Impact of climate policies on carbon price and energy markets ; Impact des politiques climatiques sur le prix du carbone et les marchés de l'énergie

Abstract

National audience This paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil scene, based on simulations of the POLES model. The "carbon value" is the modelling artifice that synthesises the intensity of climate policies. It is the signal that triggers investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are socially responsible to the climate challenge. A comparison of a trend energy scenario with a fourfold split of industrialised countries' emissions by 2050 shows that very ambitious climate policies can both limit climate change and address the issue of depletion of global hydrocarbon resources. ; Based on simulations of the POLES model, this paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil market. The « carbon value » is the modeling device that reflects the relative harshness of climate policies. It represents the signal that triggers socially responsible investments addressing the climate challenge, ie greenhouse gas abatement investments. We compare a Reference energy scenario and a scenario of emission reductions by a factor four in industrialized countries by 2050. The results show that very ambitious climate policies allow both to mitigate climate change and to manage the depletion of world oil resources. ; National audience This paper aims to analyse the interactions between policies to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the fundamentals of the world oil scene, based on simulations of the POLES model. The "carbon value" is the modelling artifice that synthesises the intensity of climate policies. It is the signal that triggers investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are socially responsible to the climate challenge. A comparison of a trend energy scenario with a fourfold split of industrialised countries' emissions by 2050 shows that very ambitious climate ...