Non-mobile population and election estimate in Spain. The case of the Andalusian elections of 2012 Cell Phone-only Population and Election Forecasting in Spain: The 2012 Regional Election in Andalusia ; Población solo-móvil y estimación electoral en España. El caso de las elecciones andaluzas de 201...
The aim of the article is to determine the effect of the exclusion of the 'solo-mobile' population on the accuracy of electoral predictions conducted with telephone surveys in Spain. To this end, data from the 2012 Andalusian regional elections are analysed, in which all pre-election polls failed to predict. In line with similar international research, the data also show that the lack of coverage is very structured around important socio-demographic variables which suggest that this problem could be biased in measuring other topics of interest to social and political research in our country. ; This article analyses the effects that excluding the Cell Phone-only Population (CPO) has on the accuracy of pre-election telephone surveys in Spain. The data were taken from the 2012 Andalusia Regional Election, where all poll-based forecasts failed. Our results show how using only landlines contributed to significant biases in voting estimates, where votes for the right-wing party (PP) were overestimated and votes for the left-wing parties (PSOE and IU) were underestimated. Moreover, and consistently with similar studies carried out in other countries, our analysis shows how under-coverage is clearly structured along important socio-demographic variables. This means that under-coverage could be causing bias in the measurements of other subjects that are important for social and political research in Spain. ; The aim of the article is to determine the effect of the exclusion of the 'solo-mobile' population on the accuracy of electoral predictions conducted with telephone surveys in Spain. To this end, data from the 2012 Andalusian regional elections are analysed, in which all pre-election polls failed to predict. In line with similar international research, the data also show that the lack of coverage is very structured around important socio-demographic variables which suggest that this problem could be biased in measuring other topics of interest to social and political research in our country. ; El objetivo del ...