Economic conditions and voting behaviour in German federal elections, 1994-2002

In: German politics: Journal of the Association for the Study of German Politics, Volume 13, Issue 2, p. 201-217

Abstract

Although the Iraq crisis and the flood disaster largely determined the political agenda at the end of the 2002 federal election campaign, the economic situation was, once again, one of the most important themes in the context of the election itself. This article examines for the period of 1994 to 2002 whether, and in what measure, the electorate's perception of economic conditions played a role in voters' decisions. Empirical results show that judgements of the economic situation in 2002 were noticeably worse than prior to the last two national elections. Few East-West differences are recognisable in perceptions of current general and individual economic conditions. Differences in retrospective or prospective assessments of the economic situation have also fallen. Regarding the attribution of economic problem solving ability, considerable gains are noted for the CDU/CSU, while the trust in the economic competence of the SPD has decreased. Multivariate analyses show that in 2002 the influence of economic variables on individual voting behaviour was not very strong. Significant effects only occurred in West Germany. Besides the evaluation of the general economic situation, perceived economic competence had the most clearly visible electoral impact. (German Politics / FUB)