The Middle East: current situation, perspectives, scenarios and possible roles for the EU

In: Globale Herausforderungen - globale Antworten: eine wissenschaftliche Publikation des Bundesministeriums für Landesverteidigung und Sport, S. 235-241

Abstract

"In dealing with the current situation in the Middle East and future perspectives and scenarios, this study focuses on two main issues: Iran and its quest for a nuclear capability, as well as the Arab/Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Firstly five essential factors for the analysis of the region are identified and serve as a basis for the scenarios in part two. These factors include the worldwide dependence on Middle East oil and gas, the regional discontent as a an explication for the increase in fundamentalist currents, the conflicts between Israel and the Palestinians and Arab countries, as well as Iran's quest for a hegemonic position in the region. After the presentation of these factors, different scenarios for the future of the Middle East are presented, focussing particularly on Iran and the Arab/Palestinian-Israeli conflict. In part three possible roles for the EU in the region are discussed, including advisable initiatives and actions in favour of the stabilisation of the Middle East and the increase in EU's political weight." (author's abstract)