств, специальной профессиональной подготовки и мотивации кадров, соответствующей нормативно-правовой базы и, безусловно, надлежащего финансового обеспечения и политической поддержке Правительства Украина, региональных и местных органов власти, заинтересованности и поддержки всего общества. ; Актуальність. Несприятлива медико-демографічна ситуація в Україні вимагає обґрунтування, створення і розвитку доступної, якісної і ефективної системи паліативної та хоспісної допомоги (ПХД), що потребує залучення до надання ПХД медичних працівників закладів охорони здоров'я (ЗОЗ) первинної медичної допомоги (ПМД) і спеціалізованих ЗОЗ, координації роботи закладів і установ, підпорядкованих різним міністерствам і відомствам, різних форм власності. Мета роботи: обґрунтувати сучасну концептуальну модель оптимальної системи надання ПХД населенню України на рівні ПМД. Матеріали та методи. У роботі були використані дані медичної статистики, національні та міжнародні літературні джерела, результати соціологічного дослідження, бібліосемантичні, статистичні і соціологічні методи дослідження, методи системного та структурно-функціонального аналізу. Результати. Обґрунтована концептуальна модель оптимальної системи надання ПХД на рівні ПМД, зокрема визначені заклади, що залучаються до надання ПХД: 1) ЗОЗ ПМД; 2) Виїзні мультидисциплінарні бригади ПХД; 3) Ліцензовані аптечні заклади; 4) Заклади соціального захисту населення. На рівні ПМД забезпечується: 1) Виявлення, організація визначення статусу та облік паліативних пацієнтів (ПП); 2) Надання паліативної медичної допомоги, організація госпіталізації ПП до стаціонарних ЗОЗ ПХД, за показаннями; 3) Організація психологічної, соціальної і релігійної/духовної підтримки і супроводу ПП і членів його сім'ї; 4) Консультування, інформування та навчання ПП і членів його сім'ї; 5) Координація та співпраця з виїзною мультидисциплінарною бригадою ПХД або стаціонарним ЗОЗ ПХД, лікарями-спеціалістами відповідно нозології ПП, закладами соціального захисту населення, НДО, благодійними фондами, волонтерами. Висновки. Медико-соціальний аналіз демографічних показників, захворюваності і смертності в Україні свідчить про швидке скорочення чисельності та постаріння населення, високий рівень смертності від злоякісних новоутворень (ЗН) і тяжких ускладнень хронічних неінфекційних захворювання (ХНІЗ), що визначають високу потребу населення у ПХД та вимагають створення і розвитку доступної, якісної і ефективної системи ПХД. Існуюча мережа та потужність стаціонарних ЗОЗ ПХД – вкрай недостатня, що зумовлює значну потребу надання ПХД та паліативного догляду на рівні ПМД із залученням медичних працівників ЗОЗ ПМД. Обґрунтовано, розроблено та апробовано на рівні окремих інноваційних складових концептуальну модель системи ПХД, основою якої є пацієнт-сім'я-орієнтований, мультидисциплінарний, міжвідомчий і міжсекторальний підхід на усіх рівнях надання медичної допомоги, з акцентом на ПМД, що відповідає сучасним міжнародним стандартам і нормам, з метою інтеграції ПХД в систему охорони здоров'я, що забезпечить безперервність та наступність її надання і зворотний зв'язок. Запропонована концептуальна модель оптимальної системи ПХД являє собою високопрофесійну складову охорони здоров'я, що потребує сучасного високотехнологічного обладнання та ефективних лікарських засобів, спеціальної професійної підготовки і мотивації кадрів, відповідної нормативно-правової бази і, безумовно, належного фінансового забезпечення і політичної підтримки Уряду України, регіональних і місцевих органів влади та зацікавленості і підтримки усього суспільства.

Background There is considerable variability in COVID-19 outcomes amongst younger adults—and some of this variation may be due to genetic predisposition. We characterized the clinical implications of the major genetic risk factor for COVID-19 severity, and its age-dependent effect, using individual-level data in a large international multi-centre consortium. Method The major common COVID-19 genetic risk factor is a chromosome 3 locus, tagged by the marker rs10490770. We combined individual level data for 13,424 COVID-19 positive patients (N=6,689 hospitalized) from 17 cohorts in nine countries to assess the association of this genetic marker with mortality, COVID-19-related complications and laboratory values. We next examined if the magnitude of these associations varied by age and were independent from known clinical COVID-19 risk factors. Findings We found that rs10490770 risk allele carriers experienced an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·2–1·6) and COVID-19 related mortality (HR 1·5, 95%CI 1·3–1·8). Risk allele carriers had increased odds of several COVID-19 complications: severe respiratory failure (odds ratio [OR] 2·0, 95%CI 1·6-2·6), venous thromboembolism (OR 1·7, 95%CI 1·2-2·4), and hepatic injury (OR 1·6, 95%CI 1·2-2·0). Risk allele carriers ≤ 60 years had higher odds of death or severe respiratory failure (OR 2·6, 95%CI 1·8-3·9) compared to those > 60 years OR 1·5 (95%CI 1·3-1·9, interaction p-value=0·04). Amongst individuals ≤ 60 years who died or experienced severe respiratory COVID-19 outcome, we found that 31·8% (95%CI 27·6-36·2) were risk variant carriers, compared to 13·9% (95%CI 12·6-15·2%) of those not experiencing these outcomes. Prediction of death or severe respiratory failure among those ≤ 60 years improved when including the risk allele (AUC 0·82 vs 0·84, p=0·016) and the prediction ability of rs10490770 risk allele was similar to, or better than, most established clinical risk factors. Interpretation The major common COVID-19 risk locus on chromosome 3 is associated with increased risks of morbidity and mortality—and these are more pronounced amongst individuals ≤ 60 years. The effect on COVID-19 severity was similar to, or larger than most established risk factors, suggesting potential implications for clinical risk management. ; AG has received support by NordForsk Nordic Trial Alliance (NTA) grant, by Academy of Finland Fellow grant N. 323116 and the Academy of Finland for PREDICT consortium N. 340541. The Richards research group is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) (365825 and 409511), the Lady Davis Institute of the Jewish General Hospital, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI), the NIH Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Genome Quebec, the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Quebec Sante (FRQS). TN is supported by a research fellowship of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science for Young Scientists. GBL is supported by a CIHR scholarship and a joint FRQS and Quebec Ministry of Health and Social Services scholarship. JBR is supported by an FRQS Clinical Research Scholarship. Support from Calcul Quebec and Compute Canada is acknowledged. TwinsUK is funded by the Welcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, the European Union, the National Institute for Health Research-funded BioResource and the Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St. Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. The Biobanque Quebec COVID19 is funded by FRQS, Genome Quebec and the Public Health Agency of Canada, the McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity and the Fonds de Recherche Quebec Sante. These funding agencies had no role in the design, implementation or interpretation of this study. The COVID19-Host(a)ge study received infrastructure support from the DFG Cluster of Excellence 2167 Precision Medicine in Chronic Inflammation (PMI) (DFG Grant: EXC2167). The COVID19-Host(a)ge study was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the framework of the Computational Life Sciences funding concept (CompLS grant 031L0165). Genotyping in COVID19-Host(a)ge was supported by a philantropic donation from Stein Erik Hagen. The COVID GWAs, Premed COVID-19 study (COVID19-Host(a)ge_3) was supported by Grupo de Trabajo en Medicina Personalizada contra el COVID-19 de Andalucia and also by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CIBERehd and CIBERER). Funding comes from COVID-19-GWAS, COVID-PREMED initiatives. Both of them are supported by Consejeria de Salud y Familias of the Andalusian Government. DMM is currently funded by the the Andalussian government (Proyectos Estrategicos-Fondos Feder PE-0451-2018). The Columbia University Biobank was supported by Columbia University and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, NIH, through Grant Number UL1TR001873. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the NIH or Columbia University. The SPGRX study was supported by the Consejeria de Economia, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad #CV20-10150. The GEN-COVID study was funded by: the MIUR grant Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2020 to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies University of Siena, Italy; the Intesa San Paolo 2020 charity fund dedicated to the project NB/2020/0119; and philanthropic donations to the Department of Medical Biotechnologies, University of Siena for the COVID-19 host genetics research project (D.L n.18 of March 17, 2020). Part of this research project is also funded by Tuscany Region Bando Ricerca COVID-19 Toscana grant to the Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria Senese (CUP I49C20000280002). Authors are grateful to: the CINECA consortium for providing computational resources; the Network for Italian Genomes (NIG) (http://www.nig.cineca.it) for its support; the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative (https://www.covid19hg.org/); the Genetic Biobank of Siena, member of BBMRI-IT, Telethon Network of Genetic Biobanks (project no. GTB18001), EuroBioBank, and RD-Connect, for managing specimens. Genetics against coronavirus (GENIUS), Humanitas University (COVID19-Host(a)ge_4) was supported by Ricerca Corrente (Italian Ministry of Health), intramural funding (Fondazione Humanitas per la Ricerca). The generous contribution of Banca Intesa San Paolo and of the Dolce&Gabbana Fashion Firm is gratefully acknowledged. Data acquisition and sample processing was supported by COVID-19 Biobank, Fondazione IRCCS Ca Granda Milano; LV group was supported by MyFirst Grant AIRC n.16888, Ricerca Finalizzata Ministero della Salute RF-2016-02364358, Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, the European Union (EU) Programme Horizon 2020 (under grant agreement No. 777377) for the project LITMUS- Liver Investigation: Testing Marker Utility in Steatohepatitis, Programme Photonics under grant agreement 101016726 for the project REVEAL: Neuronal microscopy for cell behavioural examination and manipulation, Fondazione Patrimonio Ca' Granda Liver Bible PR-0361. DP was supported by Ricerca corrente Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, CV PREVITAL Strategie di prevenzione primaria nella popolazione Italiana Ministero della Salute, and Associazione Italiana per la Prevenzione dell'Epatite Virale (COPEV). Genetic modifiers for COVID-19 related illness (BeLCovid_1) was supported by the Fonds Erasme. The Host genetics and immune response in SARS-Cov-2 infection (BelCovid_2) study was supported by grants from Fondation Leon Fredericq and from Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS). The INMUNGEN-CoV2 study was funded by the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas. KUL is supported by the German Research Foundation (LU 1944/3-1) SweCovid is funded by the SciLifeLab/KAW national COVID-19 research program project grant to Michael Hultstrom (KAW 2020.0182) and the Swedish Research Council to Robert Frithiof (2014-02569 and 2014-07606). HZ is supported by Jeansson Stiftelser, Magnus Bergvalls Stiftelse. The COMRI cohort is funded by Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. Genotyping for the COMRI cohort was performed and funded by the Genotyping Laboratory of Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland FIMM Technology Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland. ; No

Full list of authors: Baqui, P. O.; Marra, V.; Casarini, L.; Angulo, R.; Díaz-García, L. A.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Lopes, P. A. A.; López-Sanjuan, C.; Muniesa, D.; Placco, V. M.; Quartin, M.; Queiroz, C.; Sobral, D.; Solano, E.; Tempel, E.; Varela, J.; Vílchez, J. M.; Abramo, R.; Alcaniz, J.; Benitez, N. Bonoli, S.; Carneiro, S.; Cenarro, A. J.; Cristóbal-Hornillos, D.; de Amorim, A. L.; de Oliveira, C. M.; Dupke, R.; Ederoclite, A.; González Delgado, R. M.; Marín-Franch, A.; Moles, M.; Vázquez Ramió, H.; Sodré, L.; Taylor, K. ; Context. Future astrophysical surveys such as J-PAS will produce very large datasets, the so-called "big data", which will require the deployment of accurate and efficient machine-learning (ML) methods. In this work, we analyze the miniJPAS survey, which observed about similar to 1 deg(2) of the AEGIS field with 56 narrow-band filters and 4 ugri broad-band filters. The miniJPAS primary catalog contains approximately 64 000 objects in the r detection band (mag(AB)less than or similar to 24), with forced-photometry in all other filters.Aims. We discuss the classification of miniJPAS sources into extended (galaxies) and point-like (e.g., stars) objects, which is a step required for the subsequent scientific analyses. We aim at developing an ML classifier that is complementary to traditional tools that are based on explicit modeling. In particular, our goal is to release a value-added catalog with our best classification.Methods. In order to train and test our classifiers, we cross-matched the miniJPAS dataset with SDSS and HSC-SSP data, whose classification is trustworthy within the intervals 15 <= r <= 20 and 18.5 <= r <= 23.5, respectively. We trained and tested six different ML algorithms on the two cross-matched catalogs: K-nearest neighbors, decision trees, random forest (RF), artificial neural networks, extremely randomized trees (ERT), and an ensemble classifier. This last is a hybrid algorithm that combines artificial neural networks and RF with the J-PAS stellar and galactic loci classifier. As input for the ML algorithms we used the magnitudes from the 60 filters together with their errors, with and without the morphological parameters. We also used the mean point spread function in the r detection band for each pointing.Results. We find that the RF and ERT algorithms perform best in all scenarios. When the full magnitude range of 15 <= r <= 23.5 is analyzed, we find an area under the curve AUC=0.957 with RF when photometric information alone is used, and AUC=0.986 with ERT when photometric and morphological information is used together. When morphological parameters are used, the full width at half maximum is the most important feature. When photometric information is used alone, we observe that broad bands are not necessarily more important than narrow bands, and errors (the width of the distribution) are as important as the measurements (central value of the distribution). In other words, it is apparently important to fully characterize the measurement.Conclusions. ML algorithms can compete with traditional star and galaxy classifiers; they outperform the latter at fainter magnitudes (r greater than or similar to 21). We use our best classifiers, with and without morphology, in order to produce a value-added catalog. © ESO 2021 ; POB thanks, for financial support, the Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001. VM thanks CNPq (Brazil) and FAPES (Brazil) for partial financial support. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 888258. LADG is supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of Taiwan (grant MOST 106-2628-M-001-003-MY3), and by the Academia Sinica (grant AS-IA-107-M01). ES has been partly supported by the Spanish State Research Agency (AEI) Projects AYA2017-84089 and MDM-2017-0737 at Centro de Astrobiologia (CSIC-INTA), Unidad de Excelencia Maria de Maeztu. MQ is supported by the Brazilian research agencies CNPq and FAPERJ. RGD acknowledges financial support from the State Agency for Research of the Spanish MCIU through the "Center of Excellence Severo Ochoa" award to the Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia (SEV-2017-0709) and through the projects AyA2016-77846-P and PID2019-109067GB-100. LS acknowledges support from Brazilian agencies CNPq (grant 304819/2017-4) and FAPESP (grant 2012/00800-4). This work made use of the Virgo Cluster at Cosmo-ufes/UFES, which is funded by FAPES and administrated by Renan Alves de Oliveira. Based on observations made with the JST/T250 telescope and PathFinder camera for the miniJPAS project at the Observatorio Astrofisico de Javalambre (OAJ), in Teruel, owned, managed, and operated by the Centro de Estudios de Fisica del Cosmos de Aragon (CEFCA). We acknowledge the OAJ Data Processing and Archiving Unit (UPAD) for reducing and calibrating the OAJ data used in this work. Funding for OAJ, UPAD, and CEFCA has been provided by the Governments of Spain and Aragon through the Fondo de Inversiones de Teruel; the Aragon Government through the Research Groups E96, E103, and E16_17R; the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (MCIU/AEI/FEDER, UE) with grant PGC2018-097585-B-C21; the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO/FEDER, UE) under AYA2015-66211-C2-1-P, AYA2015-66211-C2-2, AYA2012-30789, and ICTS-2009-14; and European FEDER funding (FCDD10-4E-867, FCDD13-4E2685). Based on data from ALHAMBRA Data Access Service the at CAB (CSIC-INTA). Funding for the DEEP2 Galaxy Redshift Survey has been provided by NSF grants AST-95-09298, AST-0071048, AST-0507428, and AST0507483 as well as NASA LTSA grant NNG04GC89G. The Hyper SuprimeCam (HSC) collaboration includes the astronomical communities of Japan and Taiwan, and Princeton University. The HSC instrumentation and software were developed by the National Astronomical Observatory of Japan (NAOJ), the Kavli Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe (Kavli IPMU), the University of Tokyo, the High Energy Accelerator Research Organization (KEK), the Academia Sinica Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics in Taiwan (ASIAA), and Princeton University. Funding was contributed by the FIRST program from the Japanese Cabinet O ffice, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), the Toray Science Foundation, NAOJ, Kavli IPMU, KEK, ASIAA, and Princeton University. This paper makes use of software developed for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. We thank the LSST Project for making their code available as free software at dm.lsst.org. This paper is based [in part] on data collected at the Subaru Telescope and retrieved from the HSC data archive system, which is operated by Subaru Telescope and Astronomy Data Center (ADC) at National Astronomical Observatory of Japan. Dpart carried out with the cooperation of Center for Computational Astrophysics (CfCA), National Astronomical Observatory of Japan. Funding for SDSS-III has been provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Participating Institutions, the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. The SDSS-III website is sdss3.org. SDSS-III is managed by the Astrophysical Research Consortium for the Participating Institutions of the SDSS-III Collaboration including the University of Arizona, the Brazilian Participation Group, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Florida, the French Participation Group, the German Participation Group, Harvard University, the Instituto de Astrofisica de Canarias, the Michigan State/Notre Dame/JINA Participation Group, Johns Hopkins University, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Max Planck Institute for Astrophysics, Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, New Mexico State University, New York University, Ohio State University, Pennsylvania State University, University of Portsmouth, Princeton University, the Spanish Participation Group, University of Tokyo, University of Utah, Vanderbilt University, University of Virginia, University of Washington, and Yale University. ; Peer reviewed

Relevance of tresearch topic. In the context of the transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development, investment and innovation activities should be aimed at solving these problems. Investment and innovation should not only lead to economic growth, but also to sustainability. Therefore, the study of the problems of developing organizational and economic mechanisms to activate the financing of investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises in the context of transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development is relevant and significant. Formulation of the problem. The models and methods of stimulating the investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises in the conditions of the so-called "systemic crisis", which is manifested not only in the system of economic indicators, but also in other elements of the functioning of the state, do not yet have adequate justification. It is necessary to develop scientific and practical recommendations on directions of stimulating financing of investment and innovative activity of industrial enterprises in the conditions of transition of national economy to the model of sustainable development. Analysis of recent research and publications. Some problems of formation and realization of organizational and economic mechanisms of activation of investment and innovative activity of industrial enterprises, as well as the transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development are covered in scientific works. Some provisions of this problem are covered in scientific papers on structural modernization of the economy, support for economic growth, innovative society, technological modernization of the economy, etc. Selection of unexplored parts of the general problem. In the current context, it is necessary to carry out additional research on perspective mechanisms for financing investment and innovation activities in the context of the transition of the national economy to the sustainable development model. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to develop scientifically sound recommendations for intensifying the financing of investment and innovation activities of industrial enterprises in the context of the transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development. Method or methodology for conducting research. Methodological basis of the study were general scientific and special methods of knowledge of economic phenomena and processes. In formulating concepts and categories, the method of abstraction was used; methods of analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction; methods of retrospective analysis; logic-analytical method; statistical methods; method of system analysis; economic-statistical and forecast-analytical methods. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The organization of the national economy on the principles of sustainable development implies profound structural changes in management, implementation of innovative approaches in all spheres of economic, social and political life of society. For Ukraine the pressing issue of transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development is to increase the efficiency of formation and implementation of the state investment and innovation policy. In Ukraine, the level of investment does not ensure the expanded reproduction of fixed assets. Innovation activity in the Ukrainian industry remains traditionally low. In Ukraine, the aging of fixed assets is constantly observed, now the level of deterioration of fixed assets on the average in the economy exceeds 50%. In today's economy, a key element in securing investment through the use of attracted sources is the financial market system. Creation of new and modernization of existing fixed assets is the main direction of investment activity of industrial enterprises. Therefore, the efficiency of the entire investment process is determined not only by the volume and structure of both the sources and the directions of investments, but also by their economic return, which is manifested only as a result of the use of the resulting investment projects. During the crisis in Ukraine, there was a radical change in the structure of the economy in favor of the low-tech and raw material industries, which still remains. In the world markets, Ukraine is represented mainly by raw materials and semi-finished products. The implementation of the sustainable development model is possible on the basis of effective implementation of the state policy of stimulating the financing of investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises. The use of financial instruments to stimulate investment and innovation activities should provide assistance in solving macroeconomic problems: growth of gross domestic product; improving the competitiveness of the economy; supporting the development of high-tech industries; further formation of institutions of the national innovation system; promotion of high-tech exports; introduction of resource-saving technologies. The directions of further improvement of the state policy aimed at the development of mechanisms for financing the investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises (including in terms of modernization of the financial system and financial markets) are proposed. It is advisable to take measures to optimize the fiscal (fiscal) policy, which in the conditions of post-crisis development will act as the main stimulator of investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises. A list of appropriate measures is provided. In the context of the implementation of the strategy of transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development, the state investment and innovation should provide an orientation to stimulate the so-called "social investment". Key directions of social investment realization: creation of social climate in the country, region; formation of balanced social infrastructure of the country, region, enterprise; support for public health and the level of environmental safety; raising the level of education of the population; promoting the spiritual development of the nation; forming a system of mentoring at the enterprise and ensuring the change of professional generations; development and effective functioning of the labor market. It is advisable to modernize the mechanism of public-private partnership organization. It is necessary to adapt to the best international experience of national IPR instruments. All government programs implemented within the framework of state investment and innovation activities should be cost-effective, and therefore their results should be subject to economic analysis. The field of application of results. The results obtained can be used in the process of formation and implementation of the state investment and innovation policy, as well as in the process of implementation of the strategy for support of sustainable development. Conclusions according to the article. For Ukraine the pressing issue of transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development is to increase the efficiency of formation and implementation of the state policy of stimulating the financing of investment and innovation activities. This is especially relevant for the industrial sector, as the fixed assets of the industry have a high level of wear. Unfortunately, in Ukraine the efficiency of the implementation of the state investment and innovation policy is insufficient. It is possible to solve the problem of increasing the efficiency of formation and implementation of state support mechanisms for financing the investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises by improving the appropriate organizational, economic and financial instruments. This task can be solved, in particular, by increasing the efficiency of the formation and implementation of relevant state target programs. The directions of improvement of the state policy aimed at development of mechanisms of financing of investment and innovative activity of industrial enterprises are highlighted, in particular: solving of strategic tasks of development of banking sector and strengthening of its orientation on long-term crediting of industrial enterprises; realization of investment and innovation requests of the national economy; - creation of the State Development Bank (State Investment Bank); support for further development of the stock market and its infrastructure; bringing investment legislation to international standards; expanding the range of financial instruments available to investors. The list of measures to optimize the fiscal policy, which in the conditions of post-crisis development will be the main stimulator of investment and innovation activity of industrial enterprises, is presented. All government programs implemented within the framework of state investment and innovation activities should be cost effective. In the context of the implementation of the strategy of transition of the national economy to the model of sustainable development, it is advisable to take measures to expand the so-called "social investment".