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US-Chinese rivalry is becoming the prime mover of global affairs. Though the long-term trajectory of this critical relationship is uncertain, several salient factors are already apparent: pernicious variations of nationalism on both sides; foreign policies that are increasingly shaped by domestic problems; and a growing tendency to allow expectations of future competition to drive the development of grand strategy. If current trends continue, the dynamics of the US-China relationship will further imperil the rules-based international order, with far-reaching consequences well beyond East Asia. ; Die amerikanisch-chinesische Rivalität wird zum wichtigsten Motor globaler Angelegenheiten. Obwohl der langfristige Verlauf der Beziehung ungewiss ist, sind bereits einige zentrale Faktoren erkennbar: verhängnisvolle Variationen des Nationalismus auf beiden Seiten, eine Aussenpolitik, die zunehmend von innenpolitischen Problemen geprägt ist und eine wachsende Tendenz, die Entwicklung aussenpolitischer Strategien von den Erwartungen des künftigen Wettbewerbs leiten zu lassen. Wenn die gegenwärtigen Trends anhalten, wird die Dynamik der Beziehungen zwischen den USA und China die auf Regeln basierende internationale Ordnung weiter gefährden. Dies wiederum hat Folgen weit über Ostasien hinaus. ; ISSN:1664-0667

In this Strategic Trends chapter, Jack Thompson considers the consequences of the Trump administration's new approach to trade policy. He notes that the current system is, in some respects, unfair to the United States and harmful to millions of Americans. He also observes that the United States is powerful enough to extract trade concessions from all of its trading partners, and that there may be some short-term advantages in following such a course of action. However, he argues, the long-term consequences of the administration's attempt to, in effect, partially de-globalize the international economy will be harmful. It will encourage other countries to pursue zero-sum trade policies, undermine the multilateral framework – especially the World Trade Organization (WTO) – which was painstakingly constructed over the course of decades, and make international trade less about rules and efficiency, and more about power. None of this will make the United States or its allies more prosperous. ; In diesem Strategic Trends Kapitel analysiert Jack Thompson die Folgen der neuen US-Handelspolitik. Er stellt fest, dass das aktuelle Handelssystem die Vereinigten Staaten in gewisser Hinsicht benachteiligt und Millionen von Amerikanern schadet. Die Vereinigten Staaten, so Thompson, sind aber mächtig genug, um Zugeständnisse von all ihren Handelspartnern zu erwirken. Obwohl eine solche Strategie kurzfristig Vorteile bringen kann, sind die langfristigen Folgen eines Versuchs, die internationale Wirtschaft zu entglobalisieren, negativ. Andere Länder wären ermutigt, mit Vergeltungsmassnahmen zu reagieren und dies würde den multilateralen Rahmen der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) schrittweise untergraben. Der internationale Handel wäre in Folge dessen weniger von Regeln und Effizienz und mehr von Macht geprägt. Nichts davon würde die Vereinigten Staaten oder ihre Verbündeten wohlhabender machen. ; ISSN:1664-0667

The US' longstanding role of international leadership is under threat. It is struggling to manage external challenges, including great power competition and globalization, and domestic constraints, such as underfunding and mismanagement of the military and diplomatic corps. Unfortunately, prospects for reform are uncertain given the dysfunctionality of the US political system. This should worry European policymakers and will hopefully hasten their efforts to develop a more robust and independent Common Security and Defense Policy. ; ISSN:1664-0667

Support in the United States for the liberal world order is under threat from a combination of profound economic, cultural, and political changes. The election of Donald Trump, and the emergence of his America First credo, underscores the fact that the world can no longer depend upon the US to pursue an internationalist foreign policy. Europe, in particular, would do well to begin planning for a future in which the US is more skeptical of alliances and trade agreements and less willing to provide leadership in addressing international challenges. ; ISSN:1664-0667

Strategic Trends 2019 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a focus on international security. In the first chapter, Jack Thompson considers the consequences of the Trump administration's new approach to trade policy. In his view, the United States is powerful enough to extract trade concessions from all of its trading partners, and there may be some short-term advantages in following such a course of action. In the second chapter, Michael Haas examines the shift between the West and non-Western states in the field of defense technologies. He argues that Western policymakers should act on several fronts to slow the process, while also adapting to a world in which they no longer enjoy substantial military-technological superiority. In chapter three, Jeronim Perović considers the emergence of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a surprisingly robust multilateral organization of post-Soviet states, which is not a Russian puppet, and which cooperates in economic, political, and military matters. Finally, in chapter four, Lisa Watanabe looks as Russia's re-emergence as a power broker in the Middle East and North Africa, with a focus on countries of particular interest to Europe when it comes to security issues, economic ties, and immigration. ; Strategic Trends 2019 bietet eine Analyse wichtiger weltpolitischer Entwicklungen, wobei Fragen der internationalen Sicherheit im Zentrum stehen. Im ersten Kapitel analysiert Jack Thompson die Folgen der neuen US-Handelspolitik. Er stellt fest, dass protektionistische Massnahmen zwar kurzfristig Vorteile bringen können, langfristig allerdings das regelbasierte Handelssystem der WTO untergraben werden. Im zweiten Kapitel untersucht Michael Haas die Verschiebungen zwischen dem Westen und nicht-westlichen Staaten im Bereich Militärtechnologie. Die Politik des Westens sollte versuchen, diesen Prozess zu verlangsamen und sich gleichzeitig an eine Welt anzupassen, in der der Westen militärtechnisch nicht mehr überlegen ist. In Kapitel drei untersucht Jeronim Perović die Entstehung der Eurasischen Wirtschaftsunion (EAEU). Die Führungsrolle innerhalb der EAEU, so Perović, ist ein Eckpfeiler der Strategie Russlands, sich als Grossmacht in Eurasien zu positionieren und im Umgang mit den Vereinigten Staaten und Europa mehr Einfluss zu gewinnen. Im letzten Kapitel analysiert Lisa Watanabe den Wiederaufstieg Russlands als Machtvermittler im Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika. Ein verstärkter Einfluss in dieser Schlüsselregion dient Russland dazu, seinen Status als Grossmacht zu festigen. ; ISSN:1664-0667

In 2016, events such as "Brexit" and the election of Donald Trump in the US have shocked the liberal system, not only because of their specific impact on European and global order, but also because of the sudden speed with which these fundamental changes are occurring. The four chapters of "Strategic Trends 2017" offer early, but informed analyses on the current state and future direction of a very fluid Euro-Atlantic security system. While the foci of the chapters vary and address today's security challenges from various perspectives – from the OSCE world, Trump's America, European defense onto NATO – there are some common themes. While analyzing current trends, all authors emphasize historical processes and old problems that have been gestating for years. This is why the impact on the security policies of European states, of NATO and the EU has been so immense: discussions about marginal modifications of the existing architecture are no longer sufficient. ; ISSN:1664-0667

As has been the trend in recent years, 2017 was characterized by significant changes in international politics, highlighting the growing complexity of the world we live in. Reflections on major developments can be found in the contributions to this year's "Strategic Trends 2018". In the first chapter, Jack Thompson looks at the new foreign policy of the US under President Trump. In his view, the US will remain the most important player in global affairs, but is struggling to adapt to the evolution of the international system and will be more vulnerable than ever to changes in the geopolitical landscape. Managing relations with Russia and China will be among the main challenges that the West will face in the coming years. Brian Carlson therefore examines the China-Russia relationship and its effects on world politics. China is also an important factor in Severin Fischer's chapter on the impacts of technological change in the energy sector. In his view, China will be the dominant player in the world of new and clean technologies, notably solar and batteries. This could be good for development goals and limiting global warming, but not necessarily for the influence of the Western world in other regions. Within this changing international system, calls for improving national resilience across different sectors in states and economies are becoming louder. Tim Prior's chapter examines the growing focus on resilience in Western security policy, particularly with respect to deterring asymmetric threats. ; ISSN:1664-0667

Strategic Trends 2020 offers a concise analysis of major developments in world affairs, with a primary focus on international security. In the first chapter, Jack Thompson explores the main domestic determinants of the US-China rivalry and their implications at the international level. In the second chapter, Michael Haas and Niklas Masuhr show that a military conflict between the US and China is no longer as remote as it once seemed and that both sides are now very actively planning for the eventuality of a major war in the next decade or two. In Chapter 3, Henrik Larsen and Linda Maduz address the implications of China's targeted influence attempts and of its Belt and Road initiative (BRI) for Europe. In the final chapter, Benno Zogg explores the BRI and its potential effectiveness from a regional perspective, focusing on China's potential Eurasian zone of influence. ; Strategic Trends 2020 bietet eine jährliche Analyse wichtiger weltpolitischer Entwicklungen, wobei Fragen der internationalen Sicherheit im Zentrum stehen. In vier Artikeln beschäftigen sich unsere Autoren mit den nationalen Determinanten der Rivalität zwischen den USA und China und deren Auswirkungen auf die internationale Politik, mit dem Gespenst eines Grossmachtkrieges zwischen China und den USA, mit China als Stresstest für die Kohärenz Europas und mit Chinas Politik gegenüber Eurasien im Rahmen der Belt and Road Initiative. ; ISSN:1664-0667

Every year, the CSS analyzes developments in world politics and their potential consequences for Switzerland over the next eight years. This year, we focus on the intensifying great power competition between the United States, China and Russia, as well as Artificial Intelligence as a key technology and a strategic resource. ; Jedes Jahr analysiert das CSS Entwicklungen in der Weltpolitik und deren potentielle Auswirkungen auf die Schweiz im Verlauf der nächsten acht Jahre. Dieses Jahr konzentrieren wir uns insbesondere auf die sich intensivierende Grossmächtekonkurrenz zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten, China und Russland sowie Künstliche Intelligenz als Treiber der Mächtekonkurrenz und zivile und militärische Befähigungstechnologie