Who can realise their retirement plans?: Poor health and employment crises as factors of exclusion

Abstract

"In our study we investigate whether individuals are able to realise their plans for the timing of retirement. In particular we look at how poor health and the industry-specific relative decline in number of employees ('employment crisis') are related to the discrepancy between actual exit from the labour market and the expected start of pension payments. Such a discrepancy could arise either if a person retires earlier than planned or if he or she leaves the labour market before the beginning of planned retirement for any type of non-employment. The period before retirement is typically the first time in which health problems become so common and widespread throughout the population that health must be regarded as a potential factor leading to unintended early retirement. At the same time, decreasing sector-specific employment will make layoffs more likely, especially for those who are in poor health: an employment crisis should therefore be especially harmful to those individuals who are already less likely to be able to realise their plans for retirement.; Most research until now has examined the age of retirement (or early retirement) as the labour market outcome of interest. The expectations of the individuals in question play only a minor role. By focusing on the expectations of men and women before their retirement, we provide two new aspects to the literature discussing this phenomenon." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))