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The military often intervenes in politics shortly after elections. This might be because election results reveal information about the ease with which a coup can succeed. Would-be coup perpetrators use this information to infer whether the incumbent can be removed from office without provoking popular unrest. We argue that the informational content of elections depends on the electoral rules that translate votes into outcomes. In electoral systems that incentivize strategic voting, election returns are less informative about the distribution of political support than in electoral systems that incentivize sincere voting. An extensive battery of statistical tests shows that vote-shares of election winners do not predict coup attempts in plurality systems, which encourage strategic voting, but they do predict coup attempts in non-plurality electoral systems, which do not encourage strategic voting. Thus, incumbents who have performed well in elections face a lower risk of coup attempts, but only in institutional environments where voting results are highly informative about the distribution of political support. We apply this logic to illuminate the decisions of the military to intervene into politics during the famous failed 1936 coup in Spain and the successful 1973 coup in Chile.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title -- Copyright -- CONTENTS -- Preface -- Notes on Contributors -- MIGRATION, SETTLEMENT AND DISPARITY -- 1. The West Indian Dimension of Western Europe -- 2. Caribbean Diaspora - The Inheritance of Slavery: Migration from the Commonwealth Caribbean -- 3. The Politics of 'Surplus Colonial Labour': Black Immigration to Britain and Governmental Responses, 1940-1962 -- 4. Patterns of Afro-Caribbean Migration and Settlement in Great Britain: 1945 - 1981 -- 5. Migration and Exclusion: Caribbean Echoes and British Realities -- 6. The Heritage of Slavery and Social Disadvantage -- SOCIAL AND CULTURAL THEMES -- 7. Prospects and Problems of Afro-Caribbeans in the British Education System -- 8. Processes of Ethnic Identification Among Surinamese Children in the Netherlands -- 9. Tradition and Continuity: The Force of Afro-Caribbean Music -- 10. The Relevance of West Indian Literature to Caribbean Heritage People Living in Britain -- 11. Black Youth and Sport in the United Kingdom -- Index

The article analyzes the geographic structure of foreign economic activity of Ukraine during 2005–2014. One of the main goals of foreign economic activity of the country is increasing of the economic potential and competitive advantage in global markets. Achievements of the goal largely depends on political, economic and social activity of regions. The analysis and forecast of trade relations with partner countries were held on the example of one of the regions of Ukraine. Sumy region has a strong industrial and natural resource potential which allows to realize effective foreign policy. The analysis of export-import operations in the region was carried out. The author analyzed the changes of foreign relations for the period from 2005 to 2014. Taking into account long-term export-import relations with partner countries the author applied the gravity model of J. Tinbergen and H. Linneman for forecasting foreign trade. The author lists the options for the further development of trade and economic relations of Sumy region with the country partner. The model makes it possible not only to make a prediction, but also include the policy of diversification of export-import relations that in result can improve a rapid adaptation of the foreign market of domestic producers. ; Було проаналізовано географічну структуру зовнішньоекономічної діяльності України протягом 2005–2014 років. Однією з основних цілей зовнішньоекономічної діяльності країни є нарощення економічного потенціалу і конкурентних переваг на світових ринках. Досягнення якої значною мірою залежить від політичної, економічної, соціальної діяльності регіонів. На прикладі одного з регіонів України проведено аналіз та прогноз зовнішньоторговельних відносин з країною-партнером. Сумська область має сильний виробничий і природно-ресурсний потенціал, що дозволяє реалізувати ефективну зовнішню політику. Був проведений аналіз експортно-імпортних операцій регіону. Проаналізовано зміни зовнішньоторговельних відносин за період з 2005 до 2014 років. Враховуючи довготривалі експортно-імпортні зв'язки з країною-партнером, було використано гравітаційну модель Я.Тінбергена та Х.Ліннемана для прогнозування зовнішньоторговельного обороту. Перелічені можливі варіанти розвитку подальших торгово-економічних відносин Сумської області з країною-партнером. Запропонована модель дає можливість не лише здійснити прогноз, а й проводити політику диверсифікації експортно-імпортних відносин, що зумовить швидку адаптацію на зовнішньому ринку вітчизняних товаровиробників.

This article assesses Temporary Protection (TP) in Europe in response to refugee crises. In 2001 the European Union (EU) adopted a Directive for TP to provide a regional response to a mass influx. It was considered that TP offered a double-win: addressing protection needs of asylum seekers, while enabling states to maintain control based on the understanding that asylum seekers would return home after a short period of stay. The Directive has been endorsed in UNHCR Guidelines on 'Temporary Protection or Stay Arrangements' (2014). Notwithstanding, the analysis in this article indicates that TP was a strategy that failed: it did not give states control nor promote solidarity between them. Failure explains its absence in the responses to the 2015–16 crisis. However, national forms of TP have re-emerged signalling efforts to re-assert control in the face of an enduring problem.

The revelations of PRISM and XKeyscore by ex-National Security Agency (NSA) analyst Edward Snowden resulted in arguably the largest intelligence leak so far in the 21st century. The leak revealed that the NSA was working with the British Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) on surveillance and data collection of individuals throughout Europe. Similarly, the NSA also colluded with the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) on similar data collection and surveillance activities. Whereas the British government reacted relatively benignly to the revelations despite cries of government abuse, the German government reacted negatively to the revelations, eventually opening a rift between Washington and Berlin. This paper examines the reactions to and the immediate political consequences of the Snowden revelations within the United Kingdom and Germany. By comparing and contrasting the two cases, one can determine whether the United States unnecessarily antagonized the Germans or if larger forces were at work.

The FUCI was the official organisation for the laity of Italian Catholic Action for the university sector and exists until the present day.1 As such, it was an important element of the lay Catholic world within Fascist Italy, as well as having a wider presence within Italian society. Thus, the study of the FUCI provides a means of studying the dynamics of Catholicism within Fascist Italy. At the same time, however, the FUCI has a wider significance for the study of Catholic politics and intellectual ideas within Italy, as a remarkably large proportion of the future Christian Democrats who would rule the destinies of the country after the Second World War received much of their intellectual training in the ranks of the federation.2 Additionally, in the 1925-33 period, the central ecclesiastical assistant of the organisation was Giovanni Battista Montini, the future pope Paul VI.

This paper reports the results of several comparisons of operationally defined structural characteristics of the US - Latin American and the Soviet - East European subsystems during the years 1950-1970. Relationships between (1) the distribution of power capabilities and the distribution of diplomatic importance and (2) the distribution of power capabilities and the pattern of international trade are examined in both subsystems. The authors argue that these comparisons are relevant to theoretical controversies regarding the relationships between the political and economic systems of pre-eminent powers and their interactions with weaker states in their 'spheres of influence'. They conclude that capability disparities have a similar impact on diplomatic importance in the two spheres, while the impact of these disparities on international trading patterns is more visible in the Soviet-East European sphere than in the US-Latin American subsystem. Finally, the authors briefly describe more detailed analyses that might lead to firmer conclusions regarding the nature of interstate relationships in the two subsystems.

The Colombian armed conflict is recognized worldwide for being one of the oldest on the planet and for having tried different initiatives to solve it; in relation to this, this empirical and transversal work provides new information on the intention of national businessmen to participate in economic actions aimed at legally legitimizing peace building. The results obtained through a sample of 482 micro, small and medium enterprises (Mipymes) in the country indicate that there is a greater propensity to support the victims than the ex-combatants in terms of generating employment for them and linking them to their enterprises, with a notoriously low willingness to contribute to a fund to finance activities to consolidate the post-agreement. The conclusion is that it is necessary to avoid polarization, and to make managers and businessmen more aware of the importance of their role in building lasting social and political stability. Bearing in mind that the culture of peace plays a very relevant role in the economic and democratic progress of Colombia in the globalized world. ; El conflicto armado colombiano es reconocido mundialmente por ser uno de los más antiguos del planeta y por haber intentado diferentes iniciativas para solucionarlo; en relación con ello este trabajo empírico y transversal aporta nueva información sobre la intención de los empresarios nacionales por participar en acciones económicas destinadas a legitimar jurídicamente la construcción de paz. Los resultados obtenidos mediante una muestra de 482 micro, pequeñas y medianas empresas (Mipymes) del país indican que existe mayor propensión por apoyar a las víctimas que a los excombatientes en cuanto a generarles empleo y vincularse a sus emprendimientos, siendo notoriamente baja la disposición de contribuir a conformar un fondo para financiar actividades para consolidar el post acuerdo. Se concluye que es necesario evitar la polarización, y sensibilizar más a los gerentes y empresarios sobre la importancia de su rol para construir una estabilidad social y política duradera. Teniendo presente que la cultura de la paz juega un papel muy relevante en el progreso económico y democrático de Colombia en el mundo globalizado.

This article examines the global sources of regional transitions from war to peace in two types of region: unstable (war-prone) and stable (not war-prone). I argue that the sources of regional hot wars are regional and domestic rather than global. Similarly, the possibility of reaching a high-level `warm peace' (i.e. conflict resolution) depends on regional and domestic forces. Accordingly, there is only limited influence of competing great powers on stable regions which are not war-prone. Yet, global factors can make a difference with regard to unstable war-prone regions depending on the type of great-power engagement. The great powers can bring about a lower level of `cold peace' through conflict reduction if the great-power intervention in war-prone regions is hegemonic or cooperative. If, however, the type of great-power regional engagement is competitive, then the great powers play a permissive or even aggravating role with respect to the local violence in such regions. At the same time, great-power competition can bring about regional-war termination, which, in the absence of effective conflict resolution or peacemaking, leads to a regional cold war. Great-power hegemony or concert can also increase the likelihood of a transition to warm peace in stable regions, especially if they are populated by young democracies. The article applies the thesis to regional-war termination by the superpowers in the Middle East during the Cold War era. I also discuss the effects of US hegemony on the emergence of cold peace in the Middle East. The pacifying effects of great-power concert and hegemony were also shown in another war-prone region - the Balkans during the 19th and 20th centuries. Finally, both the contribution of international factors to regional peace, and the limitations of this contribution, can be seen in the post-World War II transition of Western Europe to warm peace.