Structural reforms and economic performance in advanced and developing countries
In: Occasional paper 268
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In: Occasional paper 268
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In: Books
Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Overview -- I ADDRESSING FINANCIAL SECTOR WEAKNESSES -- 2 Current Issues Facing the Financial Sector -- 3 Banks and Credit in Japan -- II CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS -- 4 The Resolution and Collection Corporation and the Market for Distressed Debt in Japan -- 5 Structural Reforms, Information Technology, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects -- III FISCAL POLICY CHALLENGES -- 6 Population Aging: Its Fiscal and Macroeconomic Implications -- 7 Fiscal Policies During the Demographic Transition -- 8 Fiscal Policy: An Evaluation of Its Effectiveness -- IV MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN JAPAN -- 9 The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan -- 10 Monetary Policy in a Deflationary Environment -- 11 The Yen-Dollar Rate: Have Interventions Mattered? -- V JAPAN AND ASIA -- 12 The Impact of Japanese Economic Policies on the Asia Region.
In: IMF Working Papers
This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency is much weaker, however, at high debt levels. These findings suggest that many industrial and emerging market economies, including several where fiscal solvency has been the subject of recent debates, appear to conduct fiscal policy responsibly. Yet our results cannot rejec
In: IMF Working Papers
In: IMF working paper WP/08/59
We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define ""growth spells:"" periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for durati
In: IMF Working Papers
A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems-broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality-may not now be binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in
Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Empirical Methodology -- A. Country-level analysis -- B. Industry-level analysis -- III. Results -- A. Aggregate Results -- IV. Conclusion -- References -- List of Tables -- 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis -- 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis -- 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis -- 4. List of Industries -- 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis -- 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs -- List of Figures -- 1. The Effect of Tariffs -- 2. The Effect of Tariffs - Tariff Increases vs. Decreases -- Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies -- 3. The Effect of Tariffs - Expansions vs. Recessions -- 4. Robustness for Output -- 5. Robustness for Productivity -- 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data -- Appendices -- I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes -- II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation -- V. Instrumental Variable -- Endnotes
In: IMF Working Papers
Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EMEs have become more financially integrated, factors related to the magnitude of potential capital outflows have gained in importance. Reserve accumulation as a by-product of undervalued currencies has also become more important since the Asian crisis. Correspondingly, using quantile regressions, we find that the reason for holding reserves varies according to the country's position i
While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of the observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization, and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.
BASE
Inequality has drastically increased in many countries around the globe over the past three decades. The widening gap between the very rich and everyone else is often portrayed as an unexpected outcome or as the tradeoff we must accept to achieve economic growth. In this book, three International Monetary Fund economists show that this increase in inequality has in fact been a political choice-and explain what policies we should choose instead to achieve a more inclusive economy.Jonathan D. Ostry, Prakash Loungani, and Andrew Berg demonstrate that the extent of inequality depends on the policies governments choose-such as whether to let capital move unhindered across national boundaries, how much austerity to impose, and how much to deregulate markets. While these policies do often confer growth benefits, they have also been responsible for much of the increase in inequality. The book also shows that inequality leads to weaker economic performance and proposes alternative policies capable of delivering more inclusive growth. In addition to improving access to health care and quality education, they call for redistribution from the rich to the poor and present evidence showing that redistribution does not hurt growth. Accessible to scholars across disciplines as well as to students and policy makers, Confronting Inequality is a rigorous and empirically rich book that is crucial for a time when many fear a new Gilded Age
Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at both the national and multilateral levels. The current juncture offers a good opportunity to take stock of this body of research by IMF staff and to share it with a wider audience, particularly since few collections have been published in this area. This volume brings together some of the best writing
In: Occasional papers $lOccasional paper no. 270
The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the
World Affairs Online
In: Occasional papers Occasional paper no. 254
This paper focuses on what countries can do on their own-that is, on the role of domestic policies-with respect to country insurance. Member countries are routinely faced with a range of shocks that can contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and, in extreme cases, to economic crises. The presence of such risks underlies a potential demand for mechanisms to soften the blow from adverse economic shocks. For all countries, the first line of defense against adverse shocks is the pursuit of sound policies. In light of the large costs experienced by emerging markets and developing countries as a result of past debt crises, fiscal policies should seek to improve sustainability, taking into account that sustainable debt levels seem to be lower in emerging and developing countries than in advanced countries. Although much can be accomplished by individual countries through sound policies, risk management, and self-insurance through reserves, collective insurance arrangements are likely to continue playing a key role in cushioning countries from the impact of shocks
In: Occasional Papers v.Occasional Paper No. 261
The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economie