Fresh Wind Out of the South: What to Expect from a Binding Nuclear Ban Treaty

Abstract

On the 75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, an overlooked event has shaken nuclear politics. With its 50th ratifier, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW/Ban Treaty) is set to become binding. The pros and cons of that treaty, the possible consequences going forwards, and three possible future scenarios are worthy of analysis.
Until now, nuclear bombs were the only weapons of mass destruction not forbidden by international law. Even though atomic powers hold legal obligations to disarm, progress in that area is slow - if happening at all. The Ban Treaty intends to fill this legal gap and speed up disarmament negotiations.
The TPNW is a polemical treaty. Criticisms range from how broadly its text was framed, to the lack of substance on technical procedures, to who it was who negotiated it. Being a treaty boycotted by nuclear powers, critics point out that it will not have any practical effect whatsoever - and, if somehow so, only a negative one.
Most criticisms overlook the normative foundations of the Ban Treaty, as well as its main target: creating, in the long run, an ideational and social environment that enables a non-nuclear-weapons peace. It should be regarded as one more instrument to pressure for nuclear disarmament and ensure non-proliferation.
The entry into force of the Ban Treaty is, by itself, a relevant event, with consequences for existing disarmament talks. Atomic arsenals will not be immediately dismantled. In the long run, however, increased public and social pressure may lead to an effective stimagitisation of nuclear weapons, rendering a nuclear-free world possible. With an active civil society and being a member of the Atlantic Alliance, Germany is in the position to become a bridge between state parties to and boycotters of the TPNW.