Joe Biden and a New Era of Multilateralism

Abstract

With the inauguration of Joe Biden, the United States once again extends its hand to - relieved but wary - traditional partners and embraces the concept of strategic competition with Russia and China. The European Union sees more room for cooperation especially with China, which may, however, come with significant long-term costs. The hardening of fronts between democratic and authoritarian countries seems likely.
Even though the US wants to "earn back its position of trusted leadership," the EU and other partners have become wary of the North American country's reliability, as the political forces that brought Donald Trump to the presidency remain strong. Further, even though the US is pushing for a tougher stance against China, the EU is rather divided and has vested interests in continuing cooperation.
China and Russia have become increasingly aggressive, as the Crimea annexation, building of artificial islands with military bases in the South China Sea, and border clashes between Indian and Chinese military all showcase. China is increasingly weaponizing its economic power to exert influence on foreign countries such as Australia and continues to deny the existence of human rights abuses at home.
Selective decoupling by the US, and to some extent by the EU, has started. The latter for example recently established the European Raw Materials Alliance to become less dependent on imports.
The search for values-based alliances has begun as well. For instance, France and Germany initiated the Alliance for Multilateralism in 2019 to strengthen the rules-based international order. Partnerships with non-traditional allies from the Global South are crucial to help the multilateral liberal order survive, although it may lead to bloc-building between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
The rise of China will be the key determinant of international politics for decades to come. Continuing to cooperate with the country may come at great risk, as it helps an authoritarian regime to attain the status of global superpower - one that does not share democratic values and dismisses international law. The EU - but also other countries - will likely need to choose between emphasising a values-based or an all-inclusive multilateralism.