Tullock (1971) demonstrated that the causes of political rebellion are perhaps more to do with private expected utility than collective discontent. There is much to suggest that pecuniary motivation plays a large part in the Northern Ireland (NI) conflict given the substantial amount of 'black market' activity which is present. This paper therefore puts forward an economic model of the NI paramilitaries blending their gangster and political activities which are commonly geared to earn revenue. From this model an explanation from an economic perspective emerges as to why a cease‐fire may occur and why it is unstable. The implications of the model are then investigated, with particular reference to conflict solutions arising from the economic model rather than political diplomacy.
After 20 years of heavy fighting in Northern Ireland, a peace process started in 1988. The fighting went on, with some interruptions, for another 9 years; but during this time there was a long series o;f back-channel communications and conciliatory signals that led to a cease-fire, negotiations, and a peace settlement. The dynamics of this peace process are analyzed by means of the author's readiness theory, which attributes the process to (a) Irish Republican Army and British discouragement about the likelihood of a military victory, (b) pressure from allies of both these parties, (c) growing optimism about the success of negotiation, and (d) the emergence of a broad central coalition that embraced most of the political groups in Northern Ireland.
A series of experimental studies examined various identity polarities (Catholic/Protestant, Irish/British, and nationalist/unionist) relevant to the majority and minority communities in Northern Ireland. Subjects allocated themselves to one group within a polarity and awarded points on a series of matrices to anonymous others identified solely on the basis of group membership. Results suggested that the Catholic and nationalist identities had a similar impact for minority group members over time, whereas the Protestant and unionist identities had a differential impact for majority group members over time. This latter effect was related to the context implied by the identity label. Qualitative data gathered from interviews with political activists suggested some continuities with the experimental data. Political activists from minority group parties adhered to a single identity label, but offered competing meanings for that label. By contrast, activists from majority group parties adhered to competing identity labels which could be related to different contexts for that group. The paper emphasizes the dynamic nature of identity and argues for an eclectic use of theory and method in the analysis of social conflict.
James Loughlin, The Ulster Question since 1945 (London: Macmillan, 1998), 151 pp., £10.99 (pb), ISBN 0–333–60616–7.David Harkness, Ireland in the Twentieth Century. Divided Island (London: Macmillan, 1996), 190 pp., £9.99 (pb), ISBN 0–333–56796–X.Thomas Hennessey, A History of Northern Ireland, 1920–1996 (London: Macmillan, 1997), 347 pp., £12.99 (pb), £40.00 (hb), ISBN 0–333–73162–X.Brian A. Follis, A State Under Siege. The Establishment of Northern Ireland, 1920–1925 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1995), 250 pp., £35.00 (hb), ISBN 0–198–20305–5.Dermot Keogh and Michael H. Haltzel, eds., Northern Ireland and the Politics of reconciliation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), 256 pp., £35.00 (hb), ISBN 0–521–44430–6.William Crotty and David Schmitt, eds., Ireland and the Politics of Change (London/New York: Longman, 1999), 264 pp., £17.99 (pb), ISBN 0–582–32894–2.David Miller, ed., Rethinking Northern Ireland. Culture, Ideology and Colonialism. (London/New York: Longman, 1999), 344 pp., £17.99 (pb), ISBN 0–582–30287–0.Anthony D. Buckley and Mary Catherine Kenney, Negotiating Identity: Rhetoric, Metaphor, and Social Identity in Northern Ireland (Washington: Smithonian Institution Press, 1996), 270 pp., £34.75 (hb), ISBN 1–560–98520–8.John D. Brewer, with Gareth I. Higgins, Anti-Catholicism in Northern Ireland, 1600–1998: the mote and the beam (London: Macmillan, 1998), 248 pp., £16.99 (pb), ISBN 0–333–74635–X.During the last three decades, and accompanying the 'troubles', the literature on Northern Ireland has mushroomed. Within the last ten years two surveys have attempted to summarise and categorise the major interpretations. John Whyte's Interpreting Northern Ireland covered the 1970s and 1980s and came to the conclusion that traditional Unionist and nationalist interpretations, with their emphasis on external, that is British and Irish, forces as the cause for the problem, had begun to lose out to 'internal conflict' interpretations. He felt, however, that this approach, too, was coming to the end of its usefulness, and he expected the emergence of a new paradigm shortly.
