Preventing mass atrocities: policies and practices

What can be done to warn about and organize political action to prevent genocide and mass atrocities? The international contributors to this volume are either experts or practitioners, often both, who have contributed in substantial ways to analyzing high risk situations, recommending preventive policies and actions, and in several instances helping to organize remedial actions. Whereas current literature on the prevention of genocide is theoretically well grounded, this book explores what can be done, and has been done, in real-world situations. Recommendations and actions are rooted in a generation of experience, based on solid historical, comparative, and empirical research and with a grounding in quantitative methods. This volume examines historical cases to understand the general causes and processes of mass violence and genocide, and engages with ongoing genocidal crises including Darfur and Syria, as well as other forms of related violence such as terrorism and civil conflict. It will be key reading for all students and scholars of genocide, war and conflict studies, human security and security studies in general.

Cover -- Half Title -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- List of illustrations -- List of contributors -- 1. Introduction -- The dawn of comparative genocide research: Historians/ sociologists/psychologists/political scientists -- Definitions: Genocide and mass atrocities -- Differentiating between genocide and mass atrocities and its relevance for prevention -- The genocide debate, past and present: Re-discovering the wheel -- Data on victims of geno/politicide -- The road to explanation: Typologies and hypotheses -- The uses of risk assessments for prevention -- Editor's note -- References -- 2. Genocide and mass atrocities: Can they be prevented? -- Background to genocide -- Current crises -- Post-trauma reconstruction -- Notes -- PART I: Risk Assessment, Early Warning, and Early Response -- 3. Countries at risk of genocide and politicide after 2016 - and why -- An introduction to quantitative analysis of risks of genocidal violence -- Structural variables and early warning indicators as guides to early action -- Early warning models -- The use of risk assessments and early warning models for prevention: Political considerations -- Countries at risk of new genocides or politicides after 2016 -- Notes -- References -- 4. Atrocity crimes as a disease: A statistical approach to early detection -- 1. Introduction -- 2. Risk assessments and early warning of atrocity crimes -- 3. Early detection in epidemiology -- 4. Randomness in count data -- 5. Early detection of systematic atrocity crimes in civil conflicts -- 6. Conclusions and the way forward -- Notes -- References -- 5. Preventing genocides and mass atrocities: Evidence from conflict analysis -- Genocides and mass atrocities: How many? How different? -- Early prevention of genocide and mass atrocities? Evidence from conflict analysis