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Episode 471 of the Cyberlaw Podcast

In a recent interview, Pope Francis took stock of the war in Ukraine. "The strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates," the pope told Swiss media. The comment led to derision from Ukraine and its Western supporters, who saw in the pontiff's message a call to capitulate. (We'll leave aside the fact that, behind closed doors, some European diplomats are reportedly warming to the idea of a negotiated end to the war.)Pope Francis offered an easy target for criticism by referring to a white flag, the traditional symbol of surrender. But one of his key messages actually was, "Don't be ashamed to negotiate before things get worse." Pope Francis has often referred to the Ukrainian people as martyrs in this war; suggestions that his words are a gift to Putin are misguided and confuse his anti-war instincts for support of Russia's war effort.Pope Francis noted that "the word negotiate is a courageous word." Pierre Hazan, a senior adviser with the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and author of a new book on conflict mediation, would probably agree. Hazan cut his teeth as a journalist covering the Bosnia War and other conflicts before putting down the pen to take an active role in armed conflict negotiations. One of these was the peace process in the Basque Country that led the terrorist group Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) to lay down its arms. In "Negotiating with the Devil: Inside the World of Armed Conflict Mediation," the Swiss mediator mounts a strong defense of the importance of negotiation in the middle of a conflict.Before extolling the virtues of talks, Hazan acknowledges the potential pitfalls. Among other things, negotiations risk being manipulated by one of the parties. The author provides the example of the Munich Conference in 1938, which became the antechamber of Adolf Hitler's march on the European continent. There is also the possibility that talks become a smokescreen for violence. Hazan mentions here the Norwegian-led mediation between the Sri Lanka government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), a group of ruthless insurgents fighting for a Tamil state. When the Sri Lankan government wiped out the LTTE in a final offensive in 2009, it also killed around 40,000 civilians in the process. On rare occasions, the problem is not that negotiations end up facilitating carnage but that there is simply no partner willing to talk. That is the case of ISIS or the extinct Shining Path in Peru, explains the Swiss mediator.These difficulties notwithstanding, for Hazan, the key question remains whether "negotiating with war criminals—including the worst of them—might save lives." To this, he replies that "with very few exceptions, the answer is yes, of course." Those who mediate in armed conflicts are forced to consider possibilities that are far removed from ideals of justice in the search for the least bad option, argues Hazan. This became more complicated after the 9/11 attacks, when President Bush declared a "War on Terror," and the room for negotiations with warring states, rebel groups, or terrorist organizations narrowed down dramatically. In this new context, remarks Hazan, "mediation, previously lauded, was pushed aside in favour of military solutions."If total victory over terrorists and rogue states was, as Bush suggested, both just and within reach, then there was little need for negotiation in this new world. If the goal was to export democracy and eliminate terrorism once and for all, Bush failed spectacularly on both accounts. By then, however, the world had already been defined in good-versus-evil terms. Thus, to conduct badly needed talks with the evil side of this simplistic equation (be it Iran, North Korea, or the Taliban) would have been seen as treason to our highest ideals. The U.S., with European countries often following suit, promoted a new paradigm according to which mediation was "perceived as an admission of weakness," writes Hazan.These dynamics can be observed in the case of former United Nations diplomat Álvaro de Soto, who resigned his position as envoy for the Middle East Peace Process in May 2007. After Hamas won the 2006 Palestinian elections, the international community halted direct funding to the Palestinian Authority. The rationale was that this would apply pressure on Hamas to recognize the state of Israel and renounce violence. The consequence was not a moderation in Hamas' positions but a steep increase in poverty among Palestinians and a deterioration of public services.De Soto opposed the aid blockade on Palestinians but had little room to maneuver, as the Peruvian diplomat himself explained in a secret report written before handing in his resignation. In the (subsequently leaked) report, de Soto argued U.S. pressure had "pummelled into submission" the U.N.'s role as a neutral mediator in the Middle East. As Hazan explains, one of the biggest obstacles for de Soto was that his superiors forbade him to continue talks with Hamas or the Syrian government.Hazan added a preface to the original French edition of his book to cover the events that followed Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7, when the militant group killed 1,200 people and took 240 hostages. Since then, Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip has resulted in the death of at least 31,000 people. Hazan reflects on the Qatar-mediated ceasefire in Gaza that lasted for a week at the end of November 2023. The ceasefire, the author argues, was a historical development for at least two reasons. First, it was probably an unprecedented agreement, as hostages were directly exchanged for ceasefire days. And second, Qatar's role exemplified "the end of Western hegemony over the international system."Whether Western hegemony will be followed by something better is up for debate. However, when Hazan points to Turkey's role in the mediation of the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, or to China's diplomatic efforts leading to the resumption of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, it is easy to recognize a pattern towards a broader plurality in the mediation scene.Hazan offered an interview last month discussing the latest developments in the Ukraine war, which are not included in the book. Hazan explained that he sees two main scenarios for a mediated solution in Ukraine. In the first one, a precarious calm would prevail and there would be a limited ceasefire with Russia and Ukraine technically at war for the foreseeable future. In the second one, what he calls the "Korean model," there would be a demilitarized zone between the two sides with Ukraine obtaining security guarantees and NATO/European Union membership. A more robust mediation process and peace agreement will only happen "if the military or the political situation changes radically either way," he argued.Based on his long-time experience, Hazan notes that "peace is a messy, chaotic business, as is the road that leads to it." There is no sense in negotiating only for negotiations' sake, and mediation is fraught with dangers.Yet experts should not be swayed by the supposed moral certitude of refusing to come to the table. Outright negation of the possibility of talks carries the risk of missing opportunities to settle for the lesser evil even as the greater good fades into the distance.

Even if background check applicants are guilty of wrongdoing, imposing lifetime bans on gainful employment is not a good policy.

The current Congress is "the least productive in our lifetime."

APHA hosted visitors from the National Meat Inspection Services (NMIS) of the Philippines in the summer this year, visiting the UK FAO Reference Centre for AMR. Read more about their experiences in this guest blog.

'I returned home with the weight of the painful images etched into my mind, a haunting memory that will remain with me for a lifetime.'

The Vermont Republican would still trail two predecessors in lifetime gubernatorial service should he win and serve a fifth term.
The post Phil Scott Poised to Climb Gubernatorial Service List appeared first on Smart Politics.

Allowing people to choose what they think is right—not government deciding for everyone—is the essence of liberty. Consistent with his lifetime work, David Boaz made that clear in education long before many of us had written our first word.

Even to get to the point of entering the backlog takes an enormous amount of good fortune, and the lucky few that make it through the labyrinth face the daunting prospect of never actually receiving green cards in decades or even their lifetimes.

Growing gaps in family structure, educational investments, school readiness, test scores, and college entry and completion all make upward economic mobility a more difficult prospect for children born to poor families. Poor children in poor neighborhoods are at an even greater disadvantage. Growing up in an impoverished community doesn't only affect your lifetime earnings –…

The Covid-19 pandemic highlights Malaysia’s social protection challenges in terms of coverage gaps and inadequate benefits. This blog post discusses the need for inclusive social protection systems and advocates for a life cycle approach to ensure that the entire population can overcome social and economic risks throughout their lifetimes. To build back stronger, paradigm shifts … Continued

Louisiana will have another bite at the apple when
Republican Rep. Mike Johnson receives
consideration for the U.S. House of Representative speakership this week.

Upon
the deposing of former Speaker Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy earlier this month,
the House GOP first gave consideration to GOP Rep. Steve Scalise. But several
holdouts within the Republican Conference made it clear to him that he could
not gain the narrow margin necessary to win, and he withdrew his name with
plans to remain as Majority Leader – currently with Hale Boggs the only Louisianans
to serve in that role since it became institutionalized at the start of the 20th
century.

With Scalise ruling himself out, the Conference
then tried to settle on GOP Rep. Jim
Jordan, Judiciary Committee chairman. Another small but different coterie
of Republicans objected to his candidacy – Scalise rejected for not being conservative
enough in being part of a leadership team having to compromise from time to
time (American Conservative
Union rating of 84 in the 117th Congress, 91 lifetime, where 100
means voting for the conservative preference every time), Jordan losing out because
some thought him too conservative (ACU rating of 100 last Congress and lifetime).
At that, the Conference decided to throw the process open to multiple candidates
simultaneously, which later this week may resolve the issue.

Johnson, currently considered the fourth-ranked
member of the party by virtue of being vice chairman of the Conference, announced
with several others that they will vie to replace McCarthy. Only one has a more
prestigious post than he, the now-second-ranked Majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota who entered
Congress a decade ago a term before Johnson. However, Emmer (lifetime 80, last
Congress 73) actually has voted less conservatively than McCarthy or Scalise,
so the discontent of even a few who enthusiastically backed Jordan for his ideological
purity might sink his candidacy.

By contrast, Johnson might be able to thread the
needle. He's seen as conservative enough (92 lifetime, 91 last Congress) and as
personable to bring disparate wings of the party together. But two questions cloud
his chances.

First, the same handful of GOP members distrustful
of the leadership under McCarthy may hold that against him. That fuels the bid
of GOP Oklahoma Rep. Kevin Hern
(lifetime 98, last Congress 100), who is chairman of the party-affiliated
Republican Study Committee, a collection of the majority consistent
conservatives in the party, who argues his recent entrance into the chamber
(third term) and not having held a leadership position leaves him out of
simmering personality conflicts and thus could unite best the party.

The other is the role of an inconvenient geographical
fact; selecting Johnson would give Louisiana the top two positions in the party
and chamber, which never has happened before, magnified by the relative small
size of the Louisiana delegation. Members may balk at that arrangement
funneling vast power to the delegation.

The winner likely would come from these three, with
others probably too junior or too far outside the party power elite, although a
potential dark horse candidate could be Texas' Republican Rep. Pete Sessions, who in
a long career has held important party posts but who a few years ago stepped
back from leadership. Johnson may make history as Louisiana's first Speaker,
capping a remarkable rise in under a decade from crack constitutional lawyer
outside of government to achieving one of the highest elected ranks in American
government.

Earlier this summer, I walked into the Boston Convention Center with thousands milling about and locked eyes with a Black woman who had the kindest smile. As I learned later, she, like me, had been to hundreds of conferences in our lifetimes but we felt shy. The exhibits weren't open yet so we started chatting... Read More
The post Three Take-Aways from the 2023 114th NAACP National Convention appeared first on Interaction Institute for Social Change.

Vladimir Kara-Murza was just 10 years old during the Russian Democratic Revolution in 1991. Witnessing a revolution was a formative experience that led to a lifetime of pro-democracy activism. In 2018, Vladimir sat down with David to discuss Putin's Russia, the importance of the Magnitsky Act and what it's like to put his life on the line for democracy.
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Karl Marx (1818-1883) remains one of the most highly cited authors in academic literature, 140 years after his death. But when did his writing become especially prominent? During his lifetime or after? And how has his prominence trended in recent decades? Philip Magness and Michael Makovi discuss the history and offer some measurements of how … Continue reading The Reputation of Karl Marx and the Soviet Revolution of 1917
The post The Reputation of Karl Marx and the Soviet Revolution of 1917 first appeared on Conversable Economist.