Semi Markov regime switching interest rate models and minimal entropy measure

Abstract

In this paper, we present a discrete time regime switching binomial-like model of the term structure where the regime switches are governed by a discrete time semi-Markov process. We model the evolution of the prices of zero-coupon when given an initial term structure as in the model by Ho and Lee that we aim to extend. We discuss and derive conditions for the model to be arbitrage free and relate this to the notion of martingale measure. We explicitly show that due to the extra source of uncertainty coming from the underlying semi-Markov process, there are an infinite number of equivalent martingale measures. The notion of path independence is also studied in some detail, especially in the presence of regime switches. We deal with the market incompleteness by giving an explicit characterization of the minimal entropy martingale measure. We give an application to the pricing of a European bond option both in a Markov and semi-Markov framework. Finally, we conclude.