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1 Historical Introduction -- I Clinical Background -- 2 The Syndromes of Generalized Epilepsy -- 3 Unanswered Clinical Questions in Generalized Epilepsy -- 4 The Relationship Between Sleep Spindles and Spike-and-Wave Bursts in Human Epilepsy -- II Fundamental Cellular and Neurotransmitter Mechanisms -- 5 Membrane Properties of Cat Betz Cells Studied In Vitro -- 6 Changes in Extracellular Ions Associated with Epileptiform Discharges -- 7 Role of Neurotransmitters in the Genesis of Epileptiform Discharges -- 8 Excitant Amino Acids in Epilepsy -- 9 Possible Epileptogenic Consequences of Misused GABAergic Relationships -- 10 Anticonvulsant Effects of Intracortical Chronic Infusion of GABA in Generalized Epilepsy -- 11 In Vitro Electrophysiology of a Genetic Model of Generalized Epilepsy -- III Thalamic and Cortical Mechanisms in Absence Attacks -- 12 Spindling, Incremental Thalamocortical Responses, and Spike-Wave Epilepsy -- 13 Physiology of Thalamic Relay Neurons: Properties of Calcium Currents Involved in Burst-Firing -- 14 Thalamo-Cortical Relationships in Generalized Epilepsy with Bilaterally Synchronous Spike-and-Wave Discharge -- 15 Focal and Generalized Epileptiform Activity in the Cortex: In Search of Differences in Synaptic Mechanisms, Ionic Movements, and Long-Lasting Changes in Neuronal Excitability -- 16 Pharmacology of the Inhibitory Systems in Primary Generalized Epilepsy of "Petit Mal" Type -- 17 Spontaneous Spike-and-Wave Discharges in Wistar Rats: A Model of Genetic Generalized Conconvulsive Epilepsy -- 18 Behavioral and Electrophysiological Studies of Absence Epilepsy -- IV Photosensitivity -- 19 Focal Discharges in Photosensitive Generalized Epilepsy -- 20 Photosensitive Epilepsy of the Baboon: A Generalized Epilepsy with a Motor Cortical Origin -- 21 Role of Dopamine in Generalized Photosensitive Epilepsy: Electroencephalographic and Biochemical Aspects -- 22 Inferences Regarding the Visual Precipitation of Seizures, Eye Strain, and Headaches -- V Generalized Convulsive Seizures -- 23 Animal Models of Generalized Convulsive Seizures: Some Neuroanatomical Differentiation of Seizure Types -- 24 Mechanisms Underlying Generalized Tonic-Clonic Seizures in the Rat: Functional Significance of Calcium Ions -- 25 Substantia Nigra-Mediated Control of Generalized Seizures -- 26 Mesencephalic Structures and Tonic-Clonic Generalized Seizures -- VI Metabolic and Neurochemical Studies -- 27 Metabolic Studies of Generalized Epilepsy -- 28 PET Studies of Generalized Epilepsy Induced by Convulsant Drugs Acting at the GABA-Benzodiazepine Receptor Complex -- 29 Postictal Compensatory Changes in Cortical Alpha-1 Receptors and Adrenergic-Mediated Phosphoinositol Metabolism Following Repeated Electroconvulsive Seizures in Rats -- VII Pharmacological Agents and Generalized Seizures -- 30 Cellular Actions of Petit Mal Anticonvulsants: Implication of Thalamic Low-Threshold Calcium Current in Generation of Spike-Wave Discharge -- 31 Mechanisms of Anticonvulsant Action of Valproate: An Overview and Perspective -- 32 Sedative Drug Withdrawal Seizures: Cellular Electrophysiological Mechanisms.

Anything that can be automated, will be. The "magic" that digital technology has brought us -- self-driving cars, Bitcoin, high frequency trading, the internet of things, social networking, mass surveillance, the 2009 housing bubble -- has not been considered from an ideological perspective. The Critique of Digital Capitalism identifies how digital technology has captured contemporary society in a reification of capitalist priorities, and also describes digital capitalism as an ideologically "invisible" framework that is realized in technology. Written as a series of articles between 2003 and 2015, the book provides a broad critical scope for understanding the inherent demands of capitalist protocols for expansion without constraint (regardless of social, legal or ethical limits) that are increasingly being realized as autonomous systems that are no longer dependent on human labor or oversight and implemented without social discussion of their impacts. The digital illusion of infinite resources, infinite production, and no costs appears as an "end to scarcity," whereby digital production supposedly eliminates costs and makes everything equally available to everyone. This fantasy of production without consumption hides the physical costs and real-world impacts of these technologies. The critique introduced in this book develops from basic questions about how digital technologies directly change the structure of society: why is "Digital Rights Management" not only the dominant "solution" for distributing digital information, but also the only option being considered? During the burst of the "Housing Bubble" burst 2009, why were the immaterial commodities being traded of primary concern, but the actual physical assets and the impacts on the people living in them generally ignored? How do surveillance (pervasive monitoring) and agnotology (culturally induced ignorance or doubt, particularly the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data) coincide as mutually reinforcing technologies of control and restraint? If technology makes the assumptions of its society manifest as instrumentality -- then what ideology is being realized in the form of the digital computer? This final question animates the critical framework this analysis proposes. Digital capitalism is a dramatically new configuration of the historical dynamics of production, labor and consumption that results in a new variant of historical capitalism. This contemporary, globalized network of production and distribution depends on digital capitalism's refusal of established social restraints: existing laws are an impediment to the transcendent aspects of digital technology. Its utopian claims mask its authoritarian result: the superficial "objectivity" of computer systems are supposed to replace established protections with machinic function -- the uniform imposition of whatever ideology informs the design. However, machines are never impartial: they reify the ideologies they are built to enact. The critical analysis of capitalist ideologies as they become digital is essential to challenging this process. Contesting their domination depends on theoretical analysis. This critique challenges received ideas about the relationship between labor, commodity production and value, in the process demonstrating how the historical Marxist analysis depends on assumptions that are no longer valid. This book therefore provides a unique, critical toolset for the analysis of digital capitalist hegemonics.

Tropical coral reefs, one of the world's oldest ecosystems which support some of the highest levels of biodiversity on the planet, are currently facing an unprecedented ecological crisis during this massive human-activity-induced period of extinction. Hence, tropical reefs symbolically stand for the destructive effects of human activities on nature [4], [5]. Artificial reefs are excellent examples of how architectural design can be combined with ecosystem regeneration [6], [7], [8]. However, to work at the interface between the artificial and the complex and temporal nature of natural systems presents a challenge, i.a. in respect to the B-rep modelling legacy of computational modelling. The presented doctorate investigates strategies on how to apply digital practice to realise what is an essential bulwark to retain reefs in impossibly challenging times. Beyond the main question of integrating computational modelling and high precision monitoring strategies in artificial coral reef design, this doctorate explores techniques, methods, and linking frameworks to support future research and practice in ecology led design contexts. Considering the many existing approaches for artificial coral reefs design, one finds they often fall short in precisely understanding the relationships between architectural and ecological aspects (e.g. how a surface design and material composition can foster coral larvae settlement, or structural three-dimensionality enhance biodiversity) and lack an integrated underwater (UW) monitoring process. Such a process is necessary in order to gather knowledge about the ecosystem and make it available for design, and to learn whether artificial structures contribute to reef regeneration or rather harm the coral reef ecosystem. For the research, empirical experimental methods were applied: Algorithmic coral reef design, high precision UW monitoring, computational modelling and simulation, and validated through parallel real-world physical experimentation – two Artificial Reef Prototypes (ARPs) in Gili Trawangan, Indonesia (2012–today). Multiple discrete methods and sub techniques were developed in seventeen computational experiments and applied in a way in which many are cross valid and integrated in an overall framework that is offered as a significant contribution to the field. Other main contributions include the Ecosystem-aware design approach, Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for coral reef design, algorithmic design and fabrication of Biorock cathodes, new high precision UW monitoring strategies, long-term real-world constructed experiments, new digital analysis methods and two new front-end web-based tools for reef design and monitoring reefs. The methodological framework is a finding of the research that has many technical components that were tested and combined in this way for the very first time. In summary, the thesis responds to the urgency and relevance in preserving marine species in tropical reefs during this massive extinction period by offering a differentiated approach towards artificial coral reefs – demonstrating the feasibility of digitally designing such 'living architecture' according to multiple context and performance parameters. It also provides an in-depth critical discussion of computational design and architecture in the context of ecosystem regeneration and Planetary Thinking. In that respect, the thesis functions as both theoretical and practical background for computational design, ecology and marine conservation – not only to foster the design of artificial coral reefs technically but also to provide essential criteria and techniques for conceiving them.

1: Thermodynamics -- Thermodynamics and Engineering Needs -- Statistics of Surface Contact Distributions -- Polymer Melt and Glass: Thermodynamic and Dynamic Aspects -- A Fresh Look at Solutions of Polymer Mixtures -- Polymer-Polymer Interactions and Phase Diagrams of Compatible Polyblends by Gas-Chromatography -- Application of the Mean-Field Lattice-Gas Model to Partially-Miscible Polymer Systems -- Liquid-Liquid Phase Separation in Mixtures of Statistical Copolymers -- Characterization of Industrial Polymers and Polymer Mixtures by Turbidimetric Measurements at the Lower Critical Solution Temperature -- II: Characterization/Solution Behaviour -- Characterization of Copolymers: Chromatographic Cross-Fractionation Analysis of Styrene-Acrylonitrile Copolymers -- CPF: A New Method for Large Scale Fractionation -- Flow Birefringence of Associations of Polymers in Solution -- Theoretical Calculation of Diffusion Coefficient and Viscosity of Star Polymers in Solution -- A Photon Correlation Spectroscopy Investigation of Precipitation Polymerization in Liquid Vinyl Chloride -- III: Blends -- The Role of Specific Interactions in Polymer Miscibility -- Relation of Interdiffusion and Self-Diffusion in Polymer Mixtures -- Crystallization and Melting Studies on Poly(ethylene oxide)/Poly(methyl methacrylate) Mixtures -- Specific Intermolecular Interactions in Polymer Blends -- Thermal and Morphological Analysis of Poly(?-caprolactam)—Poly(etherester) Mixtures -- Isochrone Viscoelastic Functions via Activation Energy of Flow: Charge Transfer Compatibilized Polyblends -- Modification of Thermosetting Resins by Thermoplastics -- The Toughness Behavior of Emulsion ABS: Effect of Rubber Concentration and Acrylonitrile Content on the Deformation Modes -- IV: Networks -- Thermodynamics of Casein Gels and the Universality of Network Theories -- Crosslinking Theory Applied to Industrially Important Polymers -- Reversible and Irreversible Deformation of Van der Waals Networks -- Photopolymerization of Diacrylates -- Simulation Model for Densely Cross-Linked Networks Formed by Chain-Reactions -- Nonlinear Viscoelasticity of EPDM Networks -- Some Comments on the Thermodynamics of Swelling -- Thermoreversible Gelation of Vinyl Polymers -- Static and Dynamic Lightscattering of Thermoreversible Gelling iota-Carrageenan -- Effects of Poly(acrylamide) on the Solution and Gel Properties of Water-Gelatin System -- Compatibility and Viscoelasticity of Mixed Biopolymer Gels -- Halato-Telechelic Polymers as Models of Ion-Containing Polymers and Thermoreversible Polymer Networks -- Ion-Containing Networks: Structural Modifications Induced by Lithium Ions -- Ion-Containing Networks: Recent Results Concerning Transport Properties -- V: Diffusion/Barrier Properties -- Diffusion of Gases and Liquids in Glassy and Semi-Crystalline Polymers -- Transport Regulated Electrochemical Reactions in Polyimide Films -- Processing of Barrier Film by Coextrusion -- VI: Chain Dynamics -- Single-Chain Dynamics in Polymer Characterization -- Non-Ideal Statistics and Polymer Dynamics -- Computation and Display of Polymer Chain Behaviour -- Deuteron-NMR Studies of Molecular Motions in Solid Polymers -- A Two-Dimensional NMR Study of Very Slow Molecular Motions in Polymers -- Transitions and Mobile Phases by NMR Normal Alkanes and Polyethylene -- Morphology and Chain Dynamics of Polymers as Reflected from Polymer-Dye Interactions -- Emission Spectroscopy and the Molecular Mobility of Polyepoxide Networks -- Mobility of Sidegroups in Polydimethylsiloxane -- Glass Transitions in Unsymmetrically Substituted Siloxanes -- VII: Processing/Rheology -- From Molecular Models to the Solution of Flow Problems -- Transient-Network Theories: New Developments and Applications -- Rheological Properties of a LDPE Melt in Transient Uniaxial Elongational Flow, Described with a Special Type of Constitutive Equation -- Physical Background of Mould Filling With and Without Crystallization -- On the Mathematical Modelling of the Injection Moulding Process -- Mixing Processes in Polymer Processing -- Blending of Incompatible Polymers -- Polymer Reactions During Melt-Processing -- Assessing Rubber Processing Aids Effectiveness -- Plastics Processing -- VIII: Structure and Morphology -- Some Facets of Order in Crystalline Polymers as Revealed by Polyethylene -- Investigation of the Crystallization Process of Polymers by Means of Neutron Scattering -- Lamellar Organization in Polymer Spherulites -- Considerations on the Crystallization with Chain Folding in Polymers -- Chain Mobility in Phase Transformations of Inorganic Polymers -- Ultra-Drawing of High-Molecular-Weight Polyethylene Cast from Solution. IV. Effect of Annealing/Re-crystallization -- Microhardness of Semicrystalline Polymers -- Model Calculations for WAXS Profiles from the Polymer Crystalline Particle Size Distribution -- Infrared Spectroscopy on PET Yarns -- Interaction Between Crystallization and Orientation -- Neutron Scattering of Poly(ethylene terephthalate) -- The Similarity Between Cellulose and Aramid Fibres -- Crystalline Order in Nylon 4,6 -- Pulsed EPR Study of the Trapping Process of Radicals in Polyethylene -- Analysis of Filled Rubbers Using SAXS -- SAXS Studies of Semi-Crystalline Polymer Blends Using Synchrotron Radiation -- Ultra-Drawing of Polypropylene -- Spinning of Fibers from Cellulose Solutions in Amine Oxides -- IX: New Developments -- Future Trends in Polymer Chemistry -- Recent Investigations of Interpenetrating Polymer Networks -- Polymers with Metal-like Conductivity: Structure, Properties and Applications -- The Mechanical Properties of Polypyrrole Plates -- High Modulus Flexible Polymers -- Radiation Treatment of Polymers -- High Precision Replication of Laservision Video Discs Using UV-Curable Coatings -- Fast Curing Low-Modulus Coatings for High-Strength Optical Fibres -- Replication of High Precision Aspherical Lenses Using UV-Curable Coatings.

I: Physics and Chemistry of Porphyrins and Related Compounds -- Excited State Properties of Haematoporphyrin -- Fluorescence Properties of HpD and its Components -- The Structure of the Active Component of Hematoporphyrin Derivative -- Photophysical and Photosensitizing Properties of Photofrin II -- On the Purification of Hematoporphyrin IX and its Acetylated Derivatives -- Photosensitizing Properties of Porphyrin in Model Cell Systems -- Photosensitizing Properties of Free and Bound Uroporphyrin I -- Chemical and Biological Studies on Haematoporphyrin Derivative: An Unexpected Photosensitization in Brain -- A Chromatographic Study of Hematoporphyrin Derivatives -- Protection by Carotenoids from Singlet Oxygen Photoproduced by Porphyrins -- Effect of He-Ne Laser on Human Erythrocytes Incubated with Hematoporphyrin Derivative and Bonellin: Comparative Study -- Survey of Potential PRT Dyes and their Spectroscopic Properties -- II: Interactions of Porphyrins with Model Systems and Cells -- Fluorescence of Porphyrins in Cells -- Hematoporphyrin Derivative: Fluorometric Studies in Solution and Cells -- Time-Resolved Laser Fluorescence and Photobleaching of Single Cells after Photosensitization with Hematoporphyrin Derivative (HpD) -- Effects of Hpd and Laser on Transformed and Corresponding Normal Cultured Cells: Differential Cytotoxicity as an in Vitro Model for Tumor Photochemotherapy -- Interaction of Free and Liposome-Bound Porphyrins with Normal and Malignant Cells: Biochemical and Photosensitization Studies in Vitro and in Vivo -- Photodynamic Inactivation of L929 Cells after Treatment with Hematoporphyrin Derivative -- Bacterial and Yeast Cells as Models for Studying Hematoporphyrin Photosensitization -- Cholesterol Impregnation into Erythroleukemia Cell Membrane Induces Resistance to Hematoporphyrin Photodynamic Effect -- Photodynamic Effect of the He-Ne Laser with HpD on the Ultrastructure of Rhabdomyosarcoma Cell -- III: Studies on Experimental and Spontaneous Animal Tumors -- Hematoporphyrin Derivative Phototherapy in Experimental Oncology -- Photoradiation Therapy (PRT) of Lewis Lung Carcinoma in B6D2 Mice, Dosimetry Considerations -- Study of Irradiation Parameters in HpD Phototherapy of MS-2 Tumor Model -- Experimental ENU Induced Brain Tumors with HpD and Dye Laser Light -- Studies with Hematoporphyrin Derivative in Transplantable Urothelial Tumors -- Time Dependence of 3 H Hematoporphyrin Derivative Distribution in the Digestive Tract of the Rat -- Nd YAG Destruction of Tumor Sensitized or Non Sensitized by HpD -- HpD Phototherapy on Spontaneous Tumors in Dog and Cat -- IV: Light Dosimetry and Instrumentation for Tumor Diagnosis and Phototherapy -- Thermal and Optical Dosimetry for Photoradiation Therapy of Malignant Tumors -- Photophysics and Dosimetry of Photoradiation Therapy -- An Optimised Laser System for the Evaluation of HpD Therapy -- A Multi-Led Source for Photoradiation Therapy -- Side Radiation Optical Fibers for Medical Applications -- Fluorescence of Hematoporphyrin-Derivative for Detection and Characterization of Tumors -- In Vivo Fluorescence Excitation Spectra of Hematoporphyrin-Derivative (HpD) -- In Vivo Observation of Porphyrin and of the Light Action -- Monitoring of Hematoporphyrin Injected in Humans and Clinical Prospects of its Use in Gynecologic Oncology -- V: Clinical Applications of HpD Phototherapy -- Hematoporphyrin Derivative Photoradiation Therapy, in Theory and in Practice -- Evaluation of Photoradiation Therapy (PRT) in 20 Cases of Cancers -- Hematoporphyrin Phototherapy of Malignant Tumors -- Hematoporphyrin-Derivative and Phototherapy in Extensive Basal-Cell Carcinoma of the Dorsal Skin -- Hematoporphyrin Derivative Photoradiation Therapy of Endobronchial Lung Cancer -- Photoradiation Therapy in Early Stage Cancer Cases of the Lung, Esophagus and Stomach -- Experimental and Clinical Studies on HpD-Photoradiation Therapy for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer -- Endoscopic HpD-Laser Photoradiation Therapy (PRT) of Cancer -- Dye-Laser Photoradiation-Therapy of Bladder Cancer after Photosensitization with Hematoporphyrin Derivative (HpD)-Basis for an Integral Irradiation -- Photoradiation Therapy with Hematoporphyrin Derivative and an Argon Dye Laser of Bladder Carcinoma -- Preclinical Examination of Ocular Photoradiation Therapy -- Photoradiation for Choroidal Malignant Melanoma.

The book shows a very original organization addressing in a non traditional way, but with a systematic approach, to who has an interest in using mathematics in the social sciences. The book is divided in four parts: (a) a historical part, written by Vittorio Capecchi which helps us understand the changes in the relationship between mathematics and sociology by analyzing the mathematical models of Paul F. Lazarsfeld, the model of simulation and artificial societies, models of artificial neural network and considering all the changes in scientific paradigms considered, (b) a part coordinated by Pier Luigi Contucci on mathematical models that consider the relationship between the mathematical models that come from physics and linguistics to arrive at the study of society and those which are born within sociology and economics, (c) a part coordinated by Massimo Buscema analyzing models of artificial neural networks, (d) a part coordinated by Bruno D`Amore which considers the relationship between mathematics and art. The title of the book "Mathematics and Society" was chosen because the mathematical applications exposed in the book allow you to address two major issues: (a) the general theme of technological innovation and quality of life (among the essays are on display mathematical applications to the problems of combating pollution and crime, applications to mathematical problems of immigration, mathematical applications to the problems of medical diagnosis, etc.) (b) the general theme of technical innovation and creativity, for example the art and mathematics section which connects to the theme of creative cities. The book is very original because it is not addressed only to those who are passionate about mathematical applications in social science but also to those who, in different societies, are: (a) involved in technological innovation to improve the quality of life, (b) involved in the wider distribution of technological innovation in different areas of creativity (as in the project "Creative Cities Network" of UNESCO). TOC: Mathematics and Society Preface Vittorio Capecchi, Massimo Buscema, Pierluigi Contucci, Bruno D`Amore 1- Vittorio Capecchi: Historical Introduction Section I (mathematics and models) 2- Pierluigi Contucci, Ignacio Gallo, Stefano Ghirlanda: "Equilibria of culture contact derived from ingroup and outgroup attitudes" 3- Oscar Bolina: "Society from the Statistical Mechanics Perspective" 4- Anna M. Borghi, Daniele Caligiore, Claudia Scorolli: "Objects, words, and actions. Some reasons why embodied models are badly needed in cognitive psychology." 5- Luca Desanctis, Stefano Ghirlanda: "Shared culture needs large social networks" 6- C. Gallo: "Mathematical models of financial markets" 7- F. Gallo, Pierluigi Contucci, A. Coutts, Ignacio Gallo: "Tackling climate change through energy efficiency: mathematical models to offer evidence-based recommendations for public policy" 8- Simone Sarti, Marco Terraneo: "An application of the multilevel regression technique to validate a social stratification scale" 9- Robert B. Smith: "The Academic Mind Revisited: Contextual Analysis via Multilevel Modeling" Section III (mathematics and neural networks) 10 - Massimo Buscema: "The General Philosophy of the Artificial Adaptive Systems" 11 - Massimo Buscema, Pier Luigi Sacco: "Auto-Contractive Maps, the H Function and the Maximally Regular Graph (MRG): a new methodology for data mining" 12- Massimo Buscema, Pier Luigi Sacco: "An Artificial Intelligent Systems Approach to - Unscrambling Power Networks in Italy`s Business Environment" 13- Giulia Massini: "Multi - Meta SOM" 14- Massimo Buscema: "How to make data mining: The Persons Arrested Dataset" 15- Enzo Grossi: "Medicine and Mathematics of Complex Systems" 16- Massimo Buscema, Enzo Grossi: "J-Net System: a new paradigm for Artificial Neural Networks applied to diagnostic imaging" 17 - S. Tangaro, R. Bellotti, F. De Carlo, G. Gargano: "Digital Image Processing in Medical Applications" Section III (mathematics and art) 18 - Giorgio T. Bagni: "Mathematics, Art, and Interpretation: an Hermeneutic Perspective" 19- Giorgio Bolondi: "Point, line and surface, following Hilbert and Kandinsky" 20- Bruno D`Amore: Figurative arts and mathematics: pipes, horses, triangles and meanings A contribution to a problematic theory of conceptual meaning, from Frege and Magritte up to the present time" 21- Michele Emmer: The idea of space in art, technology and mathematics" 22- Raffaele Mascella, Franco Eugeni,e Ezio Sciarpa: "Mathematical structures and sense of beauty" 23- Monica Idà: "Visual impact and mathematical learning" 24- Marco Pierini: "Art by Numbers.Mel Bochner, Roman Opalka and other Philarhythmics" 25-Aldo Spizzichino: "My way of playing with the computer. Suggestions for a personal experience in vector graphics" 26- Gian Marco Todesco: "Four dimensional ideas" 27- Igino Aschieri, Paola Vighi: "From Art to Mathematics in the paintings of Theo van Doesburg" Editors`s biographies

Crowd Intelligence and Crowd Cooperative Computing -- MatricEs: Matrix Embeddings for Link Prediction in Knowledge Graphs -- Learning User Embeddings based on Long Short-Term User Group Modeling for Next-Item Recommendation -- Context-Aware Quaternion Embedding for Knowledge Graph Completion -- Dependency-based Task Assignment in Spatial Crowdsourcing -- ICKG: An I Ching Knowledge Graph Tool Revealing Ancient Wisdom -- Collaborative Analysis on Code Structure and Semantics -- Temporal Planning-Based Choreography from Music -- An Adaptive Parameter DBSCAN Clustering and Reputation-aware QoS Prediction Method -- E↵ectiveness of Malicious Behavior and its Impact on Crowdsourcing -- Scene Adaptive Persistent Target Tracking and Attack Method Based On Deep Reinforcement Learning -- Research on Cost Control of Mobile Crowdsourcing Supporting Low Budget in Large Scale Environmental Information Monitoring -- Question Answering System Based on University Knowledge Graph -- Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Scheduling Algorithm for Service Di↵erentiation in Cloud Business Process Management System -- A Knowledge Tracing Model Based on Graph Attention Mechanism and Incorporating External Features -- Crowd-Powered Source Searching in Complex Environments -- Cooperative Evolutionary Computation and Human-like intelligent Collaboration -- Task Offloading and Resource Allocation with Privacy Constraints in End-edge-cloud Environment -- A Classifier-based Two-stage Training Model for Few-shot Segmentation -- EEG-based Motor Imagery Classification with Deep Adversarial Learning -- Comparison Analysis on Techniques of Preprocessing Imbalanced Data for Symbolic Regression -- A Feature Reduction-Induced Subspace Multiple Kernel Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm -- A Deep Neural Network based Resource Configuration Framework for Human-Machine Computing System -- Research on User's Mental Health Based on Comment Text -- A Multi-objective Level-based Learning Swarm Optimization Algorithm with Preference for Epidemic Resource Allocation -- Aesthetics-Diven Online Summarization to First-Person Tourism Videos -- Visual Scene-Aware Dialogue System for Cross-Modal Intelligent Human-Machine Interaction -- A Weighting Possibilistic Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm for Interval Granularity -- An Evolutionary Multi-Task Genetic Algorithm with Assisted-task for Flexible Job Shop Scheduling -- Evaluation of Depression Tendency Based on Cyber Psychosocial and Physical Computation -- Optimization of on-ramp confluence sequence for Internet of Vehicles with graph model -- Chinese Event Extraction Based on Hierarchical Attention Mechanism -- Instance-Aware Style-Swap for Disentangled Attribute-Level Image Editing -- Collaborative Multi-Head Contextualized Sparse Representations for Real-Time Open-Domain Question Answering -- Automatic Personality Prediction Based on Users' Chinese Handwriting Change -- Domain-Specific Collaborative Applications -- A Faster, Lighter and Stronger Deep Learning-Based Approach for Place Recognition -- An Improved Prior Box Generation Method for Small Object Detection -- ACAGNN: Source code representation based on fine-grained multi-view program features -- A Framework for Math Word Problem Solving Based on Pre-training Models And Spatial Optimization Strategies -- A Spillover-Based Model for Default Risk Assessment of Transaction Entities in Bulk Commodity Trade -- The Sandpile Model of Japanese Empire Dynamics -- Active Authorization Control of Deep Models Using Channel Pruning -- A Knowledge Graph-based Analysis Framework for Aircraft Configuration Change Propagation -- Node-IBD: A Dynamic Isolation Optimization Algorithm for Infection Prevention and Control Based on Influence Diffusion -- A Hybrid Layout Method Based on GPU for the Logistics Facility Layout Problem -- An interpretable loan credit evaluation method based on rule representation learner -- A Survey of Computer Vision-based Fall Detection and Technology Perspectives -- 3D Gaze Vis: Sharing Eye Tracking Data Visualization for Collaborative Work in VR Environment -- A Learning State Monitoring Method Based on Face Feature and Posture -- Meta-Transfer Learning for Person Re-Identification in Aerial Imagery. Horizontal Federated Traffic Speed Prediction Base on Secure Node Attribute Aggregation.

1 The Poultry Industry -- Biological Classification -- Domestication -- American Poultry Association Classification -- Commercial Classification -- Poultry as Food-Producing Animals -- Poultry as Laboratory Animals -- World Poultry Production -- The United States Poultry Industry -- Consumption of Poultry Products -- Careers in the Poultry Industry -- References -- 2 Anatomy and Structure of the Fowl -- Feathers -- Skin -- Muscles -- Skeleton -- Circulatory System -- Body Temperature -- Respiration -- Digestion -- Mouth and Esophagus -- Crop and Proventriculus -- Gizzard -- Pancreas -- Liver -- Small Intestine -- Ceca -- Large Intestine, Rectum, and Cloaca -- Excretory System -- Nervous System -- Avian Senses -- Endocrine Organs -- References -- 3 Physiology and Reproduction in Poultry -- Endocrine System -- Physiology of Reproduction -- Reproduction -- References -- 4 Genetics and Poultry Breeding -- The Cell Theory -- Cell Division -- Gene Function -- Genetic Code -- Mutations -- Phenotypic Expression (Nonadditive) -- Phenotypic Expression of Genes (Additive) -- Heritability Estimates -- Selection -- Current Breeding Systems -- Strain Crosses -- Crossbreeding -- Selecting Superior Genetic Stock -- Progeny Testing -- Sources of Genetic Stock -- Breeds and Varieties of Chickens -- The Utilitarian Concept -- Future Poultry Genetics and Breeding -- Lethal Genes -- Parthenogenesis -- References -- 5 Incubation and Hatchery Management -- Poultry Reproduction -- Storage and Selection of Hatching Eggs -- Embryonic Development -- Extraembryonic Membranes -- Daily Embryonic Growth -- Embryonic Nutrition -- Embryonic Communication -- Embryology in Research and Teaching -- Artificial Incubation -- Modern Incubators -- Temperature -- Relative Humidity -- Air Supply -- Hatching Egg Positions -- Embryonic Mortality -- The National Poultry Improvement Plan -- Hatchery Sanitation -- Franchise Hatchery System -- Hatchery Services -- References -- 6 Social Behavior and Animal Welfare -- Social Organization -- Behavior of Feral Chickens -- Communication -- Behavior of Domestic Poultry -- Social Behavior in Growing Chicks -- Other Adult Social Behavior Characteristics -- Animal Rights -- The Humane Movement -- Animal Welfarists -- Animal Rightists -- Animal Liberationists -- Agricultural Involvement with Humane Groups -- Public Relations -- Need for a Code of Ethics -- References -- 7 Environment and Housing -- Farmstead Planning -- External Services and Utilities -- Water Supply -- Poultry Building Orientation -- Aesthetic Value -- House Construction -- Turnkey Houses -- Criteria for Selecting a Manufactured House -- Vapor Barriers -- Ventilation -- References -- 8 Poultry Nutrition -- Nutrients -- References -- 9 Diseases and Parasites of Poultry -- Disease Prevention -- Diagnostic Organs in Postmortem Examinations -- Immunology of Disease Control -- Poultry Disease Control Strategy -- Vaccination -- Nutritional Deficiency Diseases -- Protozoan Diseases -- Bacterial Diseases -- Fowl Cholera -- Nonrespiratory Bacterial Diseases -- Mycoplasma -- Viral Diseases -- Fungal and Mold Diseases -- Mycotoxicosis -- External Parasites -- Internal Parasites -- Behavioral Diseases -- Reproductive Diseases -- References -- 10 Poultry and Egg Marketing -- Assembling -- Transporting -- Assumption of Risk -- Market News -- Futures Trading -- Processing Poultry -- Further Processing -- Eggs -- Storage -- Inspection and Grading -- Packaging -- Merchandising -- New Product Development -- References -- 11 Broiler Production -- United States Broiler Industry -- World Broiler Industry -- Broiler Breeders -- Housing and Egg Production -- Care of Hatching Eggs -- The Hatchery -- Housing for Broilers -- Litter -- Brooding -- Brooding Methods -- Density -- Placement -- Management Suggestions for Partial House Brooding -- Watering Equipment -- Feeding Equipment -- Lighting Programs -- Ventilation -- Gas Concentrations -- Ventilation for Partial House Brooding -- Fan Timers -- Fan Thermostats -- Air Intakes -- Broiler Diets -- Catching and Hauling Broilers -- Grower Responsibilities -- Catching Crews -- Types of Broilers -- Roasters -- Grower Contracts -- References -- 12 Commercial Egg Production -- Starting Pullets in Cages -- Brooding -- Growing Pullets in Cages -- Managing Laying Hens in Cages -- Induced Molting -- References -- 13 Turkey Production -- Origin of the Turkey -- Color Varieties -- Turkey Genetics -- Turkey Breeder Flocks -- Turkey Breeders -- Turkey Breeder Toms -- Turkey Breeder Hens -- Artificial Insemination -- Hatching Eggs -- Hatchery Services -- Brooding -- Floor Brooding -- Floor Covering -- Brooders -- Brooder Guards -- Equipment Arrangement -- Trough Feeders -- Mechanical Feeders -- Waterers -- Rearing Turkeys -- References -- 14 Waterfowl Production -- Ducks -- Geese -- Processing Waterfowl -- Handling Waterfowl -- Pinioning -- Sexing Waterfowl -- References -- 15 Miscellaneous Poultry -- Coturnix Quail -- Bobwhite Quail -- Chukar Partridge -- Pheasants -- Guinea Fowl -- Peafowl -- Pigeons -- Swan -- References -- 16 Poultry Management Practices -- Production Management -- Specialized Procedures and Devices -- Sanitation and Waste Disposal Procedures -- Financial Management -- References.

Global Change and Mountain Regions — an IGBP Initiative for Collaborative Research -- Climate Variations in Italy in the Last 130 Years -- Dendroclimatic Information on Silver Fir (Abies Alba Mill.) in the Northern Apennines -- Trends in High Frequency Precipitation Variability in Some Northern Italy Secular Stations -- Climate Change Experiments on a Glacier Foreland in the Central Alps -- High Mountain Summits as Sensitive Indicators of Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Patterns: The "Multi Summit-Approach" of GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) -- Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Italy During the Last Century -- Climate and other Sources of Change in the St. Elias Region -- Permafrost and Climate in Europe. Climate Change, Mountain Permafrost Degradation and Geotechnical Hazard -- Thermal Variations of Mountain Permafrost: an Example of Measurements Since 1987 in the Swiss Alps -- Climate Change and Air Quality Assessment in Canadian National Parks -- Regional Clean Air Partnerships and the ETEAM -- Land-Atmosphere Interactions -- Uncertainties in the Prediction of Regional Climate Change -- Gamma-Ray Spectrometer for "In Situ" Measurements on Glaciers and Snowfields -- Cs-137 Gamma Peak Detection in Snow Layers on Calderone Glacier -- The Effects of Global Warming on Mountain Regions: a Summary of the 1995 Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -- Global Change in Respect to Tendency to Acidification of Subarctic Mountain Lakes -- Influence of Climate, Species Immigration, Fire, and Men on Forest Dynamics In Northern Italy, from 6000 Cal. BP To Today -- Koenigia Islandica (Iceland Purslane) — A Case Study of a Potential Indicator of Climate Change in the UK -- Semi-Objective Sampling Strategies as One Basis for a Vegetation Survey -- Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on Drought in Swiss Forest Stands -- Forecasted Stability of Mediterranean Evergreen Species Considering Global Changes -- Birds as Bio-Indicators of Long-Transported Lead in the Alpine Environment -- Annual Estimations of Ecophysiological Parameters and Biogenic Volatile Compounds (BVOCs) Emissions in Citrus Sinensis (L.) Osbeck -- A Multiscale Study to Analyse the Response of Vegetation to Climatic Conditions -- Phytotoxic Ozone Effect on Selected Plant Species in a Standardized Experimental Design -- Plant Invasions in Central European Middle-Mountains: A Result of Global Change? -- Can Testate Amoebae (Protozoa) and Other Micro-Organisms Help to Overcome Biogeographic Bias in Large Scale Global Change Research? -- Effects of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 and Mineral Nitrogen Deposition on Litter Quality, Bioleaching and Decomposition in A Sphagnum Peat Bog -- Analysis of the Environmental Impact Caused by Introduced Animals in the Clarion Island, Archipelago of Revillagigedo, Colima, Mexico -- High Mountain Environment as Indicator of Global Change -- Effects of Elevated CO2 and Nitrogen Deposition on Natural Regeneration Processes of Cut-Over Ombrotrophic Peat Bogs in the Swiss Jura Mountains -- Economic Evaluation of Italian Parks and Natural Areas -- Environmental and Human Impacts on Coastal and Marine Protected Areas in India -- Past Climate Change and the Generation and Persistence of Species Richness in a Biodiversity Hotspot, the Cape Flora of South Africa -- The World Network of Biosphere Reserves: a Flexible Structure for Understanding and Responding to Global Change -- The Role of a Global Protected Areas System in Conserving Biodiversity in the Face of Climate Change -- The Strong Reduction Phase of the Calderone Glacier During the Last Two Centuries: Reconstruction of the Variation and of the Possible Scenarios With GIS Technologies -- Digital Geomorphologic Cartography of the Top Area of the Gran Sasso D'Italia Mountain Group (Central Apennine, Italy) -- The Late Pleistocene and Holocene Temporary Lakes in the Abruzzo Parks and the Central Apennines -- The Travertine Deposits of the Upper Pescara Valley (Central Abruzzi, Italy): A Clue for the Reconstruction of the Late Quaternary Palaeoenvironmental Evolution of the Area -- The Protected Areas System for the Conservation and for an Eco-Compatible Development of the Territory: The Maiella National Park -- Environmental Protection and Social Protection: The Sirente-Velino Regional Park -- Protected Areas Management: an Example of Application in the Gran Sasso Park -- The Main Invasive Alien Plants in the Protected Areas in Central Italy (Abruzzo) -- The Historical and Iconographic Research in the Reconstruction of the Variation of the Calderone Glacier: State of the Art and Perspective -- Numerical Experiments to Study the Possible Meteorological Changes Induced by the Presence of a Lake.

Part 1. Biodiversity and Conservation -- Chapter 1. Biodiversity of medicinal plants in the Eastern Ghats of Northern Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 2. Biodiversity, Conservation and Medicinal Uses of Seaweeds: The Glimpses -- Chapter 3. Tree Flora of Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 4. Genetic diversity and variability analysis in sweet flag (Acorus calamus L.) -- Chapter 5. Flora of Mangrove species utilized for ethnomedicinal practices in Gautami Godavari estuary, Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 6. Tree diversity assessment in sacred groves of Eastern Ghats, Visakhapatnam district, Andhra Pradesh, India. Part 2. Ethnobotany and Ethnomedicine -- Chapter 7. Structure design and establishment of database application system for Miao medicinal plants in Guizhou Province, China -- Chapter 8. Documentation and Protection of Traditional Knowledge -- Chapter 9. Ethnobotanical assessment of medicinal plants used by Indigenous people living around the Sacred Groves of East Godavari District, Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 10. Ethno-botanico-medicine in treatment of diabetes by the tribal groups of Visakhapatnam District, Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 11. Ethnomedicine from Konda Reddis of High Altitude Agency Tracts of East Godavari District, Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 12. A traditional use of plants for the treatment of bone fractures by the local people of West Sikkim, India -- Chapter 13. God's tree: A culturally coded strategy for conservation (A case study of Gairsain eco- region of district Chamoli, Uttarakhand) -- Chapter 14. Ethnomedicinal plants used by ethnic people in Eastern Ghats of Visakhapatnam district, Andhra Pradesh, India -- Chapter 15. Ethnobotany of medicinal plants of Eastern Ghats of Andhra Pradesh for identification of plants with antitumour and antimicrobial potential -- Chapter 16. Controlling biological infestations in museums by medicinal plants -- Chapter 17. Hitherto unexplored aspects of medicinal plants from Ayurveda and Vrikshayurveda -- Chapter 18. Ethno veterinary medicinal plants and practices in Andaman and Nicobar Islands -- Chapter 19. Ethnobotanical trees of Sri Lankamalleswara wild life sanctuary, Eastern Ghats, Andhra Pradesh -- Chapter 20. A Study on Medical Systems for Dengue Fever -- Part 3. Bioactive compounds from plants and microbes -- Chapter 21. Development of immunoassays for Ginsenosides in Ginseng -- Chapter 22. Elicitation of flavonoids in Kalanchoë pinnata by Agrobacterium rhizogenes-mediated transformation and UV-Bradiation -- Chapter 23. Biogenic silver nanoparticles from Trametes ljubarskyi (white rot fungus): efficient and effective anti candidal activity -- Chapter 24. Herbal medicinal markets in China: An Ethnobotanical Survey -- Chapter 25. Phyto chemical constituents and pharmacological activities of a traditional medicinal plant Glochidion eriocarpum (Phyllanthaceae) -- Chapter 26. Endophytic fungi and their impact on Agroecosystems -- Chapter 27. GC-MS and Insilico molecular docking analysis of secondary metabolites present in leaf extract of Cassia occidentalis Linn -- Chapter 28. Protective effect of Mimusops elengi L. on renal and hepatic markers in STZ-induced diabetic Rats -- Chapter 29. Extraction and purification of gymnemic acid from Gymnema sylvestre r.br -- Chapter 30. GC-MS Profile of the unsaponifiable and saponifiable matters of Coldenia procumbens Linn. Leaves -- Chapter 31. Isolation of sterols from the bark hexane extract of Cordia dichotoma -- Chapter 32. Isolation and characterization of pharmacologically active tannins from stem bark of Syzygium samarangense -- Chapter 33. Rare actinobacteria Nocardiopsis lucentensis VLK-104 isolated from Mangrove ecosystem of Krishna district, Andhra Pradesh -- Chapter 34. Aegle marmelos (Rutaceae): evaluation of root phytochemical constituents for antimicrobial activity -- Chapter 35. Qualitative and quantitative phytochemical studies in different parts of Sesamum indicum L -- Chapter 36. Phytochemical investigation and comparative evaluation of various market samples of Triphala powder with references to their free scavenging and anti-diabetic activity – an in-vitro-approach -- Chapter 37. In vitro anticancer activity of Canthium parviflorum Lam extracts against cancer cell lines -- Chapter 38. Bioactive Metabolites from Streptomyces nanhaiensis VSM-1: Polyphasic taxonomy, Optimization and Evaluation of antimicrobial metabolites by GC-MS analysis -- Chapter 39. In vitro cultured cells as an option for enhancing the production of bioactive compounds: Some selected case studies -- Chapter 40. Anti-Diabetic Studies of the leaf extract of Ericostemma littorale (Blume) using Wistar Rats -- Part 4. Biotechnology -- Chapter 41. Molecular and cytogenetical approaches for genetic diversity analysis of wild and cultivated medicinal plant species from North-East India with focus on genus Curcuma -- Chapter 42. Mutagenic effect of chemicals on certain biochemical parameters in two cultivars of sunflower ( Helianthus annuus L.) -- Chapter 43. Mutagenic effectiveness and efficiency of Gamma rays in Musk okra (Abelmoschus moschatus L.) -- Chapter 44. Detection of genetic variation in Biophytum sensitivum Linn. by RAPD and ISSR markers -- Chapter 45. Development of standard protocols for in vitro regeneration of some selected banana cultivars (Musa spp.) from India -- Chapter 46. In vitro method of high frequency plant regeneration through internodal callus of Ruta Graveolens L -- Chapter 47. Conservation of an endangered medicinal forest tree species, Oroxylum indicum L. Kurz through in vitro culture- A review -- Chapter 48. DNA barcode: the genetic blue print for identity and diversity of Phyllanthus amarus Schum. et. Thonn -- Chapter 49. Microbiological and physicochemical quality of potable water in valasi, agency area, Andhra Pradesh.

Essays -- Public Choice and Constitutional Political Economy -- Public Choice: An Introduction -- Are Vote and Popularity Functions Economically Correct? -- Constitutional Political Economy -- Corruption -- Dictatorship -- Environmental Politics -- Experimental Public Choice -- Gordon Tullock at Four Score Years: An Evaluation -- Interest Group Behavior and Influence -- International Trade Policy: Departure from Free Trade -- James M. Buchanan -- Milton Friedman, 1912: Harbinger of the Public Choice Revolution -- Monetary Policy and Central Bank Behavior -- The Political Economy of Taxation: Positive and Normative Analysis When Collective Choice Matters -- Public Choice from the Perspective of Economics -- Public Choice from the Perspective of the History of Thought -- Public Choice Theory from the Perspective of Law -- Public Choice from the Perspective of Philosophy -- Public Choice from the Perspective of Sociology -- Public Finance -- Regulation and Antitrust -- Scholarly Legacy of Mancur Olson -- Shadow Economy -- Social Choice, Contracts and Logrolling -- Spatial Theory -- Trade Liberalization and Globalization -- William H. Riker -- Concepts -- Academia -- Al-Qaeda -- Alternative Voting Methods -- Altruism -- The Anatomy of Political Representation -- Approval Voting -- Arbitration and Bargaining -- Arrow's Impossibility Theorem -- An 'Austrian' Perspective on Public Choice -- Autocracy -- Autocratic Succession -- Bicameralism -- Blackmail -- Black's Single-Peakedness Condition -- Budgetary Processes -- Budget Deficits -- Bureaucratic Discretion -- Campaign Contributions and Campaign Finance -- Campaign Finance 1 -- Campaign Finance 2 -- Central Banks -- Chicago Political Economy -- The Clayton Act -- Coalitions and Power Indices -- Coalitions and Social Choice -- Coase Theorem and Political Markets -- Coercion -- Collective Action Under the Articles of Confederation -- Committee Assignments -- Committee Jurisdictions and PAC Contributions -- Committees in Legislatures -- Commons and Anticommons -- Constitution -- Constitutional Frameworks and Economic Progress -- The Constitution of the European Union -- Constitutional Political Economy -- The Contemporary Political Economy Approach to Bureaucracy -- Contractarianism -- Corruption 1 -- Corruption 2 -- Cost and Choice -- The Cost Disease of the Personal Services -- Customary Law -- The Demand-Revealing Process -- Deregulation of Postal Service -- Dictators and Social Contracts -- Direct Democracy -- Discrimination -- Dynamic Inconsistency -- Economic Freedom and its Measurement -- Economic Freedom and Political Freedom -- Economic Regulation -- The Economic Theory of Clubs -- Economists Versus the Public on Economic Policy -- Education and the State -- Efficiency of Democracy -- Efficiency of Democracy? -- The Efficiency of the Common Law Hypothesis -- Elected Versus Appointed Regulators -- Election Models -- Electoral College -- Electoral Competition in Mixed Systems of Representation -- The Elusive Median Voter -- Emerging from the Hobbesian Jungle -- Endogenous Morality -- Enron -- Environmental Politics and Economic Development -- The Euro -- European Political Integration -- Evolution of Institutions -- The Evolution of Law -- Experimental Economics and Public Choice -- Experimental Public Choice -- Expressive Voting and Redistribution -- Fair Division -- Fame and Politics -- Federal Reserve System -- Forecasting Presidential Elections in the United States -- Game Theory -- Game Theory in Public Choice -- Generality and the Efficiency of Government Decision Making -- Group Roles in Evolution and Cognition -- Growth of Local Government in the United States -- The Growth of Public Expenditure -- The Growth of the Relative Size of Government -- Heresthetics and the Evolution of the Us Constitution -- Homo Economicus -- Human Evolution and Political Behavior -- Ideology -- The Importance of the Middle in Spatial Politics -- Initiative and Referendum -- Institutions of Trade Protection -- Interest Groups 1 -- Interest Groups 2 -- International Game of Power -- International Organization -- Internet Voting -- Is Russia a Market Economy? -- Is Voting Rational? -- The Italian Public Finance Contribution to Public Choice -- The Judiciary -- The Law and Economics Movement -- Legal Precedents and Judicial Discretion -- Legal Rules and Standards -- Legislative Politics -- Legislators -- Leviathan Models of Government -- Logic of Collective Action -- The Logic of Liberty -- Logrolling 1 -- Logrolling 2 -- Meddlesome Preferences and Rent Extraction: The Tobacco Shakedown -- The Median in Politics -- The Median Voter Model -- Medieval Church -- Mercantilism -- Monetary Politics -- The New Deal -- Nonprofit Organizations -- The Origins of Social Choice Theory -- The Paradox of Rebellion -- Parchment Versus Guns -- Political and Cultural Nationalism -- Political Business Cycles -- Political Economics and Public Choice -- The Political Economy of FEMA Disaster Payments -- The Political Economy of Italian Electoral Reform -- Political Transaction-Cost Manipulation -- Pressure Groups and Uninformed Voters -- Principal-Agent Relationships in the Theory of Bureaucracy -- Prohibition -- Public Choice and Socialism -- Public Choice and the Chicago School of Antitrust -- Public Choice in Italy -- Public Enterprise -- Public Finance and the Median Voter Model -- Public Finance in Democratic Process -- Public Goods -- Public Schools -- Public Utility Regulation -- Rational Choice Approaches to Economic and Political History -- Rational Ignorance -- Rational Irrationality -- Reciprocity -- Redistributive Politics 1 -- Redistributive Politics 2 -- Regulating Government -- Regulatory Takings -- Rent Dissipation -- Rent Extraction -- Rent Seeking -- Rent Seeking and Political Institutions -- Rent-Seeking Games -- Rent Seeking in Development -- The Rule of Law -- Rules Versus Standards -- Self-Interest -- Selfish Gene -- September 11, 2001 -- Single-Peaked Preferences and Median Voter Theorems -- The Social Cost of Rent Seeking -- Sortition -- Standard Oil and Microsoft: Antitrust Lessons -- State-Sponsored Murder as a Rent-Seeking Activity -- Structure-Induced Equilibrium -- Supply of Public Goods -- The Supreme Court -- Takings and Public Choice: The Persuasion of Price -- Term Limits 1 -- Term Limits 2 -- Terrorism -- The Theory and Measurement of Economic Freedom -- Totalitarianism -- Trade Protectionism -- Transitional Economies -- Transitions from Autocracy to Democracy -- Triangulation -- Underground Government: The Off-Budget Public Sector -- The Value of Voting Rights -- Votes for Women -- Voting Equipment, Minorities and the Poor -- Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections -- Voting Paradoxes in List Systems of Proportional Representation -- The War on Drugs -- Welfare Economics and Public Choice -- Welfare Economics and the Theory of the State -- Why Government Succeeds.

This post is from a set of comments I gave at the NBER Asset Pricing conference in early November at Stanford.  Conference agenda here. My full slides here. There was video, but sadly I took too long to write this post and the NBER took down the conference video. I was asked to comment on "Downward Nominal Rigidities and Bond Premia" by François Gourio  and Phuong Ngo. It's a very nice clean paper, so all I could think to do as discussant is praise it, then move on to bigger issues. These are really comments about whole literatures, not about one paper. One can admire the play but complain about the game. The paper implements a version of Bob Lucas' 1973 "International evidence" observation. Prices are less sticky in high inflation countries. The Phillips curve more vertical. Output is less affected by inflation. The Calvo fairy visits every night in Argentina. To Lucas, high inflation comes with variable inflation, so people understand that price changes are mostly aggregate not relative prices, and ignore them. Gourio and Ngo use a new-Keynesian model with downwardly sticky prices and wages to express the idea.  When inflation is low, we're more often in the more-sticky regime. They use this idea in a model of bond risk premia. Times of low inflation lead to more correlation of inflation and output, and so a different correlation of nominal bond returns with the discount factor, and a different term premium. I made two points, first about bond premiums and second about new-Keynesian models. Only the latter for this post. This paper, like hundreds before it, adds a few ingredients on top of a standard textbook new-Keynesian model. But that textbook model has deep structural problems. There are known ways to fix the problems. Yet we continually build on the standard model, rather than incorporate known ways or find new ways to fix its underlying problems. Problem 1: The sign is "wrong" or at least unconventional.The basic sign is wrong -- or at least counter to the standard belief of all policy makers. In the model, higher interest rates cause inflation to jump down immediately, and then rise over time. Everyone at the Fed uniformly believes that higher interest rates cause inflation to go nowhere immediately, and then gently decline over time, with "long and variable lags." Larry Ball pointed this out 30 years ago. The behavior comes straight from the forward-looking Phillips curve. Lower output goes with lower inflation, relative to future inflation. I.e. inflation rising over time. To be clear, maybe the model is right and the beliefs are wrong. It's amazing that so much modeling and empirical work has gone in to massaging theory and data to conform to Milton Friedman's 1968 proclamation of how monetary policy works. The "long and variable lags" in particular are a trouble to modern economics. If you know prices are going up tomorrow, you raise prices today. But that's for another day. This model does not behave the way most people think the economy behaves, so if you're going to use it, at least that needs a major asterisk.  Well, we know how to fix this. You can see that sneaking lagged inflation into the Phillips curve is going to be a big part of that.  Christiano Eichenbaum and Evans, 20  years ago, produced a widely cited model that "fixes" this problem. It has a lot of ingredients. Most of all, it assumes that wages and prices are indexed. Firms and workers that don't get tapped by the Calvo fairy to change their price or wage nonetheless raise by observed inflation. This gives a Phillips curve with lagged inflation. Moreover, in preferences, investment, and this Phillips curve, CEE modify the model to put growth rates in place of levels. (More review in a three part series on new-Keynesian models here.) The result: If the funds rate goes down (right panel) unexpectedly, inflation goes down just a bit but then turns around and goes up a year later. (Several other authors get to the same place by abandoning rational expectations. But that has its own problems, and it's going to be hard to incorporate asset pricing that way. Much more in Expectations and the Neutrality of Interest Rates) Great. But notice that neither Gourio and Pho nor pretty much anyone else builds on this model. We cite it, but don't use it. Instead, 20 more years of NK theorizing studies different extensions of the basic model, that don't solve the central conundrum. Problem 2: Fed induced explosionsThe standard new-Keynesian model says that if the Fed holds interest rates constant, inflation is stable -- will go away on its own -- but indeterminate. There are multiple equilibria. The standard new-Keynesian model thus assumes that the Fed deliberately destabilizes the economy. If inflation comes out more than the Fed wishes, the Fed will lead the economy to hyperinflation or hyper deflation. Under that threat, people jump to the inflation that the Fed wishes to see. But the Fed does no such thing.  Central bankers resolutely state that their job is to stabilize the economy, to bring inflation back from wherever it might go. Despite thousands of papers with new-Keynesian equations written at central banks, if anyone were ever to honestly describe those equations in the introduction, "we assume that the central bank is committed to respond to inflation by hyperinflation or deflation in order to select from multiple equilibria" they would be laughed out of a job. This has been clear, I think, since 2000 or so. I figured it out by reading Bob King's "Language and Limits." My  "Determinacy and Identification" in the JPE 2011 was all about this. We've also known at least one way to fix it, as shown: fiscal theory. OK, I'm a broken record on this topic. Instead, we go on with the same model and its underlying widely counterfactual assumption about policy. Problem 3: The fit is terribleA model consists of a set of equations, with the thing you want to determine (say, inflation) on the left, the economic causes described by the model on the right, plus "shocks," which are things your model can't capture. In the explanation part, there are parameters (\(\sigma, \ \beta, \ \kappa, \ \phi\)), that control how much the things on the right affect the things on the left. The fit of new-Keynesian models is usually terrible. In accounting for economic variables (\(x_t,\) \(\pi_t, \) \(i_t \) here), the error terms (\(\varepsilon\)) are much larger than the model's economic mechanisms (the \(x,\) \(\pi\) on the right hand side). Forecasts -- predicting  \(\pi\), \(x\) ahead of time -- is worse. For example, where did inflation come from and why did it go away? Expected inflation hasn't moved much, and the economy just plugged along. Most of the rise and fall of inflation came from inflation shocks.  Related, the fit of the models is about the same amount of terrible for different values of the parameters. That means the parameters are "poorly identified" if identified at all. That means that the mechanisms of the model -- say, how much higher interest rates lower output, and then how much lower output affects inflation -- are weak, and poorly understood. In part this isn't often noticed because we got out of the habit of evaluating models by fit in the 1980s. Most models are evaluated, as I showed above for CEE by matching select "identified" impulse response functions. But as those response functions also explain small variances of output and inflation, it's possible to match response functions well, yet still fit the data badly, i.e. fit the data only by adding big shocks to every equation. I don't know of good fixes here. Old fashioned ISLM models had similar problems (See Sims 1980). But it is a fact that we just ignore and go on. The Phillips curve is a central problem, which has only gotten worse lately. Unemployment was high and declining throughout the 2010s, with stable inflation. Inflation came with high unemployment in 2021. And inflation fell with no high real interest rates, no unemployment, and strong growth in 2022-2023. But what will replace it? So where are we?Macro is surprisingly un-cumulative. We start with a textbook model. People find some shortcomings and suggest a fix. But rather than incorporate that fix, the next paper adds a different fix to the same textbook  model. One would think we would follow the path on the right. We don't. We follow the path on the left. This is common in economics. The real business cycle literature followed much the same path. After the King Plosser Rebelo stochastic growth model became the standard, people spent a decade with one extension after another, each well motivated to fix a stylized fact. But by and large the next paper didn't build on the last one, but instead offered a new variation on the KPR model. Posteriors follow priors according to Bayes' rule, of course. So another way of putting the observation, people seem to put a pretty high prior on the original model, but don't trust the variations at all. I sin too. In Fiscal Theory of the Price Level  I married fiscal theory with the new-Keynsian IS and Phillips curve, exactly as above, despite problems #1 and #3. Well, it makes a lot of sense to change one ingredient at a time to see how a new theory works. I'm unhappy with the result, but I haven't been able to move on to a new and better textbook model, which is what has occasioned several of these related posts.  Wę need a digestion. Which of the new ingredients are reliable, robust, and belong as part of the new "textbook" model? That's not easy. Reliable and robust is very hard to find, and to persuade people. There are so many to choose from -- CEE's smorgasbord, capital, financial frictions, heterogeneous agents, different expectation formation stories, different pricing frictions,  and so on. What's the minimal easy set of these to use? Part of the trouble lies in how publishing works. It's nearly impossible to publish a paper that removes old ingredients, that digests the model down to a new textbook version. The rewards are to publishing papers that add new ingredients. Even if, like CEE, everyone cites them but doesn't use them. I've asked many economists why they build on a model with so many known problems, and why they don't include known fixes. (Not just fiscal theory!) The answer is usually, yes, I know about all these problems, but nobody will bother me about them since every other paper makes the same assumptions, and I need to get papers published.     I went on a bit of a tear here as I referee lots of great papers like this one. Every part of the paper is great, except it builds on a model with big flaws we've known about for 30 years. It feels unfair to complain about the underlying model, since the journal has published and will publish a hundred other papers. But at what point can we, collectively, scream "Stop!" The new-Keynesian model has been the standard model for an astonishing 30 years. None of ISLM, monetarism, rational expectations, or real business cycles lasted that long.  It's even more amazing that it is so unchanged in all this time. It is definitely time for a better textbook version of the model! Maybe this is a plea for Woodford, Gali or one of the other NK textbook authors, which much better command of all the variations than I have, to bless us a new textbook model. Or, perhaps it's time for something totally new. That's not fiscal theory per se. Fiscal theory is an ingredient, not a model.  You can marry it to new-Keynesian models, as I, Leeper, Sims, and others have done. But you can also marry it to old ISLM or anything else you want. Given the above, maybe there isn't an existing modification but a new start. I don't  know what that is. (My comments also have some similar comments about term premiums and how to think about them, but this post is long enough.) Update:Twitter correspondents Stéphane Surprenant and Tom Holden point me to The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino Giovanni Ricco in the AEJ Macro, and Inflation, output and markup dynamics with purely forward-looking wage and price setters by Louis Phaneuf, Eric Sims, and Jean Gardy Victor in the European Economic Review. The former is a VAR with high frequency measurement of the monetary policy shock. And.. Source: Miranda-Agrippino and RiccoThe price level as well as the inflation rate can jump down immediately when the interest rate rises! (I think the graph plots the level of CPI, not growth rate.) That's even stronger than the baseline model in which the price level, being sticky, does not move, but the inflation rate jumps on the interest rate rise. The latter is a nice theoretical paper. It adds a lot of the CEE assumptions.  I overstated a great deal that others have not used these ingredients.  They are used in these "medium scale" models, just not in "textbook" models. However, it gets rid of indexed prices and wages with purely forward looking Phillips curves. It adds intermediate goods however. This makes prices changes work through the network of suppliers adding interesting dynamics, which has always struck me as a very important ingredient. And...Source: Phaneuf, Sims ,and VictorThe main estimate is the dark line. Here you see a model with the conventional response: inflation does not move on impact, and increases some time after the interest rate rise.  So, we can switch places! Estimates can replicate the conventional model, with an instant inflation response. Models can replicate the conventional estimates, with a slow inflation response. This one is much prettier than CEEs. 

Dirk Messner on the dynamics
of global change and the significance of international science and technology
cooperation in the post-Western world



This is the fifth in a series of Talks dedicated to the technopolitics of International Relations, linked to the forthcoming double volume 'The Global Politics of Science and Technology' edited by Maximilian Mayer, Mariana Carpes, and Ruth Knoblich 





In recent years, the analysis of new emerging powers and shifting global order has become central to the study of international relations. While International Relations, aiming to evolve into a truly global discipline, is only just about to start opening up towards Non-Western perspectives, global power shifts have already led to a restructuring of global governance architecture in large fields of political reality and practice. Dirk Messner illustrates how far global power shifts have to lead to new patterns of international cooperation using international science and technology cooperation as a case in point. He argues that investment in joint knowledge creation and knowledge exchange is vital for managing the earth system. Messner also points to the multitude of tasks related to socio-technical systems which the political sphere is currently facing, particularly with regard to the challenge of managing the climate system. 




Print version of this Talk (pdf)




What is the most important challenge facing global politics that should be the central debate in the discipline of International Relations?



The biggest challenge of the next decades which we have to come to terms with is governing the big global commons. When I say global commons I do have in mind the atmosphere, the climate system, and other parts of the earth system, but also international financial markets and global infrastructures, such as the Internet – stability of these and other global commons is a public good much required. We need to stabilize the global commons and then manage them in a cooperative manner.



Three dynamics of global change make it specifically challenging to manage these global commons. The first wave of global change is the globalization wave; the economic globalization, cross-border dynamics, global value chains. It becomes evident that in many areas and especially when it comes to the global commons, regulation exceeds the capacity of individual nation states. The international community is required to institutionalize multilateralism and efficient global governance mechanisms in order to properly address issues arising from global dynamics. The second big global change is the shift from a Western to a post-Western world order. Global power shifts remaking the international system impede governing global commons. The third wave of global change is related to climate change, which adds a new dimension of global dynamics; human beings now have to learn how to steer, to stabilize, and how to govern the earth system as such. We are not only a species living on this planet, depending from resources and ecosystems of the earth systems. With the acceleration of economic globalization during the 1990s and the emergence of new, non-Western economic drivers of change, like China, humankind now significantly impacts the physical structures of the earth system. This trend is new. For the first 4,6 billion years of the existence of the earth system it was driven by the laws of physics, the dynamics of biology and bio-chemical processes. Homo sapiens appeared 220.000 years ago, and the impact of our species on the earth system has been marginal until the industrial revolution started 250 years ago. During the last decades human mankind became a major driver of change at a planetary scale.





How did you arrive in your current thinking about these issues?



I have always been interested in international relations, international policy dimensions, and the global economy. I started at the Free University of Berlin at the beginning of the 80's towards the mid-80's, studying Political Science and Economics. One among those professors who have been particularly important to me is Elmar Altvater. He was the supervisor of my diploma as well as of my Ph.D., and he sent me abroad. This resulted being a pivotal experience to me. I studied the last year of my first degree in Seoul, in South Korea. It was the period, the 80's, when the four Asian Tiger states emerged following Japan's example: South Korea, Taiwan, Hongkong, and Singapur. I had the chance to visit these countries, study there and learn a lot about Asia. I was fascinated by the dynamics of emerging economies and what this implied for the international arena. Somewhat later, the Latin American continent became the center of my interest. I did research in Nicaragua, Uruguay, Chile and some other Latin American countries, trying to understand liberalization-movements, how weaker actors come under pressure in Western-dominated global settings, but also how some countries managed it to become dynamic parts of the global economy (like the "Asian tigers" or Chile) and why others failed. I learnt that it is crucial to understand dynamics of global change in order to being able to build solid and inclusive economic structures and legitimate political systems at national levels. There has always been a political impulse that pulled me into certain fields I decided to work in.





What is your advice for students who would like to get into the field of global change research or international cooperation?



My first advice is: visit and work in different countries and different cultural and political settings. It is one thing to learn from scholars or books, but having studied and having lived in different contexts and countries is absolutely a key experience. This is the way to understand global dynamics, to get a feeling for differences and similarities. My second advice stems from my experience and conviction that we need much more interdisciplinary research than we currently have. We talk a lot about interdisciplinarity, however, we do not have career paths that systematically build interdisciplinary teams.



Looking particularly at global environmental changes and the future of the earth system, at the end of the day, social scientists and natural scientists need to learn how to work together and to understand each other. The future of the oceans, for example, is not a question that can be understood by ocean biologists only. They are the people studying how these elements of the earth system are actually working, the dynamics and drivers - focusing on physical, chemical, and biochemical processes. But when we look at the oceans towards 2100 from the perspective of global change, the most important drivers are now us human beings, our economies, our consumption patterns, our greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the oceans. And this implies that to understand dynamics of global change, we need to analyze the interactions, interdependences and feedback loops between three systems: the ecological system(s); social systems (our economies and societies) driven by humans; the technical systems and infrastructures. Therefore natural scientists, social scientists, and engineers need to interact very closely.  In the German Advisory Council on Global Change we call this approach: Transformation Research. Currently, we do not possess the appropriate university structures to adequately address this sort of problems. This is an immense institutional challenge. If I were a young scholar I would move into this direction, crossing disciplinary boundaries as much as possible.





What is the role of science and technologies in the dynamics of global change?



There are multiple important dimensions, but I would like to focus on some of them by moving through the aforementioned waves of global change. Technology is driving economic globalization, the first wave of global change. So we need to understand the dynamics of new technologies, especially the impact of ICTs, in order to understand the dynamics of economic globalization. The World Wide Web and social communication media are restructuring industrialization processes and global value chains. ICT infrastructure is also displaying a big potential for less developed regions. In Africa, for example, we saw many African countries jumping from the old telephone technologies to smartphones within less than a decade, because the old, maintenance and capital intensive communications infrastructure was no longer needed. Many African people now have access to smartphones, thus to communication- and information networks, and begin to reshape prize constellations and the global economy. Because of its restructuring effects, the impact of ICTs is relevant in all areas of the global economy. The global trend towards urbanization is similarly related to ICTs. Currently, we approach the global economy via data on national economies. But this might be about to change, as global mega-cities develop into global knowledge and financial hubs, building their own networks. In 2040, 80 percent of the global production, global GDP, global consumption, global exchange might be concentrated in 70 to 80 global cities or city regions.



Technology is also linked to the second wave of global change – the tectonic global power shift – in the way that investment in technology and knowledge in emerging economies are growing rapidly. We are not only facing economic and political power shifts, but also a remaking of the global science and research system itself. From my perspective, international cooperation in the field of science and technology research between "old powers" and "new powers", between Western countries and non-Western countries is extremely important for two reasons: First, we need to pool know-how in order to solve core global challenges and to develop patterns for managing the global commons. Interaction and cooperation in the field of science and technology is especially important for the creation of knowledge that is "better" in any way. For instance, in the field of adaptation policies to the impacts of climate change, most of the knowledge on how societies and local communities actually work or respond under these conditions exists in non-Western societies. The generation of knowledge is context dependent. We need to interact with colleagues from the respective countries for mutual learning and common knowledge improvement. My second argument is that, as an effect of the global power shift, traditional development cooperation is losing legitimacy. Many of these societies, from China to Peru, from Kenya to Vietnam, are no longer interested in our usual business, in our "aid-packages", our money, our experts or our concepts. What they are more interested in is true and reciprocal knowledge exchange and joint knowledge creation. Therefore, investments in respective forms and institutions of knowledge exchange and creation will be a central pillar of/for future oriented development cooperation or international cooperation and beneficial for all partners involved. Joint knowledge creation is a precondition for joint action and legitimate global governance initiatives.



The role of technologies with regard to the implications of climate change is crucial and multifaceted. In the German Advisory Council on Global Change we put forth suggestions concerning the transformation towards a low-carbon global economy. We are relatively optimistic in a technological sense. This statement is partly based on the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) research, which has been driven by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, one of our colleagues, who is working on energy modeling. The perspective there is that we know which kind of technologies we need for the transformation into a low-carbon or even zero-carbon economy. We can even calculate the investment costs and structures of different countries and regions. But we do know relatively little about the transformation processes of entire societies, economies and, eventually, the international system towards low-carbon systems. The transformation towards a low-carbon society is a "great transformation". In the entire history of mankind there might be only two examples for such a profound change: the industrial revolution 250 years ago and the Neolithic revolution 10.000 years ago, which induced the practices of agriculture. Today, we thus witness the third great transformation: the decoupling from fossil resources, from high-carbon to zero-carbon. To achieve the 2° Celsius goal, a complete decarbonization of the basic infrastructures of the global economy (the energy systems, the urban infrastructures and systems, the land use systems) is required – within a very limited period of time, until 2070. Comprehensive knowledge is key to achieve this. Let me emphasize once more the significance of international cooperation in the field of science and technology research, particularly in the IPCC context. I am sure that politicians from China, India, or Brazil only accept what the IPCC is presenting as objective knowledge, as the stand of the art knowledge, because their national scientists are deeply involved. If this were a classical western-based knowledge project it would have resulted in a lack of legitimacy. In the case of global climate policy, it is obvious that investment in joint knowledge creation is also about creating legitimacy for joint action.





What are the main obstacles of the low-carbon transformation?



The first two great transformations have been evolutionary processes. No one "planned" the industrial revolution, not to mention the Neolithic revolution.  These have been evolutionary dynamics. The sustainability transformation instead needs to be a governed process right from the beginning. In our institute, we looked at different transformation dynamics, not only the really big ones, the Neolithic, industrial, and the current sustainability transformation. We also examined structural adjustment programs in Latin America and Africa, the collapse of communism at the end of the 80s, the abolition of slavery, and similar other key transformations of human societies. Based on this historical perspective, we have identified four main drivers of transformation: The first one is crisis, this is the most important one. Confronted with strong crises, society and probably also individuals react and change direction. The second important driver is very often technology and scientific (r)evolution. The third driver is vision: If you are confronted with a problem but you do not know where to go to, transformation becomes very difficult. The European Union is the product of a fresh vision among elites after World War II; the United Nations is a result of the disasters of the first half of the 20th century. Advancing a vision is an essential means to move or to transform in a goal-oriented manner. Sustainability, of course, is also a vision. The fourth and last driver of transformation is "knowledge": you know that you have a certain problem constellation, and though the crisis is still not there, you react based on your knowledge in a preventive way.



For the low-carbon transformation, the fourth driver currently is absolutely key. We are able to address problems which would otherwise become much worse in the future, although the climate crisis is latent still – in contrast to, for example, the financial crisis, which is more visible in its effects. The impacts of a global warming of 4 or 5 degrees are still not visible. This makes for a huge difference. In fact, humans are not very good at acting and transforming significantly based on knowledge only. In combination with visible, tangible crises, knowledge is a strong driver of change, but without crisis, it is merely sufficient. Transformations based on knowledge and preventive action only are rare. The ozone hole is one positive example; solving the problem was possible because it required less complex technological change, affecting few industries only. Human beings are risk-averse in a sense, we are conservative, we do not like to change rapidly; we are path-dependent. John Maynard Keynes once said: "It is easy to develop new concepts and ideas. The difficult thing is to forget the old ones". Therefore, scientific tools are needed in order to sketch out future scenarios. Based on scientific knowledge, we need to convince our societies, our political decision-makers that it is necessary and possible to transform societies and economies towards sustainability – in order to avoid disruptive change in the earth system. Pushing towards sustainability at a point where the crisis has not yet materialized implies a specific and new role for science in managing global dynamics. Organizing a deep transformation towards sustainability avoiding significant crises driven by Earth system changes would be a cultural learning process – a civilizational shift.





What are the effects of growing multipolarity for global governance processes?



To start optimistically, I would argue that in contrast to historical situations in which this kind of tectonic power shifts led to conflicts or even wars, the current situation is different. The world is highly interconnected and economic interdependencies are stronger than ever. Charles Kupchan is differentiating between "war", "cold peace" and "warm peace". I think that a big "war" is not very probable, and "cold peace" is what we are in actually. "Warm peace" would be cooperative global governance: we identify our problems, have a joint problem analysis, and subsequently start acting cooperatively on them. But this does not describe the contemporary situation. While there are no severe global conflicts, we do not solve many of the global interdependency problems.



There are many barriers to global cooperation and I would like to mention two or three of those. The first one consists of power conflicts and power struggles. Hopefully realists such as John Mearsheimer are not right in claiming that "a peaceful rise of China is not possible". But the fundamental point remains that the re-organization and shuffling of power resources is rendering cooperation extremely difficult. The second point is that all the important global actors currently have severe domestic challenges to manage. The European countries are coping with the European dept crisis. Similarly, the United States is concerned with financial turbulences and rising social inequalities. China has to keep its annual growth rate of about 8 to 12 per cent and meanwhile stabilize its rapid modernization process. In India, there is still a large group of people suffering from poverty. So, managing that and trying to be a responsible global actor at the same time is not easy at all. In brief, all actors that we would like to see taking on a more responsible role on the global level are overcommitted domestically.



There is consensus among different disciplines on what cooperation is actually about. At the Centre for Global Cooperation Research we did a study on The Behavioural Dimensions of International Cooperation (2013) based on insights of very different disciplines – evolutionary biology, social anthropology, cognitive sciences, psychology, political sciences, behavioral economics – to find out what the basic mechanisms are which help human beings to cooperate at any scale towards global corporation in a world of nine billion people. Finally, we identified seven factors promoting cooperation: trust, communication, joint we-identities, reputation, fairness, enforcement – and reciprocity, which is the most fundamental prerequisite. These factors form an enable environment for cooperation and they are manmade. In contexts, actor constellations, systems, in which these basic mechanisms of cooperation are strong, they help to embed power dynamics, to solve social dilemma problems and to manage interdependencies. In contrast, contexts, actor constellations, and systems in which theses basic mechanisms of cooperation are weak, will be driven mainly by power dynamics and struggles. By looking at these factors one immediately understands why the G20 context is so difficult. We have been able to create and to well establish these factors in our old settings; in the European Union, the Western world, the transatlantic community. But now we are sitting together with new actors rather unknown. The G7/G8 world – the OECD driven and the western driven global economy and global politics – has moved towards G20 since it was acknowledged that one cannot manage any global turbulence without emerging economies. The G20 was created or rather called to meet in 2008, a few days after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers when many feared the collapse of the world's financial markets. Most western economies were highly indebted, whereas the emerging economies, especially China, were holding large currency reserves. From a behavioral perspective we have to invest in these basic factors of cooperation in the G 20 context in order to create the essential preconditions of joint action to solve the big global problems. This represents a long-term project, and unfortunately many of these global problems are highly challenging from the time perspective: a tension derives from the gap between time pressure in many of these areas and the time it probably needs to build up these basic mechanisms of cooperation. In fact, the major feeling is that international cooperation is even weaker now than a decade ago. I usually visualize the current situation of the G20 as a round table with 20 seats but no one is sitting there. Charles Kupchan's "No one's world" or Ian Bremmer's "The G0 world" deal with the same problem: international cooperation, global governance is currently so difficult, although all these interdependency problems rendered the problem of managing the global commons fully obvious. If you talk to our Foreign Ministers or Finance Ministers or Chancellors and Presidents, they of course all know exactly what is out there in terms of globalization impacts. But organizing the necessary global consensus and the governance and cooperation structures is tremendously difficult.





How far is the discipline of development research affected by global change?



This is a complex question, to which I do not have a definite answer. The whole field of development research is currently about to get redefined. In the past, the concept of development was clear: On the one side, there was the developed world, the OECD-world, consisting of 35-40 countries and on the other side, the "underdeveloped" part of the world, all other countries. Understanding the differences between developed and developing, along with thinking about the basic drivers of modernization and wealth creation in less developed countries was at the core of development research for a long period. How can poor countries become rich and as developed as OECD countries already are?



Today, it is highly questionable if even the broader categories of "development research" still serve to analyze the new realities. Do we currently still need "development economists", and how would they differ from classical "economists" doing research in those European countries suffering most from the debt crisis, high unemployment and weak institutions? Situations in many OECD countries nowadays look like what one would expect from a still developing or emerging economy, and the other way around. So, what distinguishes development research? This is an important question. Studying non-OECD countries, do we still need development research based governance theories or democratization theories – thus, theories that are systematically different from those we apply in our research on OECD countries? The discipline of development research is under immense pressure. This debate is linked to the second wave of global change we talked about: the post-western world order, emerging economies catching up, convergence trends in the global economy.



If you look at the role of international technology transfer, the same scenario arises: the North-South, donor-recipient categories have dissolved. Technology transfer has lost its distinct direction, and it is much more reciprocal and diffuse than it used to be. There are several studies currently pointing to the fact that investment rates in R&D and in technology creation are growing fast in several regions around the globe, whereas in many OECD-countries, investment is stagnating, or even decreasing. The whole map of knowledge, if you like to say so, is about to undergo deep changes. This implies that the common assumption that knowledge is based in OECD countries and transferred to the South via development cooperation is just not working any longer. We need new patterns of cooperation between different countries in this area. And we need research on global development dynamics which will be different from classical development research which has been based on the assumption of a systemic North-South divide for a long time.







How do institutions such as the World Bank react to the emerging and redefined agenda of development?



The current reorientation of the World Bank as a Knowledge Bank originates from the assumption that knowledge is just as important as money for global development. The second point is that more and more of their partners in non-OECD countries, classical developing and emerging economies, are more and more interested in the knowledge pools of the World Bank and less in their experts. And: dynamic developing countries and emerging economies are even more interested in investments in their own knowledge systems and joint knowledge creation with the World Bank. The old North-South knowledge transfer model is eroding. You might say that there currently are two contradictory global trends: on the one hand via social media and the Internet, knowledge is being widely distributed – broader than ever before and actually, theoretically accessible at any point in the world –, on the other hand the proliferation of knowledge is accompanied with access restriction and control, and the growing privatization of knowledge. Aiming to play a constructive role in collaborative knowledge generation, the World Bank invests a lot in building up freely accessible data bases and open research tools, including the provision of governance or development indicators of any kind. However, this is a difficult process that is developing slowly.



The World Bank is currently undergoing several basic re-orientations. The structures inside of the World Bank are about to become less hierarchical and more horizontal. Originally, the World Bank has been a much more western dominated organization as the Bretton Woods institutions were formed by the United States and its allies. If you look into the governance structures of the World Bank today, it is still largely dominated by OECD countries, but you can notice that this is changing. It is a global organization but 90 % of people working there have been studying at Anglo-Saxon universities. Actors especially from emerging economies have been criticizing that for long, claiming that the World Bank as a global organization should have to be represented by a global citizenship. Although this had slowly started to change already, all the knowledge and all the qualification procedures still remained very western dominated. So they asked the World Bank to diversify its partner structures, to reach out and cooperate with research institutions from around the world. This is what the World Bank is trying to do at the moment, which is really a break with its culture. Because even though the World Bank is a global organization, it has always been a very inward-looking organization. The World Bank was strong, with fantastic professionals and researchers inside, but without cooperating tools. Now they are trying to broaden their cooperation structures and to learn from and together with other institutions.





What are the opportunities and difficulties of big data analysis for global development?



Access to any kind of data is important for any kind of knowledge creation. It has been very limited for many developing countries over a very long time. So, thinking about how to assure access to serious data is significant. This would be my first point. My second point is that, when it comes to big data and the question of managing large amounts of indicators on, for example, cross-country or cross-sector modeling, I think the new technologies are opening up new research possibilities and opportunities. Big data provides the opportunity to identify patterns. Looking for similar dynamics in very different systems is a very interesting exercise, because you get deeper insights into the basic dynamics of systems. This is what I have learned from my colleague Nakicenovic, whom I have mentioned before, and who is working on the Global Energy Assessment, or from Juergen Kurths, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who is studying basic structures and dynamics of very different complex systems like air traffic networks, global infrastructures and social media networks. Managing big data allows you to see patterns which cannot be seen if you only work with case studies. However, to understand the dynamics of countries and sectors, new actor constellations or communities, you need to go into detail and in this specific moment, big data is only the starting point, the background: you also need qualified, serious, very often qualitative data on the ground. Big data and qualified, specific data: they complement each other.



For sure, an important aspect of big data is that for the most part, it is gathered and stored by private businesses. We started this interview talking about global commons and we actually just defined a global commons: data on development should be a global commons, and we need standards and rules of managing those. Private actors could play a role, but within a set of rules defined by societies and policies, and not the private business sector.









Dirk Messner is the Director of the "German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)" since 2003 and teaches at the Institute of Political Science, University of Duisburg-Essen. He is Co-Director of the "Käte Hamburger Kolleg / Centre for Global Cooperation Research (KHK/GCR)", University Duisburg-Essen, which was established in 2012. He furthermore is Co-Chair of the "German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)", member of the "China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development", member of the "Global Knowledge Advisory Commission" of the World Bank and member of the "European Commission's Scientific Advisory Board for EU development policy". Dirk Messner's research interests and work areas include globalisation and global governance, climate change, transformation towards low carbon economies, and development policy. He directed many international research programs and thus created a close international research network.



related links:


Profile at German Development Institute
Messner, Dirk / Guarín, Alejandro / Haun, Daniel (eds.) (2013): The Behavioural Dimensions of International Cooperation, Global Cooperation Research Papers 1, Centre for Global Cooperation Research (pdf)


Read Jing Gu, John Humphrey, and Dirk Messner's (2007) Global Governance and Developing Countries: The Implications of the Rise of China here (pdf)


Messner, Dirk (2007): The European Union: Protagonist in a
Multilateral World Order or Peripheral Power
in the »Asia-Pacific« Century? (pdf)


Print version of this Talk (pdf)

As President Biden's first term draws to a close, his foreign policy record, particularly in the tumultuous Middle East, is marked by a series of major missteps. His handling of the Gaza conflict, where he has failed to exert meaningful pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war, has drawn widespread criticism. Additionally, his attempts to advance the Abraham Accords with Saudi Arabia have stagnated and failed to spur regional stability. However, it is Biden's approach to Iran that stands out as particularly self-defeating. Despite campaign promises to reinstate the 2015 nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) and reduce tensions with the longstanding U.S. adversary, his administration's policies have left the U.S. grappling with an even more formidable Iranian challenge than at the start of his term.Biden's mishandling of Iran is central to his Middle Eastern policy failures. Had he chosen not to continue the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, characterized by unprecedented sanctions aimed at collapsing the Iranian economy, the Middle East might not be in its current state of turmoil. The ripple effects of Trump's decision to withdraw from the JCPOA in 2018, for which we now mark the 6-year anniversary, have been disastrous for U.S. strategic interests, leaving America and its regional allies in a markedly weaker position.Trump and his hawkish advisers, including Mike Pompeo and John Bolton, believed that by leveraging all U.S. instruments of power, short of an all-out military confrontation and invasion of Iran, they could coerce the Iranian government into capitulation or even precipitate its collapse. They expected Iran to acquiesce to Pompeo's sweeping demands, which essentially called for Iran to cave on all its foreign policy and national security strategies and its defense capabilities, or, ideally, that the Islamic Republic would simply crumble under the immense sanctions designed to blockade its economy and reduce its oil exports — the backbone of its economy — to zero.However, Trump's Iran policy was a resounding failure. By the time Trump left office, the Islamic Republic not only survived but had also significantly expanded its nuclear program. Despite the economic "shock" induced by sanctions, Iran succeeded in stabilizing its economy, albeit at a significant cost to the livelihoods of ordinary Iranians. Moreover, Iran retaliated against U.S. interests in the region, escalating the costs of America's regime-change agenda. These actions encompassed unprecedented missile strikes on Saudi Aramco in September 2019 and subsequent attacks on a U.S. military base in Iraq following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Iran and its allies also targeted U.S. interests in Iraq and disrupted shipping in the Persian Gulf.Iran has sent an unambiguous message that U.S. attempts to isolate or destabilize it will not be without consequences. Washington's aspiration to establish a Middle East under its strategic domination, characterized by compliant authoritarian Arab regimes allied with an expansionist Israel, has proven elusive, largely due to Iran's role as a spoiler. For instance, regional U.S. allies, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, transitioned from confrontation to engagement with Iran as Trump's term concluded, driven by the costs of maximum pressure for their security. This shift towards diplomacy and accommodation of Iran has gained momentum recently, drawing in additional regional states and figures, such as the leader of the Kurdish regional government in Iraq, who displayed a starkly conciliatory stance towards Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a recent visit.It is therefore baffling why Biden opted to continue Trump's failed and self-defeating policies. Upon assuming office, Biden had a golden opportunity to swiftly reenter the JCPOA. In January 2021, a group of foreign policy and arms control experts recommended that the administration immediately reinstate U.S. compliance with the JCPOA through an executive order, akin to his actions with the Paris Climate Accords. Over 150 Democratic members of Congress also called on Biden to return to the deal without preconditions.However, not unlike his predecessor, Biden proceeded with an approach characterized by overconfidence. During his 2020 campaign, Biden said that "If Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations." He placed the burden on Iran to return to the deal first, despite the U.S. being the initial violator and bearing the responsibility of rebuilding trust.In the crucial early months of his administration, Biden's advisers conveyed the wrong messages to Tehran. Rather than signaling a readiness to rectify Washington's initial breach of the JCPOA, they implied that they viewed Trump's maximum pressure as leverage they were reluctant to abandon, seeking further concessions from Iran for a return to the JCPOA.Secretary of State Antony Blinken said early on that Iran must first comply with the JCPOA before the U.S. would consider sanctions relief and pursue a "longer and stronger agreement" demanding additional concessions from Iran regarding regional issues and its missile program, a vital component of Iran's defense. Similarly, Avril Haines, during her confirmation hearing to become Director of National Intelligence, remarked that rejoining the JCPOA was a distant prospect and that ballistic missile concerns would also need to be addressed. These sentiments were echoed by Biden's press secretary, Jen Psaki, who emphasized the administration's goal to extend and reinforce nuclear constraints on Iran and address other areas of concern, contingent on Iran's compliance.These statements sent the wrong signals to Tehran, reinforcing the Iranian perception that the U.S. is not a reliable partner and that striking a deal would not be worthwhile. The Iranians have consistently faced disappointment in negotiations with the U.S. going back decades, with former President Hassan Rouhani being the latest Iranian leader to broker a deal, only to encounter U.S. backtracking, which weakened Iran's reformist-moderate and Western-oriented political factions.Biden's erroneous belief that Trump's "maximum pressure" provided leverage — a notion that led to the expectation of Iran's full compliance before the U.S. would honor its commitments — was a grave error. He missed the opportunity to negotiate with Rouhani government and secure a revival of the JCPOA while it was in power, instead aiming for additional Iranian concessions.By the time negotiations commenced in April 2021, Israel also escalated efforts to sabotage them. An explosion at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility coincided with the resumption of talks, prompting Ayatollah Khamenei to authorize an increase in uranium enrichment to 60%, nearing weapons-grade levels. Amidst these challenges, Biden pursued talks in Vienna, but the Iranians at this point sought more concessions themselves, including confirmation of sanctions removal before agreeing to dismantle their nuclear program, and guarantees that the U.S. would adhere to the deal.By June 2021, Rouhani and his foreign minister Javad Zarif, proponents of détente with the West, were ousted from office, and Iranian conservative forces deeply distrustful of Washington assumed control of the presidency and major governing institutions. This led to 15 months of fruitless negotiations, with Iran's lack of confidence in Washington's long-term commitment to the agreement being the central issue.Today, the landscape is starkly different from 2015. Iran has advanced its nuclear capabilities and reduced its economic dependency on oil, showcasing resilience against sanctions. The regional and global perception is that Iran has effectively managed to withstand U.S. pressures while advancing its strategic interests. Moreover, the prospect of Iran still viewing its nuclear program as a bargaining chip for accommodation by the West seems increasingly unlikely, as it has pivoted to deepening ties with Russia and China and faces rising domestic pressures for weaponizing its nuclear program.Ultimately, the Biden administration's decision to uphold the Trump-era maximum pressure campaign has proven ineffective in deterring Iran's nuclear program and has further closed off avenues for diplomacy. This approach has perpetuated the belief that positive actions will not result in the removal of U.S. sanctions on adversarial nations.The U.S. inconsistency in honoring agreements has fostered a harmful incentive structure for its adversaries. Skeptical of America's commitment reliability, these adversaries choose to counter escalate, as evidenced by Iran's actions in recent years and North Korea's continued development of its missile capabilities. This situation highlights a significant weakness in U.S. foreign policy: internal political dynamics and strategic errors impede conflict prevention with countries like Iran. The challenge ahead with Iran involves not only reaching a fairer agreement but also upholding the credibility and consistency necessary to ensure its longevity and effectiveness.

From the introduction: For more than two decades, scientific and political communities have debated whether and how to act on climate change. This discussion moved on. Today science is very clear about the magnitude of the risks imposed by unmanaged climate change: 'What we are doing is redifining where people could live and if we do that as a world than hundreds of million of people will move. Probably billions will move. We are talking about gambling the planet, we are talking about a radical change of the way in which human beings could live and where they could live and, indeed, how many of them." With regard to these risks the application of the precautionary principle telling us 'to better be safe than sorry" appears to be imperative and makes traditional cost-benefit analysis become obsolete. Thus combating global warming has become one of the most important issues facing the world in the 21. century. As nobody would be immune from the transformation the planet faces, avoiding this gamble should, in theory, be in the interest of all nations. Unfortunately, a common response in the scale necessary is hard to organize. While the industrialized countries fear the costs of the transformation from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy, it is the poorest people who are facing a double unequity as they 1. will be hit earliest and hardest by the adverse impacts of climate change, and 2. are least responsible for the stock of current concentrations in the atmosphere. This inequity consequently leads to a great sense of injustice in developing countries being asked cut emission, while knowing, that the developed world got rich on high-carbon growth. Without any doubt the outcome of this is a historical responsibility of industrialized countries to take over leadership in reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases. However, bearing in mind that by 2050, approximately eight out of nine billion people in the world will be living in developing nations, it is impossible to get down to emission levels needed without at the same time covering the developing world as well. Against this background international climate protection is a sociopolitical, economical, and ethical challenge, concerning all nations, which have to understand that they are a community based on the principle of mutual solidarity. The international climate regime is regarded as the main platform to further cooperation between nations in order to succesfully combat global warming. Ever since the first world climate conference in 1979 the international community of states pursues the goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions in the medium-term, before finally reducing them in the long-term. In the end of 2009 and 2010, the 15th and 16th Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) aimed at achieving the final breakthrough with regard to framing new long-term mitigation commitments necessary in the scale needed to assure that global warming will not exceed 2° C above preindustrial levels; the line of demarcation from which on climate change is supposedly irreversible. Going from this initial situation this thesis will try to determine the driving-forces of the climate regime and research if the regime theory is a capable tool to explain them. In the following chapter it will be started by highlighting the scientific and economic consequences of anthropogenic climate change to amplify, why there is such an urgent need to fight global warming. Thereafter part three is going to deal with the regime theory. After presenting its interest-based, power-based, and knowledge-based school, these different approaches will, in a second step, be applied to the issue area of climate change. Basing on this analysis it is possible to hypothesize on how actors are supposed to behave within the regime. Due to the fact, that this thesis has a limited volume it will be focused on the three actors, which are regarded as not only most important for the regime's success but also possess the biggest influence within the international community, namely the United States, China, and the European Union. Thereby it will be strongly concentrated on the role of the United States. Understanding this role within the international climate regime is considered as absolutely central since the absolute emissions of the US surpass - with the exception of China - those of any other country and its per capita emissions are also amongst the highest in the world. As a result the US although containing just around one-twentieth of the world's population produce almost one-fifth of the world's total emissions of greenhouse gases. Being the world's largest economy the US moreover not only has considerable financial resources which could be directed to environmental problems abroad, but also a technological capability with huge mitigation potentials. Consequently there is a great chance that a possible decision of the US to take a leading role on addressing climate change would set an example that other countries would follow. On the other hand the rest of the world, and here especially developing countries, such as China or India, very likely will not agree to needed actions either, if the US chooses to reject such a leader-role. Therefore it is often spoken of a 'moral duty' of the US to take the lead in the response towards global warming, a duty which is amplified by the fact that the US alone is historically responsible for almost 30% of the total concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. While the EU has recognized its responsibility for anthropogenic climate change and implemented, as the first region worldwide, a comprehensive and demanding programme to fight the greenhouse effect, China's participation and cooperation in the climate change regime is particularly important for two reasons. First, China's impact on climate change is forecasted to be enormous: China's large population, rapid economic growth and heavy reliance on fossil fuels collectively imply large increases in CO2 emissions and thereby a disproportionate influence on climate change. The fourth part is divided in three sections. Since in isolation from its historical and institutional antecedents the global climate regime and the challenges it currently faces, cannot be properly understood, the first section will take a closer look at the current regime, which is founded on the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on climate change and supplemented by its 1997 Kyoto-Protocol. In this context special attention will be given to the exit of the US from the Kyoto process as the slow progress in the international climate negotiations from that point on was mainly triggered by the reluctance of the US to endorse the Kyoto approach. The second section focuses on the main priorities of the actors within climate negotiations, which are in turn highly affected by their energy political situation. The negotiations in Copenhagen and to a minor extent in Cancun will from this basis offer valuable clues to the question to which extent the actors have been able to convert their interests within the regime. In the final part it will be possible to draw a conclusion regarding the driving-forces of the regime and how they affect its effectiveness and robustness. After giving a compressed outlook on potential future driving-forces an assumption will be issued whether the hypotheses developed in the third part can be coroborated as valid.Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents 1.Introduction1 2.Scientific and economic consequences of anthropogenic climate change4 2.1.The natural and anthropogenic greenhouse effect4 2.1.1.The IPCC and its 4th Assessment Report6 2.1.2.The Stern Review and the economics of climate change10 3.The regime theory14 3.1.Three schools of thought within the theory of international regimes15 3.1.1.The interest-based approach15 3.1.1.1.Two-level games19 3.1.2.The power-based approach21 3.1.3.The knowledge-based approach23 3.2.Application of the three approaches to the issue are of climate change25 4.The issue area of climate change33 4.1.The current climate regime33 4.1.1.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change34 4.1.2.The Kyoto Protocol35 4.1.2.1.The exit of the United States38 4.1.2.2.Basic weaknesses of the Kyoto Protocol41 4.1.3.The Bali Action Plan42 4.2.Prorities of the main actors42 4.2.1.The United States of America44 4.2.1.1.Obama's new climate policy46 4.2.2.China48 4.2.2.1.China's plead for consumption-based inventories54 4.3.International negotiations for a post-2012 agreement in Copenhagen and Cancun58 5.Analysis of the driving-forces in the climate regime64 5.1.The effectiveness and robustness of the climate regime64 5.2.Analysis of the driving-forces with regard to the effectiveness of the international climate regime65 5.2.1.Analysis of the current climate regime65 5.2.2.Analysis of the negotiations for a post-2012 climate regime67 5.2.3.Outlook regarding the regime's potential future driving-forces75 5.2.3.1.A shift in Obama's political priority setting75 5.2.3.2.Developments at the state and local level in the US77 5.2.3.2.1.The ballot on Propostion 23 in California82 5.3.Conclusion83 References90 Table of figures Figure 1:Development of global annual average temperature and CO2-concentrations5 Figure 2: Examples of impacts associated with global average temperature change8 Figure 3: Example of a payoff matrix in the Prisoner's Dilemma17 Figure 4: Example of a payoff matriv in the Battle of the Sexes22 Figure 5: Classification of a country's support for international environmental regulations27 Figure 6: Types of domestic political interest28 Figure 7: Targets of the Kyoto Protocol and actual reductions39 Figure 8: Coal producing states in the US44 Figure 9: Cross-party voting on the ACES in the House of Representatives45 Figure 10: Total energy consumption in China, by type (2008)49 Figure 11: China's exports and CO2-emissions since 200256 Figure 12: C02-emissions from China's net exports in 2004 in comparison with total emissions from China and other countries57 Figure 13: Renewable alternative portfolio standards in the US79 Figure 14: Regional cap and trade programs in the US80 Figure 15: Total global investments in clean energy in $ bn from 2004 to 201085 Appendixes Appendix 1: World carbon dioxide emissions by region107 Appendix 2: National reduction targets in the Non-ETS-Sector in the EU108 Appendix 3: Global carbon dioxide emissions from coal use in million metric tons, by region from 2005 to 2035109 Appendix 4: Global carbon dioxide emissions in million metric tons, by regionfrom 2005 to 2035110 Appendix 5: Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in metric tons per person, by region and country from 2005 to 2035111 Appendix 6: China's coal deposits and major railway infrastructure112 Appendix 7: Copenhagen Accord emission mitigation goals of selected countries113 Appendix 8: New constructions of coal-fired power plants in Germany114 Appendix 9: World nuclear enery consumption, by region from 2005 to 2035115 Appendix 10: Transcript - Interview: Nicholas Stern116 Appendix 11: Transcript - Interview: Hermann Ott.120 Appendix 12: Transcript - Interview: Steve Kretzmann120Textprobe:Text Sample: Chapter 3., The regime theory: The regime theory originated in the late seventies initially in the United States. It searched for answers to challenges in a time when especially crude oil induced shocks in industrial countries have plastically shown the practical consequences of the grown interdependency of economies. So the American study of regimes first and foremost concentrated on the field of the international political economy and was trying to ensure a better understanding of international cooperation. At the same time another phenomenom occured, namely the significant increase in the numbers of international governmental and non-governmental organisations, while the dominance of the United States in the world politics declined. This was a surprising development as, according to the at this time predominant approach of neorealism, international institutions like GATT or the IMF were supposed to become ineffective as a result of the US loosing its status as a global hegemon. To primarily get a better understanding of what international regimes actually are it is useful to study them as social institutions. By means of separating international regimes from international organisations, which are likewise social institutions, two of their main criteria - besides fulfilling the criteria of durability - become especially apparent: In contrast to international organisations, which often have an effect across problems, international regimes always refer to a specific problem area of international politics, like the protection of the ozon layer, trade liberalisations or the problem of climate change, While international organisations can act as cooperative actors, international regimes lack this attribute. In the following it will be concentrated on the interest-based, power-based and knowledge based approach to explain the emergence and characteristics of international regimes. The main focus of attention will be put on the work of Robert Keohane, who produced the most elaborate and also most widely discussed neoliberal approach. While Keohane's formulation had such a strong influence that it has been widely equated with 'regime theory' as such, the neoliberal school of thought, whose overriding emphasis has been on showing the role of international regimes in helping states to realize common interests, has come to represent the mainstream approach analyzing international regimes. Keohane's theory will be complement by Putnams theory of the two-level-games to factor in domestic influences on the interests of states in international negotiations. Thereafter not only the main criticisms of the neorealist school regarding the neoliberal theory will be pointed out, but also the cognitivist perspective will be shown. Hereby it will concentrate on the branch of weak cognitivism that regards the demand for regimes in international relations as depending on the actors' perception of international problems, which in turn are - e.g. in the case of environmental problems - heavily influenced by the information provided by scientists and so called epistemic communities. The cognitive perspective distinguishes itself from the other two approaches since it is the only one, which does not have a rational but sociological meta-theoretical orientation and is another useful complementation of Keohane's regime theory. While none of the present approaches denies regimes any impact, the degree of institutionalism varies considerably, what not least has something to do with the behavioural models on which neoliberals, realists and cognitivists base their analyses. 3.1, Three schools of thought within the theory of international regime: 3.1.1, The interest-based approach: The interest-based theory attributes international institutions a significant role in international politics and therefore dealt critically with the approach of neorealism, which during the first quarter century after WWII has been predominant in the international relations. Neoliberal and realist theories of international regimes though share their commitment to rationalism, which assumes that states, which act in anarchic structures are the most important actors in international politics. By following selfishly defined interests to maximize own profits they behave as rational egoists for whom altruistism never is a motivating force. Compliance to international rules and norms is according to rationalists not a result of a moral obligaion but of a situation where own short-term gains fail to outweigh own losses in the long-run. In contrast to neorealism the interest-based approach consequently stresses, that stable international cooperation is possible even beyond hegemonic power structures, when cooperation is due to increasing interdependent relations beyond national borders in the common interest of all involved states. Since the actions of a player in a field are driven by its interests and every player behaves as a utility maximizer problematic acting interdependencies might emerge, in which a better collective result can solely be reached through cooperation. A need for cooperation is typical for the utilization of global collective goods, which once provided can be used by everyone not only by its providers but also by free-riders, namely states not contributing to make the good available. This is a situation, entitled by Garrett Hardin as the 'tragedy of the commons", that entails two major problems. 1. unless it happens to produce significant side-effects in the form of private goods an individual actor, contemplating whether to contribute to the collective good or not, most likely won't find a unilateral effort that will pay off, and 2. concerning the collective good itself, the smaller the actor the more its own benefit-cost ratio for unilateral efforts will negatively deviate from that of the world. Although in this constellation players have a common interest in securing the common good, cooperation seems very unlikely since each player will regard it as irrational.