Suchergebnisse

U radu su sagledani osnovni pravci i intenzitet promena starosne strukture stanovništva SR Jugoslavije, njenih republika i pokrajina u periodu po završetku Drugog svetskog rata. Posebna pažnja je posvećena demografskim determinantama starenja stanovništva, naročito između 1961. i 1991. godine. Za procenu uticaja promena fertiliteta, mortaliteta i spoljnih migracija na transformaciju starosne strukture korišćen je metod projekcija. Analiza je zasnovana na rezultatima simulacije četiri modela stanovništva koja su konstruisana polazeći od inicijalne starosne strukture iz 1961. i na bazi različitih kombinacija pretpostavki o kretanjima fertiliteta i mortaliteta u narednih 30 godina. Efekti promene komponenti demografskog rasta na odvijanje procesa starenja su dobijeni poređenjem starosnih struktura modelskih populacija u 1991. godini. Autor zaključuje da je pad fertiliteta direktno ubrzavao starenje od baze starosne piramide, ali posredno i starenje s vrha. Promene u smrtnosti stanovništva su dvostruko delovale na proces starenja: zbog opadanja smrtnosti mladih one su ga usporavale, a istovremeno su ga ubrzavale zbog produžavanja očekivanog trajanja života starih. Posmatrano u celini, u SR Jugoslaviji je pad mortaliteta u periodu 1961-1991. uzrokovao sporije odvijanje starenja, ali je njegovo dejstvo na promenu starosne strukture stanovništva bitno manjeg značaja od suštinski suprotnog dejstva koje je bilo prouzrokovano promenama fertiliteta. Spoljne migracije tj. negativan migracioni saldo su na nivou SR Jugoslavije imale najmanjeg uticaja na proces starenja. lako je dejstvo migracija vrlo slabo, one su takođe uticale na ubrzanje procesa starenja.

Rather pronounced differences among the republics and provinces were among
the main characteristics of the population development in the former
socialist Yugoslavia. After the dissolution of the federal state, all the
newly formed states were demographically less heterogeneous and changes over
time led to the elimination of the differences among them. The current
political reality has caused the Republic of Serbia (excluding Kosovo and
Metohija) to become more or less homogenous area in demographic terms. The
differences still exist and they are specifically pronounced in some smaller
regional units. The region of Southeastern Serbia, consisting of five
districts (Jablanicki, Nisavski, Pirotski, Pcinjski, Toplicki) attracts
special attention. It includes municipalities that are demographically
rather heterogenous and on republic level they have minimum or maximum
values of the main demographic indicators of fertility, mortality, migration
and age structure. The paper presents the current demographic situation in
Southeastern Serbia, as well as the changes that took place after 1980 on
the municipal level. It is concluded that they have led to the greater
demographic homogenization of that area. Such changes create the conditions
for a more effective population policy. At the same time, so far presented
intraregional differences require differentiated measures at the local
community level, adapted to their specific needs. Also, the paper points to
real difficulties in collecting statistical data, as well as to limitations
and caution regarding the interpretation of results.

À la fin du 20e siècle, les Balkans ont été le théâtre d'événements sans précédent en Europe depuis la Deuxième Guerre mondiale. Guerres avec des millions de réfugiés, chute de régimes politiques, changements de systèmes économiques ; des événements qui ont tous directement altéré les processus et les structures démographiques et, plus particulièrement, les structures ethniques. L'évolution de la taille d'un groupe ethnique dépend de sa natalité, de sa mortalité et du solde des échanges avec les autres groupes, mais elle dépend également des changements dans la déclaration d'appartenance ethnique, de l'émergence de nouveaux groupes et des changements de nom des groupes existants. En dépit de progrès notables dans la couverture statistique de la structure ethnique des populations, il est encore impossible de donner une image ethnique complète des Balkans. Sur la base des résultats disponibles des différents recensements réalisés dans la région au cours des années 1990 et 2000, celle-ci paraît cependant très contrastée. En Croatie, l'homogénéisation est perceptible. En Macédoine, en Albanie, en Grèce et au Monténégro, une certaine hétérogénéité, réelle ou plus ou moins virtuelle, peut être observée. La Bosnie-et-Herzégovine et la Serbie sont des cas particuliers ; si leurs structures ethniques respectives semblent encore globalement très hétérogènes, celles des entités ou provinces qui les constituent sont beaucoup plus homogène aujourd'hui qu'avant 1991.

Background: In the period from 1990 to 2012, there were 32,855 suicides
registered in Serbia, i.e. an average of 1428 deaths per year (18.9 per
100.000 inhabitants). The suicides were the most frequent in the early 1990s,
less frequent during the 2000s, and least frequent in the last three years of
the observed period (2010-2012 - an average of 1237 suicides per year).
Objective: The goal of this paper is to evaluate the seasonal variations of
suicides in Serbia in the period of 1990-2012, their changes, as well as the
accordance with findings from other countries. Method: In the paper are used
"classical" statistical methods of evaluating cyclical variations (?2-test,
Edwards' test) as well as some frequently used newer methods (e.g. the
peak-low ratio). It also introduces a new indicator of the intensity of
monthly variations in suicides (the magnitude of trimester variations of /12/
moving consecutive months index - the MtMV index). Seasonality of suicides is
also observed by sex. Results: The results of the research of seasonality
confirm that certain cyclical variations in mortality due to suicide are also
present in Serbia. Observed by season, suicides are most frequent in spring
and summer and less in winter. The cyclical nature was also clearly confirmed
by month. Suicides are most frequent in "warm" months (April-August) and far
less frequent in "cold" months (December-February). By month, suicides are
most frequent in May, while the maximal average number of suicides per day
was calculated for June (21 % higher than the average for 1990-2012).
December is singled out as the month with the lowest number as well as lowest
daily average of suicides (25 % lower than the average). Conclusion: The
cyclical nature of suicides is clearly notable during the entire observed
period and no significant fluctuations or decrease in the intensity of the
variation were observed. Regardless of the method of analysis, the resulting
conclusions are identical regarding the cyclical nature of the variations and
the temporal characteristics of suicides in Serbia at the end of the 20th and
the beginning of the 21st century. At the aggregate level there are no
significant differences in seasonal variations of suicides committed by men
and women. Changes also developed in parallel and in the same direction for
both sexes.

The results of the 2011 Census confirm that Serbia is still among countries
with the oldest population in Europe. Persons aged 65+ out?numbered those
under the age of 15 by 20% (17.4% versus 14.4%), and the median age was 42.7
years. Population ageing has continued, but it was slower in the intercensal
period of 2002-2011 than during the 1980s and 1990s. Population ageing in
Serbia has not only continued but is also widespread at all territorial
levels. According to the 2011 Census, in all four statistical regions (NUTS
2), people aged 65 or older outnumbered those under the age of 15 and, in
comparison to 2002, regional differences in the key indicators of population
ageing increased. Heterogeneity is more present at lower territorial levels
(cities/municipalities) with the least favourable age structure which will be
pointed out. This paper also explores trends of components of population
dynamics in the intercensal period 2002-2011, as well as causal relationship
with the change of the age structure. Current demographic trends (low
fertility, negative natural increase, net emigration) and very old age
structure severely limit the spectrum of future demographic changes both in
the medium and especially in the short term. The situation is particularly
influenced by the entrance of the large baby boom generation in the elderly
ages. Explorations of future population trends are conducted based on the
author?s own demographic projections for Serbia until 2061 (revision 2014).

The results of the 2002 census deepened our insights into a very intensive immigration of the population into Vojvodina, primarily refugees. At the same time, there also occurred significant emigration movements which still had a much weaker intensity than the immigrational ones. The census statistics only partly included emigration, so the paper used indirect methods to acquire as comprehensive estimate as possible about the scope and character of the emigration of the Vojvodina population in the inter-census period 1991-2002. The results of the estimates indicate that in the period the total net emigration was 73 thousand inhabitants, which is 4 thousand persons less than in the preceding inter-census period. At the same time the net immigration was increased for about 3,5 times (from 62 thousand to 213 thousand). The paper points out to the basic characteristics of the emigration (local, inter-municipal, external). Special attention was paid to the regional aspect of migrations (net immigration, net emigration and migration score) in order to determine if there was a close interdependence between the number of the immigrated and emigrated persons in the municipalities. The paper also analyzed the influence of migrations on the process of demographic ageing and change in the national structure of the population.

Nema.

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The article deals with the replacement of generations in Serbia, its dynamics
in the second half of the 20th century, and the importance of direct
determinants. It points to the major regional differences in the domain of
the population reproduction among the large areas of Serbia (Central Serbia,
Vojvodina, and Kosovo-Metohija). Two approaches of demographic analysis were
applied: period and cohort analysis. Basic indicators, definitions, and
shortcomings were presented. The results of the period analysis indicate
that up until 1988 (with the exceptions of 1957 and 1981), the fertility in
Serbia constantly reached a level of fertility necessary to ensure the
replacement. Since 1989, the net reproduction rate has constantly been below
unity. In Central Serbia and Vojvodina, the population has not been
reproducing itself for more than 45 years (since 1956). The situation has
been completely different in Kosovo-Metohija, where fertility has been above
the level necessary to ensure reproduction during the entire second half of
20th century. The cohort analysis applied to six chosen generations (birth
cohort of 1950, 1955, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1975) indicates that in Serbia,
only women born in 1960 ensured the replacement. In Central Serbia and
Vojvodina, none of the studied generations succeeded in ensuring the
replacement, while in Kosovo-Metohija all generations did.