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"This book solves one of the great puzzles of history: why did the West become the most powerful civilization in the world? Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita explains the consolidation of power in the West through a single, little noticed event: the 1132 Concordat of Worms. Bueno de Mesquita makes a deeply researched and persuasive case that the Concordat changed the terms of competition between churches and nation-states, incentivizing economic growth and benefiting citizens over kings and popes. In the centuries since, those countries that have had similar arrangements have been consistently better off than those that did not"--

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, who set the standard for the scientific approach to international relations, has returned with a reformulated fifth edition of Principles of International Politics, based on extensive reviewer feedback and newly guided by an emphasis on questions about the causes and consequences of war, peace, and world order. More than ever, the strategic perspective in international relations is examined with complete clarity, precision, and accessibility. What hasn't changed is Principles' coverage of the fundamentals of IR. The foundational topics are given sustained treatment: th.

What will it take to put you in this car today? -- Game theory 101 -- Game theory 102 -- Bombs away -- Napkins for peace : defining the question -- Engineering the future -- Fast-forward the present -- How to predict the unpredictable -- Fun with the past -- Dare to be embarrassed! -- The big sweep : the history of worms or bali-high, bali-low

The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not. The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

El fragmento de Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, expone los principios y líneas generales que fundamentan la Teoría de la Elección Racional y su aplicación a las Relaciones Internacionales. Partiendo de la idea de que la atención debe ponerse, no sobre los estados, sino sobre los líderes políticos ?motivados por intereses personales y no nacionales, como es el deseo de mantenerse en el poder? y los procesos de toma de decisiones; Bueno de Mesquita cuestiona las asunciones de paradigmas previos en torno a la separación del ámbito nacional e internacional. Asimismo, expone como los líderes políticos, influidos por tres conceptos clave como son el poder, las preferencias y las percepciones, toman decisiones y se coordinan entre ellos, utilizando interacciones estratégicas ; This Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's fragment sets out the principles and general lines that support the Rational Choice Theory and its application to International Relations. Starting with the idea that we must pay attention, not to Nation States, but to Political Leaders ?motivated by personal interests, not national ones, such as their wish to stay in office?, and Decision Making Processes; Bueno de Mesquita challenges the assumptions of previous paradigms related to the separation among the National and International scene. He also states how the Political Leaders, influenced by three key concepts, such as power, preferences and perceptions, take decisions and coordinate their foreign policy actions, using strategic interactions

A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms competing models in most tests despite the absence of variance on a critical variable in all but nine cases. The more proximate the political setting of the issues is to the new model's underlying theory of competitive and potentially coercive politics, the better the new model does relative to other models tested in the European Union context.