Suchergebnisse

The aim of the article is to determine the effect of the exclusion of the 'solo-mobile' population on the accuracy of electoral predictions conducted with telephone surveys in Spain. To this end, data from the 2012 Andalusian regional elections are analysed, in which all pre-election polls failed to predict. In line with similar international research, the data also show that the lack of coverage is very structured around important socio-demographic variables which suggest that this problem could be biased in measuring other topics of interest to social and political research in our country. ; This article analyses the effects that excluding the Cell Phone-only Population (CPO) has on the accuracy of pre-election telephone surveys in Spain. The data were taken from the 2012 Andalusia Regional Election, where all poll-based forecasts failed. Our results show how using only landlines contributed to significant biases in voting estimates, where votes for the right-wing party (PP) were overestimated and votes for the left-wing parties (PSOE and IU) were underestimated. Moreover, and consistently with similar studies carried out in other countries, our analysis shows how under-coverage is clearly structured along important socio-demographic variables. This means that under-coverage could be causing bias in the measurements of other subjects that are important for social and political research in Spain. ; The aim of the article is to determine the effect of the exclusion of the 'solo-mobile' population on the accuracy of electoral predictions conducted with telephone surveys in Spain. To this end, data from the 2012 Andalusian regional elections are analysed, in which all pre-election polls failed to predict. In line with similar international research, the data also show that the lack of coverage is very structured around important socio-demographic variables which suggest that this problem could be biased in measuring other topics of interest to social and political research in our country. ; El objetivo del ...

El objetivo del artículo consiste en determinar el efecto que tiene la exclusión de la población «solo-móvil» sobre la precisión de las predicciones electorales realizadas con encuestas telefónicas en España. Para ello, se analizan los datos de las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas de 2012, en las que todas las encuestas preelectorales fallaron sus pronósticos. Los resultados demuestran cómo encuestar exclusivamente en fijos produjo sesgos significativos en la estimación de voto, sobrestimando al PP-A y subestimando a PSOE-A e IU-CA. En línea con investigaciones internacionales similares, los datos muestran también que la falta de cobertura está muy estructurada en torno a importantes variables sociodemográficas que apuntan a que este problema podría estar produciendo sesgos en la medición de otros temas de interés para la investigación social y política en nuestro país. ; This article analyses the effects that excluding the Cell Phone-only Population (CPO) has on the accuracy of pre-election telephone surveys in Spain. The data were taken from the 2012 Andalusia Regional Election, where all poll-based forecasts failed. Our results show how using only landlines contributed to significant biases in voting estimates, where votes for the right-wing party (PP) were overestimated and votes for the left-wing parties (PSOE and IU) were underestimated. Moreover, and consistently with similar studies carried out in other countries, our analysis shows how under-coverage is clearly structured along important socio-demographic variables. This means that under-coverage could be causing bias in the measurements of other subjects that are important for social and political research in Spain.

El objetivo del artículo consiste en determinar el efecto que tiene la exclusión de la población «solo-móvil» sobre la precisión de las predicciones electorales realizadas con encuestas telefónicas en España. Para ello, se analizan los datos de las elecciones autonómicas andaluzas de 2012, en las que todas las encuestas preelectorales fallaron sus pronósticos. Los resultados demuestran cómo encuestar exclusivamente en fijos produjo sesgos significativos en la estimación de voto, sobrestimando al PP-A y subestimando a PSOE-A e IU-CA. En línea con investigaciones internacionales similares, los datos muestran también que la falta de cobertura está muy estructurada en torno a importantes variables sociodemográficas que apuntan a que este problema podría estar produciendo sesgos en la medición de otros temas de interés para la investigación social y política en nuestro país.

The use of probability-based panels that collect data via online or mixed-mode surveys has increased in the last few years as an answer to the growing concern with the quality of the data obtained with traditional survey modes. However, in order to adequately represent the general population, these tools must address the same sources of bias that affect other survey-based designs: namely under coverage and non-response. In this work, we test several approaches to produce calibration estimators that are suitable for survey data affected by non response where auxiliary information exists at both the panel level and the population level. The first approach adjusts the results obtained in the cross-sectional survey to the population totals, while, in the second, the weights are the result of two-step process where different adjusts on the sample, panel, and population are done. A simulation on the properties of these estimators is performed. In light of theory and simulation results, we conclude that weighting by calibration is an effective technique for the treatment of non-response bias when the response mechanism is missing at random. These techniques have also been applied to real data from the survey Andalusian Citizen Preferences for Political Decision-Making Procedures.

Although previous work has shown the complexity of motives behind the VOX vote, its emergence is often associated mainly with the Catalan conflict. Our analysis shows that VOX's first electoral success was marked importantly by preferences related to territorial conflict, but also by opposition to immigration, authoritarianism or ideology. The main contribution of the paper lies in demonstrating something that until now had not been empirically verified: the relevance of anti-feminist attitudes amongst the VOX electorate. This shows how, since its onset, these voters have not been so different from voters of other European radical right-wing parties, and how VOX has channelled into elections the reaction against different expressions of a more diverse and egalitarian society.

Our understanding of participatory processes is increasing rapidly. However, one area that has received sparse attention is the impact of the proposals from participatory processes on the policy and practice of public administrations. Which proposals are converted into actual policy and practice; which are modified or simply ignored? The field lacks a systematic understanding of the fate of proposals. This paper reflects on the methodological strategy adopted by the Cherry-picking project to analyze the fate of proposals from participatory processes in Spanish municipalities. The innovative project studied the impact of 611 proposals from 39 participatory processes across 25 municipalities. The paper not only describes and discusses the methodological challenges faced by the project, but also presents preliminary findings and a review of the substantive lessons learned through the design and fieldwork process.

Peer reviewed ; © 2020 by the authors. The use of probability-based panels that collect data via online or mixed-mode surveys has increased in the last few years as an answer to the growing concern with the quality of the data obtained with traditional survey modes. However, in order to adequately represent the general population, these tools must address the same sources of bias that affect other survey-based designs: namely under coverage and non-response. In this work, we test several approaches to produce calibration estimators that are suitable for survey data affected by non response where auxiliary information exists at both the panel level and the population level. The first approach adjusts the results obtained in the cross-sectional survey to the population totals, while, in the second, the weights are the result of two-step process where different adjusts on the sample, panel, and population are done. A simulation on the properties of these estimators is performed. In light of theory and simulation results, we conclude that weighting by calibration is an effective technique for the treatment of non-response bias when the response mechanism is missing at random. These techniques have also been applied to real data from the survey Andalusian Citizen Preferences for Political Decision-Making Procedures. The work was supported by the Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad, Spain, under Grant MTM2015-63609-R.