Suchergebnisse

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Overview -- I ADDRESSING FINANCIAL SECTOR WEAKNESSES -- 2 Current Issues Facing the Financial Sector -- 3 Banks and Credit in Japan -- II CORPORATE RESTRUCTURING AND STRUCTURAL REFORMS -- 4 The Resolution and Collection Corporation and the Market for Distressed Debt in Japan -- 5 Structural Reforms, Information Technology, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects -- III FISCAL POLICY CHALLENGES -- 6 Population Aging: Its Fiscal and Macroeconomic Implications -- 7 Fiscal Policies During the Demographic Transition -- 8 Fiscal Policy: An Evaluation of Its Effectiveness -- IV MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN JAPAN -- 9 The Zero-Interest-Rate Floor and Its Implications for Monetary Policy in Japan -- 10 Monetary Policy in a Deflationary Environment -- 11 The Yen-Dollar Rate: Have Interventions Mattered? -- V JAPAN AND ASIA -- 12 The Impact of Japanese Economic Policies on the Asia Region.

This paper looks at fiscal solvency and public debt sustainability in both emerging market and advanced countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional relationship between public debt and the primary fiscal balance, is established in both groups of countries. Evidence of fiscal solvency is much weaker, however, at high debt levels. These findings suggest that many industrial and emerging market economies, including several where fiscal solvency has been the subject of recent debates, appear to conduct fiscal policy responsibly. Yet our results cannot rejec

We identify structural breaks in economic growth in 140 countries and use these to define ""growth spells:"" periods of high growth preceded by an upbreak and ending either with a downbreak or with the end of the sample. Growth spells tend to be shorter in African and Latin American countries than elsewhere. We find that growth duration is positively related to: the degree of equality of the income distribution; democratic institutions; export orientation (with higher propensities to export manufactures, greater openness to FDI, and avoidance of exchange rate overvaluation favorable for durati

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems-broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality-may not now be binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in

Cover -- Contents -- I. Introduction -- II. Empirical Methodology -- A. Country-level analysis -- B. Industry-level analysis -- III. Results -- A. Aggregate Results -- IV. Conclusion -- References -- List of Tables -- 1. Data Sources for Country-level Analysis -- 2. List of Countries in Country-level Analysis -- 3. List of Countries in Industry-level Analysis -- 4. List of Industries -- 5. List of Advanced Economies in Country-level Analysis -- 6. The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Tariffs -- List of Figures -- 1. The Effect of Tariffs -- 2. The Effect of Tariffs - Tariff Increases vs. Decreases -- Advanced Economies vs. Emerging Markets & Developing Economies -- 3. The Effect of Tariffs - Expansions vs. Recessions -- 4. Robustness for Output -- 5. Robustness for Productivity -- 6. The Effect of Tariffs using Industry-level Data -- Appendices -- I. Three Episodes of Tariff Hikes -- II. Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- III. Robustness Results for Unemployment, Inequality, Real Exchange Rate, and Trade Balance -- IV. Results for Consumption and Inflation -- V. Instrumental Variable -- Endnotes

Foreword /Joseph E. Stiglitz --Introduction --Inequality : measures and drivers --Inequality and sustained growth --Structural policies and inequality --Financial globalization and inequality --Austerity and inequality --Central banks and inequality --Technology, robots, and inequality --Remedies for inequality : redistribution --Conclusions.

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EMEs have become more financially integrated, factors related to the magnitude of potential capital outflows have gained in importance. Reserve accumulation as a by-product of undervalued currencies has also become more important since the Asian crisis. Correspondingly, using quantile regressions, we find that the reason for holding reserves varies according to the country's position i

While the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting all countries, output losses vary considerably across countries. We provide a first analysis of robust determinants of the observed initial output losses using model-averaging techniques-Weighted Average Least Squares and Bayesian Model Averaging. The results suggest that countries that experienced larger output losses are those with lower GDP per capita, more stringent containment measures, higher deaths per capita, higher tourism dependence, more liberalized financial markets, higher pre-crisis growth, lower fiscal stimulus, higher ethnic and religious fractionalization, and more democratic regimes. With respect to the first factor, lower resilience of poorer countries reflects the higher economic costs of containment measures and deaths in such countries and less effective fiscal and monetary policy stimulus.

Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at both the national and multilateral levels. The current juncture offers a good opportunity to take stock of this body of research by IMF staff and to share it with a wider audience, particularly since few collections have been published in this area. This volume brings together some of the best writing

The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the

The rapid increase in international trade and financial integration over the past decade and the growing importance of emerging markets in world trade and GDP have inspired the IMF to place stronger emphasis on multilateral surveillance, macro-financial linkages, and the implications of globalization. The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER)--formed in the mid-1990s to provide exchange rate assessments for a number of advanced economies from a multilateral perspective--has therefore broadened its mandate to cover both key advanced economies and major emerging market economie