NATO's involvement in strategic stability and arms control: the role and interests of the Baltic States

Abstract

In the last decade, we have been facing an interesting phenomenon. On the one hand, after the end of the Cold War, the topic of strategic stability has lost the interest of academic and analytical research. The threat of a nuclear conflict between the US and Russia declined significantly, and strategic disarmament agreements have been seen as a matter of mutually beneficial habits. On the other hand, after the Russia-Georgia War in 2008 and especially after the Russia-Ukraine War in 2014, a need to review strategic stability and deterrence credibility vis-à-vis Russia appeared as a pressing issue. This applies both to the bilateral US-Russia relationship and to the assurance for extended deterrence: i.e. NATO's role and credibility to deter Russia from potential conflicts in Eastern Europe. The Baltic States have come into focus while modelling scenarios for a potential NATO-Russia conflict and calculating actual needs to provide a credible deterrence in the region.