This paper is a case study of an open small economy whose development and growth is based largely on foreign trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). One purpose of the paper is to uncover the causes that have created such a development pattern. Estonia is a former socialist economy, part of the Former Soviet Union (FSU), which introduced comprehensive structural and institutional reforms in the 1990s. The country's transition to a market economy has been enhanced by integration with the European Union (EU), which was very important in evolution of institutions. Other research in this paper concerns the role of external anchors upon economic development; that is, mandates that reflect the values, objectives, and aims of a socioeconomic alliance, and which also frame Estonia's economic policy. One conclusion of the paper is that the EU integration process played an important role in creating and supporting development of a liberal, private sector-based market economy. Implementation of the rules, standards, and norms helped to increase the competitiveness of Estonian companies by improving market access to the EU and other markets. The external anchor concept is related to the international agents. A critical factor for future development and structural changes will be transforming Estonia from a transition economy to an innovation economy. The paper examines the role of the information and communication technology (ICT) sector and Skype in this development. The case of Skype demonstrates the much wider impact of the new telecommunication technology on society. Estonia's development in this field is empirical evidence that location, production, technology, and timing along with external anchors represent a catalyst for change.
Contract and labour law: towards a more flexile concept of employer? The contract within the sphere of the labour law seems to rediscover a "second youth" , lend itself to act as from "pole of attraction" regarding most important and debated profiles of surveying of the labour law doctrine. If the contract, from the point of view of its "pathological" use, captured the attentions of theoretical and practical operators of labour law, above all regarding the issue of the entrepreneurial removal from the so called "garantismo individuale e collettivo" through the phenomenon of the illegal hiring, on the physiological side the institute in question is led back, in a generally residual dimension, the within of the widest phenomenon of the outsourcing. The intervention of the legislator in matter, always increasing and more detailed regarding the past, reproposes, however in partially new terms, the problematic, particularly "felt" in years seventy of the past century, of the protection, legislative and contractual, of the labour in "small" enterprise. The relative criticalities to the anchorage of the protection to a dimensional requirement, any it is, united to those relative ones to the uncertainty and to the caducity of the "borders" of the enterprise of XXI the century, placed in a perspective, by now, not more exclusively national, make to meet towards the labour law discipline of the contract an interesting series of interpretative and reconstructive issues, a lot on the level of qualifying and protective profile, than on that, to "regulatory" one. These are, as mentioned, profiles that are interlaced and "crossed" among them, which are not compartmentalized, within a dimension that is also European and international. The qualifying profile, in fact, proposes, next and beyond the distinction between public and private contract, the most traditional e controversial profile of the distinction between contract, temporary work and illegal hiring, on one side, and transfer of undertaking and/or a its business unit and contract (above all contract of services), from the other. The protective profile in strict sense finds a progressive development and "updating" of not unknown institutes and instruments to the labour law discipline, like the so called social clause of fair treatment, or in the public contracts or in those private ones. At European level, the crucial theme of labour protection concerning the posting of workers in the framework of the provision of services is regulated, mostly, by the Directive CE 96/71, which tries to link social and economic-competitive considerations in a context of mobility of labour and services within the European market. The attempt of linking the foretold aspects seems to be the central fulcrum of the ulterior characterizing profile of the labour law discipline of the contract and that I have characterized like regulative profile. With regard to, and for a first example, it is analyzed, on one side, technique of the jointly legal responsibility, which redistributes the employer "responsibilities" with reference to the economic and normative treatments to guarantee to the interested workers within the relationships of contractual integration arising from the outsourcing processes, and, from the other, trade-union control of the phenomena of outsourcing. The embryonic regulative profile shows, among other things, the emerging of new institutional and socio-economic actors (like authorities, observatories, but also not governmental organizations, consumer and environmental associations), and instruments (like global framework agreements, codes of conduct, but also the, so called, indici di congruità), that prelude to incipient and additional, regarding those "traditional ones", forms of labour regulation within outsourcing processes, also in a global perspective. Finally, as regards to the contract in particular, an interconnected analysis of the three above qualified profiles offers to us an interesting reconstructive framework in order to inquire a possible and embryonic tendency towards a "flexibilisation" of the "employer concept", at least in terms of Co-employment, that links competitive regulation, labour protection and socio-economic development in a systematic and coherent framework. 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This study is part of the ongoing dialogue on reforming trade logistics, and facilitating trade and transportation in Central and South Asian countries. It presents key findings from several rounds of first-hand observations and interviews conducted with multiple stakeholders to measure the performance of key road transport corridors across the region, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and to some extent, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The study identifies obstacles that hinder efficient movement of goods along transport corridors, and offers recommendations for short- and medium-term reforms for participating country governments with particular emphasis on the performance of border crossings. The overall objective of this study is to provide basic information on transport corridor performance so that national policy makers and private sectors have a basis to open discussions on how they might cooperate to facilitate international trade and transport by addressing infrastructure and operational bottlenecks in the region.
Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation. ; The authors would like to thank the many colleagues who contributed to collection and phenotypic characterisation of the clinical samples, as well as genotyping and analysis of the GWA data. Special mentions are as follows: CGSB participating cohorts: Some of the data utilised in this study were provided by the Understanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study, which is led by the Institute for Social and Economic Research at the University of Essex and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. The data were collected by NatCen and the genome wide scan data were analysed by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute. The Understanding Society DAC have an application system for genetics data and all use of the data should be approved by them. The application form is at: https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/about/health/data. The Airwave Health Monitoring Study is funded by the UK Home Office, (Grant number 780-TETRA) with additional support from the National Institute for Health Research Imperial College Health Care NHS Trust and Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre. We thank all participants in the Airwave Health Monitoring Study. This work used computing resources provided by the MRC- funded UK MEDical Bioinformatics partnership programme (UK MED-BIO) (MR/L01632X/1). Paul Elliott wishes to acknowledge the Medical Research Council and Public Health England (MR/L01341X/1) for the MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health; and the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Health Impact of Environmental Hazards (HPRU-2012-10141). Paul Elliott is supported by the UK Dementia Research Institute which receives its funding from UK DRI Ltd funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Alzheimer's Society and Alzheimer's Research UK. Paul Elliott is associate director of the Health Data Research UK London funded by a consortium led by the UK Medical Research Council. SHIP (Study of Health in Pomerania) and SHIP-TREND both represent population-based studies. SHIP is supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF); grants 01ZZ9603, 01ZZ0103, and 01ZZ0403) and the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG); grant GR 1912/5-1). SHIP and SHIP-TREND are part of the Community Medicine Research net (CMR) of the Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University Greifswald (EMAU) which is funded by the BMBF as well as the Ministry for Education, Science and Culture and the Ministry of Labor, Equal Opportunities, and Social Affairs of the Federal State of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania. The CMR encompasses several research projects that share data from SHIP. SNP typing of SHIP and SHIP-TREND using the Illumina Infinium HumanExome BeadChip (version v1.0) was supported by the BMBF (grant 03Z1CN22). LifeLines authors thank Behrooz Alizadeh, Annemieke Boesjes, Marcel Bruinenberg, Noortje Festen, Ilja Nolte, Lude Franke, Mitra Valimohammadi for their help in creating the GWAS database, and Rob Bieringa, Joost Keers, René Oostergo, Rosalie Visser, Judith Vonk for their work related to data-collection and validation. The authors are grateful to the study participants, the staff from the LifeLines Cohort Study and Medical Biobank Northern Netherlands, and the participating general practitioners and pharmacists. LifeLines Scientific Protocol Preparation: Rudolf de Boer, Hans Hillege, Melanie van der Klauw, Gerjan Navis, Hans Ormel, Dirkje Postma, Judith Rosmalen, Joris Slaets, Ronald Stolk, Bruce Wolffenbuttel; LifeLines GWAS Working Group: Behrooz Alizadeh, Marike Boezen, Marcel Bruinenberg, Noortje Festen, Lude Franke, Pim van der Harst, Gerjan Navis, Dirkje Postma, Harold Snieder, Cisca Wijmenga, Bruce Wolffenbuttel. The authors wish to acknowledge the services of the LifeLines Cohort Study, the contributing research centres delivering data to LifeLines, and all the study participants. Niek Verweij was supported by NWO VENI (016.186.125). Fenland authors thank Fenland Study volunteers for their time and help, Fenland Study general Practitioners and practice staff for assistance with recruitment, and Fenland Study Investigators, Co-ordination team and the Epidemiology Field, Data and Laboratory teams for study design, sample/data collection and genotyping. We thank all ASCOT trial participants, physicians, nurses, and practices in the participating countries for their important contribution to the study. In particular we thank Clare Muckian and David Toomey for their help in DNA extraction, storage, and handling. We would also like to acknowledge the Barts and The London Genome Centre staff for genotyping the Exome Chip array. The BRIGHT study is extremely grateful to all the patients who participated in the study and the BRIGHT nursing team. We would also like to thank the Barts Genome Centre staff for their assistance with this project. Patricia B. Munroe, Mark J. Caulfield, and Helen R. Warren wish to acknowledge the NIHR Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Unit at Barts and The London, Queen Mary University of London, UK for support. Mark J. Caulfield are Senior National Institute for Health Research Investigators. EMBRACE Collaborating Centres are: Coordinating Centre, Cambridge: Daniel Barrowdale, Debra Frost, Jo Perkins. North of Scotland Regional Genetics Service, Aberdeen: Zosia Miedzybrodzka, Helen Gregory. Northern Ireland Regional Genetics Service, Belfast: Patrick Morrison, Lisa Jeffers. West Midlands Regional Clinical Genetics Service, Birmingham: Kai-ren Ong, Jonathan Hoffman. South West Regional Genetics Service, Bristol: Alan Donaldson, Margaret James. East Anglian Regional Genetics Service, Cambridge: Joan Paterson, Marc Tischkowitz, Sarah Downing, Amy Taylor. Medical Genetics Services for Wales, Cardiff: Alexandra Murray, Mark T. Rogers, Emma McCann. St James's Hospital, Dublin & National Centre for Medical Genetics, Dublin: M. John Kennedy, David Barton. South East of Scotland Regional Genetics Service, Edinburgh: Mary Porteous, Sarah Drummond. Peninsula Clinical Genetics Service, Exeter: Carole Brewer, Emma Kivuva, Anne Searle, Selina Goodman, Kathryn Hill. West of Scotland Regional Genetics Service, Glasgow: Rosemarie Davidson, Victoria Murday, Nicola Bradshaw, Lesley Snadden, Mark Longmuir, Catherine Watt, Sarah Gibson, Eshika Haque, Ed Tobias, Alexis Duncan. South East Thames Regional Genetics Service, Guy's Hospital London: Louise Izatt, Chris Jacobs, Caroline Langman. North West Thames Regional Genetics Service, Harrow: Huw Dorkins. Leicestershire Clinical Genetics Service, Leicester: Julian Barwell. Yorkshire Regional Genetics Service, Leeds: Julian Adlard, Gemma Serra-Feliu. Cheshire & Merseyside Clinical Genetics Service, Liverpool: Ian Ellis, Claire Foo. Manchester Regional Genetics Service, Manchester: D Gareth Evans, Fiona Lalloo, Jane Taylor. North East Thames Regional Genetics Service, NE Thames, London: Lucy Side, Alison Male, Cheryl Berlin. Nottingham Centre for Medical Genetics, Nottingham: Jacqueline Eason, Rebecca Collier. Northern Clinical Genetics Service, Newcastle: Alex Henderson, Oonagh Claber, Irene Jobson. Oxford Regional Genetics Service, Oxford: Lisa Walker, Diane McLeod, Dorothy Halliday, Sarah Durell, Barbara Stayner. The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust: Ros Eeles, Nazneen Rahman, Elizabeth Bancroft, Elizabeth Page, Audrey Ardern-Jones, Kelly Kohut, Jennifer Wiggins, Jenny Pope, Sibel Saya, Natalie Taylor, Zoe Kemp and Angela George. North Trent Clinical Genetics Service, Sheffield: Jackie Cook, Oliver Quarrell, Cathryn Bardsley. South West Thames Regional Genetics Service, London: Shirley Hodgson, Sheila Goff, Glen Brice, Lizzie Winchester, Charlotte Eddy, Vishakha Tripathi, Virginia Attard. Wessex Clinical Genetics Service, Princess Anne Hospital, Southampton: Diana Eccles, Anneke Lucassen, Gillian Crawford, Donna McBride, Sarah Smalley. Understanding Society Scientific Group is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/H029745/1) and the Wellcome Trust (WT098051). Paul D.P. Pharoah is funded by Cancer Research UK (C490/A16561). SHIP is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the German Research Foundation (DFG); see acknowledgements for details. F.W. Asselbergs is funded by the Netherlands Heart Foundation (2014T001) and supported by UCL Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. The LifeLines Cohort Study, and generation and management of GWAS genotype data for the LifeLines Cohort Study is supported by the Netherlands Organization of Scientific Research NWO (grant 175.010.2007.006), the Economic Structure Enhancing Fund (FES) of the Dutch government, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science, the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Sports, the Northern Netherlands Collaboration of Provinces (SNN), the Province of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, the University of Groningen, Dutch Kidney Foundation and Dutch Diabetes Research Foundation. Niek Verweij is supported by Horizon 2020, Marie Sklodowska-Curie (661395) and ICIN-NHI. Phenotype collection in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 was supported by the UK's Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), The Royal Society and The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government. Phenotype collection in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 was supported by Age UK (The Disconnected Mind project). Genotyping was supported by Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology (Pilot Fund award), Age UK, and the Royal Society of Edinburgh. The work was undertaken by The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the BBSRC and Medical Research Council (MRC) is gratefully acknowledged. Paul W. Franks is supported by Novo Nordisk, the Swedish Research Council, Påhlssons Foundation, Swedish Heart Lung Foundation (2020389), and Skåne Regional Health Authority. Nicholas J Wareham, Claudia Langenberg, Robert A Sacott, and Jian'an Luan are supported by the MRC (MC_U106179471 and MC_UU_12015/1). The BRIGHT study was supported by the Medical Research Council of Great Britain (Grant Number G9521010D); and by the British Heart Foundation (Grant Number PG/02/128). The BRIGHT study is extremely grateful to all the patients who participated in the study and the BRIGHT nursing team. The Exome Chip genotyping was funded by Wellcome Trust Strategic Awards (083948 and 085475). We would also like to thank the Barts Genome Centre staff for their assistance with this project. The ASCOT study and the collection of the ASCOT DNA repository was supported by Pfizer, New York, NY, USA, Servier Research Group, Paris, France; and by Leo Laboratories, Copenhagen, Denmark. Genotyping of the Exome Chip in ASCOT-SC and ASCOT-UK was funded by the National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR). Anna F. Dominiczak was supported by the British Heart Foundation (Grant Numbers RG/07/005/23633, SP/08/005/25115); and by the European Union Ingenious HyperCare Consortium: Integrated Genomics, Clinical Research, and Care in Hypertension (grant number LSHM-C7-2006-037093). Nilesh J. Samani is supported by the British Heart Foundation and is a Senior National Institute for Health Research Investigator. Panos Deloukas is supported by the British Heart Foundation (RG/14/5/30893), and NIHR, where his work forms part of the research themes contributing to the translational research portfolio of Barts Cardiovascular Biomedical Research Centre which is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The LOLIPOP study is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, the British Heart Foundation (SP/04/002), the Medical Research Council (G0601966, G0700931), the Wellcome Trust (084723/Z/08/Z, 090532 & 098381) the NIHR (RP-PG-0407-10371), the NIHR Official Development Assistance (ODA, award 16/136/68), the European Union FP7 (EpiMigrant, 279143) and H2020 programs (iHealth-T2D, 643774). We acknowledge support of the MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, and the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit on Health Impact of Environmental Hazards. The work was carried out in part at the NIHR/Wellcome Trust Imperial Clinical Research Facility. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. We thank the participants and research staff who made the study possible. JC is supported by the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council under its Singapore Translational Research Investigator (STaR) Award (NMRC/STaR/0028/2017). The research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Exeter Clinical Research Facility and ERC grant 323195; SZ-245 50371-GLUCOSEGENES-FP7-IDEAS-ERC to T.M. Frayling. Hanieh Yaghootkar is funded by Diabetes UK RD Lawrence fellowship (grant:17/0005594) Anna Dominiczak was funded by a BHF Centre of Research Excellence Award (RE/13/5/30177) GSCAN participating cohorts: The Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA), Principal Investigators: B. Porjesz, V. Hesselbrock, H. Edenberg, L. Bierut. The study includes eleven different centers: University of Connecticut (V. Hesselbrock); Indiana University (H.J. Edenberg, J. Nurnberger Jr., T. Foroud); University of Iowa (S. Kuperman, J. Kramer); SUNY Downstate (B. Porjesz); Washington University in St. Louis (L. Bierut, J. Rice, K. Bucholz, A. Agrawal); University of California at San Diego (M. Schuckit); Rutgers University (J. Tischfield, A. Brooks); Department of Biomedical and Health Informatics, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia; Department of Genetics, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia PA (L. Almasy), Virginia Commonwealth University (D. Dick), Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (A. Goate), and Howard University (R. Taylor). Other COGA collaborators include: L. Bauer (University of Connecticut); J. McClintick, L. Wetherill, X. Xuei, Y. Liu, D. Lai, S. O'Connor, M. Plawecki, S. Lourens (Indiana University); G. Chan (University of Iowa; University of Connecticut); J. Meyers, D. Chorlian, C. Kamarajan, A. Pandey, J. Zhang (SUNY Downstate); J.-C. Wang, M. Kapoor, S. Bertelsen (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai); A. Anokhin, V. McCutcheon, S. Saccone (Washington University); J. Salvatore, F. Aliev, B. Cho (Virginia Commonwealth University); and Mark Kos (University of Texas Rio Grande Valley). A. Parsian and M. Reilly are the NIAAA Staff Collaborators. COGA investigators continue to be inspired by their memories of Henri Begleiter and Theodore Reich, founding PI and Co-PI of COGA, and also owe a debt of gratitude to other past organizers of COGA, including Ting-Kai Li, P. Michael Conneally, Raymond Crowe, and Wendy Reich, for their critical contributions. COGA investigators are very grateful to Dr. Bruno Buecher without whom this project would not have existed. The authors also thank all those at the GECCO Coordinating Center for helping bring together the data and people that made this project possible. ASTERISK, a GECCO sub-study, also thanks all those who agreed to participate in this study, including the patients and the healthy control persons, as well as all the physicians, technicians and students. As part of the GECCO sub-studies, CPS-II authors thank the CPS-II participants and Study Management Group for their invaluable contributions to this research. The authors would also like to acknowledge the contribution to this study from central cancer registries supported through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Program of Cancer Registries, and cancer registries supported by the National Cancer Institute Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program. Another GECCO sub-study, HPFS and NHS investigators would like to acknowledge Patrice Soule and Hardeep Ranu of the Dana Farber Harvard Cancer Center High-Throughput Polymorphism Core who assisted in the genotyping for NHS, HPFS under the supervision of Dr. Immaculata Devivo and Dr. David Hunter, Qin (Carolyn) Guo and Lixue Zhu who assisted in programming for NHS and HPFS. HPFS and NHS investigators also thank the participants and staff of the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study, for their valuable contributions as well as the following state cancer registries for their help: AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NE, NH, NJ, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, TN, TX, VA, WA, WY. The authors assume full responsibility for analyses and interpretation of these data. PLCO, a substudy within GECCO, was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, and additionally supported by contracts from the Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS. Additionally, a subset of control samples were genotyped as part of the Cancer Genetic Markers of Susceptibility (CGEMS) Prostate Cancer GWAS1, CGEMS pancreatic cancer scan (PanScan)2, 3, and the Lung Cancer and Smoking study4. The prostate and PanScan study datasets were accessed with appropriate approval through the dbGaP online resource (http://cgems.cancer.gov/data/) accession numbers phs000207.v1.p1 and phs000206.v3.p2, respectively, and the lung datasets were accessed from the dbGaP website (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gap) through accession number phs000093.v2.p2. For the lung study, the GENEVA Coordinating Center provided assistance with genotype cleaning and general study coordination, and the Johns Hopkins University Center for Inherited Disease Research conducted genotyping. The authors thank Drs. Christine Berg and Philip Prorok, Division of Cancer Prevention, National Cancer Institute, the Screening Center investigators and staff or the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, Mr. Tom Riley and staff, Information Management Services, Inc., Ms. Barbara O'Brien and staff, Westat, Inc., and Drs. Bill Kopp and staff, SAIC-Frederick. Most importantly, we acknowledge the study participants for their contributions to making this study possible. We also thank all participants and staff of the André and France Desmarais Montreal Heart Institute's (MHI) Biobank. The genotyping of the MHI Biobank was done at the MHI Pharmacogenomic Centre and funded by the MHI Foundation. HRS is supported by the National Institute on Aging (NIA U01AG009740). The genotyping was funded separately by the National Institute on Aging (RC2 AG036495, RC4 AG039029). Our genotyping was conducted by the NIH Center for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) at Johns Hopkins University. Genotyping quality control and final preparation of the data were performed by the University of Michigan School of Public Health. CHDExome+ participating cohorts: BRAVE: The BRAVE study genetic epidemiology working group is a collaboration between the Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, UK, the Centre for Control of Chronic Diseases, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh and the National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Dhaka, Bangladesh. CCHS, CIHDS, and CGPS collaborators thank participants and staff of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, Copenhagen Ischemic Heart Disease Study, and the Copenhagen General Population Study for their important contributions. EPIC-CVD: CHD case ascertainment and validation, genotyping, and clinical chemistry assays in EPIC-CVD were principally supported by grants awarded to the University of Cambridge from the EU Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233), the UK Medical Research Council (G0800270) and British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002), and the European Research Council (268834). We thank all EPIC participants and staff for their contribution to the study, the laboratory teams at the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit for sample management and Cambridge Genomic Services for genotyping, Sarah Spackman for data management, and the team at the EPIC-CVD Coordinating Centre for study coordination and administration. MORGAM: The work by MORGAM collaborators has been sustained by the MORGAM Project's recent funding: European Union FP 7 projects ENGAGE (HEALTH-F4-2007-201413), CHANCES (HEALTH-F3-2010-242244) and BiomarCaRE (278913). This has supported central coordination, workshops and part of the activities of the The MORGAM Data Centre, at THL in Helsinki, Finland. MORGAM Participating Centres are funded by regional and national governments, research councils, charities, and other local sources. PROSPER: collaborators have received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° HEALTH-F2-2009-223004 PROMIS: The PROMIS collaborators are are thankful to all the study participants in Pakistan. Recruitment in PROMIS was funded through grants available to investigators at the Center for Non-Communicable Diseases, Pakistan (Danish Saleheen and Philippe Frossard) and investigators at the University of Cambridge, UK (Danish Saleheen and John Danesh). Field-work, genotyping, and standard clinical chemistry assays in PROMIS were principally supported by grants awarded to the University of Cambridge from the British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, EU Framework 6-funded Bloodomics Integrated Project, Pfizer. We would like to acknowledge the contributions made by the following individuals who were involved in the field work and other administrative aspects of the study: Mohammad Zeeshan Ozair, Usman Ahmed, Abdul Hakeem, Hamza Khalid, Kamran Shahid, Fahad Shuja, Ali Kazmi, Mustafa Qadir Hameed, Naeem Khan, Sadiq Khan, Ayaz Ali, Madad Ali, Saeed Ahmed, Muhammad Waqar Khan, Muhammad Razaq Khan, Abdul Ghafoor, Mir Alam, Riazuddin, Muhammad Irshad Javed, Abdul Ghaffar, Tanveer Baig Mirza, Muhammad Shahid, Jabir Furqan, Muhammad Iqbal Abbasi, Tanveer Abbas, Rana Zulfiqar, Muhammad Wajid, Irfan Ali, Muhammad Ikhlaq, Danish Sheikh and Muhammad Imran. INTERVAL: Participants in the INTERVAL randomised controlled trial were recruited with the active collaboration of NHS Blood and Transplant England (www.nhsbt.nhs.uk), which has supported field work and other elements of the trial. DNA extraction and genotyping was funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), the NIHR BioResource (http://bioresource.nihr.ac.uk/) and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (www.cambridge-brc.org.uk). The academic coordinating centre for INTERVAL was supported by core funding from: NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1), British Heart Foundation (RG/13/13/30194), and NIHR Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. A complete list of the investigators and contributors to the INTERVAL trial is provided in reference.
Brazil grew 2.4 percent per year on average in the last 25 years-somewhat less than Latin America, a good deal less than the world, far less than the emerging countries of Asia in the same period, and indeed far less than Brazil itself in previous decades. If anything stands out favorably in recent Brazilian experience, it is not growth but stabilization and the successful opening of the economy. The purpose of this paper is more modest. It is limited to setting out the authors' particular view of recent efforts to consolidate democracy in Brazil while controlling inflation and resuming economic growth. At the same time the paper presents, as objectively as possible, some thoughts on the limits but also the relevance of action by political leaders to set a course and circumvent obstacles to that process. Here and there, the paper refers to the experiences of other Latin American countries, especially Argentina, Chile, and Mexico, not to offer a full fledged comparative analysis but merely to note contrasts and similarities that may shed light on the peculiarities of the Brazilian case and suggest themes for a more wide-ranging exchange of views.
At less than three weeks away from the national election, an Obama victory, even if not inevitable, seems today quite likely. Political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia, in his on-line publication Crystal Ball, has now put Obama over the magic number of 270 electoral votes (50% plus 1 of all electoral votes), with potentially many more votes to be added from close races in several states. Barack Obama leads John McCain in the polls by ten points, and the McCain campaign is in disarray. It has stopped campaigning in some states (i.e. Michigan) and is trying to hold on to other states that traditionally vote Republican but are about to be lost for the first time in decades (Virginia, North Carolina). Barring a huge end-of-October surprise, this trend will firm up and determine the result in favor of Obama. Democrats are also poised to win a majority of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives. The so-called "coattails effect" of the presidential race on the congressional election is starting to worry Republicans, who are becoming very critical of John McCain's campaign. Considering that the electoral race was at a continuous dead heat in the last two months, it is worth discussing what has determined the steady rise of Obama in the polls. First and foremost, of course, was the financial crisis. The astounding institutional banking crisis that originated from the meltdown of the real estate market, the resulting credit crunch, have created an anxiety not seen since the Great Depression of 1930. Historically, the Democratic Party has a better reputation for salvaging the economy in times of crisis. In addition to the historical record, several political scientists, Alan Abramowitz from Emory and Larry Bartels from Princeton among others, have developed models based on the correlation between economic growth and presidential election results, and have found that when the economy is not growing in the second quarter of the election year, the party in power almost without exception loses the election. But just as important as the economic disarray has been the reaction of each candidate to that crisis, and the style of leadership that emerged from it. One week before the Wall Street debacle, McCain had said that" the fundamentals of the economy were strong". That unfortunate statement immediately gave an unequivocal ring of truth to Obama's claim that his opponent was "out of touch" with the realities of the country, and it will probably be remembered in history books as the critical turning point of this election. In the first debate, both candidates were cautious about the rescue plan (which had not yet been fully developed by the Treasury) and answered the questions on the economy as if little had changed. However, two days earlier, McCain had suspended his campaign and announced he was needed in Washington to "help solve the crisis". He had also demanded that the debate be cancelled because "times were too serious for that type of exchange". This was a gamble taken by his campaign and it backfired badly, as Obama (who also flew to Washington and attended the same meeting at the invitation of Bush) insisted that because times were difficult, the debate had become even more important and should take place: Americans were now paying attention to who should be the one to lead them out of this mess. Ultimately, McCain backed down and attended the debate, after no agreement on the Rescue Plan came out of that White House meeting. Although he did very well, was energetic and on message, his erratic pre-debate behavior worked against him by providing ammunition to the opposition, who were thereby able to portray him as unpredictable and over excitable, not the steady hand you would want at the helm of a nation in turmoil. Still, most experts and observers considered the first debate a draw, with both candidates passing their respective tests: Obama proving he was presidential enough to hold the office, and McCain reminding the public of his experience and dedication to the country. However, the polls showed most voters had chosen Obama as the winner. The second debate was in a town-hall meeting format, but with strict control of time and of the questioning. Veteran journalist Tom Brockaw moderated it with a strong hand, but the questions were lame and it was a lackluster performance on the part of everybody involved. However, the body language proved an asset to Obama, who listened respectfully, did not take any notes, and when needed, moved comfortably around the set to approach the public. On the other hand, McCain had a nervous restlessness about him that put him at a disadvantage; he kept going back to his corner to make notes on his opponent's comments and at a certain point referred to Obama as "that one" in what was perceived by many to be an expression of slight contempt. This was compounded by his aimless wondering around the set, at times having to be called on by Brockaw for blocking the moderator's teleprompter. In comparison, Obama looked very relaxed and cool, exuding that kind of calm and self-confidence that most people seem to be yearning for during these difficult times. It paid off, and his numbers started mounting dramatically on the next day. Even before that debate, the McCain campaign had thrown all self-restraint overboard and was using every trick in the book of negative campaigning. Thus, the name of William Ayres has become very widely known across the country, as a "domestic terrorist" who organized a bombing campaign of the Pentagon in the 60s, and as a "close associate to Barack Obama". Ayres was the founder of the Weather Underground movement, which protested against the Vietnam War four decades ago. Today he is a university professor and an educational reformer who has worked with many politicians (both Republican and Democrat) to change the educational system in Chicago. The more McCain slips in the poll numbers, the more we hear allusions to Obama's radical "associate", even if their contacts have been sporadic, that they met only a few years ago, and that Obama was eight years old when Ayres was a radical anti-war activist. McCain, however, did not bring this up in the face-to-face debate, perhaps for fear of opening the door to his own connection to Charles Keating, the convicted Savings and Loan scandal figure of the 1980s, whose investigation by regulators McCain had tried to suppress. McCain's vice-presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, on the other hand, has at every opportunity mentioned Ayres' name at her rallies, working her base up to frenzy to the point of violent threats, with some yelling "off with his (Obama's) head". For good measure, she added underhanded allusions to his "foreignness" (read: race) by saying for example: "He is not a man who sees America the way you and I see it." This decision to play the "guilt by association" game and to associate Obama with terrorism (of any kind) has led to a violent escalation in the rhetoric and has roused the base, but does not seem to be working with the independent voters, as poll after poll continues to show. On the contrary, it seems to have hurt McCain: at last weekend rallies he had to "correct" several of his own supporters who in their questions to him claimed Obama was an "Arab", a terrorist, a criminal. After one of such claims, McCain very determinedly took the microphone away from a woman and told her: "No, Ma'm, that is not true. He is a decent family man with whom I just happen to have disagreements on policy." Surely this disappointed the base, which has been led to believe differently. In all fairness to Senator McCain, he is not a racist; in fact, he is a very moderate, middle of the road Republican who has taken on his own party on matters of campaign finance reform and immigration. Why, then, is he playing this self-destructive game? The only logical answer is: out of desperation, as his numbers slip and several senior Republicans have turned against him. The constant chasing of the headlines, the constant spewing of "rapid responses and frantic emails" has resulted in an incoherent message to the detriment of his own personal appeal. Yesterday Bill Kristol, political analyst and commentator of impeccable conservative credentials, and editor of the Weekly Standard, in an op-ed column in the New York Times, called for McCain to fire his campaign staff, "set himself free" and run as the "cheerful, open and accessible candidate" he was in the past. He said it is the "strategic incoherence and operational incompetence of his staff that has made his campaign dysfunctional…and toxic." To this, McCain retorted that "even Bill Kristol had bought into the Obama line" and that he himself was "exactly where he wanted to be, with the whole media establishment against him." However, Republicans are starting to distance themselves from McCain, who they think is dragging the whole party down and will be responsible for loss of Senate and House Republican races, too. To compound his plight even more, yesterday a bipartisan ethics report by the state legislature of Alaska found Sarah Palin abused her power when she fired the Police Commissioner over a family vendetta against a state trooper (an affair already nicknamed "Troopergate" by the media). Voters seem to have tuned McCain out; it is no longer a question of message. It is a question of leadership, of calm amid the turmoil, of whom Americans want to answer the proverbial three-in-the-morning phone call that rings in the White House. Confronted with the angst and fury of John McCain, his impulsive change of course and mixed messages at a time of enormous economic uncertainty, voters are turning in larger numbers to Obama, who has remained unflustered in the face of nasty accusations. Composed, focused on the economy, he dismisses the violent rhetoric of his opponents, and prefers to focus on the difficulty of the times and on the specifics of his policy solutions. He has sharpened his message, spoken directly to the issues and remained a sea of calm amidst the turmoil, a source of optimism amidst the gloom and doom of the headlines. In the meantime, his campaign has registered hundreds of thousands of voters in many states that have traditionally voted Republican, and that today are surprisingly in play for the Democrats (namely Virginia, North Carolina). The McCain campaign is financially weaker and had to pull out of Michigan, where he was down eight points, in order to concentrate more resources in Florida, where the race is still tight, but where the economy has been severely hit by the real estate bust and by the reduction in tourism due to the credit crunch, all of which may favor Obama. In spite of the 270 electoral votes that put him over the top, with potentially many more votes to be added from close races in several states, an Obama win is still not assured. McCain is defending states that went for Bush in the last two elections and which he absolutely must win in order to have a slim chance at the whole, and therefore he can't be on the offense as much in other states. If Obama wins Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina, he will be the first non-Southerner Democrat to carry these states since John F. Kennedy. That explains the frustration of Republican Party stalwarts with McCain, his irresponsible choice of running mate and the unraveling of his campaign. Ironically, in the first debate McCain accused Obama of not knowing the difference between a tactic and a strategy. It actually seems it is McCain who has confused the two. Populism as a political tactic is common, but as the main strategy it is ineffective and harmful for the country. At times like this, when people are worried about their jobs, their pensions and their health care, the populist message of anger and division is not what the average voter is looking for. They are looking instead for some measure of optimism and reassurance. That is why they have turned to Obama. To win, the McCain campaign should stop playing the race–and-terrorism card, and instead bring up a concept which surprisingly has been all but ignored in this election: that of Washington being swept up by a "one-party rule", with Democrats controlling not only the White House but also Congress. No checks and balances, no limits on government in this country of Lockean traditions? That is a scenario that few Americans would look forward too, even in difficult times. It may win McCain more votes than destructive insinuations about his opponent. Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science and Geography Director, ODU Model United Nations Program Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia
Frente a un escenario de creciente competencia por los recursos hídricos entre el riego y otros sectores, como el urbano o el industrial, el riego enfrenta el desafío de diseñar e implementar estrategias para aumentar el aprovechamiento del agua, garantizando la equidad de su uso y evitando la degradación de su calidad o el agotamiento de sus fuentes no renovables. Esto implica cambios de conciencia e institucionales necesarios para que los agricultores se vuelvan más activos y asuman responsabilidades compartidas de la gestión del agua en su región. La transferencia de la gestión del riego (IMT, sus siglas en inglés) implica delegar responsabilidades o transferir la autoridad de gestión para algunas o todas las funciones de desvío y/o distribución de agua, mantenimiento y rehabilitación de la infraestructura, gestión de disputas relacionadas con el agua, asignación de derechos de agua o planificación de calendarios de cultivos a asociaciones de usuarios del agua (WUA, su acrónimo en inglés) u otros tipos de organizaciones no gubernamentales. Las experiencias sobre la IMT en diferentes partes del mundo han sido muy variadas, al igual que los enfoques adoptados en su implementación y los impactos de las reformas sobre el desempeño de los sistemas de riego. Para la evaluación del desempeño de un sistema de riego es recomendable utilizar indicadores simples, efectivos y universalmente aplicables. Su estimación con herramientas vinculadas a las tecnologías de la información y comunicación sobre grandes áreas irrigadas han tomado relevancia y en especial sobre aquellos indicadores relacionados con el balance hídrico que requieren de una estimación precisa. Estos se relacionan directamente con una mejora en la estimación de la evapotranspiración (ET), principal fuente de consumo de agua en un sistema de riego. En la región noroeste de la República Argentina, en la provincia de Santiago del Estero, se encuentra ubicado el sistema de riego del Río Dulce (SRRD). A pesar de no contar con un programa de gobierno vinculado a la IMT, desde el año 2006 al 2011 se formalizaron convenios de transferencia de la operación y mantenimiento (O&M) de los canales secundarios hasta nivel de derivaciones de riego (último nivel del sistema colectivo de riego) con siete WUAs. En el SRRD se ha evaluado su desempeño en varias ocasiones, pero en ningún caso se han relacionado los resultados con el tipo de gestión, posiblemente porque la gestión del riego no había sido transferida a los agricultores o no tenía un período suficientemente largo como para ser evaluado. Esta tesis doctoral presenta una comparación del desempeño de dos subsistemas del SRRD donde en uno la O&M se ha transferido a las WUAs y en el otro la gestión permanece bajo responsabilidad del gobierno. Para evaluar el desempeño se emplearon indicadores comúnmente utilizados y validados y utilizando técnicas de evaluación social se contrastó la actitud de los usuarios en relación a sus sistemas productivos, percepción sobre el servicio de suministro de agua y su participación e involucramiento en las WUAs. En el subsistema donde se transfirió la gestión a los usuarios la gestión permitió horarios de entrega flexibles que facilitaron un patrón de cultivo diversificado, una mayor intensidad de riego y dieron como resultado un mayor uso de agua, aunque no implicó un aumento en el suministro relativo de riego, lo que denotó en general una subirrigación. Los agricultores del subsistema transferido estaban más conscientes de los problemas del servicio de riego que los agricultores del subsistema no transferido. La percepción de problemas en el subsistema no transferido aumentó con el nivel de profesionalismo y conocimiento técnico del agricultor. La transmisión de solicitudes y quejas de los agricultores a los administradores fue más transparente en el subsistema transferido que en aquel donde no se había transferido su gestión. Con la necesidad de información precisa y disgregada, clave para el cálculo de indicadores de desempeño de un sistema de riego, se incluyó una evaluación comparativa de los dos enfoques basados en teledetección para la estimación de la evapotranspiración de los cultivos (ETc), componente clave del consumo de agua de la agricultura. Los enfoques evaluados fueron el balance de energía superficial y el enfoque basado en FAO56, que utiliza la capacidad de los índices de vegetación (VI, por sus siglas en inglés) para rastrear el coeficiente de cultivo. En un primer análisis se utilizaron coeficientes de cultivo basales derivados de VI específicos de campo obtenidos para 1743 campos utilizando series de 9 a 29 imágenes satelitales a lo largo de la campaña de riego 2014-2015. En un segundo análisis se utilizaron 30 campos (cultivados con algodón y maíz) donde se conocían los programas de riego reales de la campaña de riego 2014-2015. En estos campos se calculó un balance hídrico del suelo en la zona de la raíz utilizando el enfoque dual de FAO56 con coeficientes de cultivo basales derivados del VI específicos de campo. La ETc obtenida del balance hídrico se comparó con la ETc estimada usando un enfoque de coeficiente de cultivo único que usa VI específico de campo y tiene en cuenta la evaporación del suelo (enfoque sintético), y con la ETc obtenida del balance de energía superficial con el modelo de mapeo de la evapotranspiración a alta resolución con calibración internalizada (METRIC, por sus siglas en inglés) facilitado por la aplicación Earth Engine Evapotranspiration Flux (EEFlux) de Google, Inc. En un tercer análisis de simulación analizó los errores en la estimación de la ETc debido a la interpolación a valores diarios de coeficientes de cultivo y coeficientes de cultivo basales determinados en intervalos hipotéticos de paso de satélites de más de un día. Las curvas de coeficiente de cultivo basales derivadas de VI obtenidas para los 1743 campos del primer análisis estaban por debajo del coeficiente de cultivo basal estándar adoptado localmente (no específico del campo). La ETc en las 8005 ha cubiertas por este análisis fue aproximadamente un 20% mayor cuando se aplicaron curvas estándar no específicas de campo que cuando se aplicaron curvas derivadas de VI. Esta diferencia señaló la importancia de utilizar estimaciones específicas de campo de ETc. En el análisis realizado en los 30 campos seleccionados, la ETc estimada utilizando el enfoque basado en VI coincidió bien con la ETc obtenida del balance hídrico del suelo excepto en condiciones de déficit hídrico. Los coeficientes de cultivo obtenidos para estos campos utilizando el modelo METRIC se correlacionaron con los obtenidos aplicando el método basado en el VI, aunque los primeros tendieron a ser más altos que los segundos en el rango de valores más bajos. El análisis de errores de interpolación mostró que cuando la frecuencia de paso elevado del satélite es superior a una semana y el déficit hídrico es leve o inexistente, la interpolación de los coeficientes de cultivo (por ejemplo, de los derivados de un balance energético) arroja errores de estimaciones de ETc superiores a los resultantes del enfoque basado en VI. En condiciones de déficit de agua, el enfoque basado en VI sobreestima sistemáticamente la evapotranspiración. ; In a scenario of growing competition for water resources between irrigation and other sectors, such as urban or industrial, irrigation has the challenge of designing and implementing strategies to increase the use of water, guaranteeing equity and avoiding the loss of quality or the depletion of its non-renewable sources. This implies changes in consciousness and institutional necessary for users to become more active and assume shared responsibilities for water management in their region. Irrigation management transfer (IMT) involves delegating responsibilities or transferring management authority for some or all functions of diversion and / or distribution of water, maintenance and rehabilitation of infrastructure, management of disputes related to water, allocation water rights or planning crop schedules to water users associations (WUA) or other types of non-governmental organizations. The experiences of IMT in different parts of the world have been very varied, as have the approaches adopted in its implementation and the impacts of the reforms on the performance of irrigation schemes. To performance assessment of an irrigation scheme, it is advisable to use simple, effective and universally applicable indicators. Its estimation with tools related to information and communication technologies on large irrigated areas have become relevant and especially on those indicators related to the water balance that require a precise estimation. These are directly related to an improvement in the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET), the main source of water consumption in an irrigation scheme. The Río Dulce irrigation scheme (SRRD, acronym in Spanish) is located in the northwestern region of Argentine, in the province of Santiago del Estero. Despite not having a government program linked to the IMT, from 2006 to 2011 agreements were formalized for the transfer of operation and maintenance (O&M) of the secondary canals up to the level of farm block (last level of the collective system irrigation) with seven WUAs. In the SRRD, performance assessment has been on several occasions, but in no case have the results been related to the type of management, possibly because irrigation management had not been transferred to farmers or did not have a long enough period to be evaluated. This thesis presents a comparative performance assessment of two SRRD subsystems, one where O&M has been transferred to the WUAs with another where management remains under the responsibility of the government. To performance assessment, conventional and validated indicators were used. Using technical evaluations and social inquiry, the attitude of users in relation to their production systems, perception of the water supply service, and their participation and involvement in the WUAs were contrasted. In the subsystem where management was transferred to users, management allowed flexible delivery schedules that facilitated a diversified cropping pattern, greater irrigation intensity, and resulted in greater use of water, although it did not imply an increase in the relative irrigation supply, which denoted overall under-irrigation. Farmers in the transferred subsystem were more aware of irrigation service problems than farmers in the nontransferred subsystem. The perception of problems in the non-transferred subsystem increased with the level of professionalism and technical knowledge of the farmer. The transmission of requests and complaints from farmers to managements was more transparent in the subsystem transferred than in the non-transferred one. With the need for precise and disaggregated information, key to the estimation of performance indicators of an irrigation scheme, a comparative evaluation of the two main remote sensing approaches for the estimation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc), an important component of the water consumption from agriculture, was carried out. The approaches evaluated were the surface energy balance and the approach based on FAO56, which uses the ability of multispectral vegetation indices (VI) to trace the crop's growth and estimate the crop coefficient. The first analysis used field-specific, VI-derived basal crop coefficients obtained for 1743 fields using series of 9 to 29 satellite images along the 2014-15 irrigation campaign. The second analysis used 30 fields (grown with cotton and maize) where the actual irrigation schedules in the 2014-15 irrigation campaign were known. A root zone soil water balance was computed in these fields using the FAO56 dual approach with field-specific, VI-derived basal crop coefficients. The ETc obtained from the water balance was compared with the ETc estimated using a single crop coefficient approach that uses field-specific VI and takes into account soil evaporation (herein called synthetic approach), and with the ETc obtained with the METRIC surface energy balance model as facilitated by the EEFlux application. The third analysis was a simulation analysis of errors in the estimation of the ETc due to the interpolation to daily values of single crop coefficients and basal crop coefficients determined at hypothetical satellite overpass intervals of longer than one day. The VIderived basal crop coefficient curves obtained for the 1743 fields of the first analysis were below the locally adopted standard (not field-specific) basal crop coefficient. Crop evapotranspiration in the 8005 ha covered by this analysis was about 20 % higher when applying standard non-field specific curves than when applying VI-derived curves. This difference pointed to the importance of using field-specific estimations of ETc. In the analysis carried out on the 30 selected fields, the ETc estimated using the VI-based approach agreed well with the ETc obtained from the water balance except under water deficit conditions. The crop coefficients obtained for these fields using the METRIC model correlated with those obtained by applying the VI-based method, although the former tended to be higher than the latter in the lower value range. The analysis of interpolation errors showed that when satellite overpass frequency is greater than one week and water deficit is mild or inexistent, the interpolation of crop coefficients (for instance, of those derived from an energy balance) gives errors of ETc estimations that are greater than those resulting from the VI-based approach. Under water deficit conditions, the VI-based approach systematically overestimates evapotranspiration.
In Italy, Protection System for Asylum Seekers and Refugees (SPRAR) manages the second reception of forced migrants. This organization was founded by the Bossi-Fini law n. 189/2002 and is composed by the network of local governments, which uses the available resources of National Fund for Asylum Policies and Services provided by Government finance law and managed by the Ministry of Interior. Its principal goal is to realize integrated reception projects for refugees, asylum seekers, subsidiary and humanitarian protection holders in order to ensure their socio-economic inclusion within local contexts in cooperation with voluntary and third sector organizations. On 10th July 2014, local governments were signed an agreement between national and regional executive to create a national reception system to face the growing number of people who have arrived on the Italian coasts. The main goal of this system is to overcome only a material reception (food and lodging), in order to offer a "widespread reception" within urban areas. The strategy is to create an individual project and an accompaniment to ensure the integration of each person in the local community. The services provided consist in inclusion of migrants in the national health and scholastic system, orientation and access to other local services, professional training, job placement, legal assistance and social and housing integration . Indeed, it is crucial to emphasize that the Italian reception system is characterized by extreme fragmentation. Only SPRAR provides these services with the goal of enabling social and economic inclusion of hosted people in local context, which is why we talk about second reception centres. In Italy, there are, however, many different types of first and extraordinary reception centres for migrants . They are managed by the prefectures and differ in terms of goals, structural characteristics, services and receptive capacity. Only 18.7% of migrants are hosted in the SPRAR structures, while the remainder incurs the possibility of carrying out the entire procedure of the asylum application in the centres of first and extraordinary reception (IDOS, 2017). In recent years, the Italian reception structures have undergone a reorganization and redenomination phase, in which the SPRAR should have become a reference standard. In fact, this system has positively distinguished itself for its objectives, the structuring of his interventions and many best practices. This did not prevent bad reception occurrences even within SPRAR structures, as well as a large number of violent and verbal conflicts, some of which carried out by Italian citizens to the detriment of asylum seekers and owners of a status of international protection. These episodes, exacerbated by a political and media discourse that represents migrants as a threat (Battistelli et al., 2016), are the consequence and symbol of the fragmentary and contradictory reception policies adopted at a European level, in the individual countries and at a local level (IDOS, 2016). Instability and political, economic and social uncertainty, rulers in this historical period, are manifested in an emergency approach that is characterized by insufficient planning and a lack of coordination between the reception agencies. This orientation, supported by many and incongruent legislative changes, deprives the system of a strong structure and facilitates the overturning of the same principles of "widespread reception" of migrants in local communities. Moreover, this facilitates the affirmation of nationalist, xenophobic and localist drifts, as well as reception situations in which human rights are violated and which do not provide real opportunities for inclusion in the territories in a safe and dignified manner. Therefore, the conceptual distinction of the terms danger, risk and threat, used as the interpretative line of this work, appears fundamental to understand why subjective responses, in terms of perception and actions, differ according to the situations, as well as to manage the effects that derive in a consistent manner (Battistelli e Galantino, 2018). In order to realize the analysis, I decided to use an ethnographic approach that is traced back to the constructivist philosophical paradigm, where the vision of facts is investigated locally. Ethnographers, indeed, study subjects, artefacts and actions in their interactions, from an interpretative-dialectical point of view, without the claim of absolute objectivity of the results (Piccardo and Benozzo, 1996). Then, I have chosen to use focused narrative interviews because they turn to individuals, they aim for their "understanding", and this is part of the renewed interest in the subject's centrality and in the "deliberately intentional" social action (Weber, 1922). It is also an approach that allows investigating deeply the phenomena. It is very interactive, flexible and able to empathize in the perspective of the subject being studied. This makes it easier to interview marginal subjects neglected by "official knowledge" and to rediscover the social function of research, which is "giving voice to those who do not have it" (Crespi, 1985, pp. 351) In addition, observation and fieldwork are supported by a strong theoretical basis that offers its help to the researcher for the understanding of the social world, providing an order that supports they in their critical analysis of the facts. So, empirical work and theory support each other (Silverman, 2002). Then, narrative approach is highly adaptable to the study of organizations and to analyse the collected data. In fact, this approach is characterized for attention given to concrete situations and not to general theorizations (Czarniawska, 2000). Hence, the empirical research carried out in 2016-2018 can be summarized in the following phases: 1- Analysis of secondary data and documents produced by European and national statistical institutes, private associations, protection bodies and by SPRAR itself. 2- Participant observation in: - a political protest demonstration against the opening of a SPRAR centre in XIII Town Hall, on the north-western suburb of Rome; - nine meetings of social operators working in SPRAR network of Rome and in the national CARA and CAS reception centres; - a SPRAR centre (20 reception places increased to 40 in the south-eastern suburbs of Rome, VII Town Hall). One year of observation and shadowing of operators: 16th January 2017 – 22th January 2018; - a SPRAR apartment (14 reception places for families in the residential area of Monte Sacro neighbourhood, Town Hall III). Five days of observation and shadowing of operators in January 2018; - a seminar of reflection organized by SPRAR and ANCI on the reception system in Lazio, focused on the role of the Regions and Municipalities. 3- Forty-one narrative focused interviews: - Twenty-four SPRAR operators working in SPRAR centres of Rome; - Seventeen asylum seekers and refugees from SPRAR centre observed in Town Hall VII of Rome. The intent behind this ethnographic research started in a restructuring phase aimed to make the SPRAR a reference standard of reception for all asylum seekers who came to our country. But it was characterized, as still today, by speculative situations, the high presence on the territory of large collective reception centres and managing bodies without the necessary experience (Olivieri, 2011; Lunaria 2016). Therefore, the analysis of the risk management and the operators perception of the SPRAR of Rome has the objective to unveil and analyse the contradictions and weaknesses that may arise within this model due to a reckless management that produces specific factors of risk. The hypothesis underlying the case study is that, although the SPRAR has been recognized as an ordinary model, it can also be reproduced in a distorted manner, not respecting the reference guidelines. The alteration between SPRAR in books, the theoretical expression of a principle, and SPRAR in action, its implementation (Pound, 1910), is caused by specific factors that can cause significant effects from several points of view. To bring to light these aspects, closely related to the risk management and the perception that its operators have, I achieve a classification of the risks that I applied to three different types of SPRAR structures (large, medium and single apartment). Then, I identified a series of outcomes involving the people hosted, the operators, the local community and the SPRAR organization itself. The decision to draw the case study at the SPRAR of the city of Rome is driven by the complexity that distinguishes this territory on a social, cultural and political level. In fact, I believe it can bring out the contradictions of the model as new forms of confinement compared to territories with reduced complexity. However, allowing a glimpse of a reception of asylum seekers and holders of a protection status also possible within urban and metropolitan areas. The empirical survey shows that an increase in the distortion compared to the assumptions of an integrated and widespread reception in the territories corresponds to a greater possibility that specific risk factors are produced. Which in their turn, crystallizing into unhealthy forms, can involve the people hosted, the operators, the local community and the SPRAR organization itself. The case study and the application of the risk classification, which I achieved based on the evidence revealed from the field, reveal how the identified risk areas (socio-spatial context, production of the service, recipients) and the corresponding categories, do not produce in itself a negative result. However, this can occur if a short-sighted management acts on these aspects and does not align with the proposed guidelines. Therefore, this classification appears to be a useful tool to identify problems and to develop preventive measures, aimed to improve the management of SPRAR centres in metropolitan cities such as Rome (and other contexts), by intervening on the identified risk categories and reducing the factors that eventually emerge. The analysis, focused on three different types of SPRAR structure (large, medium, single apartment) of the Capital, shows how this alteration occurs in a disruptive way in the large collective centres, the most represented in Rome. Meanwhile, greater adherence to the model is shown, with a modality proportional to the size, in the medium-sized structure and in the apartment. The distortion detected in the large SPRAR collective centres of Rome and partly also in the medium-sized centre, reflects the ambivalence of the general reception system. It promotes on the one hand the principles of a good reception that respects human rights and the autonomy of people and by another implements foreclosure practices and new forms of borders (Vacchiano, 2011; Van Haken, 2008). The field research shows that this happens on different levels due to specific material factors (location and capacity of the centres, management of internal spaces, activation of the services provided, etc.) and through the daily practices of the operators who, in a more or less assenting, controlling and disciplining the people hosted, shape their conduct. Therefore, in the daily life of the structures in which the situations described are involved, the principles of freedom, inclusion and autonomy supported by the rhetoric of reception system are governed by a neoliberal logic of citizenship that suggests the criteria to distinguish, in the same integration paths, who is more worthy than other beneficiaries (Van Haken, 2008). Although the case study highlights strong contradictions and weaknesses that come to life in the implementation of the SPRAR model, it also shows the realization of a good reception. That which, despite being included in an extremely complex context such as Rome, attempts to oppose the "logic of large numbers and profits" of large cooperatives and which implements functional inclusion paths to achieve the objectives. Alignment and consistency with the guidelines and the SPRAR operating manual, in fact, allow the construction of a real project of individualized socio-economic integration for the person hosted. Only by acting in a widespread manner on the territory, in apartments or small centres, the genesis of new forms of borders beyond those already present is avoided. In fact, through this management most of the risks identified are eliminated or at least reduced, precisely because the "trajectory of opportunities" of risk (Reason, 1997) towards unfavourable outcomes generally develops within large collective centres. References Battistelli Fabrizio, Farruggia Francesca, Galantino Maria Grazia and Ricotta Giuseppe. 2016. "Affrontarsi o Confrontarsi? Il "Rischio" Immigrati sulla Stampa Italiana e nella Periferia di Tor Sapienza a Roma". Sicurezza e Scienze Sociali 1:86-112. Battistelli Fabrizio e Galantino Maria Grazia. 2018. "Dangers, Risks and Threats: An Alternative Conceptualization to the Catch-All Concept of Risk". Current Sociology 1-15. Czarniawska Barbara. 2000. Narrare l'organizzazione. La costruzione dell'identità istituzionale. Tr.it. Torino: Edizioni di Comunità. Crespi Franco. 1985. Le vie della sociologia. Bologna: Il Mulino. IDOS in partnership with Confronti. 2017. Dossier Statistico Immigrazione 2017. Roma: Inprinting srl. IDOS. 2016. "INTRA MOENIA. Il Sistema di Accoglienza per Rifugiati e Richiedenti Asilo in Italia nei Rapporti di Monitoraggio Indipendenti". Affari Sociali Internazionali IV (1-4). Lunaria. 2016. Il mondo di dentro. Il sistema di protezione per richiedenti asilo e rifugiati a Roma. (https://www.lunaria.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Il_mondo_di_dentro.pdf). Olivieri Maria Silvia. 2011. "L'accoglienza frantumata sotto il peso dell'«emergenza»", pp. 35-44 in Lunaria. 2011. Cronache di ordinario razzismo. Secondo libro bianco sul razzismo in Italia. Roma: Edizioni dell'Asino. Piccardo Claudia and Benozzo Angelo. 1996. Etnografia organizzativa. Una proposta di metodo per l'analisi delle organizzazioni come culture. Milano: Raffaello Cortina Editore. Reason James. 1997. Managing the Risks of Organisational Accidents. London: Ashgate Publishing Company. Vacchiano Francesco. 2011. "Discipline della Scarsità e del Sospetto: Rifugiati e Accoglienza nel Regime di Frontiera". Lares LXXVII (1): 181-198. Van Aken Mauro. 2008. Rifugio Milano. Vie di fuga e vita quotidiana dei richiedenti asilo. Roma: Carta. Weber Max. 1922. Economia e Società. Tr.it. Milano: Edizioni di Comunità.
L"olivicultura de la comarca del Priorat es basa en la varietat "Arbequina" i està inclosa dins la DOP "Siurana" (Tarragona) on ocupa unes 2.900 ha que produeixen 4.700 t d"olives i 900 t d"oli, que ha de competir amb unes 100.000 t d"oli d"aquesta varietat produïdes a tot el mon, més de la meitat fora de Catalunya i amb tecnologies de producció modernes que permeten reduir costos i millorar la rendibilitat. Per aquest motiu els productors de la zona van fundar l"Associació d"Oleïcultors del Priorat (AOP) amb la finalitat de crear una estructura comercial que permetés accedir a mercats d"alt preu, semblants als que utilitzen els vins de qualitat de la comarca. La AOP signà el 2002 un conveni amb l"IRTA i el DAAM per a desenvolupar un programa científico-tècnic que permetés la caracterització i tipificació dels olis de la comarca, establint criteris objectius de selecció d"aquells olis de qualitat superior i diferenciable de la resta d"olis de "Arbequina" de Catalunya, per a facilitar la seva comercialització. Aquesta tesis doctoral inclou tots els aspectes científics sobre els que està fonamentada l"aplicació comercial d"aquest programa. Els objectius fixats són: (1) caracteritzar els olis produïts a la comarca, a nivell fisicoquímic i sensorial; (2) constatar si aquests olis són objectivament diferents dels d"altres zones, produïts amb la mateixa varietat "Arbequina"; (3) identificar en què consisteix la seva tipicitat, relacionant-la amb factors propis del clima i sòls de la comarca; i (4) caracteritzar l"olivicultura i elaiotècnia de la comarca. Els treballs s"han desenvolupat durant sis campanyes successives (2002-03 a 2008-09) i es basen en l"anàlisi sistemàtica de pràcticament el 100% dels olis produïts a la comarca durant aquests anys (6.308.124 litres), la descripció de l"olivicultura de la zona (mitjançant enquesta) i dels processos d"extracció (descripció de les instal·lacions i anotació de les condicions de procés en campanya) i l"estudi de la relació existent entre l"oli i els factors de producció, edàfics i climàtics. Als olis s"han analitzat les característiques sensorials, paràmetres fisicoquímics de qualitat, àcids grassos, esterols, polifenols totals, índex d"amargor, estabilitat i, en alguns casos, ceres i compostos volàtils. La metodologia utilitzada és similar a la dels nombrosos treballs de tipificació i caracterització d"olis d"oliva verge, normalment associats a DOP espanyoles i d"Itàlia, la qual fiabilitat està relacionada amb la representativitat de les mostres d"oli analitzades i que apliquen tècniques estadístiques univariants i multivariants diverses. Els resultats demostren que fins un 54% dels olis de la zona Priorat, elaborats majoritàriament amb "Arbequina", es poden diferenciar objectivament dels d"altres zones productores del mon que utilitzen la mateixa varietat, inclús de les veïnes Garrigues i Siurana-Camp. Aquestes diferències ho són tant a nivell sensorial (principalment els atributs picant, aromes secundàries, fruitat, astringència i dols), como a nivell d"àcids grassos (principalment palmitoleic, oleic, palmític i esteàric). Existeix una variabilitat intrazonal (inferior al 20% en tots els paràmetres, excepte els esterols) que sembla aleatòria en el cas d"atributs sensorials i, en el cas de la composició química, està relacionada amb factors geogràfics, de tècniques de cultiu i de clima de cada municipi. Les diferències respecte d"altres zones veïnes on es cultiva la mateixa varietat estan relacionades amb l"orografia i geologia particular de la comarca (més del 50% de plantacions estan a més de 400 m d"altitud i sobre sòls del Paleozoic de baixa fertilitat i amb zones de transició cap a sòls sedimentaris del quaternari cap al Camp de Tarragona i del terciari cap a Les Garrigues) i amb el clima particular i bastant homogeni a tota la zona (règim termo-pluviomètric de tipus "mediterrani prelitoral sud", amb transició cap a "mediterrani continental sec" a Les Garrigues i "mediterrani litoral sud" al Camp de Tarragona). S"ha definit un model matemàtic per a predir si una partida d"olives té possibilitats de produir olis de qualitat suficient per a la seva diferenciació, així com funcions discriminants de Fischer per a determinar si el perfil sensorial o la composició en àcids grassos d"un oli són típics de la comarca del Priorat i, per tant, diferenciables de les zones veïnes. Actualment, els resultats d"aquests treballs serveixen de base per a establir les estratègies comercials de venda dels olis del Priorat. Els moliners i envasadores trien aquells olis considerats com típics de la zona per a ser envasats (s"ha passat del 20% al inici del programa fins al 65% actual), dedicant la resta de la producció a l"autoconsum i al mercat a doll ; El olivar de la comarca del Priorat se basa en el cultivo de la variedad "Arbequina" y está incluido en la DOP "Siurana" (Tarragona), ocupando unas 2.900 ha que producen 4.700 t de aceitunas y 900 t de aceite, que debe competir con unas 100.000 t de aceite de esta variedad producidas en todo el mundo, más de la mitad fuera de Cataluña y con tecnologías de producción modernas que permiten reducir los costes y mejorar la rentabilidad. Por este motivo, los productores de la zona fundaron la Asociación de Oleicultores del Priorat (AOP) con el fin de crear una estructura comercial que permitiera acceder a mercados de alto precio, parecidos a los que utilizan los vinos de calidad de la comarca. La AOP firmó, en 2002, un convenio con el IRTA y el DAAM para desarrollar un programa científico-técnico que permitiera la caracterización y tipificación de los aceites de la comarca, estableciendo criterios objetivos de selección de aquellos aceites de calidad superior y diferenciable del resto de aceites de "Arbequina" de Cataluña, para facilitar su comercialización. La presente tesis doctoral incluye todos los aspectos científicos sobre los que se fundamenta la aplicación comercial de este programa. Los objetivos que se plantean son: (1) caracterizar los aceites producidos en la comarca, a nivel físico-químico y sensorial; (2) constatar si estos aceites son objetivamente diferentes de los de otras zonas producidos con la misma variedad "Arbequina"; (3) identificar en qué consiste su tipicidad, relacionándola con factores propios del clima y suelos de la comarca; y (4) caracterizar la olivicultura y elaiotecnia de la comarca. Los trabajos se han desarrollado durante seis campañas (2002-03 a 2008-09) y se basan en el análisis sistemático de prácticamente el 100% de los aceites producidos en la comarca durante esos años (6.308.124 litros), la descripción de la olivicultura de la zona (mediante encuesta) y de los procesos extractivos (descripción de las instalaciones y anotación de las condiciones de proceso en campaña) y el estudio de la relación existente entre el aceite y los factores tanto de producción como edáficos y climáticos. En los aceites se han analizado las características sensoriales, parámetros físico-químicos de calidad, ácidos grasos, esteroles, polifenoles totales, índice de amargor, estabilidad y, en algunos casos, ceras y compuestos volátiles. La metodología utilizada se basa en los numerosos trabajos de tipificación y caracterización de aceites de oliva virgen, normalmente asociados a DOP españolas e italianas, cuya fiabilidad está relacionada con la representatividad de las muestras de aceite analizadas y que aplican técnicas estadísticas univariantes y multivariantes diversas. Los resultados demuestran que hasta un 54% de los aceites de la zona Priorat, elaborados mayoritariamente con "Arbequina", pueden diferenciarse objetivamente de los de otras zonas productoras del mundo que utilizan la misma variedad, incluso de las vecinas Garrigues y Siurana-Camp. Dichas diferencias lo son tanto a nivel sensorial (principalmente los atributos picante, aromas secundarios, frutado, astringencia y dulzor), como a nivel de ácidos grasos (principalmente palmitoleico, oleico, palmítico y esteárico). Existe una variabilidad intrazonal (inferior al 20% en todos los parámetros, excepto los esteroles) que parece aleatoria en el caso de atributos sensoriales y que, en el caso de la composición química, está relacionada con factores geográficos, de técnicas de cultivo y de clima de cada municipio. Las diferencias respecto de otras zonas vecinas, donde se cultiva la misma variedad, están relacionadas con la orografía y geología particular de la comarca (más del 50% de plantaciones están a más de 400 m de altitud y sobre suelos del Paleozoico de baja fertilidad y con zonas de transición hacia suelos sedimentarios del cuaternario hacia el Camp de Tarragona y del terciario hacia Les Garrigues) y con el clima particular y bastante homogéneo en toda la zona (régimen termopluviométrico de tipo "mediterráneo prelitoral sur", con transición hacia el "mediterráneo continental seco" de Les Garrigues y el "mediterráneo litoral sur" del Camp de Tarragona). Se ha definido un modelo matemático para predecir si una partida de aceitunas tiene posibilidades de producir aceites de calidad suficiente para su diferenciación, así como funciones discriminantes de Fischer para determinar si el perfil sensorial o la composición en ácidos grasos de un aceite son típicos de la comarca del Priorat y, por tanto, diferenciables de las zonas vecinas. Actualmente, estos resultados sirven de base para establecer las estrategias comerciales de venta de los aceites del Priorat. Los almazareros y envasadores escogen aquellos aceites considerados como típicos de la zona para su envasado (se ha pasado desde un 20% al inicio del programa hasta el 65% actual), dedicando el resto de la producción al autoconsumo y al mercado de graneles. ; Olive production in the Priorat area raws on "Arbequina" cultivar and is included into PDO "Siurana" (Tarragona), with 2.900 ha and yielding 4.700 t fruits in average, equivalent to 900 t of virgin oil. This oil competes with 100.000 t of oil from the same cultivar produced worldwide (more than a half out of Catalonia and using new technologies to reduce costs and enhance profitability). This was the reason to promote the Priorat"s Producer Association (PPA) in order to build a commercial structure to gain high value markets, similar to those used by high quality wines of this area. PPA proposed in 2002 an agreement with IRTA and the Agricultural Services from the Catalan Government with the aim to develop a scientific and technical program to characterize and differentiate virgin oils from Priorat and setting objective criteria to select high quality oils different from others "Arbequina". This ought to improve current commercialization. This thesis includes all scientific aspects supporting the commercial application of the program. Research goals were: (1) to characterize oils from Priorat using physic, chemical and sensorial parameters; (2) to assess if these oils can be differentiated from others produced with the same cultivar "Arbequina" in other regions; (3) to test their "typicality", related to Priorats" climate and soil characteristics; and (4) to characterize olive production and mill technology in Priorat. The study was carried out during a six years period (2002-03 to 2008-09 harvests) with systematic analysis of almost 100% virgin oil produced in the area (6.308.124 liters). Olive crop production was studied using a questioner, while mill technology was assessed by registering processing conditions along harvest every year. The relationship between oil quality and climate, soils and cultural practices was studied. Chemical parameters analyzed were: sensory profile, physic and chemical quality parameters, fatty acids, sterols, total polyphenols, bitterness index, stability and, sometimes, waxes and volatiles. Methodology was similar to that applied in many scientific studies on virgin oil characterization in wide areas, usually linked to PDO in Spain and Italy. Results reliability depends on oil sampling representativeness. Both univariate and multivariate statistics were used. Results show that up to 54% of Priorat virgin oils made with "Arbequina" can be classified to be typical and different from other producing regions, even the neighboring areas of Garrigues and Siurana-Camp. Such differences are both sensorial (mainly pungency, secondary aromas, fruity, astringency and sweet) and chemical (fatty acids palmitoleic, oleic, pamitic, and stearic). Variability between Priorat areas, is lower than 20% (except for sterols) and seems to be random for sensory profile while is related to geography, cultural practices and climate, for chemical composition. Differences to other regions with the same cultivar are related to the Priorat"s geography and geology (more than 50% orchards are placed higher than 400 m and over soils from Paleozoic with low fertility with transitions to quaternary sedimentary soils towards Camp of Tarragona and transitions to tertiary sedimentary soils towards Garrigues) and climate (Priorat"s climate belongs to "south pre-littoral Mediterranean" with transitions to "dry continental Mediterranean" towards Garrigues and transitions to "south littoral Mediterranean" towards Camp of Tarragona). A mathematic model was fitted which makes possible to decide if an olive lot is able to produce virgin oil of enough quality to be classified as typical of Priorat. Fischers" discriminate functions were fitted that make possible to decide if a virgin oil sample has a fatty acid composition or a sensory profile characteristics from Priorat and different to other regions. Currently, these results are used to establish commercial strategies to sell Priorat virgin oils. The oil producers from this area select those more characteristics oils to be retailed (this increased from 20% at the beginning of the program to currently 65%) while the standard oils are used to self consumption or for bulk market.
For the purposes of this project, the East African countries included in the study were Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. The focus for this project was Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) as for-profit or nonprofit organizations with less than 50 employees and not exceeding USD 1,000,000 in annual revenues/turnover. The main output of this project was a proposed program of interventions to drive transformational change. To succeed in this ambitious endeavor, the project articulated clear objectives and designed a blueprint for implementation including levels of resourcing, budget and monitoring metrics. Over the course of the project the team conducted brief surveys with over 90 entrepreneurs, over 50 percent of who had 3-10 years of experience in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and primarily worked at companies with 5 employees or less.
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An interesting issue with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is their status as a direct liability of the central bank. This distinction rarely gets the attention of the broader public, but it's an important distinction because it could lead to a complete destabilization of the financial system as we know it. For example, a CBDC would likely worsen bank runs, lead people to leave the banking system, and increase the cost of loans. Broadly speaking, this direct liability feature is one of the main reasons that a CBDC represents a radical departure from the existing financial system. What Is a Liability? For those that might not be familiar, the term "liability" is used in finance to describe something that person A owes to person B. In contrast, an "asset" is something that person A owns outright. From here, we can see that something—such as a loan or a deposit—can simultaneously be a liability for one person and an asset for another person. The difference between what is owned (assets) and what is owed (liabilities) is referred to as "equity." Generally, equity is the residual value that belongs to the owners of the bank. If we step back to accounting 101, we can model the relationship between assets, liabilities, and equities in a simplified balance sheet for a bank (see Figure 1). There might be different items in each category, but, ultimately, assets should equal liabilities plus equities. This relationship is often referred to as "the accounting equation."
Whose Liability Is It? When people spend money digitally today with a debit card, the money in the corresponding checking account is a liability of the bank (e.g., Bank of America or Capital One). Similarly, when people spend money digitally today with a prepaid card, the balance is a liability of the private company that issued the card (e.g., Visa or Mastercard). In either case, the financial institution owes the customer the funds that are deposited in the account. When a customer transfers that money to make a payment, the financial institution that has the liability is responsible for transferring the money. In the case of a CBDC, however, the digital money would be a liability of the central bank itself. That is, it would be the government that has the direct responsibility to hold, transfer, or otherwise remit those funds to the ostensible owner. This feature creates a direct link between citizens and the central bank. Why Does a CBDC's Liability Status Matter? As mentioned in the initial accounting primer, something can be a liability to one person and an asset to another. However, something cannot be a liability owned by two separate parties (Note: the word "separate" is used here to exclude agreements like joint partnerships). In the context of a CBDC, this distinction means that a CBDC cannot be a liability on both the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and a bank's balance sheet. That condition matters because the basic business model for banks has long involved a strategy of using deposits (i.e., their liabilities) to fund loans (i.e., their assets). If the number of deposits is cut down as people put their money in CBDC wallets instead of bank accounts, then the number of loans will be cut down, too (see Figure 2). As the supply of private loans decreases (Q1 to Q2), the price of those loans will start to increase (P1 to P2). In other words, this issue is about more than just bank profits. Yes, some banks would likely go out of business or merge with larger banks as the price of loans increases and cuts into profit lines, but this disruption would also make loans more expensive for everyone.
Why Would People Choose a CBDC Over a Bank Account? There are many civil liberty concerns that might make people hesitant to adopt a CBDC. However, setting those concerns aside, there are reasons people may still be swayed to use a CBDC. Consider two situations that people may face in financial markets: a time of panic during a bank run and a time of peaceful planning during a period of financial stability. Bank runs are instances when customers lose faith in their bank for one reason or another (often due to bad news about the bank's finances) and, as the name suggests, run to the bank to withdraw all their money. In the past, that primarily meant people ran to get their money out in cash. Yet, as far as a run for cash is considered, the time waiting in line, the amount of cash available in the vault, the difficulty in carrying cash, and the security risk of storing cash all act as frictions that slow down runs. In contrast, as explained by the Federal Reserve itself, "The ability to quickly convert other forms of money—including deposits at commercial banks—into CBDC could make runs on financial firms more likely or more severe." In other words, rather than run to the bank to get physical cash, a person could instead choose to transfer their balances into a CBDC without leaving their home. Not only that, but the money might be kept as a CBDC for prolonged periods because it would essentially be digital money that is "100 percent insured" and, unlike cash, people would not need to worry about storing, securing, or carrying a large sack of money. While running for cash was more common in the past, technological advances have since led to digital runs where people instead wired or otherwise transferred their money directly to another bank instead of withdrawing cash (see Panel A in Figure 3). To be clear, the speed of these digital runs does pose a challenge. Yet, there is a silver lining with this development: this type of run is largely limited to the initial institution in question and does not affect the larger supply of deposits. Rather than leave the system, the money transferred flows into other institutions and stays within the financial system. The problem posed by a CBDC in this scenario is that people would instead transfer their money out of the financial system and into their digital wallets and purses—the digital equivalent of placing one's money under a mattress (see Panel B in Figure 3).
It is also likely that incentives could be used—even without a crisis or failure to spark a bank run—to encourage people to leave the existing financial system. For example, some CBDC proponents have called for CBDCs to offer things like "high interest compared with ordinary bank accounts and full government backing with no need for deposit insurance." For many people, the allure of above-market interest rates would likely make transferring to a CBDC a quick decision. In fact, proponents have specifically recognized that these offerings would crowd out alternatives in the private sector. When weighing the costs and benefits, one proponent went so far as to say that disrupting the banking system is the number one advantage of creating a CBDC even though doing so would lead to "profound systemic changes that threaten entire lines of business within banks and credit card companies." Theory is not the only source for concern when considering how government incentives might lead people to leave the banking system. For those that might not recall, the U.S. Postal Savings System operated from 1911 to 1966 on the premise of offering "safe and convenient places for the deposit of savings at a comparatively low rate of interest." That low rate of interest, however, was set in stone by bureaucrats and later became comparatively high when market rates fell during the Great Depression—a period that coincided with a significant number of bank failures. So in addition to people leaving banks in pursuit of a higher return, studies have shown that other people moved their money to the Postal Savings System directly in response to the announcement of local bank suspensions. From 1929 to 1933, the amount of money deposited in the Postal Savings System had increased nearly eightfold from $154 million to $1.2 billion. So both in times of panic and times of peace, a CBDC could destabilize the financial system. Can't You Just Store CBDC at the Bank? With a general understanding of both liabilities and bank runs in hand, let's dive deeper and explore how a CBDC might be used by the public. A common question that comes up when discussing CBDC risks is: Why can't people just keep their CBDC at the bank? There are really three options for a consumer looking to store their CBDC—partially depending on what CBDC model is ultimately used. With a retail CBDC provided directly by the central bank, people would store their CBDC in accounts directly managed by the Federal Reserve. That means every dollar held as a CBDC is a dollar that has either been taken out of the banking system or converted from cash. Any dollar stored as a CBDC here would be off-limits to banks. This arrangement sort of turns the Federal Reserve into a payments processor like PayPal or Cash App. However, rather than solely handling money like those services do today, the Federal Reserve would also be providing money directly to the public—another deviation from the current system. With an intermediated CBDC supported by private intermediaries, people would store their CBDC in a digital wallet that banks (or other private institutions) maintain on behalf of the Federal Reserve. Although the bank would incur costs for things like processing payments, cybersecurity, and regulatory compliance, putting a CBDC into this wallet does not mean that the CBDC becomes the bank's liability. Rather, storing a CBDC in this wallet is more akin to storing valuables in a safety deposit box. Banks will maintain the account, but they can't touch what is inside or have ownership of it—as ultimately, those accounts are being maintained on behalf of the Federal Reserve. With either of those two CBDC designs, people could instead exchange their CBDC for bank deposits—though, it's a bit of a roundabout process. Behind the scenes, the bank would send the customer's CBDC to the Federal Reserve in exchange for a credit that would then be used to balance a newly created deposit of equal value. This method would allow banks to use deposit accounts to fund loans and consumers to continue using the financial system like they already do, but the owner of the account would no longer be using a CBDC. A payment from that account would be a regular debit transaction like what already happens—without a CBDC—over 240 million times a day in the United States. This last option is akin to what happens with cash, or paper money, that is deposited at a bank. When someone deposits cash, they no longer get to use an anonymous, physical money. Instead, they spend money by initiating transfers to and from a deposit account. Exchanging a CBDC for a deposit account would resemble this process as people would no longer have access to the features of the CBDC. Hold On, Isn't Cash a Direct Liability of the Central Bank? At this point, some people might still be wondering how a CBDC poses a unique threat when cash is also a direct liability of the central bank and involves a similar exchange process when deposited at banks. It's a good question to consider. First, the existence of cash does facilitate disruptions to the financial system considering it gives consumers a final means of payments that they can run to. In fact, similar arguments could be made about physical gold during the gold standard era. Yet, a CBDC poses a unique threat because consumers would likely be able to pull out their money faster than ever before and store the funds easily without significant storage or security costs. It's for this reason that the Federal Reserve said a CBDC would make bank runs "more likely" and "more severe." The digital nature of a CBDC would increase the impact of a run and delay the return to normal relative to cash (see Figure 4).
The CBDC Tradeoff Many others have also recognized that the risk of destabilizing the financial system is a serious threat posed by CBDCs. George Selgin (Cato Institute), Andrea Maechler (Swiss National Bank), Greg Baer (Bank Policy Institute), Rob Morgan (American Bankers Association), and researchers at the European Central Bank, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and University of Michigan have all described similar concerns about CBDCs destabilizing the financial system. In fact, the Federal Reserve has acknowledged that the introduction of a CBDC, "could reduce the aggregate amount of deposits in the banking system, which could in turn increase bank funding expenses, and reduce credit availability or raise credit costs for households and businesses." Not ready to throw in the towel, some CBDC proponents have proposed making CBDCs intentionally bad to discourage and limit their use. For instance, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have proposed not paying interest on CBDCs, limiting the amount of CBDC a person can hold, or limiting the amount of CBDC a person can accumulate over time. In other words, there won't be interest payments, total CBDC holdings will be limited, and the amount that can be transferred over time will be limited. William Luther, director of AIER's Sound Money Project, has described this issue as the "CBDC Tradeoff." Consider two extremes. On the one hand, a CBDC could pay interest, offer subsidized payments, and even tax discounts. These offerings would lead people to leave the banking system, but it would mean that the CBDC gains enough users to maintain a stable network. On the other hand, a CBDC could pay no interest, have some low cap like $10,000, and restrict how many transactions people can make. In this case, people probably wouldn't leave their bank any time soon, but then the CBDC probably would not have enough users to be considered a worthwhile effort. In short, the tradeoff becomes a question between making something people will want at the expense of the larger financial system or making something no one will want at the expense of taxpayer resources. Faced with this tradeoff, the best choice is to not introduce a CBDC at all. Conclusion Let's quickly recap the ground that has been covered here. Introducing a CBDC risks destabilizing the banking system and worsening panics. The Federal Reserve tried to lessen that risk by "including" banks in the process by proposing an intermediated CBDC. Yet, with an intermediated CBDC, banks would have to cover regulatory and overhead costs to maintain CBDC accounts even though they would have no loan revenue from those funds since the CBDC is still a liability of the central bank. Moreover, shrinking the supply of deposits would likely lead to costlier credit. That means loans will be more expensive for everyone. Today's financial system is not perfect, but it usually works so well that people rarely stop to ask: "Whose liability is it anyway?" Yet, being a direct liability of the central bank is a defining feature of a CBDC. In practice, that trait means destabilizing the financial system is a defining feature of a CBDC. Consequently, the risk posed to financial markets is just another reason why Congress should prohibit the Federal Reserve and Treasury from issuing a CBDC.
Improvements in infrastructure in all parts of Sudan in recent years have had a strong impact on per capita growth, contributing 1.7 percentage points. Consistent with trends in other countries, the information and communication (ICT) revolution that swept Africa contributed the most to Sudan. Raising the infrastructure endowment of all parts of Sudan to that of the region's best performer, Mauritius, could boosts annual growth by about 3.5 percentage points. Sudan has invested heavily in infrastructure in recent years, with some notable achievements. Power generation capacity tripled in just a few years, rising from around 800 megawatts (MW) in 2005 to 2,687MW in 2007, with a shift toward hydropower. Nevertheless, service reliability remains an issue. In ICT, Sudan has made enormous strides in liberalizing the sector and as a result has attracted significant private capital. Mobile penetration soared from less than 1 percent in 2000 to 33 percent in 2009. Recent connectivity to an undersea fiber-optic cable has led to expansions in access, improvements in quality, and reduction in prices. Looking ahead, Sudan's most pressing infrastructure challenges lie in the water and transport sectors. Sudan's infrastructure development has so far had a national focus, and there is much that remains to be done to achieve greater regional integration. While internal road corridors are developed, connectivity with neighbors is largely absent. Sudan has a natural gateway to the sea through Port Sudan but the port's performance is severely hindered by long dwell times, high costs, and capacity constraints. Looking further ahead, Sudan has the potential to be a major hydropower exporter if additional capacity could be developed and transmission links with neighboring Nile Basin countries strengthened.
For countries as diverse as China and Mauritius, Special Economic Zones (SEZs) have been a powerful tool to attract foreign investment, promote export-oriented growth, and generate employment; for many others, the results have been less than encouraging. While the benefits and limitations of zones will no doubt continue to be debated, what is clear is that policymakers are increasingly attracted to them as an instrument of trade, investment, industrial, and spatial policy. Since the mid 1980s, the number of newly-established zones has grown rapidly in almost all regions, with dramatic growth i
This study is a product of the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD), a project designed to expand the world's knowledge of physical infrastructure in Africa. The AICD provides a baseline against which future improvements in infrastructure services can be measured, making it possible to monitor the results achieved from donor support. It also offers a solid empirical foundation for prioritizing investments and designing policy reforms in Africa's infrastructure sectors. The AICD is based on an unprecedented effort to collect detailed economic and technical data on African infrastructure. The project has produced a series of original reports on public expenditure, spending needs, and sector performance in each of the main infrastructure sectors, including energy, information and communication technologies, irrigation, transport, and water and sanitation. This report presents the key AICD findings for Mozambique, allowing the country's infrastructure situation to be benchmarked against that of its African peers. Given that Mozambique is poor but stable country, two sets of African benchmarks will be used to evaluate its situation: those for non fragile Low Income Countries (LICs) and those for Middle-Income Countries (MICs). Detailed comparisons will also be made with immediate regional neighbors in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).