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In recent months, Israeli officials have gotten into the habit of equating Hamas with ISIS. This framing has obvious benefits for Israel, which hopes to garner global sympathy by comparing its enemy to a group widely viewed as the pinnacle of early 21st century evil.But it also leads to a thorny question. If Hamas is indeed as bad as the Islamic State, then why should its leaders continue to find shelter in multiple Arab states?In the case of Qatar, where Hamas's political leaders have been based since 2012, the answer is pragmatic. Israel needs a reliable mediator in order to reach a deal for the return of Hamas-held hostages. Doha has already shown its worth by facilitating talks that secured the release of 105 hostages during a week-long ceasefire in November.But that arrangement may have an expiration date. Israeli security officials have threatened to kill Hamas leaders wherever they are, even if that means an attack on Qatari soil. More moderate Israeli voices argue that Doha's arrangement with Hamas simply can't last."The United States and Israel still need to lean on Doha to use its leverage with Hamas to achieve some essential wins — even if Qatar must ultimately cut ties with the organization," Yoel Guzansky, a former Israeli security official, recently wrote in Foreign Affairs.As wars rage in Gaza and Ukraine, neutral states are coming under increasing pressure to pick a side. Switzerland, once thought of as the prototypical global referee, has joined sanctions on the Kremlin and even closed its airspace to Russian planes. Finland has joined the NATO alliance, and Sweden could follow suit by the summer. Qatar — long seen as the ideal Israel-Hamas mediator — may soon have to pick between its American patron and the Palestinian militant group.This is natural to some extent. When it comes to neutrality, war is where the proverbial rubber hits the road. Belligerents almost always view their conflict in terms of true good vs. total evil, a framing that neutral states call into question by their very existence."Under just war theory, neutrality is not possible," said Pascal Lottaz, a professor at Kyoto University and an expert on neutrality. "Whenever good fights evil, not fighting evil is equal to being evil."Yet war-fighting states have long leaned on neutrals as mediators, especially when military force shows limited chances of success. So what happens if the neutrals disappear?Switzerland by any other nameIn some ways, Qatar came upon neutrality by accident. The tiny Gulf state was seen as a Saudi dependent until the mid-1990s, when it embarked on an ambitious plan to protect its security by making friends with just about every other country in its fractious region.
A few years into this project, Doha realized that it now had a significant competitive advantage. "It allowed them to be strategically positioned to act as a conduit between actors that didn't otherwise talk to each other," said Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University Qatar. Pragmatic as they are, Qatari officials played to their strengths and started to pitch themselves as an Arab Switzerland.
By the late 2000s, Doha had already mediated major peace talks in Chad, Sudan, and Yemen. Despite crises stemming from the Arab Spring and a later spat with its Gulf neighbors, Qatar's reputation for neutrality has stuck. Its diplomats have led high-profile talks between the U.S. and its most bitter enemies and even helped secure the release of Ukrainian children taken to Russia.
Of course, Doha isn't neutral in the traditional sense. For states like Switzerland and Austria, neutrality is a formal commitment to stay out of the fighting that allows them to preserve their security without going to war, according to Lottaz. The arrangement is passive: If you don't mess with me, then I won't mess with you.
Qatar's version of neutrality is both less formal and more ambitious. Like traditional neutrals, Doha's primary goal is to stay out of danger in a conflict-prone region. But a second key objective is to raise Qatar's profile such that the tiny state can have an influence over major geopolitical disputes without losing its independence.
This helps explain why Qatar's highest officials often participate directly in mediation. When Hezbollah threatened to tank negotiations during a Lebanese political crisis in 2009, the emir personally called Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and asked him to pressure his ally to break the deadlock.
This type of neutrality relies on a stream of diplomatic fictions. Yes, Qatar has a major U.S. military base on its territory, but that doesn't make it a member of the Western bloc. Yes, Qatar hosted Taliban leaders, but that doesn't make it an Islamist ally. In a black and white world, Doha is infuriatingly gray.
In practice, Qatar takes every chance it gets to build geopolitical leverage, backstopped by the country's seemingly endless supply of liquid natural gas. This brings us to Doha's relationship with Hamas.
Qatari officials say they invited Hamas's political leaders to Doha in 2012 at the behest of the Obama administration, shortly after the militant group fled from Syria amid tensions with Assad. (The earliest Hamas-Doha ties date to 2006, when the Bush administration asked Qatar to open communication channels with the group.) Qatar jumped at the opportunity to both improve ties with the U.S. and improve its competitive advantage as a mediator. But that wasn't enough to shield the Gulf state from criticism after the Oct. 7 attacks.
U.S. officials undermined Qatar in the days following the attack by pulling out of a Doha-mediated deal through which Iran got access to billions of dollars in frozen assets following a U.S.-Iran prisoner swap. Hawkish voices in Congress and the American press also leaped to condemn Doha for supporting Hamas, using as evidence Qatar's policy of paying civil servants in Gaza (with Israel's approval).
Andreas Krieg, a security studies professor at King's College London, says this is mostly bluster. He describes the rhetorical pressure on Qatar as little more than a "circus in Washington to be seen as being supportive of Israel no matter what." The U.S., Krieg says, has not taken any concrete steps to pressure Qatar on this front. Rather, Washington has given Doha extra leeway to pursue talks. And even if Hamas is somehow destroyed by the war, Qatar will be a prime candidate to mediate with whatever new Islamist movement takes its place, Krieg argues.
Only time will tell. Qatari neutrality could face a deep crisis if Israel follows through on its pledge to hunt down Hamas leaders "in every location." But Qatar is nothing if not pragmatic, and Kamrava of Georgetown predicts that Doha's leadership would gladly assent to kicking out Hamas leaders if it meant strengthening ties with the U.S., the most powerful state over which it has significant leverage.The question we're left with is whether this is good for America. Mohamad Bazzi of New York University argues that it's not. "[I]t would be a mistake to force Hamas leaders out of Qatar," Bazzi wrote in a recent op-ed. "[T]hey would probably go to Iran, Lebanon or Syria – and Israel, the US and Europe would have a harder time negotiating with them indirectly." In other words, kicking Hamas out of Qatar would likely make one of the world's most complex conflicts that much more intractable.Cold wars and hot peaceQatar's problems are a microcosm of trends playing out across the world today. The UAE and Turkey have brokered major deals between Russia and Ukraine — deals that less independent states could never have pulled off — and the West have largely repaid them with sanctions and condemnation.
To some extent, it should come as little surprise that powerful states balk at neutrality. "It's usually the stronger party of the two belligerents that will put more pressure on the neutrals," Lottaz said. "The weaker one, the one that has more to lose, usually has more to gain from keeping others neutral."
He points to the Ukraine conflict as a case in point. The U.S. and its allies condemn neutrality toward the war both on moral grounds and because they see their side as stronger. Russia, for its part, knows that it can benefit more from states remaining neutral than it ever could from its allies voicing their support for Russian policy.
Some states have managed to dodge angry powers by keeping a low profile, as in the case of Oman, a rarely mentioned Gulf state that played a crucial role in the talks leading up to the Iran nuclear deal in 2015. But quieter neutrals are not exactly quick to get involved in intractable conflicts that don't affect their vital interests, leaving them outside of most issues entirely.
Qatar, by contrast, seems to revel in the chance to take on well-known conflicts, even when — as in Israel-Palestine — the chances of success are limited. Neutral states, Lottaz reminds us, are intimately involved in the causes they mediate. To the extent that Doha views its mediator image as crucial for its security, it will aggressively seek out leverage points in every conflict it can.
This worked reasonably well when the U.S. was the only true great power on the world stage. But aggressive neutrality is a tougher sell today as Washington has come to view its ties with both Moscow and Beijing in increasingly zero-sum terms. The dawn of a new cold war has given states some room to balance these powers against each other, but the space for forceful independence — especially for smaller states like Qatar — has begun to shrink. A few hot wars have certainly not helped.
So is neutrality dying? It's tough to say for sure. But it's hard to shake the feeling that powerful states will miss it when it's gone.

Mit Beginn der mitteleuropäischen Landwirtschaft im Neolithikum entstanden durch den Menschen geformte Agrarlandschaften, welche bis heute durch den Anbau von Kulturfrüchten und Grünlandwirtschaft zur Viehhaltung geprägt sind. In diesen traditionell extensiv bewirtschafteten Nutzflächen hat eine Vielzahl von Tier- und Pflanzenarten einen Lebensraum gefunden. Mit der Industrialisierung der Landwirtschaft seit der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts ging jedoch eine intensivierte Nutzung von Agrarflächen einher (insbesondere durch den Einsatz von synthetischen Dünge- und Pflanzenschutzmitteln). Dies wiederum führte zu einem Rückgang der Artenvielfalt in europäischen Agrarlandschaften innerhalb der letzten 50 bis 60 Jahre. Die Ackerbegleitflora, welche überwiegend aus konkurrenzschwachen Pflanzenarten besteht, wurde besonders negativ von den intensivierten ackerbaulichen Nutzungspraktiken beeinflusst. Der Erhalt einer reichhaltigen Ackerbegleitflora ist jedoch essenziell, da diese ein wichtiges Fundament der Nahrungskette in Agrarökosystemen darstellt (u.a. als Nahrungsquelle für viele Insekten und Agrarvögel) und somit auch wichtig für den Erhalt bedeutender Ökosystemfunktionen ist. Unterschiedliche Schutzbestrebungen, wie etwa die Einführung von Agrarumweltmaßnahmen durch die Europäische Union, konnten den fortschreitenden Verlust der Ackerbegleitflora in weiten Teilen der hauptsächlich konventionell bewirtschafteten Agrarflächen Europas bislang nicht aufhalten. Es besteht daher noch weiterer Forschungsbedarf hinsichtlich der Faktoren, welche die Ackerwildkrautdiversität in konventionell bewirtschafteten Feldern derzeit bestimmen (insbesondere unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Kulturfrüchte und des Landschaftskontextes) und der spezifischen Maßnahmen, die der fortschreitenden Verarmung der Ackerbegleitflora effektiv entgegenwirken können. Darüber hinaus unterscheiden sich derzeit durchgeführte Erhebungen der Ackervegetation zum Teil erheblich in der zugrundeliegenden Methodik, was eine verlässliche, überregionale Bewertung des Erhaltungszustandes der Ackerbegleitflora und möglicher Effekte von Schutzmaßnahmen schwierig macht. Hierfür ist die Definition eines geeigneten Standard-Ackerwildkraut-Monitoring-Ansatzes notwendig. Basierend auf dem oben genannten Forschungsbedarf widmet sich die vorliegende Abschlussarbeit den nachfolgenden Forschungsthemen: Durch die Untersuchung von insgesamt 200 konventionell bewirtschafteten Ackerschlägen stellt Kapitel 2 den aktuellen Zustand der Ackerbegleitflora dar (Artenreichtum, Abundanz und Zusammensetzung) und überprüft, welche Faktoren (Position im Ackerschlag, angebaute Kulturfrucht, Bewirtschaftungsregime, edaphische und landschaftsbezogene Standortbedingungen) heutzutage einen wesentlichen Einfluss auf die Ackerwildkrautdiversität haben. Kapitel 3 vergleicht die Effekte von vier Agrarumweltmaßnahmen auf die Ackerbegleitflora innerhalb eines zwei- bis dreijährigen Untersuchungszeitraums. Die Maßnahmen wurden auf insgesamt 67 Ackerschlägen umgesetzt und umfassten i) extensiv bewirtschaftete Ackerflächen, ii) einjährige Bracheflächen, iii) alternierend bewirtschaftete, zweijährige Blühstreifen und iv) mehrjährige Blühstreifen. Vor der Umsetzung wurden alle Maßnahmen in Kooperation mit Landwirten und anderen relevanten regionalen Akteuren (z.B. Landwirtschaftsberatern, Jägern, Imkern, Wissenschaftlern, Naturschutzbehörden und -organisationen) angepasst, um ihre Wirksamkeit und Akzeptanz zu erhöhen. Basierend auf insgesamt 45 konventionell bewirtschafteten Ackerschlägen, werden in Kapitel 4 schließlich sechs etablierte oder neu entwickelte Erhebungsmethoden zur Erfassung der Ackerwildkrautdiversität hinsichtlich ihrer Effizienz (erfasste Artenzahl eines Ackerschlages und Zeitaufwand) miteinander verglichen. Die Forschungsarbeiten wurden in der überwiegend konventionell bewirtschafteten Agrarregion der Landkreise Nienburg und Diepholz (Niedersachsen, Nordwestdeutschland) von 2016 bis 2019 durchgeführt. Diese Arbeit konnte zeigen, dass die heutige Ackerwildkrautdiversität konventionell bewirtschafteter Äcker ein historisches Minimum erreicht hat. Das Feldinnere hat dabei fast keine Relevanz mehr als Lebensraum für Ackerwildkräuter (Median-Artenzahl und -Deckung: 2 Arten und 0,5 %) und nennenswerte Vorkommen sind nur am Ackerrand vorzufinden (Median-Artenzahl und -Deckung: 11 Arten und 4 %; Kapitel 2). Die bedeutendsten Faktoren, welche die heutige pflanzliche Diversität im Ackerrandbereich bestimmen, waren die Art der angebauten Kulturfrucht und das Vorhandensein angrenzender Habitate (Feldraine, Gehölzstreifen und Grabenränder). Die heutige Ackerbegleitflora ist stark verarmt und wird von wenigen weit verbreiteten Ackerwildkräutern dominiert, welche fähig sind, das intensive Management zu überdauern. Charakteristische, ehemals mit dem typischen Management der Kulturpflanzenarten oder Bodenfaktoren verbundene Ackerwildkrautgesellschaften sind nicht mehr identifizierbar. Die hier dargestellten Erkenntnisse zur Verarmung der Ackerbegleitflora sind auf einen Großteil des West- und Zentraleuropäischen Ackerlandes übertragbar. Dies zeigt den dringenden Handlungsbedarf seitens der Gemeinsamen Europäischen Agrarpolitik auf, um einer weiteren Verarmung der Ackerbegleitflora, negative Auswirkungen auf abhängige Organismengruppen und der Gefährdung bedeutender Ökosystemleistungen in Agrarlandschaften entgegenzuwirken. Dazu bedarf es der großräumigen Umsetzung von ökologisch effizienten Maßnahmen. Alle vier der im Rahmen dieser Arbeit untersuchten Agrarumweltmaßnahmen zeigten eine vergleichbar positive Wirkung auf die Ackerwildkrautartenvielfalt und -abundanz innerhalb des zwei- bis dreijährigen Untersuchungszeitraumes (Vergleich der Median-Artenzahl und -Deckung aller Maßnahmenflächen mit konventionell bewirtschafteten Ackerrändern bezogen auf den gesamten Untersuchungszeitraum: 21 vs. 9 Arten und 68,5 vs. 9,5 %; Kapitel 3). Um jedoch die Ackerwildkrautdiversität auf längere Sicht zu erhalten, ist die Anlage von extensiv bewirtschafteten Ackerflächen und einjährigen Bracheflächen geeigneter. Alle hier untersuchten Maßnahmen dürften aufgrund ihrer Anpassung an die landwirtschaftliche Praxis in modernen konventionellen Betrieben eine hohe Akzeptanz unter Landwirten aufweisen. Daher werden alle in dieser Arbeit untersuchten Maßnahmen zur Berücksichtigung in nationalen oder internationalen Agrarumweltprogrammen empfohlen. Da heute das Vorkommen vieler typischer, einst weit verbreiteter Ackerwildkräuter auf wenige Ackerflächen beschränkt ist, sollte weiterhin die Einbringung solcher Pflanzenarten über Regio-Saatgut bedacht werden, um die Ackerwildkrautdiversität auf Feldebene zu fördern und das (lokales) Aussterben seltener Arten zu verhindern. Zudem wurde während der Umsetzung der Agrarumweltmaßnahmen festgestellt, dass unterschiedliche Witterungsbedingungen in den Untersuchungsjahren zu signifikant veränderten Artenzahlen und -deckungen der Ackerbegleitflora führen können. Dies verdeutlicht, dass zur verlässlichen Evaluierung von Agrarumweltmaßnahmen ein mehrjähriges Monitoring zwingend notwendig ist. Die Wahl der angewandten Erhebungsmethodik kann hierbei einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf die Monitoring-Ergebnisse haben. So konnte diese Arbeit zeigen, dass die unterschiedlichen derzeit angewandten Erhebungsmethoden zur Erfassung der Ackerwildkrautdiversität zu signifikant unterschiedlichen Ergebnissen hinsichtlich des erfassten Ackerwildkraut-Artenpools in konventionell bewirtschafteten Äckern führen (Kapitel 4). Um die zukünftige Entwicklung der Ackerbegleitflora und die Effektivität von Agrarumweltmaßnahmen im größeren räumlichen und zeitlichen Kontext analysieren zu können, bedarf es daher eines einheitlichen nationalen bzw. internationalen Monitoringsystems, welches idealerweise im Rahmen der Gemeinsamen Europäischen Agrarpolitik implementiert werden sollte. Die vorliegende Arbeit konnte diesbezüglich zeigen, dass ein langgestreckter Plot von 500 × 1 m am Ackerrand eine vielversprechende Methode darstellt, um einen Großteil des Ackerwildkraut-Artenpools in konventionell bewirtschafteten Äckern (Median: 75,6 %) in einer vertretbaren Zeit erfassen zu können (Median: 20 Minuten). Diese Methode wird daher als zukünftiger Standard für das Ackerwildkraut-Monitoring auf konventionellen Ackerschlägen empfohlen. ; With the beginning of Central European agriculture in the Neolithic, man-made landscapes have been created, which are characterized by arable land cultivated with crops and grasslands needed for livestock farming. In these traditionally non-intensively farmed areas, a variety of animal and plant species have found a habitat. However, the industrialization of agriculture since the middle of the 19th century has been accompanied by an intensification of the management regime (in particular through the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides). This, in turn, has led to a strong decline in biodiversity in European agricultural landscapes within the last 50 to 60 years. The arable flora, which consists mainly of competitively weak plant species, has been particularly negatively affected by agricultural intensification. However, the maintenance of a rich arable flora is essential, as it is the basis of the food chain in agroecosystems (e.g. as a food source for many insects and farmland birds) and is therefore also crucial for the preservation of important ecosystem functions. Various conservation approaches, such as the introduction of agri-environment measures by the European Union, have not yet been able to stop the ongoing loss of the arable flora in large parts of Europe's primarily conventionally managed farmland. Thus, further research is needed with respect to the current drivers of the plant diversity in conventionally managed fields (especially considering the effect of crop type and the landscape context) and which specific measures can effectively counteract the continuing impoverishment of the arable flora. In addition, currently conducted arable plant surveys strongly vary in their methodologies, making it difficult to reliably assess the conservation status of the arable flora and possible effects of conservation measures on a supra-regional scale. Here, the definition of a suitable standard arable plant monitoring approach is needed. Based on the above-mentioned research needs, the present thesis is dedicated to the following research topics: Studying 200 conventionally managed arable fields, Chapter 2 shows the current state of the arable flora (species richness, abundance and composition) and investigates which factors (location in the field, cultivated crop, management regime, edaphic and landscape context) have a significant influence on the arable plant diversity. Chapter 3 compares four agri-environment measures with regard to their effect on the arable plant vegetation within a two- to three-year study period. The measures were implemented in 67 arable fields and included i) conservation field margins, ii) annual fallows, iii) alternately managed biennial flower strips and iv) perennial flower strips. Before implementation, all measures were adapted with the participation of farmers and other relevant regional stakeholders (e.g. agricultural advisors, hunters, beekeepers, scientists, conservation authorities and organizations) to increase their effectiveness and acceptance. Based on 45 conventionally managed fields, Chapter 4 finally compares the efficiency (number of species recorded in a field and time required) of six established or newly developed survey methods for the assessment of the arable plant diversity. The research was conducted in the predominantly conventionally managed agricultural region of the districts of Nienburg and Diepholz (Lower Saxony, Northwest Germany) from 2016 to 2019. This thesis shows that the current arable plant diversity of conventionally managed fields has reached a historical minimum. Today, the field interior is of almost no relevance as a habitat for arable plants (median species number and cover: 2 species and 0.5 %) and significant occurrences are only found in the field edge (median species number and cover: 11 species and 4 %; Chapter 2). The most important factors determining contemporary arable plant diversity in the field edge were the crop type and the presence of adjacent habitats (i.e. grass strips, hedges and ditch margins). Today's arable flora is severely impoverished and dominated by few widespread plant species, which are able to cope with the intensive management. Characteristic arable plant communities formerly associated with the specific management of crop types or soil factors are no longer detectable. The findings about the impoverishment of the arable flora presented here are transferable to a large part of Western and Central European farmland. Thus, there is an urgent need for action within the Common Agricultural Policy to counteract a further impoverishment of arable flora, related negative effects on dependent organism groups and the endangerment of important ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. This requires the implementation of ecologically efficient measures on a large scale. The four agri-environment measures investigated in this thesis showed a similar positive effect on the arable plant diversity and abundance within the two- to three-year study period (median number of species and cover across all measures and years compared to conventionally managed field edges: 21 vs. 9 species and 68.5 vs. 9.5 %; Chapter 3). However, in order to preserve the arable plant diversity in the longer term, the establishment of conservation field margins and annual fallows are more suitable. Due to their adaptation for practicability on a modern conventional farm, all agri-environmental measures tested here are expected to have a high acceptance among farmers. Thus, all measures tested are recommended for consideration in national or international agri-environment schemes. Nevertheless, since many once widespread arable plant species are nowadays restricted to few arable fields, the introduction of such plant species via seed mixtures of local provenance should be considered in order to promote arable plant diversity at field level and to prevent the (local) extinction of rare species. In addition, during the implementation of the agri-environment measures, it was found that different weather conditions in the study years can lead to significant changes in the observed arable plant species richness and cover. This supports the assumption that multi-year monitoring is absolutely necessary for a reliable evaluation of agri-environment measures. In this context, the choice of survey methodology can have a considerable influence on the monitoring results. This thesis demonstrated that the different currently applied arable plant survey methods lead to significantly different results regarding the recorded arable plant species pool of a conventionally managed field (Chapter 4). To analyze the future development of the arable flora and the effectiveness of implemented agri-environment measures in a larger spatial and temporal context, a standard national or international monitoring system is required, which should ideally be implemented within the framework of the Common Agricultural Policy. By capturing a large part of the arable plant species pool of a conventionally managed field (median: 75.6 %) in a reasonable time (median: 20 minutes), this thesis presented an elongated plot of 500 × 1 m at the field edge as a promising survey method, which is recommended as future standard for arable plant monitoring.

RIJEČ UREDNIŠTVANa svojoj sjednici 17. srpnja 2003. godine Vlada Republike Hrvatske donijela je Nacionalnu šumarsku politiku i strategiju. S obzirom na sve očitije klimatske promjene koje traže novi odnos prema prirodi i okolišu, na manjkavosti važeće Nacinalne šumarske politike i strategije šumarstva, ali i po našoj ocjeni na neadekvatno uključivanje šumarstva u narodno gospodarstvo, je li i vrijeme za promjene u važećoj Nacionalnoj šumarskoj politici i strategiji? Imamo li uzore? Gledajući šumarske politike u relevantnim zemljama u kojima je šumarstvo značajna grana gospodarstva, razvidno je da se one ne mogu doslovno kopirati. U brošuri Šumarska politika Sabadi (1992) nakon analize Šumarske politike u Njemačkoj i Švicarskoj, navodi kako je očito "da svaka zemlja ima svoj oblik šumarske politike koji joj odgovara s obzirom na gospodarski i politički poredak, filozofiju te utjecaj pojedinaca i grupa na državnu vlast". No, nesporno je da je svaka šumarska politika integralni dio narodnog gospodarstva. Najvažnija faza u stvaranju nacionalne šumarske politike je njezino uključivanje i integracija s ostalim narodnim gospodarstvom u jednu inerakcijsku cjelinu. Isti autor kaže kako kod utvrđivanja Šumarske politike "treba prvo utvrditi ciljeve, a potom sredstva i mjere za postizanje postavljenih ciljeva. Posebnu pozornost treba posvetiti malom seljačkom šumoposjedu (oko 25 % šumske površine)" što je kod nas posebice teško, jer su šumoposjedi mali, a šumovlasnici se teško odlučuju na udruživanja putem kojih se jedino može polučiti uspjeh. Otežavajuća je okolnost da je svako ulaganje u šumu dugoročno i za ulagače premalo profitabilno, ponajprije jer šumarstvo ne sagledavaju kao integralni i vrlo utjecajni čimbenik narodnog gospodarstva. Uglavnom šuma se gleda samo kao izvor sirovine za preradu, dok se zaboravlja općekorisna uloga šuma koja traži širu podršku narodnog gospodarstva. No, ako njenu pravu vrijednost ne mogu sagledati privatni šumovlasnici i općenito poduzetnici, kojima je na prvome mjestu trenutna sirovinska vrijednost, to mora Država, posebice kada je ona, kao u našem slučaju većinski vlasnik. Opći interes treba biti ispred svih drugih interesa, a Država mora kontrolirati i privatne šumovlasnike da se ponašaju sukladno Zakonu o šumama, instrumentu Nacionalne šumarske politike i strategije, koji mora biti obvezan za sve šumovlasnike.Analizirajući da li primjenjujemo ono što je propisano u važećoj Nacionalnoj šumarskoj politici i strategiji i što bi još trebalo propisati, možemo postavljati pitanja i sami na njih odgovarati, jer bi tuđe odgovore smatrali kritikom, najčešće neopravdanom. Ponajprije: da li drvne sortimente prodajemo po tržišnim načelima; da li stvarno vjerujemo da ugovorima o isporuci sirovine pomažemo razvoju finalne prerade drva i povećanju zaposlenosti, posebice inženjera i VKV radnika, ili pak punimo privatne džepove izvoznika proizvoda primarne prerade; ako isporuku drvne sirovine ne usmjeravamo na optimalnu finalnu proizvodnju, nije li to rasipanje nacionalnog bogatstva u kojega je uložen prosječno stogodišnji trud; u isto vrijeme projekt Roswood Centra kompetencija za istočnu Europu, čitamo, daje primjere dobre prakse i inovacija koje se mogu implementirati za pametno i održivo korištenje vrijedne šumske sirovine; da li stvarno ili samo deklarativno kontroliramo sječu na privatnom šumoposjedu, posebice u šumama koje su vraćene bivšim šumovlasnicima; kojim instrumentima i koliko uspješno to radimo; osiguravamo li koristi koje bi od šumarstva trebala imati lokalna zajednica i stanovništvo ruralnih područja, što je jedno od glavnih načela Šumarske politike i strategije EU, koju načelno podržavamo; potičemo li i koliko uspješno suvremenu energetsku uporabu drvne sirovine; da li razmišljamo kako riješiti pitanje sukcesije – ruralna područja ostaju bez stanovništva, i šuma se širi čak do vrtova – nestaju pašnjaci pa i livadske površine unutar šume koje su donedavno košene za pašu i prehranu divljači; da li je istina da nam drvoprerađivači ne želeći osigurati zalihu drvne sirovine, a kada njima to pogoduje "diktiraju" izvlačenje drvnih sortimenata i kada to vremenske prilike ograničavaju (mokar teren) pa nastaju velike štete na šumskom tlu; zašto smo za sitan novac prepustili koncesionarima radnička odmarališta, posebice na moru, koja su izgrađena doprinosom radnika, kojega nisu pretočili u plaće, nego upravo u te objekte; da li smo u odnosu na druge zemlje prevelike površine uključili u Natura 2000; da li smo obavili restrukturiranje Hrvatskih šuma d.o.o. ? Sabadi kaže: "Racionalan put glede organizacije je da se svi poslovi obavljaju u šumariji, a na višoj razini samo oni poslovi koje nije moguće riješiti na šumariji ili njihovo rješenje nije racionalno. U Ministarstvu organizirati službe vrhovnog šumarskog nadzora i one za pomoć malim šumoposjednicima". Da li smo postavili sva pitanja – ne, ali čitatelje potičemo da ih i oni postave i daju odgovor na njih. Ponajprije treba odgovoriti na postavljeno pitanje u naslovu.Nadajući se da nam ova razmišljanja neće pokvariti nadolazeće blagdane, svim članovima Hrvatskoga šumarskoga društva i čitateljima Šumarskoga lista, želimo sretan Božić i uspješnu 2020. godinu.Uredništvo ; EDITORIALAt its session on July 17, 2003, the Government of the Republic of Croatia passed the National Forestry Policy and Strategy. In view of the increasingly pronounced climate change, which requires a new approach to nature and the environment, of the deficiencies of the current National Forestry Policy and Forestry Strategy, as well as, in our opinion, of the inadequate inclusion of forestry in the national economy, has the time come to introduce some changes in the valid National Forestry Policy and Strategy? Do we have any models? A review of forestry policies in relevant countries in which forestry is an important branch of economy clearly shows that they cannot be literally copied. In his brochure "Forestry Policy" Sabadi (1992) analyzed forestry policies in Germany and Switzerland and concluded that "every country has its own form of forestry policy which is in line with its economic and political system, philosophy and the influence of individuals and groups on the state government". It is, however, indisputable that every forestry policy is an integral part of the national economy. The most important stage in the creation of a national forestry policy is its inclusion into and integration with other national economies into one interactive unit. The same author goes on to say that in order to develop forestry policy, "its goals should first be determined, followed by means and measures of achieving the set goals. Particular attention should be paid to small private forest estates (about 25 % of the forested area)". This is very difficult in our country because privately owned forests are small and private forest owners are not willing to merge their estates, which is the only way in which success can be achieved. An aggravating circumstance lies in the fact that investments in forests are of long-term nature and are not sufficiently profitable for investors, chiefly because they do not perceive forestry as an integral and highly influential factor in the national economy. Forests are mainly viewed as a source of raw material for processing, while the non-market forest role, which requires a broader support by the national economy, is overlooked. If the real value of forests is not understood by private forest owners and entrepreneurs in general, whose primary goal is the current value of raw material, then it is the State which should understand it, especially when the State is the major owner as in Croatia. Collective interest should be above all other interests. The State should also make sure that private forest owners adhere to the regulations of the Forest Act, the instrument of the National Forestry Policy and Strategy which is binding for all forest owners.In our analysis of whether we apply the regulations set down in the valid National Forestry Policy and Strategy and what additional items should be incorporated, we should ask questions and answer them ourselves, since we would consider answers by other parties as mostly unjustified criticism. These questions involve the following: do we sell wood assortments according to market principles; do we really believe that with contracts on the delivery of raw material we contribute to the development of final wood processing and increased employment of engineers and qualified workers in the first place, or do we fill the pockets of private exporters of primary processing products; if raw wood material is not directed towards optimal final production, does not this mean that we squander the national wealth in which a hundred-year-long effort has been invested; at the same time we find that the Rosewood Competence Centre for Eastern Europe provides examples of good practice and innovations to be implemented into wise and sustainable use of valuable wood material; do we control felling in private forest estates in practice or only declaratively, particularly in forests which have been returned to their original owners; which instruments do we use and how successfully to accomplish this; do we ensure benefits which forestry should provide for the local community and the population of rural areas, which is one of the main principles of the EU Forestry Policy and Strategy, which we support in principle; do we stimulate and to what extent modern energy use of wood material; do we think about how to solve the question of succession - rural areas are increasingly being abandoned and forests are spreading as far as the people's gardens - pastures and grassland areas within forest, which were until recently mowed or grazed by wildlife, are disappearing; is it true that wood processors do not want to ensure stocks of wood material, and when it suits them "dictate" the extraction of wood assortments even when weather conditions are unfavourable (wet terrain), thus inflicting vast damage on forest soil; why did we allow workers' resort centres, especially those at the seaside, to be taken over by concessionaires for petty cash (these resorts were built with the money which workers allocated from their salaries for exactly this purpose); in relation to other countries, did we allocate too large areas to Natura 2000; did we restructure the company "Croatian Forests Ltd"? Sabadi says: " Rational organisation presupposes that all jobs are accomplished in a forest office, and only those jobs which cannot be performed in a forest office or their solution is not rational should be performed at a higher level. Forest monitoring services and services aimed at assisting small forest owners should be set up in the Ministry". Have we covered all the relevant questions? No, we have not, but we urge the readers to ask questions and give the answers themselves. The first question to be answered is the one mentioned in the headline.Hoping that these thoughts will not spoil the upcoming holidays, we wish Merry Christmas and a Very Successful New Year 2020 to all members of the Croatian Forestry Association and readers of the Forestry Journal.Editorial Board

Las vías terciarias juegan un papel muy importante para Colombia, ya que mediante estas vías se puede llegar a las zonas más alejadas y marginales del país, estas conexiones permiten la integración nacional, regional y local, las cuales repercuten directamente en la economía de los municipios, y aun más de los hogares rurales, ya que mediante estas vías se permite el movimiento de personas, alimentos y mercancías que ayudan al desarrollo del país. Actualmente está malla vial se encuentra bajo la gestión de INVIAS, departamentos y los municipios, donde el Gobierno a lo largo de la historia ha intentado impulsar diferentes proyectos para realizar mejoras sobre esta infraestructura; actualmente estas vías son uno de los grandes focos nacionales, teniendo en cuenta que, de los 140.000 km de vías terciarias, solo el 6% se encuentra en buen estado. Teniendo en cuenta que estas vías se encuentran en lugares de difícil acceso, y Colombia cuenta con diversos tipos de climas, pasando por bajas temperaturas hasta llegar a climas húmedos con temperaturas altas, es necesario plantear alternativas de pavimentación, donde se pueda utilizar los materiales de cada región, que sean poco sensibles al clima y que se pueda implementar equipos simples, herramientas de fácil consecución y usos de mano de obra con baja capacitación; es por esto, que dentro de esta monografía se propone implementar pavimentos de concreto denominado como losas optimizadas, los cuales en primer lugar, son menos sensibles a la capacidad de soporte del suelo teniendo en cuenta que los esfuerzos se distribuyen en áreas más grandes por lo tanto las solicitaciones que llegan al suelo son bajas. Y en segundo lugar al tener pavimentos de concreto las deformaciones de las losas son bajas, lo que permite la circulación de cargas pesadas sin que el pavimento se deforme. Las losas optimizadas, es una tecnología desarrollada por El Ingeniero Chileno, Juan Pablo Covarrubias, donde propone reemplazar las metodologías de pavimento de concreto tradicional como AASHTO y PCA, por un sistema de losas con geometría optimizada que permiten una distribución más eficiente de la carga para evitar los problemas de agrietamiento, donde el principio fundamental del método consiste en diseñar el tamaño de la losa para que no más de un set de ruedas del vehículo se encuentre en una determinada losa, minimizando así la tensión de tracción crítica; las dimensiones propuestas son de 1,80 m x 1,80m. En el siguiente trabajo se realizaron 180 modelaciones, donde se tienen 3 cartas de diseño basadas cada una en un clima diferente (8°C a15°C, 15°C a 25°C y 25°C a 32°C), dentro de cada carta se utilizaron los mismos parámetros para la estructura de pavimento como se presenta a continuación: • Subrasante: Se escogieron 5 tipos de subrasante, pasando de suelos blandos con módulos bajos a suelos de buena calidad con módulos altos (30, 40, 50, 60 y 80 MPa). • Subbase granular: Se estableció un espesor único de 15 cm, donde con los módulos de subrasante se calculó mediante la fórmula de Shell; el módulo que generaba el material de subbase (60, 80, 100, 120 y 160 MPa respectivamente). • Transito: Se adoptaron 5 diferentes tránsitos en ejes equivalentes (50.000, 100.000, 300.000, 500.000 y 700.000 EE). • Losa de concreto: Se establecieron 3 módulos de rotura del concreto (3.8, 4.1 y 4.3 MPa), y se dejaba iterando el espesor de la losa. Mediante estas modelaciones se encontraron espesores entre 10 cm y 18 cm, siendo el factor del clima el que menos afecta al cálculo del espesor, teniendo en cuenta que al tener losas de menores dimensiones el alabeo es mucho menor, lo que genera una vida útil mayor a las losas convencionales (3.5 a 4 m), por otra parte, uno de los fatores que más importancia tiene dentro del diseño, es la rigidez de la subbase y subrasante, ya que al tener espesores más delgados el material granular ayuda con las tensiones de punzonamiento, de acuerdo a la afirmación anterior, al realizar la comparación de los resultados de las modelaciones entre un material granular blando (subrasante: 30 MPa y Subbase: 60 MPa) vs un material granular de buenas características (subrasante: 80 MPa y Subbase: 160 MPa) se obtienen diferencias de aproximadamente 3 cm, lo que equivale a un 20% de diferencia. Finalmente, al realizar la comparación en presupuesto entre una losa optimizada de dimensiones de 1.8 m x 1.8 para una vía de 3.6 m de ancho, de espesor variable entre 10, 15 y 18 cm vs una placa huella, con el espesor tipo de 15 cm, utilizando los mismos costos y características, se observa un ahorro de aproximadamente $197.553.390/km, $94.383.894/km y $32.482.196/km respectivamente, siendo siempre inferior al presupuesto de una placa huella, generando que esta alternativa de pavimento se viable para la construcción de las vías de BVT. Aun cuando en el presente estudio se realizaron modelaciones con diferentes parámetros de clima, material granular, concreto y tránsito, se recomienda realizar ensayos de laboratorio para caracterizar los materiales de subrasante, analizar los materiales de la cantera de donde se obtendrá el material granular de subbase y analizar el transito atraído que puede generar la construcción de la vía. ; The tertiary roads play a very important role for Colombia, since through these roads you can reach the most remote and marginal areas of the country, these connections allow national, regional and local integration, which directly affect the economy of the municipalities , and even more of rural households, since through these routes the movement of people, food and goods that help the development of the country is allowed. Currently this road network is under the management of INVIAS, departments and municipalities, where the Government throughout history has tried to promote different projects to make improvements on this infrastructure; these roads are currently one of the great national centers, taking into account that, of the 140,000 km of tertiary roads, only 6% are in good condition. Taking into account that these roads are in places of difficult access, and Colombia has several types of climates, going through low temperatures to reach humid climates with high temperatures, it is necessary to propose paving alternatives, where you can use the materials each region, that are not very sensitive to the climate and that simple equipment, tools of easy attainment and uses of workforce with low training can be implemented; This is why, within this monograph, it is proposed to implement concrete pavements called optimized slabs, which in the first place are less sensitive to the capacity of soil support, taking into account that the efforts are distributed in larger areas so both the requests that reach the ground are low. And secondly, having concrete pavements the deformations of the slabs are low, which allows the circulation of heavy loads without the pavement deforming. The optimized slabs, is a technology developed by the Chilean Engineer, Juan Pablo Covarrubias, where he proposes to replace the traditional concrete pavement methodologies such as AASHTO and PCA, with a slab system with optimized geometry that They allow a more efficient distribution of the load to avoid cracking problems, where the fundamental principle of the method is to design the size of the slab so that no more than one set of wheels of the vehicle is in a certain slab, thus minimizing the critical tensile tension; The proposed dimensions are 1.80 m x 1.80m. In the following work 180 modeling was carried out, where 3 design cards are based each in a different climate (8 ° C to 15 ° C, 15 ° C to 25 ° C and 25 ° C to 32 ° C), within Each letter used the same parameters for the pavement structure as presented below: • Subgrade: 5 types of subgrade were chosen, moving from soft floors with low modules to good quality floors with high modules (30, 40, 50, 60 and 80 MPa). • Granular subbase: A single thickness of 15 cm was established, where with the subgrade modules it was calculated using the Shell formula; the module that generated the subbase material (60, 80, 100, 120 and 160 MPa respectively). • Transit: 5 different transits were adopted on equivalent axes (50,000, 100,000, 300,000, 500,000 and 700,000 EE). • Concrete slab: 3 concrete break modules (3.8, 4.1 and 4.3 MPa) were established, and the thickness of the slab was left iterating. Through these modeling, thicknesses between 10 cm and 18 cm were found, with the climate factor being the one that least affects the thickness calculation, taking into account that having smaller slabs the warping is much smaller, which generates a longer useful life Conventional slabs (3.5 to 4 m), on the other hand, one of the most important fators in the design, is the stiffness of the subbase and subgrade, since having thinner thicknesses the granular material helps with stresses of punching, according to the previous statement, when comparing the results of the modeling between a soft granular material (subgrade: 30 MPa and Subbase: 60 MPa) vs a granular material of good characteristics (subgrade: 80 MPa and Subbase : 160 MPa) differences of approximately 3 cm are obtained, which is equivalent to a 20% difference. Finally, when making the comparison in budget between an optimized slab of dimensions of 1.8 mx 1.8 for a track of 3.6 m wide, of varying thickness between 10, 15 and 18 cm vs a footprint plate, with the type thickness of 15 cm, using the same costs and characteristics, a saving of approximately $ 197,553,390 / km, $ 94,383,894 / km and $ 32,482,196 / km respectively is observed, always being lower than the budget of a footprint plate, generating that this alternative of pavement is viable for the construction of the BVT tracks. Although in the present study modeling with different parameters of climate, granular material, concrete and transit were performed, it is recommended to perform ; Maestría ; Magíster en Ingeniería Civil con Énfasis en Geotecnia

Better market linkages and higher farm benefits for smallholder farmers in emerging and developing economies have received remarkable attention worldwide (Minot and Roy, 2007; Kumar et al., 2011). In this regard, contract farming (CF) is proposed as a better solution to the fact that smallholders are otherwise potentially dropped out of the modern marketing channels because of small-scale production and farmers from emerging and developing countries are to earn more farm benefit by getting closely linked to modern, in many cases global food value chains markets (Bacon, 2005; Mangala and Chengappa, 2008; Minten et al., 2009; Rao et al., 2012; Jia and Bijman, 2013). Furthermore it is expected that the challenges of a sharply increasing world population, the overuse of natural resources, and the reduction of overall agricultural land size can be met by contracting smallholder farmers (Sartorius, 2013). However, the circumstances of farmers' decision in contracting and its influences on farm performances have remained uncertain so far for many specific countries and products (Rao et al., 2012). Among the major rice farming countries in Southeast Asia, i.e. Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines, and Thailand, Vietnam is characterized by very favorable natural and social conditions for irrigated rice production in bulk. Irrigated rice production in the country is based on high soil quality, tropical monsoon weather, numerous water-flows and a large share of the population working in the agricultural sector (more than 66%) (Ya'kub et al., 2012). However, low quality and a lack of professionalism are dramatic problems of the Vietnamese rice export sector (Reardon et al., 2014). Vietnam is still known as a low-quality rice supplier; as a result the Vietnamese rice price is 20% to 30% lower than the Thai rice price (Kubo, 2013). The Vietnamese rice has also lately entered the world export market while the prices were already steadily declining (Nielsen, 2003; Dechachete, 2011; Ramberg, 2011). Currently, the Vietnamese rice sector is characterized by a lack of information with short technical assistances, and low input qualities. It is assumed that there is still a large potential to increase the ability of smallholders to improve production and increase rice yields, overcome existing market barriers, access export markets and increase farm benefits and improve the livelihood of farmers' families. By further promoting the CF scheme in 2002, the Vietnamese government proposed a better frame for the agricultural sector, especially, for the rice sector in the country (Kompas, 2002; Hoang and Yabe, 2012; Vu, 2012). By farmers' participation in the CF scheme, the production of high-quality products due to improved farmer training and better quality of input factors is a possible solution for Vietnamese rice to more successfully compete on the world market (Dawe, 2004). Furthermore, farmers can expect a price differential due to improved quality and competitiveness. Thus, this scheme is assumed to support smallholders to increase farm benefits. In addition, the CF scheme has been implemented to improve farmers' bargaining power and to create an official ground for smallholders to directly deal with private sectors in the Vietnamese economy. In terms of firm benefits, these decisions also clarify the government's efforts to support the private sector in supplying agricultural inputs to farmers such as seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, credit, and extension services (Ya'kub et al., 2012). Furthermore, this step is also an important procedure to secure national food demand, improve international competitiveness, and upgrade the position of export-oriented rice farmers (Goletti et al., 1997; ADB, 2005). However, in terms of empirical research, up to this date, there are only very few studies that explore the benefits of CF for exporters of rice farmers in Vietnam, especially with regard to the Mekong River Delta (MRD) where about 90% of the national export rice quantity is produced (Loc and Son, 2011). Therefore, there is a lack of in-depth quantitative studies analyzing the effects of CF participation with regard to farmers' marketing decisions, farm performance and technical efficiency, especially, in the export-oriented rice production segment. Against this background it is the objective of this dissertation to close this research gap by providing a better understanding of farmers' decision making with regard to the CF scheme and providing more in-depth insights into the effects of contract farming on efficiency and farm performance. The conceptual framework of this study is based on the New Institutional Economics perspective proposed by Coase (1937) and Williamson (1975). The underlying ideas about the contract concept explained in the following basically refer back to the three major sub-strands, i.e. agency theory (Ross, 1973), transaction cost theory (Benjamin et al., 1978; Williamson, 1979), and property rights theory (Alchian and Demsetz, 1973; Grossman and Hart, 1986). Thereof, the transaction cost theory is particularly suitable for this study since it describes "uncertainty" as a main dimension (together with "asset specificity" and "frequency") influencing the appropriateness of governance mechanisms in (food) supply chains (Williamson, 1979). The market imperfections due to a lack of information, a limited accessibility of inputs, and a shortage of technical assistance all contribute to "uncertainty" and are related to the research topic and objective of this study. In spite of increasing pressure to deliver high quality export products at competitive prices to enter the up-market domestic and global value chains, the CF scheme still faces some constraints in emerging and developing economies. This can be explained by reference to the poor coordination among parties, unfavorable contracts, and specified socio-demographic characteristics (Da Silva, 2005; Simmons et al., 2005; Hongdong, 2007; Wang et al., 2014). Nonetheless, these aspects have only been poorly analyzed so far and are not well understood, both from a theoretical and an empirical perspective. This dissertation seeks to overcome this weakness by building up the conceptual framework and empirical methodology to capture these aspects of the export-oriented rice sector in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. We address these research objectives by using primary data collected in early 2016 in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) of Vietnam, where nearly 90% of the country's export rice is produced. The target population of 250.000 households lives in the three main export-oriented rice production regions namely Kien Giang, Can Tho, and An Giang provinces, in the MRD (USDA, 2015). Using a structured questionnaire, 250 households were randomly chosen from the aforementioned provinces. To thereby ensure the comparability of contract and non-contract farmers, we randomly selected 134 contract farmers from contractor lists and 116 non-contract farmers from village official lists of 12 villages. The surveyed households had to meet two criteria: Firstly, they had to be located in the same area as the contract participants, and secondly, they also had to produce export-oriented rice. These selected farmers cumulate rice under written contracts. The contracting company is in charge of specifying the production practices, including input supply (seeds, fertilizer, pesticides), extension services, and the commitment of buying the products (Simmons et al., 2005; Bijman, 2008). In this study, the export-oriented rice farmers were interviewed regarding the information about three types of export-oriented rice producing seasons between November 2014 and October 2015. In the first paper, we explore the factors that determine smallholder farmers' probability in developing and emerging economies to participate in CF scheme. We particularly focus on the accessibility of market information. A binary probit model is applied to examine the probability to participate in the CF scheme. We follow Heckman's (1979) method to compare the probit results with the maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE) in order to control any sample selection bias (Wynand and Bernard, 1981). Results reveal that farmers' contracting decisions are strongly affected by farm characteristics, market information access, and household characteristics. Remarkably, the accessibility of world market price information significantly increases smallholders' likelihood to participate in CF. Moreover, the extension service offered by the contractors is considered to be an important motivator for rice smallholders to participate in CF. The availability of price information should be taken into account by the government to motivate the active participation of smallholders in contractual arrangements. The second paper provides the evidence about how the CF scheme influences household income and rice profit within the export-oriented rice sector in Vietnam. We employ the Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) estimation in combination with propensity score matching (PSM) procedure to control any sampling bias. The result confirms a positive effect of contract participation status on farming households' performance. Particularly, together with "farming size" and "the accessibility of extension services", "the accessibility of world price information" is found as a positive determinant. Moreover, CF participation is considered to be an important influencer for rice smallholders to increase their income and rice profit. In addition, it becomes evident that not only larger-scale farmers but also small-scale farmers can benefit from contract participation. In this connection, the OLS regression in combination with PSM gives noticeable evidence for the role of CF in improving household income of smallholders by 20.87% and rice profit by 30.54% in Vietnam. In the third paper, we investigate how CF improves the technical efficiency of farming and the technical inefficiency determinants of export-oriented rice production in the country. The Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) is applied to measure the production frontier and the farming technical inefficiency determinants, and PSM is again applied to control for self-selection bias. The results show that the average technical efficiency is of 87.33% with a range between 56.48% and 96.47%. The results suggest convincible opportunities for farmers to increase the productivity of export-oriented rice production in the country by nearly 13% without raising the current resource levels. Land, seed, fertilizer, machine, and labor are identified as the major inputs of the production frontier. Moreover, the socio-demographic characteristics of the sample also slightly influence the TE of rice farming, however their influence is non-significant. Based on the findings, "educational level", "rice farming experience" and "off-farm income" are found as determinants positively influencing rice farming TE. In contrast, there is a low negative effect of credit accessibility. In addition, CF participation is considered to have an influence (even though not a significant one) for rice smallholders to increase their farm TE. In this connection, contract participation could support not only larger-scale farmers but also small-scale farmers from developing and emerging economies in improving their production patterns.

[spa] Los territorios cambian en forma constante y sistemática, impulsados por la influencia antropogénica y alentados o limitados por entorno biofísico. Los factores que dieron origen a la expresión espacial particular de los cantones Otavalo, Pujilí y Guamote, se relacionan con el arraigo cultural diferenciado, producto de su herencia histórica en donde los pueblos indígenas que se asientan en el área de estudio y conviven con habitantes de otras etnias han marcado las pautas de comportamiento, en especial en el cantón Otavalo. En esta investigación se comprobó que los impactos y consecuencias sociales, culturales, ambientales y económicas de las dinámicas territoriales biofísicas y antropogénicas son disímiles en los cantones en estudio, a pesar de que la densidad poblacional rural y la presencia indígena mayoritaria son similares en los tres cantones. Se evidenció mayor pobreza en los cantones Pujilí y Guamote en comparación con el cantón Otavalo; a pesar de que su superficie constituye la tercera parte de los otros dos cantones y supera a éstos con el triple de población. Se pudo inferir que la poca disponibilidad de tierra y la alta población contribuyeron para que los indígenas del cantón Otavalo incursionen en otras actividades económicas que no dependen del recurso tierra; en cambio en Pujilí y Guamote la disponibilidad de mayor superficie de territorio, ha coadyuvado para que su población vea como opción productiva la producción agropecuaria. Una consecuencia de estas dinámicas diferenciadas es la generación de conflictos de uso del suelo, cuya expresión más visible es la transgresión de la aptitud natural de uso del suelo para hacer agricultura en suelos cuya aptitud es la conservación. Las políticas públicas diferenciadas que toman en cuenta aspectos ambientales, socioculturales y económicos, vistos desde una óptica integradora por unidad territorial,-el cantón-, harían la diferencia, especialmente en Guamote y Otavalo, en donde los indígenas se han tomado el control político local, desde hace algunas décadas, por la vía de elecciones populares; mientras que en Pujilí, todavía el poder político local está en manos de la etnia mestiza. Con la finalidad de medir la pobreza, como consecuencia de las dinámicas territoriales y sociodemográficas disímiles en el área de estudio, se aplicó el Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional, IPM, que permite identificar de manera integral las carencias de los habitantes de una determinada unidad territorial. De los resultados, se encontró que Otavalo tiene las mejores condiciones, con un IPM de sólo el 43%, frente a Guamote con un IPM del 50% y Pujilí con un IPM de 53%; lo que significa que la población de Otavalo se encuentra en mejores condiciones que la de los otros dos cantones, a pesar de que es el cantón más densamente poblado. En este contexto, la principal conclusión del estudio fue que los impactos y consecuencias sociales, culturales, ambientales y económicas de las dinámicas territoriales biofísicas y antropogénicas disimiles, en los cantones Otavalo, Guamote y Pujilí, han dado como resultado una configuración territorial diferenciada en donde se evidencia mayor pobreza en los cantones Pujilí y Guamote, en comparación con Otavalo. La existencia de mayor porcentaje de personas que viven en hogares multidimensionalmente pobres, hace pensar que la incursión en otras actividades que no dependan del cultivo de la tierra como único sustento, debería ser una opción para disminuir la pobreza, en Pujilí y Guamote, acompañado de políticas públicas diferenciadas que tomen en cuenta aspectos ambientales, socioculturales y económicos, vistos desde una óptica integradora por unidad territorial, en este caso el cantón. ; [eng] Territories change constantly and systematically, driven by anthropogenic influence and encouraged or limited by a biophysical environment. The factors that gave rise to the particular spatial expression of the cantons Otavalo, Pujilí and Guamote, are related to the differentiated cultural roots, product of their historical inheritance in which the indigenous peoples who settle in the study area and live with inhabitants of other ethnic groups have marked the patterns of behaviour, especially in the Otavalo canton. In this research it was found that the social, cultural, environmental and economic impacts and consequences of the biophysical and anthropogenic territorial dynamics are dissimilar in the cantons under study, despite the fact that the rural population density and the majority indigenous presence are similar in the three cantons. Greater poverty was evident in the Pujilí and Guamote cantons compared to the Otavalo canton; although its surface constitutes the third part of the other two cantons and exceeds these with three times the population. It could be inferred that the scarce availability of land and the high population contributed to the indigenous people of the Otavalo canton entering other economic activities that do not depend on the land resource; On the other hand, in Pujilí and Guamote, the availability of a larger area of land has helped the population to see agricultural production as a productive option. A consequence of these differentiated dynamics is the generation of conflicts of land use, whose most visible expression is the transgression of the natural aptitude of land use to make agriculture in soils whose aptitude is conservation. Differentiated public policies that take into account environmental, sociocultural and economic aspects, viewed from an integrating perspective by territorial unit, -the canton-, would make a difference, especially in Guamote and Otavalo, where indigenous people have taken over local political control, for a few decades, through popular elections; while in Pujilí, local political power is still in the hands of the mestizo ethnic group. In order to measure poverty, as a consequence of the territorial and sociodemographic dynamics dissimilar in the study area, the Multidimensional Poverty Index, IPM, was applied, which allows to comprehensively identify the shortcomings of the inhabitants of a given territorial unit. From the results, it was found that Otavalo has the best conditions, with an IPM of only 43%, compared to Guamote with an MPI of 50% and Pujilí with an IPM of 53%; which means that the population of Otavalo is in better conditions than that of the other two cantons, even though it is the most densely populated canton. In this context, the main conclusion of the study was that the social, cultural, environmental and economic impacts and impacts of the dissimilar biophysical and anthropogenic territorial dynamics in the Otavalo, Guamote and Pujilí cantons have resulted in a differentiated territorial configuration where there is evidence of greater poverty in the Pujilí and Guamote cantons, in comparison with Otavalo. The existence of a greater percentage of people living in multidimensionally poor households, suggests that the incursion into other activities that do not depend on the cultivation of the land as the sole sustenance, should be an option to reduce poverty, in Pujilí and Guamote, accompanied by differentiated public policies that take into account environmental, socio-cultural and economic aspects, viewed from an integrating perspective by territorial unit, in this case the canton. ; [cat] Els territoris canvien en forma constant i sistemàtica, impulsats per la influència antropogènica i encoratjats o limitats per l'entorn biofísic. Els factors que van donar origen a l'expressió espacial particular dels cantons Otavalo, Pujilí i Guamote, es relacionen amb l'arrelament cultural diferenciat, producte de la seva herència històrica on els pobles indígenes que s'assenten en l'àrea d'estudi i conviuen amb habitants de altres ètnies han marcat les pautes de comportament, especialment al cantó Otavalo. En aquesta investigació es va comprovar que els impactes i conseqüències socials, culturals, ambientals i econòmiques de les dinàmiques territorials biofísiques i antropogèniques són dissímils en els cantons en estudi, tot i que la densitat poblacional rural i la presència indígena majoritària són similars en els tres cantons. Es va evidenciar major pobresa en els cantons Pujilí i Guamote en comparació amb el cantó Otavalo; tot i que la seva superfície constitueix la tercera part dels altres dos cantons i supera aquests amb el triple de població. Es va poder inferir que la poca disponibilitat de terra i l'elevada població van contribuir a qué els indígenes del cantó Otavalo s'endinsin en altres activitats econòmiques que no depenen del recurs terra; en canvi en Pujilí i Guamote la disponibilitat de major superfície territorial, ha coadjuvat perquè la seva població vegi com a opció productiva la producció agropecuària. Una conseqüència d'aquestes dinàmiques diferenciades és la generació de conflictes d'ús del sòl, l'expressió més visible és la transgressió de l'aptitud natural d'ús del sòl per fer agricultura en sòls on la aptitud és la conservació. Les polítiques públiques diferenciades que tenen en compte aspectes ambientals, socioculturals i econòmics, vistos des d'una òptica integradora per unitat territorial, -el cantón-, farien la diferència, especialment en Guamote i Otavalo, on els indígenes han près el control polític local, des de fa algunes dècades, per la via d'eleccions populars; mentre que a Pujilí, encara el poder polític local està en mans de l'ètnia mestissa. Amb la finalitat de mesurar la pobresa, com a conseqüència de les dinàmiques territorials i sociodemogràfiques dissímils en l'àrea d'estudi, es va aplicar l'Índex de Pobresa Multidimensional, IPM, que permet identificar de manera integral les mancances dels habitants d'una determinada unitat territorial. Dels resultats, es va trobar que Otavalo té les millors condicions, amb un IPM de només el 43%, enfront de Guamote amb un IPM del 50% i Pujilí amb un IPM de 53%; el que significa que la població d'Otavalo es troba en millors condicions que la dels altres dos cantons, tot i que és el cantó més densament poblat. En aquest context, la principal conclusió de l'estudi va ser que els impactes i conseqüències socials, culturals, ambientals i econòmiques de les dinàmiques territorials biofísiques i antropogèniques dissimils, en els cantons Otavalo, Guamote i Pujilí, han donat com a resultat una configuració territorial diferenciada on s'evidencia major pobresa en els cantons Pujilí i Guamote, en comparació amb Otavalo. L'existència de major percentatge de persones que viuen en llars multidimensionalment pobres, fa pensar que la incursió en altres activitats que no depenguin del cultiu de la terra com a únic suport, hauria de ser una opció per a disminuir la pobresa, en Pujilí i Guamote, acompanyat de polítiques públiques diferenciades que tinguin en compte aspectes ambientals, socioculturals i econòmics, vistos des d'una òptica integradora per unitat territorial, en aquest cas el cantó.

Since a few years, in many different domains (e.g. sociology, ecology or economy), there is a growing trend in designing models that can be used for exploratory purposes rather than purely predictive ones. Loosely following a "complex systems" paradigm, exploratory models are often based on explicit and detailed representations of the components of the systems studied, and offer a large degree of freedom in the parameter or structural adjustments available to their final users (researchers, decision-makers or stakeholders). They are intended to be used as a support of "as-if experiments" as they allow, through these adjustments, for the formulation of detailed hypotheses at various levels of description of the system. These hypotheses then lead to the generation of scenarios whose outcomes are explored and compared by way of repeated simulations. Epidemiology is an interesting example of this situation. Its long modelling history can be characterised as a search for simple predictive models, but recent examples like the outbreaks of avian influenza in South-East Asia have shown their limits: without properly taking into account the interplays between social, ecological and biological dynamics to understand how this pandemic evolves, these models become useless as far as prediction goes. And when some of these dynamics are tentatively taken into account, the resulting models often become dependent on incomplete or qualitative data (for instance, the decision-making processes of social actors or the behaviours of birds), which prevents them to be used for any serious predicting purposes. As a consequence, there has been a recent shift of focus of the community on the design of exploratory models, which are meant to allow understanding the links between these dynamics, generating and studying various hypotheses, and measuring, with respect to these hypotheses, the impact of local or global policies in complex scenarios. However, designing and using such models gives rise to serious methodological issues and existing modelling and simulation methodologies do not cope very well with this new type of models. When they are adapted to take their peculiarities into account, this often results in ad hoc solutions, which can barely be reused for other models in the same domain, let alone in different domains. The objective of this thesis is to propose a domain-independent methodology (KIMONO) to facilitate the design and use of such exploratory models. Based on a series of examples from various domains (road traffic, social segregation, soil dynamics and more extensively epidemiology), I proceed from an account of the design requirements (taking conflicting and evolving hypotheses into account during the modelling process, producing highly-modular models, enabling an iterative modelling cycle, allowing for the collaboration of different experts and the combination of different formalisms, etc.) to a concrete proposal involving dedicated computer tools and a common accessible formalism, both aimed at facilitating the collaboration, communication and the implementation of "world models" (the name given in this proposal to open exploratory models). The methodology I propose focuses on two elements: the implication of the experts and a detailed representation of the system. Experts are at the centre of the modelling process, which starts with extensive descriptions of their knowledge, possibly reusing their formalism, and further proceeds through iterative amendments (of increasing or decreasing complexity) that they are able to evaluate and validate in interaction with the modellers. The iterative process comes to an end when the experts estimate that they have a sufficient insight of the system or when further investigations require field experiments. Regarding the kind of representation suitable for supporting this process, I propose an adaptable and modular combination of two implementation systems: Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) and Geographical 3 DRAFT 26/09/11 Information Systems (GIS). I show that this combination provides for an arbitrary level of description of the components of a system, that it allows both qualitative and quantitative knowledge to be equally represented and that it supports a high level of evolution of the hypotheses during the modelling process. The interactions between modellers and experts are based on two abstractions of these implementation details, using both the ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details) protocol for communication purposes, and the GAML modelling language for the collaborative programming of the model. The methodology proposed has been applied and validated in the context of a large study undertaken in South-East Asia (especially North-Vietnam) by epidemiologists and veterinarians to understand the role of various hypotheses in explaining the recurring outbreaks of the avian influenza epidemics among domestic poultry. During a four years long interdisciplinary collaboration, several "world models" have been co- designed, implemented on the GAMA platform and used as "virtual laboratories" by experts. This collaboration, and its unique outcomes, have allowed them to test a broad range of hypotheses (especially on the local conditions of persistence), better understand the role of various spatial, ecological or social factors in the survival and propagation of the virus and reorient some of their field studies in consequence. ; Depuis plusieurs années, on peut observer une tendance, dans de nombreux domaines (Sociologie, Ecologie, Economie, etc.), à construire des modèles vers l'exploration des systèmes qu'ils représentent que vers la prédiction ou l'explication. S'inscrivant dans le paradigme des "systèmes complexes", ces modèles exploratoires utilisent généralement une représentation explicite et détaillée des composants du système étudié. Ils offrent aussi aux utilisateurs finaux (chercheurs, décideurs, parties prenantes) une grande liberté d'adaptation en termes de paramètres et de structure du modèle. Ces modèles servent de support à des expériences "as-if" en permettant, au travers de ces ajustements, la formulation d'hypothèses détaillées et ce à différents niveaux de descriptions du système. A partir de ces hypothèses, des scénarios sont construits, dont les résultats sont explorés et analysés grâce à des simulations répétées. L'épidémiologie est exemplaire de cette situation. Elle a une longue histoire de modélisation qui peut être caractérisée comme la recherche de modèles essentiellement prédictifs. Cependant, certaines situations, comme l'émergence de foyers épidémiques de grippe aviaire en Asie du Sud Est, montre la limite d'une telle approche: sans une prise en compte adéquate des interactions entre les dynamiques sociales, écologiques et biologiques, l'utilisation de modèles prédictifs est sans fondement. De plus, dès lors que l'on tente de prendre en compte ces dynamiques, les modèles deviennent dépendants de données incomplètes ou qualitatives (le processus de décision des acteurs sociaux ou bien le comportement des oiseaux, par exemple). En conséquence, on assiste actuellement à un changement d'orientation de la communauté épidémiologique vers la conception de modèles plus exploratoires, mieux adaptés à la génération et à l'étude d'hypothèses variées, et mieux à même d'aider à mesurer, par rapport à ces hypothèses, l'impact des politiques locales et globales de lutte contre les épidémies dans le cadre de scénarios complexes. Cependant, concevoir et utiliser de tels modèles souligne les sérieux problèmes méthodologiques auxquels ne peuvent réellement répondre les méthodologies de modélisation et simulation existantes. Et quand celles-ci ont été adaptées pour prendre ces spécificités en compte, il en résulte des solutions ad hoc qui ne peuvent être réutilisées ni dans le domaine en général, ni dans d'autres domaines. L'objectif de cette thèse est de proposer une méthodologie (KIMONO) qui, sans être spécifique à un domaine particulier, facilite la conception et l'utilisation de ces modèles exploratoires. En partant d'une série d'exemples tirés de différents domaines (trafic routier, ségrégation sociale, dynamique du sol, mais aussi, et de façon plus extensive, épidémiologie), je commence par une caractérisation des besoins de conception (prise en compte d'hypothèses contradictoires et évolutives lors du processus de modélisation, génération de modèles extrêmement modulaires, rendant possible un cycle de modélisation itératif, permettant la collaboration entre différents experts et la combinaison de différents formalismes, etc.) pour aboutir à une proposition concrète impliquant un outil informatique dédié et un formalisme commun et accessible, orienté aussi bien vers la facilitation de la collaboration, la communication et l'implémentation de "modèles monde" (le nom donné dans ce document à ces modèles exploratoires ouverts). La méthodologie que je propose se concentre sur deux éléments: l'implication des experts et la représentation détaillée du système. Les experts sont au coeur de processus de modélisation. Celui-ci s'appuie sur une description étendue de leurs connaissances, potentiellement exprimées dans leurs propres formalismes, description qui est ensuite amendée de façon itérative (soit pour la complexifier, soit pour la simplifier) dans un dialogue continu avec les modélisateurs et en utilisant le modèle pour support. Ce processus itératif s'arrête quand les experts estiment qu'ils ont obtenu suffisamment de précisions sur le système ou lorsque la poursuite de ces itérations nécessite des expériences ou données de terrain. Concernant les types de représentations qui soient adaptées à un tel processus, je propose une combinaison modulaire et adaptable de deux systèmes d'implémentation: les modèles à base d'agent (MBA) et les Systèmes d'Information Géo-référencées (SIG). Je montre que cette combinaison offre une très grande souplesse de description des composants d'un système (réel), qu'elle permet de représenter de façon équivalente les 5 DRAFT 26/09/11 connaissances qualitatives et quantitatives des experts, et qu'elle supporte un haut niveau d'évolution des hypothèses au cours du processus de modélisation. Les protocoles d'interaction proposés entre modélisateurs et experts se basent sur deux abstractions de cette implémentation: ODD (Overview, Design concepts, Details, un protocole de communication de modèle) et GAML (un langage de modélisation pour la programmation collaborative du modèle). La méthodologie proposée a été appliquée et validée dans le contexte d'une étude détaillée située en Asie du Sud Est (essentiellement au Nord Vietnam) par des épidémiologistes et des vétérinaires. Ceux-ci voulaient pouvoir évaluer, en l'absence de données de terrain ou de résultats d'expérimentation, l'effet de différentes hypothèses expliquant la réapparition récurrente de foyers épidémiques de grippe aviaire parmi la population domestique de volailles. Au cours de cette coopération interdisciplinaire, qui a duré quatre ans, plusieurs "modèles monde" ont été co-conçus et implémentés au sein de la plate-forme GAMA, et utilisés comme "laboratoires virtuels" par les experts. Cette collaboration, et ces résultats, ont permis de tester un large champ d'hypothèses (en particulier sur les conditions locales de persistance), d'avoir une meilleure compréhension du rôle de l'environnement spatial, des facteurs écologiques et sociaux dans la survie et la propagation du virus et ont également permis de réorienter certaines des études de terrains.

When I was asked to write the foreword for this important journal I was honored. Honored and troubled. What could a conservation ecologist say about development that was particularly relevant at such a critical time in Madagascar's history? During such a distinct period of uncertainty and change, what reflection might I offer that would be helpful, hopeful, and reasonable? Over the weeks, I have witnessed the turmoil of a country searching for inner peace while dedicated individuals continue to work towards improving lives and safeguarding the future of this wonderfully unique island. And in struggling with what to say in the face of inevitable change, three concepts keep coming to mind. The first two concepts come from my ecology training; the last emerges from my experiences as a development professional. These concepts are neither new nor ground-breaking. They certainly won't solve all the challenges of Madagascar conservation and development today. Yet together, these three concepts may offer some orientation for continued integrated conservation and development work in a changing Madagascar. The first concept is connectedness. Connections are the key to ecology. Species and ecological processes linked in one complex system. Natural elements connected to people and culture through a complex web of relationships, desires and values. At this critical juncture in Madagascar's history, it seems imperative to both understand and exploit these connections. Healthy people cannot exist in an unhealthy environment. Political decisions are intimately connected to the well-being of people and the survival of their natural resource base. As choices are made, it is imperative that decisions not be taken in short-term haste to meet the pressing needs of today at the expense of the longer term needs of both today and tomorrow.A thoughtful process that embraces the connectedness of all Malagasy people to each other and their natural world is a difficult one. But by keeping these connections intact, by ensuring that each part of the system is understood and valued, a more rewarding, equitable and sustainable future can be secured. The second concept is resiliency. Resiliency relates to the ability to withstand and recover from shocks and perturbances while maintaining functionality and equilibrium. It is clear that Madagascar is experiencing shocks. More frequent and intense cyclones, changing climatic patterns, severe periods of drought and unprecedented pressure for natural resources tax the recovery abilities of humans and the natural world alike. Recent socio-political changes are undoubtedly testing the resiliency of Malagasy society. New pathways for development in Madagascar must offer resilient options for the Malagasy people.The sharing of development dividends amongst a larger number of citizens across Malagasy society will enhance the resiliency of Madagascar as a whole. Safeguarding natural assets, including soil, water, forests, fisheries and biological diversity, creates a social safety net that will allow Madagascar to cope in the short-term, and thrive in the long-term. The last concept is reconciliation. Of all the concepts, this is probably the most difficult one. In the financial world, we reconcile our accounts. Inputs and outputs, income and expenses are scrutinized to ensure that the ledger adds up at the end of the day. But such reconciliation demands an honest and clear accounting system where incomes are transparent and real costs are understood. In Madagascar, this means making development decisions that incorporate the real costs of leaving marginalized and vulnerable members of society behind, real costs of irrevocable and detrimental changes to the functioning of natural systems, real costs of losing species, and the real cost of not being able to adapt and cope with climatic changes. It means internalizing and making rationale decisions about these costs now, so that Malagasy children will be able to ensure that the ledger adds up at the end of the century. But there is another definition of reconciliation, the coming together of opposing parties to r esolve conflict and find peace. Undoubtedly, this is the hardest part. It involves open and participatory dialogue that teases out seemingly intractable issues to find balanced solutions that everyone can live with. Reconciliation cannot be forced – people must want to engage, must be willing to expose truths and be open to exploring other perspectives. With a commitment to compromise and dignity, reconciliation brings healing and harmony. It is incumbent upon us, the conservation and development community, to support the Malagasy people in efforts to come together and embrace the linkages between people and their natural world through a process of reconciliation and thoughtful weighing of trade-offs to ensure a resilient Madagascar. The lessons and articles we share through this journal offer important insights and lessons to move us in that direction.Réflexions sur Madagascar, pays en évolution Je me suis sentie en même temps honorée et troublée quand ce grand journal m'a fait honneur en m'invitant à écrire une préface. Quel sujet pertinent sur le développement pourrait donc écrire une éco-conservationniste à un moment si critique de l'histoire de Madagascar ? Que pourrais-je proposer comme réflexion qui soit à la fois utile, empreinte d'espoir et raisonnable pendant cette période marquée par l'incertitude et le changement ? Pendant des semaines, j'ai été le témoin de l'agitation d'un pays à la recherche de paix intérieure pendant que des gens dévoués poursuivaient leurs efforts afin d'améliorer les conditions de vie et préserver le futur de ce pays merveilleux et unique. Alors que ces pensées me taraudaient face à un changement inévitable, trois concepts me sont venus à l'esprit. Les deux premiers me viennent directement de ma formation en écologie alors que le dernier a été façonné par mon expérience professionnelle acquise dans le développement. Ces concepts ne sont ni nouveaux ni révolutionnaires et ils ne vont vraisemblablement pas constituer la solution à tous les problèmes du développement et de la conservation de Madagascar actuels. Cependant, ils pourront conjointement tracer une voie dans la poursuite des travaux de conservation et de développement intégré pour ce pays en pleine évolution qu'est Madagascar. Le premier concept porte sur la connexité. Les connexions sont les clefs de l'écologie avec les espèces et les processus écologiques qui sont liés dans un système complexe. Nous avons ici des éléments naturels reliés à des gens, à leur culture au sein d'un réseau complexe de rapports, de désirs et de valeurs. À ce moment délicat de l'histoire de Madagascar, ces connexions doivent être à la fois comprises et exploitées. Des gens sains ne peuvent vivre dans un environnement malsain. Les décisions politiques sont intimement liées au bien-être des gens et à la survie de leurs ressources naturelles de base. Lorsque des choix sont faits, il est impératif que les décisions ne soient pas prises dans la hâte du cours terme pour satisfaire des besoins immédiats au détriment des besoins à plus long terme actuels et futurs. Un processus réfléchi qui englobe l'ensemble des rapports connexes régissant tous les habitants de Madagascar entre eux mais aussi avec leur patrimoine naturel n'est pas aisé. Cependant c'est en maintenant ces liens, en assurant que chaque élément du système est compris et mis en valeur, qu'un avenir plus prometteur, plus équitable et plus durable peut être assuré. Le deuxième concept porte sur la résilience. La résilience se réfère à la capacité de résister et de se ressaisir des chocs et perturbations tout en maintenant fonctionnalité et équilibre. Il est clair que Madagascar est en train de subir des chocs. Des cyclones plus fréquents et plus intenses, des changements climatiques, de graves épisodes de sécheresse et une pression sans précédent sur les ressources naturelles mettent en péril les capacités de se recomposer, qu'il s'agisse des gens ou de la nature. Les changements socio-politiques récents mettent assurément à l'épreuve la résilience de la société malgache. Les nouvelles voies pour le développement de Madagascar doivent fournir des options résilientes pour les gens de Madagascar. Le partage des acquis du développement entre un plus grand nombre de citoyens de la société malgache améliorera la résilience de Madagascar dans l'ensemble. Sauvegarder le patrimoine naturel, y compris la terre, l'eau, les forêts, la pêche et la diversité biologique crée un filet de sécurité social qui permettra à Madagascar de composer à court terme et de prospérer à long terme. Le dernier concept, qui est sans doute le plus ardu des trois, est le rapprochement. Dans le monde financier, nous procédons à des états de rapprochement de nos comptes. Des entrées et des sorties, des revenus et des dépenses qui sont contrôlés pour s'assurer que les soldes dans les livres s'équilibrent en fin de journée. Mais un tel rapprochement requiert un livre comptable honnête et clair dans lequel les revenus sont transparents et les charges réelles sont comprises. À Madagascar, cela signifie de prendre des décisions en matière de développement en incorporant les coûts réels liés au fait que certaines personnes marginalisées ou vulnérables de la société soient écartées du processus, les coûts réels des changements irrévocables et préjudiciables apportés au fonctionnement des systèmes naturels, les coûts réels de la perte d'espèces naturelles et les coûts réels liés au fait de ne pas être capable de s'adapter et de faire face aux changements climatiques. Il s'agit d'absorber ces coûts et de prendre dès à présent des décisions raisonnables à leur propos de sorte que les enfants de Madagascar seront capables d'assurer que les soldes dans les livres s'équilibrent à la fin du siècle. Il existe aussi une autre définition du rapprochement, celle de la rencontre de parties en opposition pour résoudre un conflit et trouver la paix. Il s'agit sans nul doute de l'acte le plus difficile à jouer car il repose sur un dialogue ouvert et participatif jusqu'à la limite des situations inextricables afin d'aboutir à des consensus équilibrés où chacun peut se retrouver. Le rapprochement ne peut être forcé – les gens doivent vouloir s'engager, doivent être disposés à exposer des vérités et s'ouvrir pour rechercher des alternatives. Avec la dignité et la volonté réelle de dialoguer, le rapprochement peut panser les plaies et apporter l'harmonie. Il nous incombe, à nous membres de la communauté de la conservation et du développement, de soutenir les Malgaches dans leurs efforts pour se rassembler et renforcer les liens entre les gens et la nature dans un processus de rapprochement avec des compromis soigneusement réfléchis pour assurer la résilience de Madagascar. Les leçons et les articles que nous partageons dans ce journal constituent ainsi des aperçus importants pour nous mener sur cette voie.

El ser humano con su inteligencia y conocimiento debería ser un elemento clave en el logro de un mejor desarrollo sostenible. Son evidentes los casos en que por desconocimiento o por omisión, se han desaprovechado o esterilizado los recursos naturales o no se han prevenido ni manejado adecuadamente los desastres naturales. El subsuelo y sus procesos tienen así implicaciones dentro del ordenamiento del territorio, con un sinnúmero de variables que generalmente son difíciles de cuantificar, ponderar e integrar. Se han hecho muchos intentos de diseños metodológicos para abordar el tema del ordenamiento territorial. En este documento se presenta una propuesta integral considerando con mayor relevancia al subsuelo más los aspectos bióticos y antrópicos. Este documento titulado "Consideración del subsuelo en el ordenamiento territorial" es una propuesta metodológica para la gestión del ordenamiento territorial de las regiones, haciendo énfasis en el subsuelo. Se demuestra como éste ocupa un papel determinante dentro de los criterios de construcción de propuestas, escenarios y finalmente en el desarrollo humano. Tres casos de estudios son desarrollados. Se tienen varias metodologías e infinidad de casos dentro del estado del arte que se revisó para el ordenamiento territorial. Mucho de lo reportado hace hincapié en lo urbano, turístico, económico, legal, político, cultural, entre muchas variables. Sin embargo, el subsuelo, la geología, los recursos minerales y las restricciones naturales allí presentes, son poco considerados en la mayoría de planes, metodologías y sobre todo en los casos de estudio. Esas son razones para proponer una metodología que haga énfasis en el subsuelo y que no solo se quede en lo conceptual, sino que se muestre con ejemplos concretos. El subsuelo estaría conformado por los recursos minerales e hídricos subterráneos, y también por las restricciones naturales, como la sismicidad, los volcanes, y deslizamientos, entre otros. Ello a su vez tiene implicaciones con la edafología, con las geoformas, con la geografía, con lo biótico (flora y fauna) y lo antrópico (poblacionales, educación, salud y cultura). Así que podría evidenciarse que considerar el subsuelo es fundamental dentro de cualquier proceso de ordenamiento del territorio. El subsuelo debería estar siempre presente dentro de las variables a considerar, ya que representa el largo plazo. El hecho de que algunos proyectos, ciudades, y regiones hayan sido planificados u ordenados sin considerar el subsuelo, y no hayan tenido incidentes, no quiere decir que sean correctos. Se tiene el caso de ciudades o regiones planificadas que después de varias décadas han sido arrasadas por deslizamientos, flujo de lodos, actividad sísmica, o simplemente no dispongan de materiales para la construcción, agua para consumo o energía. El propósito de este documento es el de presentar una metodología de ordenamiento territorial integral, holística, soportada en el subsuelo, que involucre diversos componentes y variables como el medio físico, biótico y antrópico. En la metodología se presenta un dimensionamiento de cómo las diferentes variables puede ser medidas, correlacionadas e integradas jerárquicamente con el fin de ir construyendo indicadores del geopotencial, biopotencial y el sociopotencial. Posteriormente se puede estimar la capacidad de acogida de un territorio frente a diferentes usos y a sus potenciales. Se van generando indicadores integrados frente a los diferentes conflictos ambientales y con los conocimientos de las personas que intervienen en los procesos de planificación y desarrollo, se pueden construir diferentes escenarios de ordenamiento territorial. La metodología se aplica para tres regiones en Colombia. La primera es una región de carácter amplio y diverso en cuanto a los aspectos geográficos, humanos y culturales, como lo es el Departamento de Cundinamarca, con más de 20 mil km2 de área, donde el componente físico tiene una mayor consideración. Un segundo caso es considerado a nivel más local, donde los diferentes componentes del sistema son tratados, haciendo énfasis en lo social y cultural hasta construir escenarios de desarrollo a nivel del municipio de La Peña. Y el tercer caso, es una propuesta para el ordenamiento de la minería de arcillas en la ciudad de Bogotá, donde se trata de racionalizar el uso del recurso mineral, haciéndolo en las zonas con mayor potencialidad y sin tanta dispersión en el territorio, haciéndolo compatible con otras demandas de uso del suelo principalmente. En los tres casos se parte de información del territorio, se estiman los diferentes potenciales y las restricciones, se determinan las capacidades de acogida, involucrando los diferentes actores, comunidades, políticos, y profesionales interdisciplinarios; además, se proponen diferentes escenarios de ordenamiento territorial, acorde con principios de alto consumo, de conservación o de sostenibilidad de la naturaleza. Esta metodología presenta algunas limitaciones y requiere ciertos ajustes para que tenga un mayor impacto en la sociedad civil; las limitaciones son más que todo de carácter político, ya que por más planteamientos objetivos que se hagan, la toma de decisiones está influenciada por los sentimientos, las presiones, los compromisos, y el ego. Sin embargo, se espera que esta contribución mas técnica desde las geociencias y los recursos naturales tenga una mayor relevancia en el desarrollo de la comunidad humana mundial. ; Human being with their intelligence and knowledge should be a key factor to achieve a better sustainable development. There are obvious cases which many resources have been sterilized due to decisions without non appropriate information or its omission, and natural hazards had had no prevention and even adequate management. The subsoil and its process have implications in the land use planning, with several variables that are difficult to quantify to average and to integrate when land use planning of the regions is made. Many methodological designs have made to approach the land use planning. This document tries to give a holistic proposal with more relevance to the subsoil, biotic and anthropogenic factors. This untitled document "Consideration of subsoil in the land use planning" is a methodological proposal for the regional management and planning for the regions with emphasis on the subsoil. It is demonstrated how subsoil has an important role when is used as a criteria to construct proposals, scenarios and human development. Three study cases are analyzed. There are several methodologies and infinity cases according to revised state of the art. Most of the reported does emphasis in urban, tourism, economy, legal and cultural among many variables. However subsoil, geology, mineral resources and natural hazards are few considered in most of plans, methodologies and study cases. These are reasons to propose a methodology with main emphasis in the subsoil, not only in conceptual terms, but with concrete equations and examples. Subsoil could be conformed by the mineral and groundwater resources and by the natural restrictions, such as the seismcity, volcanoes and landslides. All of these features have also some implications into the edaphology, geoforms, geography, biota (flora and fauna) and the anthropogenic matters (population, education, health and culture). In this way, the subsoil is a fundamental aspect in any territorial management process. Subsoil should be included within the set of variables to be considered. It represents de long term. The fact than some projects, cities and regions have been planned and ordered without considering the subsoil and any incident has occurred; does not mean that this is correct. In spite of the previous considerations, the cases of planned cities or regions are know, and after several decades have been devastated by landslides, floods, seismic activity, or simply they do not have building materials, water to consumption or energy. The purpose of this document is to show an integral, holistic methodology based in the subsoil, whose involve several and diverse components and variables such as the environment, biota and anthropogenic. The methodology shows a background of how the different variables can be measured, correlated and integrated hierarchically with the purpose of build indicators of the geopotential, biopotential and sociopotential. Subsequent, the carrying capacity of the territory for the different uses and to their potentials can be estimated. Integral indicators commence to be generated to respect of the different environmental conflicts and with the knowledge of the people who takes part in the processes of planning and development, different scenarios of environmental land use planning may be constructed. The methodology is applied for three regions in Colombia. First region is of huge and diverse character in the geographic, human and cultural aspects, as the Department of Cundinamarca, with and area more than 20.000 km2, in which the physical component has a greater relievance. A second case is considered as a local level, which the different components of the system are treated, making emphasis in the social and cultural matters to construct scenario of development in the La Peña municipality. The third case is a proposal for the ordering of the clay mining in the city of Bogotá, to rationalize the use of the mineral resource, doing it in the zones with greater potentiality and without much dispersion in the territory, doing it compatible with other use demands of the soil. The existent information of the territory is used for the three cases. The different potentials and restrictions are assessed, the carrying capacity is also determined, involving the different actors, such as the communities, politicians, and interdisciplinary professionals. Different scenarios of land use planning are proposed, according to the high consumption, conservation or sustainability principles for the nature. This methodology presents some limitations and requires certain adjustments to have a greater impact in the civil society. The limitations are mainly of the political character, because besides to many clear proposals, the decision making is influenced by the feelings, the pressures, the commitments, and the ego. Nevertheless, it is hope that this technical contribution from the geosciences and natural resources has a greater relevance in the development of the world-wide human community. ; Postprint (published version)

El ser humano con su inteligencia y conocimiento debería ser un elemento clave en el logro de un mejor desarrollo sostenible. Son evidentes los casos en que por desconocimiento o por omisión, se han desaprovechado o esterilizado los recursos naturales o no se han prevenido ni manejado adecuadamente los desastres naturales. El subsuelo y sus procesos tienen así implicaciones dentro del ordenamiento del territorio, con un sinnúmero de variables que generalmente son difíciles de cuantificar, ponderar e integrar. Se han hecho muchos intentos de diseños metodológicos para abordar el tema del ordenamiento territorial. En este documento se presenta una propuesta integral considerando con mayor relevancia al subsuelo más los aspectos bióticos y antrópicos. Este documento titulado "Consideración del subsuelo en el ordenamiento territorial" es una propuesta metodológica para la gestión del ordenamiento territorial de las regiones, haciendo énfasis en el subsuelo. Se demuestra como éste ocupa un papel determinante dentro de los criterios de construcción de propuestas, escenarios y finalmente en el desarrollo humano. Tres casos de estudios son desarrollados. Se tienen varias metodologías e infinidad de casos dentro del estado del arte que se revisó para el ordenamiento territorial. Mucho de lo reportado hace hincapié en lo urbano, turístico, económico, legal, político, cultural, entre muchas variables. Sin embargo, el subsuelo, la geología, los recursos minerales y las restricciones naturales allí presentes, son poco considerados en la mayoría de planes, metodologías y sobre todo en los casos de estudio. Esas son razones para proponer una metodología que haga énfasis en el subsuelo y que no solo se quede en lo conceptual, sino que se muestre con ejemplos concretos. El subsuelo estaría conformado por los recursos minerales e hídricos subterráneos, y también por las restricciones naturales, como la sismicidad, los volcanes, y deslizamientos, entre otros. Ello a su vez tiene implicaciones con la edafología, con las geoformas, con la geografía, con lo biótico (flora y fauna) y lo antrópico (poblacionales, educación, salud y cultura). Así que podría evidenciarse que considerar el subsuelo es fundamental dentro de cualquier proceso de ordenamiento del territorio. El subsuelo debería estar siempre presente dentro de las variables a considerar, ya que representa el largo plazo. El hecho de que algunos proyectos, ciudades, y regiones hayan sido planificados u ordenados sin considerar el subsuelo, y no hayan tenido incidentes, no quiere decir que sean correctos. Se tiene el caso de ciudades o regiones planificadas que después de varias décadas han sido arrasadas por deslizamientos, flujo de lodos, actividad sísmica, o simplemente no dispongan de materiales para la construcción, agua para consumo o energía. El propósito de este documento es el de presentar una metodología de ordenamiento territorial integral, holística, soportada en el subsuelo, que involucre diversos componentes y variables como el medio físico, biótico y antrópico. En la metodología se presenta un dimensionamiento de cómo las diferentes variables puede ser medidas, correlacionadas e integradas jerárquicamente con el fin de ir construyendo indicadores del geopotencial, biopotencial y el sociopotencial. Posteriormente se puede estimar la capacidad de acogida de un territorio frente a diferentes usos y a sus potenciales. Se van generando indicadores integrados frente a los diferentes conflictos ambientales y con los conocimientos de las personas que intervienen en los procesos de planificación y desarrollo, se pueden construir diferentes escenarios de ordenamiento territorial. La metodología se aplica para tres regiones en Colombia. La primera es una región de carácter amplio y diverso en cuanto a los aspectos geográficos, humanos y culturales, como lo es el Departamento de Cundinamarca, con más de 20 mil km2 de área, donde el componente físico tiene una mayor consideración. Un segundo caso es considerado a nivel más local, donde los diferentes componentes del sistema son tratados, haciendo énfasis en lo social y cultural hasta construir escenarios de desarrollo a nivel del municipio de La Peña. Y el tercer caso, es una propuesta para el ordenamiento de la minería de arcillas en la ciudad de Bogotá, donde se trata de racionalizar el uso del recurso mineral, haciéndolo en las zonas con mayor potencialidad y sin tanta dispersión en el territorio, haciéndolo compatible con otras demandas de uso del suelo principalmente. En los tres casos se parte de información del territorio, se estiman los diferentes potenciales y las restricciones, se determinan las capacidades de acogida, involucrando los diferentes actores, comunidades, políticos, y profesionales interdisciplinarios; además, se proponen diferentes escenarios de ordenamiento territorial, acorde con principios de alto consumo, de conservación o de sostenibilidad de la naturaleza. Esta metodología presenta algunas limitaciones y requiere ciertos ajustes para que tenga un mayor impacto en la sociedad civil; las limitaciones son más que todo de carácter político, ya que por más planteamientos objetivos que se hagan, la toma de decisiones está influenciada por los sentimientos, las presiones, los compromisos, y el ego. Sin embargo, se espera que esta contribución mas técnica desde las geociencias y los recursos naturales tenga una mayor relevancia en el desarrollo de la comunidad humana mundial. ; Human being with their intelligence and knowledge should be a key factor to achieve a better sustainable development. There are obvious cases which many resources have been sterilized due to decisions without non appropriate information or its omission, and natural hazards had had no prevention and even adequate management. The subsoil and its process have implications in the land use planning, with several variables that are difficult to quantify to average and to integrate when land use planning of the regions is made. Many methodological designs have made to approach the land use planning. This document tries to give a holistic proposal with more relevance to the subsoil, biotic and anthropogenic factors. This untitled document "Consideration of subsoil in the land use planning" is a methodological proposal for the regional management and planning for the regions with emphasis on the subsoil. It is demonstrated how subsoil has an important role when is used as a criteria to construct proposals, scenarios and human development. Three study cases are analyzed. There are several methodologies and infinity cases according to revised state of the art. Most of the reported does emphasis in urban, tourism, economy, legal and cultural among many variables. However subsoil, geology, mineral resources and natural hazards are few considered in most of plans, methodologies and study cases. These are reasons to propose a methodology with main emphasis in the subsoil, not only in conceptual terms, but with concrete equations and examples. Subsoil could be conformed by the mineral and groundwater resources and by the natural restrictions, such as the seismcity, volcanoes and landslides. All of these features have also some implications into the edaphology, geoforms, geography, biota (flora and fauna) and the anthropogenic matters (population, education, health and culture). In this way, the subsoil is a fundamental aspect in any territorial management process. Subsoil should be included within the set of variables to be considered. It represents de long term. The fact than some projects, cities and regions have been planned and ordered without considering the subsoil and any incident has occurred; does not mean that this is correct. In spite of the previous considerations, the cases of planned cities or regions are know, and after several decades have been devastated by landslides, floods, seismic activity, or simply they do not have building materials, water to consumption or energy. The purpose of this document is to show an integral, holistic methodology based in the subsoil, whose involve several and diverse components and variables such as the environment, biota and anthropogenic. The methodology shows a background of how the different variables can be measured, correlated and integrated hierarchically with the purpose of build indicators of the geopotential, biopotential and sociopotential. Subsequent, the carrying capacity of the territory for the different uses and to their potentials can be estimated. Integral indicators commence to be generated to respect of the different environmental conflicts and with the knowledge of the people who takes part in the processes of planning and development, different scenarios of environmental land use planning may be constructed. The methodology is applied for three regions in Colombia. First region is of huge and diverse character in the geographic, human and cultural aspects, as the Department of Cundinamarca, with and area more than 20.000 km2, in which the physical component has a greater relievance. A second case is considered as a local level, which the different components of the system are treated, making emphasis in the social and cultural matters to construct scenario of development in the La Peña municipality. The third case is a proposal for the ordering of the clay mining in the city of Bogotá, to rationalize the use of the mineral resource, doing it in the zones with greater potentiality and without much dispersion in the territory, doing it compatible with other use demands of the soil. The existent information of the territory is used for the three cases. The different potentials and restrictions are assessed, the carrying capacity is also determined, involving the different actors, such as the communities, politicians, and interdisciplinary professionals. Different scenarios of land use planning are proposed, according to the high consumption, conservation or sustainability principles for the nature. This methodology presents some limitations and requires certain adjustments to have a greater impact in the civil society. The limitations are mainly of the political character, because besides to many clear proposals, the decision making is influenced by the feelings, the pressures, the commitments, and the ego. Nevertheless, it is hope that this technical contribution from the geosciences and natural resources has a greater relevance in the development of the world-wide human community. ; Postprint (published version)

Einführung Tropische asiatische Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer zeigten rasches städtisches Wachstum dadurch, dass Bauern einwanderten, um ein besseres Leben in der Stadt zu suchen. Dadurch ergab sich in vielen Städten ein Mangel an geeigneter Infrastruktur und an sozialen Diensten. Die städtische Müllversorgung bildet keine Ausnahme; sie wird sogar oft an das Ende der Prio-ritätenliste für städtische Aufgabenpläne gestellt, da dabei zuerst die Gesetze und Verordnun-gen formuliert und umgesetzt werden müssen. Das Problem des nicht entsorgten städtischen Mülls führt (mit Sicherheit) zu Luftverschmutzung, Krankheit und zur Verseuchung des Bo-dens und des Wassers. Diese Probleme stehen in tropischen Klimaten im Zusammenhang mit hoher Temperatur und Feuchtigkeit, mit heftigem Regen und mit häufigen Überschwemmun-gen. Stehendes Wasser und Ausschwemmung aus dem Abfall werden sehr schnell zu Brutstät-ten von Insekten, Nagern und Bakterien, und damit zu einer Gesundheitsgefahr für Arbeiter und die allgemeine Bevölkerung. Darüber hinaus kann Wasser- und Grundwasserverschmut-zung/Kontamination zu einer ernsten Umweltzerstörung führen, mit direkten Auswirkungen auf die Wasserressourcen, und auf raschen Qualitätsverlust der pflanzlichen Erzeugnisse, des Rückgrates der meisten tropischen asiatischen Länder. Müllentsorgung und die Verantwortlichkeiten Lokale Regierungen müssen die öffentliche Gesundheit ihrer lokalen Bevölkerung sicherstellen und sind deshalb für die Müllentsorgung verantwortlich. Asiatische tropische Klimate sich rasch ändernde Müllzusammensetzung machen die Müllbehandlung und –entsorgung zu einer dauernden Herausforderung der Entscheidungsträger. Vor einer Entscheidung über das ver-wendete Entsorgungssystem muss eine geeignete Abfall-Charakterisierung treten. Diese Cha-rakterisierung liefert Kenntnisse über die Abfallmenge, die Feuchte, den Heizwert und die Menge der verschiedenen Komponenten im Abfallstrom, wie z. B.: organisches Material, Plas-tik, Papier, Karton, Holz, Textilien, Gummi, Leder, Glas, Metalle, Nichtmetalle, Steine und Keramiken. Darüber hinaus ist die Herausforderung, der sich asiatische Länder gegenüber se-hen, ein Mangel an Raum und damit wird die Platzierung eine Deponie zunehmend schwierig. Die Abfallwirtschaft ist eine kostenintensive, aber trotzdem notwendige Maßnahme, um das Wohlergehen sowohl der Bevölkerung als auch für die Umwelt sicher zu stellen. Es wird ge-schätzt, dass Asien im Jahr 2025 etwa 47 Milliarden US$ aufwenden muss, um 0,5 bis 1 Kg städtischen Müll je Person und Tag abzufahren und zu behandeln, oder 5 US$ je Kopf und Jahr. In Entwicklungsländern sind unzählige Leute nicht in der Lage, diese hohen Preise für die Ab-fallentsorgung zu zahlen. Deshalb liegt es in der Verantwortung der Regierung, die Abfallent-sorgung zu betreiben und zu finanzieren, um die Bevölkerung, die Gemeinde und die Umwelt zu schützen. Tropische asiatische Städte müssen jetzt bezahlbare und nachhaltige Verfahren für die Entsorgung ihrer zunehmenden Menge täglichen Abfalls benennen, wobei gleichzeitig auf minimale Umweltbelastung, auf soziale Akzeptanz und auf minimale Landverbrauch zu achten ist. Eine leicht anwendbare Entscheidungshilfe zur Wahl des geeignetesten Abfallbehandlungs-system der Gemeinde wäre deshalb sehr nützlich. Proposition Der Zweck dieser Dissertation war die Entwicklung eines nutzerfreundlichen Instrumentariums für das Verwaltungs- und Regierungspersonal in tropischen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenlän-der. 1. Diese Vorgehensweise basiert auf einem Netzwerk, das eine Liste ausgewählter entschei-dungsrelevanter Tatsachen in Betracht zieht, die nötig sind, um eine informierte Entschei-dung machen zu können. Das entscheidungshelfende Verfahren muss von Entscheidungs-trägern bei einer vorläufigen Feststellung des Abfallentsorgungs- und -behandlungssystems für ihre Gemeinde benutzt werden. 2. Tropische asiatische Städte müssen eine Reihe von Faktoren berücksichtigen, wenn sie über ihren Abfallwirtschaftsplan entscheiden. Dazu gehören die immerwechselnde Menge und Zusammensetzung des Abfalls infolge der zunehmenden Bevölkerungszahl und des Ein-kommens je Kopf, der hohe Feuchtigkeitsgrad, Verbrennungswärme-Werte und die oft be-grenzten finanziellen Möglichkeiten. 3. Ferner sind gesetzliche, politische, verwaltungstechnische, soziale, finanzielle, ökonomi-sche und technische Faktoren bestimmend. 4. Die Verwaltung muss dabei die Wichtigkeit jedes Teilschrittes der Abfallwirtschaft im Au-ge behalten, also Abfallerzeugung, Sammlung, Transport, Abfallcharakterisierung, Entsor-gung und Behandlung. 5. Die Rolle der lokalen Gemeinden in der Entscheidungsfindung ist nicht hoch genug einzu-schätzen; deshalb müssen Mitglieder der Gemeinde aktiv am Schutz der Umwelt und an der Verhinderung ihrer Zerstörung mitwirken. Mehrere Entscheidungshilfsverfahren für ver-schiedene Anwendungen wurden entwickelt. Jedoch zieht die Mehrzahl von ihnen nicht notwendigerweise eine öffentliche Teilnahme in Betracht, und sie sind auch nicht benutzer-freundlich. 6. Um die Komplexität der Probleme besser zu verstehen, die bei tropischen asiatischen Städ-ten auftreten, wurde die Innenstadt von Bangkok, Thailands größte Stadt und Hauptstadt, als repräsentativer Fall ausgewählt, für die Entsorgung der 9000 t Müll der täglich produ-ziert wird. Thailands Klima ist, besonders während der jährlichen Monsunzeit, heiß und feucht mit einer mittleren Temperatur von 28,4°C und einer Feuchtigkeit zwischen 70 und 100%. Die Gesetze und Verordnungen zeigen sehr deutlich an, wie wichtig die Behandlung des städtischen Abfalls genommen wird. Zahlreiche Interviews, verbunden mit der Durch-sicht von Dokumenten, Berichten und Ortsbesichtigungen ergaben Kenntnisse der zahlrei-chen Entscheidungsmaßnahmen, denen sich die städtischen Entscheidungsträger einer tro-pischen Stadt gegenüber sehen. Die Durchsicht und die Analyse der Entscheidungsmaß-nahmen in Bangkoks Abfallentsorgungsstrategien zeigten, wie das Entscheiden als Werk-zeug in verschiedenen asiatischen tropischen Städten benutzt werden kann. 7. Ein Entscheidungsrahmen wurde erstellt auf der Grundlage von Literatur-Recherchen und persönliche Erfahrungen, und anhand der in der Stadt Bangkok gesammelte Daten über-prüft. Die Entscheidungspunkte im Netzwerk umfassen eine allgemeine Beschreibung der Stadt, ihre klimatischen und hydrogeologischen Bedingungen, die Menge und Art des er-zeugten Mülls, einen Überblick über die bestehenden Anlagen und die existierenden Pro-gramme, öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit zu gewinnen, den sozioökonomischen Aspekt eines Abfallbehandlungssystems und die öffentliche Teilnahme. Es berücksichtigt ferner Ge-sundheits- und Sicherheitsüberlegungen im Zusammenhang mit Abfallentsorgungsmög-lichkeiten und ihrer Kosten. 8. Das Entscheidungsinstrumentarium hat als Ziel, ein geeignetes Abfallbehandlungssystem zu ermöglichen, das als Grundlage soziale, klimatische und technische Informationen be-nutzt. Ihre Einfachheit erlaubt einem Verwaltungspersonal, das wenig Erfahrung mit Ab-fallwirtschaft und Computerwissen besitzt, verschiedene Optionen zu analysieren und Sze-narien auszutesten. Des weiteren werden verschiedene Möglichkeiten überprüft, und es wird versucht, die Optionen in die Abfallwirtschaft zu integrieren. 9. Das Instrumentarium beinhaltet über ein Hundert geschlossene Fragen, die auf das Analy-sieren der Bedürfnisse und der gegenwärtigen Situation der Abfallwirtschaft einer be-stimmten Gesellschaft ausgerichtet sind und die es ermöglichen, ein geeignetes Abfallwirt-schaftssystem für die entsprechende Gesellschaft zu wählen. Diese Fragen hatten als Grundlage die Rahmen und Eckpunkte des Entscheidungsinstrumentariums. Dieses Instru-mentarium ist selbsterklärend, und gleichzeitig bietet es Flexibilität bei der Entscheidung, um wie viel Prozent des Abfalls wieder verwertet wird, kompostiert oder behandelt durch irgend eine von den sechs Behandlungsoptionen; Kompostierung, Vergärung, nicht-Verbrennungssysteme, Verbrennung, Deponierung und Energiegewinnung. 10. Die Ziele eines integrierten Abfallwirtschaftssystems können vom Benutzer geändert und modifiziert werden. Dies ermöglicht die Überprüfung verschiedener Szenarien und die Auswahl des geeignetesten Abfallbehandlungssystems. Das System kann sehr einfach sein und nur ein Behandlungssystem beinhalten oder mit einer Auswahl mehrere Behandlungs-systeme sehr kompliziert sein. In einigen Ländern ist es Vorschrift mehrere Systeme anzu-wenden. Integrierte Abfallwirtschaftssysteme, die mindestens zwei oder drei Abfallbe-handlungssysteme beinhalten, sind deshalb gefragt. 11. Die Ziele der Gesellschaft sind ausschlaggebend und sind die Schlüsselfaktoren für den Entscheidungsprozess. Die Menge der wiederverwertbaren Materialien, die Brauchbarkeit des Komposts, die Interesse an Vergärung, die Möglichkeit einer Verbrennungsanlage, das Verstehen eines nicht-Verbrennungssystems und die Verfügbarkeit von Land für Deponien, die Notwendigkeit für Elektrizität sind einige Schlüsselfaktoren die überlegt werden müs-sen. Integrierte Abfallwirtschaft ist wahrscheinlich die vernünftigste Vorgehensweise. Dies ermöglicht Flexibilität bei Abfallwirtschaftstechniken und ergänzt sie gegenseitig. 12. Öffentliche Verwaltungen können DMT als eine erste Bewertung der geeignetesten Tech-nologie benutzen. Des weiteren gibt DMT dem Verwaltungspersonal Flexibilität in ihrer Wahl bezüglich der Menge an wiederverwertbarem Abfall unter der Anwendung verschie-denen Technologien, welches eine gut konstruiertes und gut integriertes Abfallbehand-lungssystem für die Gesellschaft darstellt. Fazit Das Fazit ist: die Abfallwirtschaft in einem tropischen Schwellenland ist mit bestimmten Her-ausforderungen verbunden, die behandelt werden müssen. Ökonomische, technische und sozi-ale Kriterien müssen in Betracht gezogen werden bei der Wahl geeigneter städtischer Abfall-wirtschaftsysteme. Begrenzte finanzielle Möglichkeiten, Mangel an öffentlichem Bewusstsein und ein schwaches Wirtschaftssystem sind manchmal verantwortlich für die Wahl eines schlechtes Abfallbehandlungssystems, mit kurzsichtigen und über die Jahren teuren Entschei-dungen statt langfristigen und vernünftigeren Entscheidungen. Wetterbedingungen und die Knappheit an Land in Stadtnähe sind besondere Herausforderungen. Das Entscheidungsinstru-mentarium DMT macht die Identifizierung von Schlüsselfragen nötig für die Formulierung eines nachhaltigen Abfallwirtschaftskonzepts und für die Wahl eines technisch-, ökonomisch- und sozial-akzeptierbaren Abfallwirtschaftssystems, das besonders geeignet ist für tropische Klimate. Die Ergebnisse der DMT-Daten-Analyse bietet eine faire Auswertung für ein adäquates integ-riertes Abfallbehandlungssystems. Wenn einmal ein System identifiziert wurde, werden weitere Studien bezüglich Umsetzbarkeit und Anwendbarkeit nötig sein. Jedoch wird die Notwendig-keit, ausführliche Studien am multiplen Szenarien durchzuführen, minimiert, was erhebliche Ersparnisse für die Stadtverwaltung bedeutet. Eine Feasibility-Study und ein Masterplan haben zu folgen, um die standortspezifischen und Finanzierungsfragen zu klären sowie die Auswahl der spezifischen Anlagentechnik zu definieren. ; Abstract Developing and emerging tropical Asian countries have encountered fast urban development due to the migration of farmers seeking a better life in the city. This resulted in a lack of appro-priate infrastructure and inappropriate social services in many cities. Municipal solid waste management is no exception and is in fact often placed at the bottom of the list of priorities for the cities' appropriate urban management plans since laws and regulations must first be for-mulated and implemented. The problem of unmanaged municipal solid waste certainly leads to air pollution, disease, and to soil and water contamination. These problems in tropical climates are compounded with high temperature, high-level humidity, heavy rainfall and frequent flooding. Stagnant water and leachate from waste quickly become the breeding grounds of in-sects, rodents and bacteria, thus creating a health hazard for workers and local populations. Moreover, water and groundwater contamination may lead to serious environmental degrada-tion with direct impacts on water supplies, and in the fast degradation of agricultural products, the backbone of most tropical Asian countries. Many cities still allow or tolerate dumping of waste in uncontrolled sites, and open burning that disperses particulates that most likely contain dioxins and furans. Even with increasingly scarce land availability within or in proximity of the cities, sanitary landfill is still the most often cho-sen disposal method around Asia because of its lower cost when compared to modern treatment systems. Yet, most of these landfill sites do not have proper lining, daily covering, methane recovery devices, leachate control systems, nor do they have long-term closure and monitoring plans, which implies short and long-term hazards. Some municipalities opted for incineration, which usually entails high operation and maintenance costs because of the need for supple-mental fuel and often-inappropriate running conditions. Although tropical conditions appear to favor certain disposal systems such as composting, appropriate technology needs to be identi-fied in order to reduce operation and maintenance costs while ensuring good quality outputs; compost plants have often been closed because of poor quality products due to the high content of plastic and glass particulates in the finished product. Tropical Asian cities are now required to identify affordable and sustainable solutions for the management of their increasing amount of waste generated daily, while ensuring minimal environmental impact, social acceptance and minimal land use. The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a user-friendly decision-making tool for public administrators and government officials in tropical Asian developing and emerging cities. This tool was developed based on a list of selected decision-making issues necessary in making an informed decision. The decision-making tool is to be used by decision-makers in making a pre-liminary assessment of a most appropriate waste management and treatment system for their municipality. Tropical Asian cities must consider a number of issues when deciding on their waste management plan such as the continuously changing quantum and composition of waste associated with the increasing population and income per capita, the high humidity levels, and the often-limited financial resources. Other determinant factors include legal, political, institu-tional, social and technical issues. Furthermore, administrators must realize the importance of each stage involved in waste management, which includes waste generation, collection, trans-port, waste characteristics, disposal and treatment. To better understand the complexity of the issues involved in tropical Asian municipalities, the city of Bangkok, Thailand's largest city and capital, was selected as a case study for the management of its 9,000 tonnes of waste gen-erated daily. Numerous interviews, meetings along with the review of documents, reports and site visits offered an inside view of the tropical city's various decision-making issues towards its waste management plan, and examine specific problems encountered by the city's decision-makers. The review and analysis of the decision-making issues involved in Bangkok's waste management plan showed how the decision-making tool can be used in various Asian tropical cities. In conclusion, waste management in an emerging tropical country involves specific challenges that need to be addressed. Economical, technical and social criteria need to be fully understood as to capacitate government officials in the selection of the most appropriate urban waste man-agement system. Limited budgets, lack of public awareness and poor systems' management often cloud decision-makers in choosing what appears to be the best solution in the short term, but more costly over the years. Weather conditions and scarcity of land in proximity of the city make waste management especially challenging. The decision-making framework offers a tool to decision-makers, as to facilitate the understanding and identification of key issues necessary in the formulation of a sustainable urban waste management plan and in the selection of a tech-nically, economically and socially acceptable integrated MSW management system. A detailed feasibility study and master plan will follow the preliminary study as to define the plant´s specifications, its location and its financing.

Einführung Tropische asiatische Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer zeigten rasches städtisches Wachstum dadurch, dass Bauern einwanderten, um ein besseres Leben in der Stadt zu suchen. Dadurch ergab sich in vielen Städten ein Mangel an geeigneter Infrastruktur und an sozialen Diensten. Die städtische Müllversorgung bildet keine Ausnahme; sie wird sogar oft an das Ende der Prio-ritätenliste für städtische Aufgabenpläne gestellt, da dabei zuerst die Gesetze und Verordnun-gen formuliert und umgesetzt werden müssen. Das Problem des nicht entsorgten städtischen Mülls führt (mit Sicherheit) zu Luftverschmutzung, Krankheit und zur Verseuchung des Bo-dens und des Wassers. Diese Probleme stehen in tropischen Klimaten im Zusammenhang mit hoher Temperatur und Feuchtigkeit, mit heftigem Regen und mit häufigen Überschwemmun-gen. Stehendes Wasser und Ausschwemmung aus dem Abfall werden sehr schnell zu Brutstät-ten von Insekten, Nagern und Bakterien, und damit zu einer Gesundheitsgefahr für Arbeiter und die allgemeine Bevölkerung. Darüber hinaus kann Wasser- und Grundwasserverschmut-zung/Kontamination zu einer ernsten Umweltzerstörung führen, mit direkten Auswirkungen auf die Wasserressourcen, und auf raschen Qualitätsverlust der pflanzlichen Erzeugnisse, des Rückgrates der meisten tropischen asiatischen Länder. Müllentsorgung und die Verantwortlichkeiten Lokale Regierungen müssen die öffentliche Gesundheit ihrer lokalen Bevölkerung sicherstellen und sind deshalb für die Müllentsorgung verantwortlich. Asiatische tropische Klimate sich rasch ändernde Müllzusammensetzung machen die Müllbehandlung und –entsorgung zu einer dauernden Herausforderung der Entscheidungsträger. Vor einer Entscheidung über das ver-wendete Entsorgungssystem muss eine geeignete Abfall-Charakterisierung treten. Diese Cha-rakterisierung liefert Kenntnisse über die Abfallmenge, die Feuchte, den Heizwert und die Menge der verschiedenen Komponenten im Abfallstrom, wie z. B.: organisches Material, Plas-tik, Papier, Karton, Holz, Textilien, Gummi, Leder, Glas, Metalle, Nichtmetalle, Steine und Keramiken. Darüber hinaus ist die Herausforderung, der sich asiatische Länder gegenüber se-hen, ein Mangel an Raum und damit wird die Platzierung eine Deponie zunehmend schwierig. Die Abfallwirtschaft ist eine kostenintensive, aber trotzdem notwendige Maßnahme, um das Wohlergehen sowohl der Bevölkerung als auch für die Umwelt sicher zu stellen. Es wird ge-schätzt, dass Asien im Jahr 2025 etwa 47 Milliarden US$ aufwenden muss, um 0,5 bis 1 Kg städtischen Müll je Person und Tag abzufahren und zu behandeln, oder 5 US$ je Kopf und Jahr. In Entwicklungsländern sind unzählige Leute nicht in der Lage, diese hohen Preise für die Ab-fallentsorgung zu zahlen. Deshalb liegt es in der Verantwortung der Regierung, die Abfallent-sorgung zu betreiben und zu finanzieren, um die Bevölkerung, die Gemeinde und die Umwelt zu schützen. Tropische asiatische Städte müssen jetzt bezahlbare und nachhaltige Verfahren für die Entsorgung ihrer zunehmenden Menge täglichen Abfalls benennen, wobei gleichzeitig auf minimale Umweltbelastung, auf soziale Akzeptanz und auf minimale Landverbrauch zu achten ist. Eine leicht anwendbare Entscheidungshilfe zur Wahl des geeignetesten Abfallbehandlungs-system der Gemeinde wäre deshalb sehr nützlich. Proposition Der Zweck dieser Dissertation war die Entwicklung eines nutzerfreundlichen Instrumentariums für das Verwaltungs- und Regierungspersonal in tropischen Entwicklungs- und Schwellenlän-der. 1. Diese Vorgehensweise basiert auf einem Netzwerk, das eine Liste ausgewählter entschei-dungsrelevanter Tatsachen in Betracht zieht, die nötig sind, um eine informierte Entschei-dung machen zu können. Das entscheidungshelfende Verfahren muss von Entscheidungs-trägern bei einer vorläufigen Feststellung des Abfallentsorgungs- und -behandlungssystems für ihre Gemeinde benutzt werden. 2. Tropische asiatische Städte müssen eine Reihe von Faktoren berücksichtigen, wenn sie über ihren Abfallwirtschaftsplan entscheiden. Dazu gehören die immerwechselnde Menge und Zusammensetzung des Abfalls infolge der zunehmenden Bevölkerungszahl und des Ein-kommens je Kopf, der hohe Feuchtigkeitsgrad, Verbrennungswärme-Werte und die oft be-grenzten finanziellen Möglichkeiten. 3. Ferner sind gesetzliche, politische, verwaltungstechnische, soziale, finanzielle, ökonomi-sche und technische Faktoren bestimmend. 4. Die Verwaltung muss dabei die Wichtigkeit jedes Teilschrittes der Abfallwirtschaft im Au-ge behalten, also Abfallerzeugung, Sammlung, Transport, Abfallcharakterisierung, Entsor-gung und Behandlung. 5. Die Rolle der lokalen Gemeinden in der Entscheidungsfindung ist nicht hoch genug einzu-schätzen; deshalb müssen Mitglieder der Gemeinde aktiv am Schutz der Umwelt und an der Verhinderung ihrer Zerstörung mitwirken. Mehrere Entscheidungshilfsverfahren für ver-schiedene Anwendungen wurden entwickelt. Jedoch zieht die Mehrzahl von ihnen nicht notwendigerweise eine öffentliche Teilnahme in Betracht, und sie sind auch nicht benutzer-freundlich. 6. Um die Komplexität der Probleme besser zu verstehen, die bei tropischen asiatischen Städ-ten auftreten, wurde die Innenstadt von Bangkok, Thailands größte Stadt und Hauptstadt, als repräsentativer Fall ausgewählt, für die Entsorgung der 9000 t Müll der täglich produ-ziert wird. Thailands Klima ist, besonders während der jährlichen Monsunzeit, heiß und feucht mit einer mittleren Temperatur von 28,4°C und einer Feuchtigkeit zwischen 70 und 100%. Die Gesetze und Verordnungen zeigen sehr deutlich an, wie wichtig die Behandlung des städtischen Abfalls genommen wird. Zahlreiche Interviews, verbunden mit der Durch-sicht von Dokumenten, Berichten und Ortsbesichtigungen ergaben Kenntnisse der zahlrei-chen Entscheidungsmaßnahmen, denen sich die städtischen Entscheidungsträger einer tro-pischen Stadt gegenüber sehen. Die Durchsicht und die Analyse der Entscheidungsmaß-nahmen in Bangkoks Abfallentsorgungsstrategien zeigten, wie das Entscheiden als Werk-zeug in verschiedenen asiatischen tropischen Städten benutzt werden kann. 7. Ein Entscheidungsrahmen wurde erstellt auf der Grundlage von Literatur-Recherchen und persönliche Erfahrungen, und anhand der in der Stadt Bangkok gesammelte Daten über-prüft. Die Entscheidungspunkte im Netzwerk umfassen eine allgemeine Beschreibung der Stadt, ihre klimatischen und hydrogeologischen Bedingungen, die Menge und Art des er-zeugten Mülls, einen Überblick über die bestehenden Anlagen und die existierenden Pro-gramme, öffentliche Aufmerksamkeit zu gewinnen, den sozioökonomischen Aspekt eines Abfallbehandlungssystems und die öffentliche Teilnahme. Es berücksichtigt ferner Ge-sundheits- und Sicherheitsüberlegungen im Zusammenhang mit Abfallentsorgungsmög-lichkeiten und ihrer Kosten. 8. Das Entscheidungsinstrumentarium hat als Ziel, ein geeignetes Abfallbehandlungssystem zu ermöglichen, das als Grundlage soziale, klimatische und technische Informationen be-nutzt. Ihre Einfachheit erlaubt einem Verwaltungspersonal, das wenig Erfahrung mit Ab-fallwirtschaft und Computerwissen besitzt, verschiedene Optionen zu analysieren und Sze-narien auszutesten. Des weiteren werden verschiedene Möglichkeiten überprüft, und es wird versucht, die Optionen in die Abfallwirtschaft zu integrieren. 9. Das Instrumentarium beinhaltet über ein Hundert geschlossene Fragen, die auf das Analy-sieren der Bedürfnisse und der gegenwärtigen Situation der Abfallwirtschaft einer be-stimmten Gesellschaft ausgerichtet sind und die es ermöglichen, ein geeignetes Abfallwirt-schaftssystem für die entsprechende Gesellschaft zu wählen. Diese Fragen hatten als Grundlage die Rahmen und Eckpunkte des Entscheidungsinstrumentariums. Dieses Instru-mentarium ist selbsterklärend, und gleichzeitig bietet es Flexibilität bei der Entscheidung, um wie viel Prozent des Abfalls wieder verwertet wird, kompostiert oder behandelt durch irgend eine von den sechs Behandlungsoptionen; Kompostierung, Vergärung, nicht-Verbrennungssysteme, Verbrennung, Deponierung und Energiegewinnung. 10. Die Ziele eines integrierten Abfallwirtschaftssystems können vom Benutzer geändert und modifiziert werden. Dies ermöglicht die Überprüfung verschiedener Szenarien und die Auswahl des geeignetesten Abfallbehandlungssystems. Das System kann sehr einfach sein und nur ein Behandlungssystem beinhalten oder mit einer Auswahl mehrere Behandlungs-systeme sehr kompliziert sein. In einigen Ländern ist es Vorschrift mehrere Systeme anzu-wenden. Integrierte Abfallwirtschaftssysteme, die mindestens zwei oder drei Abfallbe-handlungssysteme beinhalten, sind deshalb gefragt. 11. Die Ziele der Gesellschaft sind ausschlaggebend und sind die Schlüsselfaktoren für den Entscheidungsprozess. Die Menge der wiederverwertbaren Materialien, die Brauchbarkeit des Komposts, die Interesse an Vergärung, die Möglichkeit einer Verbrennungsanlage, das Verstehen eines nicht-Verbrennungssystems und die Verfügbarkeit von Land für Deponien, die Notwendigkeit für Elektrizität sind einige Schlüsselfaktoren die überlegt werden müs-sen. Integrierte Abfallwirtschaft ist wahrscheinlich die vernünftigste Vorgehensweise. Dies ermöglicht Flexibilität bei Abfallwirtschaftstechniken und ergänzt sie gegenseitig. 12. Öffentliche Verwaltungen können DMT als eine erste Bewertung der geeignetesten Tech-nologie benutzen. Des weiteren gibt DMT dem Verwaltungspersonal Flexibilität in ihrer Wahl bezüglich der Menge an wiederverwertbarem Abfall unter der Anwendung verschie-denen Technologien, welches eine gut konstruiertes und gut integriertes Abfallbehand-lungssystem für die Gesellschaft darstellt. Fazit Das Fazit ist: die Abfallwirtschaft in einem tropischen Schwellenland ist mit bestimmten Her-ausforderungen verbunden, die behandelt werden müssen. Ökonomische, technische und sozi-ale Kriterien müssen in Betracht gezogen werden bei der Wahl geeigneter städtischer Abfall-wirtschaftsysteme. Begrenzte finanzielle Möglichkeiten, Mangel an öffentlichem Bewusstsein und ein schwaches Wirtschaftssystem sind manchmal verantwortlich für die Wahl eines schlechtes Abfallbehandlungssystems, mit kurzsichtigen und über die Jahren teuren Entschei-dungen statt langfristigen und vernünftigeren Entscheidungen. Wetterbedingungen und die Knappheit an Land in Stadtnähe sind besondere Herausforderungen. Das Entscheidungsinstru-mentarium DMT macht die Identifizierung von Schlüsselfragen nötig für die Formulierung eines nachhaltigen Abfallwirtschaftskonzepts und für die Wahl eines technisch-, ökonomisch- und sozial-akzeptierbaren Abfallwirtschaftssystems, das besonders geeignet ist für tropische Klimate. Die Ergebnisse der DMT-Daten-Analyse bietet eine faire Auswertung für ein adäquates integ-riertes Abfallbehandlungssystems. Wenn einmal ein System identifiziert wurde, werden weitere Studien bezüglich Umsetzbarkeit und Anwendbarkeit nötig sein. Jedoch wird die Notwendig-keit, ausführliche Studien am multiplen Szenarien durchzuführen, minimiert, was erhebliche Ersparnisse für die Stadtverwaltung bedeutet. Eine Feasibility-Study und ein Masterplan haben zu folgen, um die standortspezifischen und Finanzierungsfragen zu klären sowie die Auswahl der spezifischen Anlagentechnik zu definieren. ; Abstract Developing and emerging tropical Asian countries have encountered fast urban development due to the migration of farmers seeking a better life in the city. This resulted in a lack of appro-priate infrastructure and inappropriate social services in many cities. Municipal solid waste management is no exception and is in fact often placed at the bottom of the list of priorities for the cities' appropriate urban management plans since laws and regulations must first be for-mulated and implemented. The problem of unmanaged municipal solid waste certainly leads to air pollution, disease, and to soil and water contamination. These problems in tropical climates are compounded with high temperature, high-level humidity, heavy rainfall and frequent flooding. Stagnant water and leachate from waste quickly become the breeding grounds of in-sects, rodents and bacteria, thus creating a health hazard for workers and local populations. Moreover, water and groundwater contamination may lead to serious environmental degrada-tion with direct impacts on water supplies, and in the fast degradation of agricultural products, the backbone of most tropical Asian countries. Many cities still allow or tolerate dumping of waste in uncontrolled sites, and open burning that disperses particulates that most likely contain dioxins and furans. Even with increasingly scarce land availability within or in proximity of the cities, sanitary landfill is still the most often cho-sen disposal method around Asia because of its lower cost when compared to modern treatment systems. Yet, most of these landfill sites do not have proper lining, daily covering, methane recovery devices, leachate control systems, nor do they have long-term closure and monitoring plans, which implies short and long-term hazards. Some municipalities opted for incineration, which usually entails high operation and maintenance costs because of the need for supple-mental fuel and often-inappropriate running conditions. Although tropical conditions appear to favor certain disposal systems such as composting, appropriate technology needs to be identi-fied in order to reduce operation and maintenance costs while ensuring good quality outputs; compost plants have often been closed because of poor quality products due to the high content of plastic and glass particulates in the finished product. Tropical Asian cities are now required to identify affordable and sustainable solutions for the management of their increasing amount of waste generated daily, while ensuring minimal environmental impact, social acceptance and minimal land use. The purpose of this dissertation was to develop a user-friendly decision-making tool for public administrators and government officials in tropical Asian developing and emerging cities. This tool was developed based on a list of selected decision-making issues necessary in making an informed decision. The decision-making tool is to be used by decision-makers in making a pre-liminary assessment of a most appropriate waste management and treatment system for their municipality. Tropical Asian cities must consider a number of issues when deciding on their waste management plan such as the continuously changing quantum and composition of waste associated with the increasing population and income per capita, the high humidity levels, and the often-limited financial resources. Other determinant factors include legal, political, institu-tional, social and technical issues. Furthermore, administrators must realize the importance of each stage involved in waste management, which includes waste generation, collection, trans-port, waste characteristics, disposal and treatment. To better understand the complexity of the issues involved in tropical Asian municipalities, the city of Bangkok, Thailand's largest city and capital, was selected as a case study for the management of its 9,000 tonnes of waste gen-erated daily. Numerous interviews, meetings along with the review of documents, reports and site visits offered an inside view of the tropical city's various decision-making issues towards its waste management plan, and examine specific problems encountered by the city's decision-makers. The review and analysis of the decision-making issues involved in Bangkok's waste management plan showed how the decision-making tool can be used in various Asian tropical cities. In conclusion, waste management in an emerging tropical country involves specific challenges that need to be addressed. Economical, technical and social criteria need to be fully understood as to capacitate government officials in the selection of the most appropriate urban waste man-agement system. Limited budgets, lack of public awareness and poor systems' management often cloud decision-makers in choosing what appears to be the best solution in the short term, but more costly over the years. Weather conditions and scarcity of land in proximity of the city make waste management especially challenging. The decision-making framework offers a tool to decision-makers, as to facilitate the understanding and identification of key issues necessary in the formulation of a sustainable urban waste management plan and in the selection of a tech-nically, economically and socially acceptable integrated MSW management system. A detailed feasibility study and master plan will follow the preliminary study as to define the plant´s specifications, its location and its financing.

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) is designed to assess the key constraints and opportunities facing Mozambique as it strives to sustain robust growth and macroeconomic stability while accelerating poverty reduction and promoting greater economic inclusiveness. The SCD is organized into six chapters. Chapter two describes the evolution of poverty and inequality, explores their regional and demographic dimensions, and identifies strategies for accelerating poverty reduction. Chapter three analyzes key economic constraints and opportunities, identifying the drivers of recent growth, describing developments in the real sector and assessing emerging challenges associated with the rise of the extractive industries. Chapter four examines the inclusiveness of growth, presenting an in-depth analysis of the labor market, the social sectors and the ongoing urbanization process. Chapter five discusses fiscal, institutional, political, social and environmental risks to the sustainability of growth and poverty reduction. Chapter six completes the analysis by identifying a set of priority objectives for accelerating progress on the World Bank's twin goals of eliminating extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

The country's forest areas occupy 21.7 million ha (approximately 27.6 percent of its total surface area), and are inhabited by close to 10 percent of its total population. The forest sector generates a variety of timber and non-timber products and eco-services. The Turkish government has put great effort into reforestation and forest management, increasing the total area of forests. In their tenth national development plan (2014-2018), the Turkish Government has decided to take a series of actions, including quantifying the value of natural resources and their ecosystem services and taking them into account in making and implementing policy decisions. In response to the government's request for technical assistance in valuing natural resources, the World Bank assisted the Directorate General of Forestry (DGF) under the Turkish Ministry of Forestry and Water Affairs (MoFWA) in conducting a pilot study in the Bolu forest area to identify and quantify the forest products and services used by humans and assess the possibility to expand and scale up forest valuation. The purpose of this report is to summarize the study's findings and discuss its policy implications and next steps. The report contains six chapters, chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of the forest sector in Turkey, from physical conditions to institutional aspects. Chapter three presents the justification and application of forest valuation and accounting, while the valuation methods for forest products and services are introduced in chapter four. Chapter five discusses the findings and results of the Bolu pilot study. The policy implications, areas for improvement, and recommendations for scaling up are discussed in chapter six.

What are the socioeconomic impacts of resource abundance? Are these effects different at the national and local levels? How could resource booms benefit (or harm) local communities? This paper reviews a vast literature examining these questions, with an emphasis on empirical works. First, the evidence and theoretical arguments behind the so-called resource curse, and other impacts at the country level, are reviewed. This cross-country literature highlights the importance of institutions. Then, a simple analytical framework is developed to understand how resource booms could impact local communities, and the available empirical evidence is examined. This emerging literature exploits within-country variation and is opening new ways to think about the relation between natural resources and economic development. The main message is that others factors, such as market mechanisms and local spillovers, are also relevant for understanding the impact of resource abundance. Finally, the paper discusses issues related to fiscal decentralization and provides ideas for future research.