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"This book solves one of the great puzzles of history: why did the West become the most powerful civilization in the world? Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita explains the consolidation of power in the West through a single, little noticed event: the 1132 Concordat of Worms. Bueno de Mesquita makes a deeply researched and persuasive case that the Concordat changed the terms of competition between churches and nation-states, incentivizing economic growth and benefiting citizens over kings and popes. In the centuries since, those countries that have had similar arrangements have been consistently better off than those that did not"--

Reveals the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, to detail the system of calculation that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move

What will it take to put you in this car today? -- Game theory 101 -- Game theory 102 -- Bombs away -- Napkins for peace : defining the question -- Engineering the future -- Fast-forward the present -- How to predict the unpredictable -- Fun with the past -- Dare to be embarrassed! -- The big sweep : the history of worms or bali-high, bali-low

El fragmento de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, expone los principios y líneas generales que fundamentan la Teoría de la Elección Racional y su aplicación a las Relaciones Internacionales. Partiendo de la idea de que la atención debe ponerse, no sobre los estados, sino sobre los líderes políticos ?motivados por intereses personales y no nacionales, como es el deseo de mantenerse en el poder? y los procesos de toma de decisiones; Bueno de Mesquita cuestiona las asunciones de paradigmas previos en torno a la separación del ámbito nacional e internacional. Asimismo, expone como los líderes políticos, influidos por tres conceptos clave como son el poder, las preferencias y las percepciones, toman decisiones y se coordinan entre ellos, utilizando interacciones estratégicas ; This Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's fragment sets out the principles and general lines that support the Rational Choice Theory and its application to International Relations. Starting with the idea that we must pay attention, not to Nation States, but to Political Leaders ?motivated by personal interests, not national ones, such as their wish to stay in office?, and Decision Making Processes; Bueno de Mesquita challenges the assumptions of previous paradigms related to the separation among the National and International scene. He also states how the Political Leaders, influenced by three key concepts, such as power, preferences and perceptions, take decisions and coordinate their foreign policy actions, using strategic interactions

A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model's underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.

El fragmento de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, expone los principios y líneas generales que fundamentan la Teoría de la Elección Racional y su aplicación a las Relaciones Internacionales. Partiendo de la idea de que la atención debe ponerse, no sobre los estados, sino sobre los líderes políticos ?motivados por intereses personales y no nacionales, como es el deseo de mantenerse en el poder? y los procesos de toma de decisiones; Bueno de Mesquita cuestiona las asunciones de paradigmas previos en torno a la separación del ámbito nacional e internacional. Asimismo, expone como los líderes políticos, influidos por tres conceptos clave como son el poder, las preferencias y las percepciones, toman decisiones y se coordinan entre ellos, utilizando interacciones estratégicas.

This Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's fragment sets out the principles and general lines that support the Rational Choice Theory and its application to International Relations. Starting with the idea that we must pay attention, not to Nation States, but to Political Leaders ?motivated by personal interests, not national ones, such as their wish to stay in office?, and Decision Making Processes; Bueno de Mesquita challenges the assumptions of previous paradigms related to the separation among the National and International scene. He also states how the Political Leaders, influenced by three key concepts, such as power, preferences and perceptions, take decisions and coordinate their foreign policy actions, using strategic interactions. ; El fragmento de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, expone los principios y líneas generales que fundamentan la Teoría de la Elección Racional y su aplicación a las Relaciones Internacionales. Partiendo de la idea de que la atención debe ponerse, no sobre los estados, sino sobre los líderes políticos ?motivados por intereses personales y no nacionales, como es el deseo de mantenerse en el poder? y los procesos de toma de decisiones; Bueno de Mesquita cuestiona las asunciones de paradigmas previos en torno a la separación del ámbito nacional e internacional. Asimismo, expone como los líderes políticos, influidos por tres conceptos clave como son el poder, las preferencias y las percepciones, toman decisiones y se coordinan entre ellos, utilizando interacciones estratégicas.