Credibility and the U.S. defense of Taiwan: Nullifying the notion of a "Taiwan threat"

In: Issues & studies: a social science quarterly on China, Taiwan, and East Asian affairs, Band 38, Heft 1, S. 200-229

Abstract

Taiwan is not a threat to the United States and cannot compel the United States to enter into military conflict with the People's Republic of China (PRC). Hence, there really is no "Taiwan threat". The United States will use military force to defend Taiwand from an attack by the PRC only if Washington determines that such an intervention serves U.S. interests, especially the intention to appear credible. This is principally a matter of national security. By demonstrating the resolve to act in accordance with what the United States has indicated are its preferences, the United States hopes its credibility will "buy" support from allies and deter challenges by adversaries. Washington's predisposition to act in defense of U.S. credibility offers Taipei - and Beijing - leverage over U.S. policy that either may try to exploit. However, there is no assurance that the leverage will be effective in prying out of Washington the policy that is sought. While the United States may be inclined to support Taiwan, whether it does so or not depends on calculations of interest by American policymakers at the instant that U.S. support is needed. The United States might enter the fray to defend its credibility. Or, competing interests may lead the United States to stand down from the role Washington has assumed in support of Taiwan to advance some other, more pressing, objective. (...)(Issues Stud/DÜI)